Does no one find it concerning that PS5 sales are struggling to keep up with the nearly 8 year old Nintendo Switch?

[MonkeyDNuts]

As you can see here, all consoles have a yearly sales curve, so after their peak year (PS5 had it last fiscal year, so in the current year and the next ones are expected to decrease YoY) their yearly sales decrease as normal in their sales life cycle:

Meaning, PS5 sales aren't 'cratering', they are just following their normal sales cycle. Nothing rare there. That behavior is expected for a console in its current 5th fiscal year (next month will turn 4 years old).


Launch aligned PS5 is performing well against Switch:

These graphs are per fiscal year, so they are updated until March 2024 and will be updated with March 2025 numbers.

Since both PS5 and Switch are in the second part (post peak year) of their life cycle, both are expected to sell in the current fiscal year less than they did in the previous one, as they estimated. Same goes with the Christmas period, PS5 should less than it did last year but still should sell more than Switch.

I appreciate the effort, but you're incorrect and these graphs are a poor attempt at obfuscating the facts.

Lets compare:

Switch Year 3 - 21m sales
Switch Year 4 - 28m sales

PS5 Year 3 - 20.8m sales
PS5 Year 4 - between 13m-17m sales

So yes, PS5 sales have cratered, and no it's not on performing well against the Switch AT ALL.

The PS5 in its 4th year is doing slightly better than the Switch in its 8th (EIGHTH) year

 

[Muddasar]

It's like Sony has completely given up on console sales, just like how Xbox has given up. Which is why I said that Sony have positioned themselves as the new Xbox:

Sony has positioned themselves as the new Xbox.

PS5 = Xbox One
PS5 Pro = Xbox One X
PS6 = Xbox Series X
(Alleged PS6 handheld = Xbox Series S)

I stopped reading after this nonsense.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

It will sell more than Switch but that shouldn't be the bar.

This is a conscious decision from Sony, they have prioritized profits above all else, even if it means sales erosion and negative long-term growth imo

Lifetime? Not a chance. The way things are going, PS5 will tap out at ~ 105 - 110 million lifetime through EOY 2028, and that's assuming there aren't other price increases to come, that GTA6 is the "industry savior" as analysts want to frame it, and SIE doesn't do Day 1 for the big games to PC (Steam) prior to that.

Otherwise, and especially if all three things happen (in the case of GTA6, it'd mean the game underperforming by a decent margin, say 20%-30%), then lifetime PS5 sales could tap out at just 100-105 million. I mean look at it this way; sales are already tracking behind PS4 launch-aligned, they've been 2 million behind PS4 launch-aligned globally, and they've been pushing aggressive sales promos in Europe because that's one of the territories sales have softened more than expected.

I also don't think markets like China are going to be a massive boon to PS5 as some believe, because as long games like BMW are Day 1 on PC, a market whose gaming audience overwhelmingly favors PC, will just go PC for those games. Plus how many more BMWs are SIE expecting over the next four years?

As you can see here, all consoles have a yearly sales curve, so after their peak year (PS5 had it last fiscal year, so in the current year and the next ones are expected to decrease YoY) their yearly sales decrease as normal in their sales life cycle:

Meaning, PS5 sales aren't 'cratering', they are just following their normal sales cycle. Nothing rare there. That behavior is expected for a console in its current 5th fiscal year (next month will turn 4 years old).


Launch aligned PS5, when accumulated is performing well against Switch:

These graphs are per fiscal year, so they are updated until March 2024 and will be updated with March 2025 numbers.

Since both PS5 and Switch are in the second part (post peak year) of their life cycle, both are expected to sell in the current fiscal year less than they did in the previous one, as they estimated (18M for PS5 and 13.4M for Switch). Same goes with the Christmas period, PS5 should less than it did last year but still should sell more than Switch.

If we add to these graphs Sony's projection of 18M PS5 for the current FY and Nintendo's projection of 13.5M Switch for the current FY the graphs would look like this instead:

In accumulated sales launch aligned PS5 would be in April's 1st only a bit under Switch (which now has the handheld market almost in exclusivity), PS4 and (PS5 will outsell its total sales in a couple years or so) Wii. PS5 would be outselling the rest of consoles in gaming history launch aligned.

So it's doing great, specially considering it had the supply constrains issues, that it couldn't cut its price and instead had to increase, that there is a big economical crisis/inflation in many crountries, that half of the PS active userbase is still on PS4 because they have enough with the GaaS that still support and the titles that still are being releasing there (the volume of users there is unusual at this point of the generation).

The PS4>PS5 transition should be bumped once the top selling series (GTA, CoD, EA FC, Fortnite, NBA2K, AC...) stop supporting PS4 and become cuttent gen only and also if they find a way to price cut the console (hard because the components or shipment costs keep rising). Such bump would/will put PS5 launch alligned ahead of PS4, Wii and maybe even Switch in accumulated sales.

