Well I can't say anything WRT Flintrock but of that list three of them would be worth playing to me whether they were in GamePass or not, so that's not too bad. But on the other point, about lack of 3P AAA Day 1 games, I still think comments from Take-Two's CEO and Sony's CFO sum it up perfectly both in terms why we don't see many of those games on these services Day 1.
It's simply too costly and that's a big reason MS have just went out and bought publishers instead. If a publisher is worried that Day 1 for their AAA games on the service is going to severely impact sales revenue, remove the worry of sales revenue by just buying the company altogether.
Three of those five games would be day one for me regardless - A Plague Tale Requiem, Flintlock and Stalker 2. Lies of P and Wo Long are games that I would never buy simply because they're souls type games and unless they give me assist options like Steel Rising has done, they're a skip for me. But the other three are guaranteed with or without Game Pass.
But knowing I can play them day one on Game Pass while saving at least $50 each for both Requiem and Stalker 2 (price hasn't been set yet for Flintlock) is huge because I can then put that money towards other games that im 50/50 on but willing to give a chance. For example, I have wordpad documents (and spreadsheets) for my gaming stuff since im not going to remember every detail and one of those documents is what I have labeled as "monetary gaming losses" which is a digital game purchase that I quit/dropped and didn't complete. I have three games. FIST: Forged in Shadow Torch, Returnal and Sword and Fairy: Together Forever. Total being $140. With Gears Tactics, Halo Infinite and A Plague Tale Requiem saving me $150, I come out $10 ahead. Even if I exclude Gears Tactics since I probably wouldn't have bought that game for $60, it wouldn't take me long to get out of the negative.
Flintlock: The Siege of Dawn is a third person action adventure game developed by A44 which previously developed Ashen. Below is the gameplay reveal trailer from the PC Gaming Show this past June which had an extra minute of gameplay compared to the trailer shown during the Xbox & Bethesda Games Showcase. I didn't care for Ashen at all but Flintlock has me very interested in the game.
The lack of third party AAA titles is due to many factors. First, if it's a licensed game like DC/Marvel/Star Wars, the publisher doesn't need to accept a day one Game Pass deal because they know their game will sell 10m+ easily at a minimum. Second, these same publishers can always go to Microsoft a year later when sales rapidly decline and accept a Game Pass deal which would also boost their sales numbers at that time. Third, a lot of publishers probably ask for a shit ton of money and Microsoft looks at it like why pay for example $100m for one AAA game when they could probably get 10 AA games for that price. Fourth, third party publishers outside of EA which doesn't include day one releases on console probably don't want to support Game Pass day one because it's not their own subscription service. And fifth, it depends on what the game, the genre and when it releases. In some cases, I think a Game Pass day one deal can help a game because it's extra marketing and advertising plus if it's a co-op game like Outriders for example, it will make the game bigger with that day one Game Pass deal than without it.
An upcoming AAA title which I think would be perfect for Game Pass due to it's co-op element is Gotham Knights. It's not Rocksteady. Arkham Origins was rated in the 70's if I remember correctly. WB Montreal doesn't have the pedigree of Rocksteady. Batman at least from what has been shown and said isn't playable in the game. I have seen all the gameplay and combat trailers and Batgirl (who majority will probably pass on playing as) who I will be playing as has had by far the best overall gameplay presentations. The other three characters have looked bad.
It releases October 21st. WB moved it up 4 days. They should have moved it up 3 weeks but whatever. A Plague Tale Requiem releases 3 days earlier on October 18th and im expecting it to completely overshadow Gotham Knights as it simply looks better in every aspect. Also, COD MW 2 releases on October 25th (or the 18th for the campaign if you pre-order) which is going to be fucking massive. There's other stuff around it as well but those are the main two games before/after it.
I don't want to say that Gotham Knights will bomb because I don't think it will but I don't see it coming close to the rumored numbers of Arkham Knight which was around 12m as of 2021. A Game Pass day one deal for this game I think could end up being huge for it especially if they end up being a live service game with months of post launch content.
So I believe that it has to do with a lot of varying factors. Last but not least, some publishers just don't want to accept a day one Game Pass deal simply because if they do, some fans may expect them to do that with every game and that publisher probably wouldn't want to do that nor have consumers/fans believe that they will and if they don't, pass on their games at launch.
I don't know about publishers being worried about if a day one game impacts sales revenue because first, all the publisher has to do is refuse second, if they were to accept, they probably have a minimum guaranteed amount based on if they lose projected sales. I believe that publishers accept an upfront payday for the game to be in Game Pass day one and that there's more money on the back end depending on sales numbers. For example, if a game is projected to do 5m in sales in 3 months and the game only does 3.5m in sales, I can see there being a back end payment for maybe half of the 1.5m in lost sales. The upfront money I believe would at worse even it all out. Not only that but unless it's a small Indie studio, I don't see AA or AAA publishers accepting a day one Game Pass deal if they weren't going to at the very least get half of what they're projected to make if not more than half.
Another thing is that I don't believe that Microsoft goes after major AAA third party games for day one release on Game Pass because it's most likely too expensive, they can get many more games for the same amount and if the deal goes bad for the third party publisher, that could leave to issues with Microsoft and their relationship. I see Microsoft as caring more about getting Indies and AA titles across every damn genre known to man in order to keep a shit ton of varied content in the subscription service.
My theory is that once Microsoft's first party studios all get rolling then they won't need third party AAA titles because they'll have a shit ton of their own and instead would fill out the gaps with AA and Indie titles.