I know one guy who did the same but he then sold the PS5. He said he could have waited for Horizon 2 to come to PC.
I dont think either will be a common occurrence honestly.
PlayStation will win this generation in the next 6 months. Here's why.
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I dont think either will be a common occurrence honestly.
I honestly think this stuff ends up being pretty merit based. Gamers are fickle. They will go to the currently hot thing if it has the actual games they want to play. PS1 whooping Nintendo's arse out of the gate(sigh) is proof of that. So if Sony wants to keep "winning" they need to keep executing on games. I'm not sure what the outcome is going to be. They seem to have so many people working on things that are simply not announced. Does anyone have a clue what 2023 looks like for them?
That said, I honestly hope MS does two things. Stop it's reductionist purchasing spree, and start being a third pillar of content that has its own high quality identity. Clearly Nintendo and Sony have their own "identities" when it comes to their first party feel. The best situation is that MS realizes subs are a poor way to support gaming, that removing long standing series from the competition just makes you look like a two faced clown (Phil Spencer's rhetoric at least), and that the best way to growth is to supply original first party games that people feel they simply can't miss out on. I know that last statement is why they are doing the second thing I listed, but it's just the wrong way to do things.
I don't see MS doing any of those things though. Phil obviously doesn't get games otherwise he would have overseen at least one industry defining title over his decade of running things. We aren't even close to seeing that and he continues his greasy used car salesman schtick "Best xbox lineup ever!" (what does that kind of crap even mean? Says who?).
It seems pretty clear that Sony is still more in demand than MS. Looks like more PS5s sold in July and you couldn't find those on the shelves anywhere. But I could have gone and picked up a Series X locally anytime I wanted. They are in stock now. So as soon as PS5 stock grows, it's going to take off in terms of units sold. Considering we are about to hit year 3 of this gen, with no bangers in sight for MS (well actually Hellblade 2 could be cool, and I know there is a lot more that is not revealed yet), I don't see them turning it around at all. The numbers are too slanted in Sony's favor to allow them to catch up. So I don't know to which degree he is right, but the OP is probably right in general.
But again ... all comes down to the software offerings.
That said, I honestly hope MS does two things. Stop it's reductionist purchasing spree, and start being a third pillar of content that has its own high quality identity. Clearly Nintendo and Sony have their own "identities" when it comes to their first party feel. The best situation is that MS realizes subs are a poor way to support gaming, that removing long standing series from the competition just makes you look like a two faced clown (Phil Spencer's rhetoric at least), and that the best way to growth is to supply original first party games that people feel they simply can't miss out on. I know that last statement is why they are doing the second thing I listed, but it's just the wrong way to do things.
I don't see MS doing any of those things though. Phil obviously doesn't get games otherwise he would have overseen at least one industry defining title over his decade of running things. We aren't even close to seeing that and he continues his greasy used car salesman schtick "Best xbox lineup ever!" (what does that kind of crap even mean? Says who?).
It seems pretty clear that Sony is still more in demand than MS. Looks like more PS5s sold in July and you couldn't find those on the shelves anywhere. But I could have gone and picked up a Series X locally anytime I wanted. They are in stock now. So as soon as PS5 stock grows, it's going to take off in terms of units sold. Considering we are about to hit year 3 of this gen, with no bangers in sight for MS (well actually Hellblade 2 could be cool, and I know there is a lot more that is not revealed yet), I don't see them turning it around at all. The numbers are too slanted in Sony's favor to allow them to catch up. So I don't know to which degree he is right, but the OP is probably right in general.
But again ... all comes down to the software offerings.
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Maybe, but it's Sony's goal.
Probably not. I don't think that's what's gonna happen though. ABK, for example, is extremely profitable.
OP
OP
I have seen many such posts on the Internet.
In the end, I think people leaving PlayStation consoles (because games are releasing on PC) and new people joining PlayStation (because they have got the taste and now can't wait) will set off each other, and PS will just end up with additional revenue from PC sales without any loss.