The thing you're ignoring here, is that PS5 had a much faster start than PS4, so a lot of SIE's early FY projections (before revisions) assumed that momentum would stick around. Now yes, COVID and the pandemic, alongside chip shortages, happened, and those things affected SIE's ability to satisfy demand via supply.

But that's also around the time SIE started to self-sabotage their hardware demand with both aggressive cross-gen support (HFW, GT7, GOW Ragnarok) and an intensification of their Steam porting strategy to PC (Returnal, GOT, DS: Director's Cut etc.). The fact of the matter is this: as Xbox has seen a massive collapse in console sales globally, by all accounts most of those gains should have been going to PS5.

However, it'd appear a majority of the deserting Xbox customer base, have chosen to turn to PC instead, which would explain the increase in Steam growth specifically (and other things like PC"s market share growth in Japan) while PS5 has remained virtually stagnant with PS4 and is now trailing them behind by some 2 million globally. IMO, if SIE didn't go for the easy bait, and didn't self-sabotage vested interests in their console, PS5 would've been able to maintain the pent-up demand it had during lockdowns longer and would be at least slightly ahead of PS4 globally when launch-aligned. Especially, again, considering the fallout that's happened with Xbox this gen.

Also in terms of comparing PS5's LTD to Switch's, you are ignoring that Switch was VERY under-supplied in the first year or so. It had a somewhat similar issue in terms of low supply relative demand, that PS5 had in 2021 and most of 2022. Had Switch satisfied that demand earlier on, I feel LTD amounts would put it decently higher than where it's already at relative PS5, because Nintendo hasn't engaged in the sort of self-sabotaging strategies (or better to say, methods of implementation of the strategies) the way SIE has with PlayStation.

 

[Yurinka]

I appreciate the effort, but you're incorrect and these graphs are a poor attempt at obfuscating the facts

I'm not incorrect: these graphs are the objective, factual data of how sales are going and how consoles sales cycle behaves.

They don't obfuscate anything, they explain the truth. You can like it or not, but this is what the consoles sold and what Sony and Nintendo estimate to sell in the current fiscal year.

Switch Year 3 - 21m sales
Switch Year 4 - 28m sales

PS5 Year 3 - 20.8m sales
PS5 Year 4 - between 13m-17m sales

To be exact, Sony is estimating 18M for the current FY, not 13-17M. And these would be the 4th and 5th fiscal years, not the 3rd and 4th.

That 28M peak on Switch's 5th fiscal year was an unexpected exception that not even Nintendo predicted. They, like everyone else, was expecting that their 4th FY was going to be their peak fiscal year instead. But the unexpected covid bump happened skyrocketing its sales, in a period that since it was near its peak they had their production lines ready to ship as much units as needed, so they achieved these 28M.

PS5 in the current fiscal year isn't having a Covid bump, so it's nonsensical to expect that it would sell 28M in the current fiscal year.

 

[Danja]

I was concerned last summer when I noticed trends of sales collapsing but I was met with stark attacks on this very forum I'm being a doomer green rat lol. But as of today, not concerned, their sales matches their actions the last 2 years. When you Shit in your own cereal who is gonna want it?

They should be lucky for their brand loyalty because it's the only thing saving them now.

 

[Muddasar]

Lifetime? Not a chance. The way things are going, PS5 will tap out at ~ 105 - 110 million lifetime through EOY 2028, and that's assuming there aren't other price increases to come, that GTA6 is the "industry savior" as analysts want to frame it, and SIE doesn't do Day 1 for the big games to PC (Steam) prior to that.

Otherwise, and especially if all three things happen (in the case of GTA6, it'd mean the game underperforming by a decent margin, say 20%-30%), then lifetime PS5 sales could tap out at just 100-105 million. I mean look at it this way; sales are already tracking behind PS4 launch-aligned, they've been 2 million behind PS4 launch-aligned globally, and they've been pushing aggressive sales promos in Europe because that's one of the territories sales have softened more than expected.

I think Sony will be happy with anything over 100 million.

Considering everything.

Personally I expect this gen to be longer than last and the PS5 will overtake the PS4 lifetime sales.

It needs to sell 55 million in 4 years. Achievable.

 

[Danja]

It will sell more than Switch but that shouldn't be the bar.

This is a conscious decision from Sony, they have prioritized profits above all else, even if it means sales erosion and negative long-term growth imo

You really think PS5 can outsell the Switch? It would take Sony keeping this device on the market for 10 years plus getting it down to $199 for that to happen while never announcing the PS6 before 2030

 

[Danja]

I se the PS3 maybe beating the Wii and PS1 ... But that's it... Definitely not touching the PS4 unless this generation goes on for 8+ years and the price comes down

 

[J_Paganel]

They destroyed the high-profile “Only on PlayStation” brand, neglected the old and new IPs they had (DaysGone, SOCOM, Syphon Filter, and many more), but instead invested in questionable things that turned out to be useless.