Here we have a picture of him waititng for the Horizon 2 PC release in 2098:
Nah, numbers say PS has steady MAU, that there is a record engagement and demand for PS5.
As soon as they are able to ship enough PS their userbase will skyrocket.
Console sales will always determine the winner of a generation, that's the way it's always been
Just a quick question, how do you measure the "win"? Just consoles sales? Doesn't seem like a very good metric when both Playstation and Xbox are pivoting heavily into multiplatform, including PC.
I see PlayStation winning this generation too because I think they're simply too good now. They have the experience, skill and managment to stay ahead
Will see if the 18million this financial year pans out. Last year they had a forecast and they held onto that forecast until 2-3 months before the financial year ended before saying that they won't meet it.
It would be massive though if they can do it, that advantage kinda helps them as some people tend to buy what their friends or relatives buy.
It would be massive though if they can do it, that advantage kinda helps them as some people tend to buy what their friends or relatives buy.
That's gonna ruffle some feathers to say the least x3
1. Console sales
Selling more consoles has been the biggest challenge for both console manufacturers, and it is mostly because of supply issues. While Xbox's demand and supply are relatively more in equilibrium now, PlayStation's demand still outdoes supply by a fair margin. PlayStation has been on the back foot because of limited supply.
That's about to change.
Around March 2022, Sony forecasted to sell 18 million PS5 units between April 2022 and March 2023. From April to June, they sold 2.4 million units, an average of 0.8 million units sold per month.
The interesting part is that Sony did not change its forecast for the rest of the fiscal year, which means Sony is confident in supplying and selling 15.6 million units before March 31, 2023. That is an average of 1.73 million units per month. That's more than double what Sony has manufactured so far.
On the other hand, Xbox has run into its own supply issues that would last throughout 2022 and even 2023. This is after having a good period when they manufactured lots of consoles at the start of 2022.
Assuming it all plays out like this, after March 2023, Sony would have sold more than 35 million PS5s, while Xbox would be around 19 million consoles (based on current reported and estimated sales data). A ratio of almost 2:1, similar to last gen.
I'm guessing Sony have gotten chip priority, but it could also be the whole "chip priority" story at least the way certain people spun it, was always kind of BS. Earlier chip shortages would have definitely impacted both (and even Nintendo with the Switch), but maybe it was more a case Sony just revised orders for a certain period when weighing other aspects of the business, and Microsoft just independently decided to either increase their supply for that same period, or didn't scale back on their order capacity.
It doesn't have to really be the case of Microsoft outbuying Sony on chips for the early half of the year the way some have tried framing it (because by that logic, wouldn't MS be increasing their own production numbers for the rest of the FY? Because it seems like they're either expecting flat growth or even negative growth on hardware numbers but I wouldn't know how far in advance these companies pay for their chips).
But anyway, while it might not be THAT big a gap, I can easily see Xbox sitting somewhere at 20-22 million by end of FY2022, and PS5 at or above 35 million by the same time, which is significant. The only reason I doubt Xbox would be as low as 19 million is because I think they'll have somewhat improved supply for the holiday season, especially in NA, and Xbox traditionally does pretty well during Black Friday and Christmas shopping periods. So that should help their numbers some.
As for where they are currently at though, it's really hard to say. People keep saying 16 million and maybe they're at that point NOW, but when the only source for MS's numbers is VGChartz, knowing they've already overestimated MS's numbers in the past, they could be at 16 million sold-through or sold-in (to retailers), or 15 million sold-through or sold-in. There's really no way to say.
Don't forget SFVI as well; Sony seem to have marketing rights to that and will at least have first access on the betas console-side. Same with RE4 Remake, where they also have marketing rights; these may both be 3P multiplats but console-wise PS will see the majority of brand association.
Even just looking at exclusives, tho it kind of sucks KOTOR Remake is basically in purgatory for the time being, PS5 still has a really solid line-up and most importantly all the games you listed are known quantities. Starfield didn't have the best showing and Bethesda have a reputation tho it's a spotty one these days. RedFall isn't really a known quantity; Forza will be quality but it won't do much for the Xbox brand that it hasn't already done in the past.