Add to this the PC ports that put many PS4 owners off buying PS5, and the total marketing failure that has left all social media filled with negative comments about PS.

PS was bought primarily for the exclusive games, the multiplatform and technical component were secondary (XBOX and PC also have multiplatform games). The PS5 has much better hardware than the PS4, but the games are not great, there are few of them and everyone knows that they will appear on PC.

 

[MonkeyDNuts]

I stopped reading after this nonsense.

How is it nonsense? The parallels are actually striking

I was concerned last summer when I noticed trends of sales collapsing but I was met with stark attacks on this very forum I'm being a doomer green rat lol. But as of today, not concerned, their sales matches their actions the last 2 years. When you Shit in your own cereal who is gonna want it?

They should be lucky for their brand loyalty because it's the only thing saving them now.

Yeah, I can't believe people still tried to lie about supply constraints in 2023. It's a slow burn for sure and Sony's good will is fading more and more with each shortsighted decision.
Spider-Man 2 PC port announcement at the 1 year anniversary when people expected a DLC announcement was rubbing salt in the wound and a wake up call for many, including casuals.

Meanwhile, Nintendo is all about long term strategy. They are polar opposites and the results show.

Add to this the PC ports that put many PS4 owners off buying PS5, and the total marketing failure that has left all social media filled with negative comments about PS.

It's insane how much sentiments have shifted over the last few years. It's next level mismanagement of the brand, feels like Sony has some kind of humiliation fetish this generation.

I'm not incorrect and these graphs are the objective, factual data of how sales are going.

They don't obfuscate anything, they explain the truth.

You tried to insinuate that the PS5s sales collapse is normal and that the Switch experienced the same thing, when the actual data shows the complete opposite. 21m drop to 15m is the same as 21m to 28m growth? Really? Why be disingenuous when we have all the data. Which is why I said it was a poor attempt at obfuscating the truth....

 

[Muddasar]

How is it nonsense? The parallels are actually striking

Only a certain demographic of gamers see them as a coping mechanism.

Go on enlighten us?

Console Sales?
Game sales?
Game quality?
Revenue?
Profits?

 

[MonkeyDNuts]

Only a certain demographic of gamers see them as a coping mechanism.

Go on enlighten us?

Console Sales?
Game sales?
Game quality?
Revenue?
Profits?

I asked you a question, you can't respond with another question. Stop being so emotional, either partake in the discussion like an adult or go away.

 

[SuperPotato]

A doom thread? Haven't seen those in a while. /s

 

[ethomaz]

No price cut... sales will drop in 4th year.
At same period PS4 was already sub $300 and shipped 3.3m.

And at no shock at Black Friday 2017 it reached $199.

Do you believe PS5 will reach $199 this BF?

Edit - Fixed PS4 shipment for the correct quarter.

 

[MonkeyDNuts]

A doom thread? Haven't seen those in a while. /s

an objective analysis hardly counts as dooming.

No price cut... sales will drop in 4th year.
At same period PS4 was already sub $300 and shipped 4.2m.

Not relevant to the discussion, PS4 was actually a good console unlike the PS5.

 

[BillyZ]

A doom thread? Haven't seen those in a while. /s

Well the alternative would be for Sony to do something good for a change but seems unlikely at this point

 

[ethomaz]

Not relevant to the discussion, PS4 was actually a good console unlike the PS5.

It is the sole reason the shipment is behind what it should be lol
And you say it is no relevant?

Price is king for any product sell well.

Europe sales are lacking because Sony rise the price there instead to cut.
Japan and some Asia countries the same.

 

[SuperPotato]

an objective analysis hardly counts as dooming.

This reads like every other "PS is done" thread around here.

 

[Danja]

an objective analysis hardly counts as dooming.



Not relevant to the discussion, PS4 was actually a good console unlike the PS5.

PS5, is the best console ever made if we are being honest

 

[MonkeyDNuts]

No price cut... sales will drop in 4th year.
At same period PS4 was already sub $300 and shipped 4.2m.

And at no shock at Black Friday 2017 it reached $199.

Do you believe PS5 will reach $199 this BF?

It is the sole reason the shipment is behind what it should be lol
And you say it is no relevant?

Price is king for any product sell well.

The discussion is PS5 vs Switch. Why are you editing your post to bring up PS4? lmao...

Price is not king, the Series S was $150 last year and that was the worst holiday season for Xbox ever.

This reads like every other "PS is done" thread around here.

It's a fair question backed by facts, either answer the questions and add to the discussion or go away. Stop trolling please.