Outside of that they have maybe STALKER 2 but last I know that's a 3-month timed exclusive, and a few smaller indie games but PS5 will have quite a few on both fronts as well. So it's looking like in general PS5 has the software advantage for 2023 unless you like a ton of smaller indie games Day 1 in a subscription service, or are just a HUGE Bethesda nut, in which case I guess Xbox's lineup is maybe a bit more appealing. But I don't think the vast majority of gamers out there would go with that option.
Yeah, one thing I think which has dampened the surprise factor for Xbox's exclusives is so many insiders have leaked tons of stuff on almost all of them. We've either got codenames, concept art, leaked screenshots or all three in some cases, WELL ahead of Microsoft officially showing them off.
For the casuals this doesn't mean much because they don't really follow gaming news, but it's the hardcore & core who bring the most hype and in turn help bring a lot of the attention to these games which casuals latch onto, and the leaks on the MS side have gotten kind of out of control.
Supposed insiders are now trying to pull the same game with Sony's stuff and I'm just beyond tired of it; they're actually sucking out the excitement from the announcement of these games and robbing the developers of their chance to reveal what they've worked so hard on.
4. Missing Pieces
Two things that PlayStation has been struggling with -- and where Xbox had an advantage and could gain a competitive edge this generation -- have been nullified by PlayStation.
In addition, the upcoming 10+ TV Shows and Movies based on Playstation IPs can play a massive role in bringing new people to the PlayStation ecosystem.
- Multiplayer, live-service, and shooter games -- There are more than 10 games in development that belong to this category.
- Subscription service -- PS Plus has been making waves and was able to eliminate (or, at least, minimize) the huge Gamepass advantage that Xbox had going for it.
On the MP/live-service side I wouldn't mind if Motorstorm came back, or Jet Moto, stuff like that. I know Sony have a lot of shooter IP but I'm not really big into FPS so MAG, Killzone, Resistance etc. don't matter too much to me. Curious maybe about Warhawk, though.
Really curious to see what the subscription services side of things will bring. If they do Day 1 1P releases, it should probably be limited to smaller indie and AA games, but it could be a great boost to legacy IP getting new installments, remakes etc as they would have much smaller budgets anyway. It's why I still have some hope for a new UmJammer/Parappa, or Tomba!, etc.
5. Innovations
To top it all off, for people who prefer new and shiny stuff, PlayStation will be releasing PS VR 2 before March 2023. That would be a huge competitive advantage over Xbox which does not offer any games in this medium at all.
I'm still amazed that there is no official VR support for Xbox yet. Not even whitelisting for an existing VR headset. You would think it'd be something resolved by now with how many FPS games they have out or coming out.
Maybe they have something planned, but if the only way to play Xbox 1P games in VR is through PC then that makes the console even less of value IMO.
6. Acquisitions
Last but not least, we know that bigger acquisitions are coming that would help sway the momentum in PlayStation's favor even more.
- Both Greg and Jeff Grubb heard about Square Enix. Eidos's CEO also heard that Sony was acquiring SquareEnix.
- Jim Ryan confirmed that Sony has many more acquisitions planned.
- Sony started Bungie acquisition talks in June 2020 -- before Activision and Bethesda. So the response to those acquisitions by Xbox (if any) has yet to come.
I'm not the type to hype of acquisitions or put out dream buys or stuff like that, but there definitely are a lot of signs pointing to Square-Enix perhaps looking to deepen relations with at least one company out there, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sony sweeps in.
While I think a company like Sega would probably be better served under Sony or Nintendo if they had to be acquired, that's maybe the one Japanese-orientated acquisition (dev/pub wise, outside of Tango) which could be Microsoft's wheelhouse in the future...but they certainly wouldn't be able to make a buy right now and there's no telling what could happen between now and then.
I still think Kodakawa could be another company Sony is interested in, they're certainly affordable enough. Capcom could be one they would be interested in but it's probably one of the least likely as far as Japanese publishers are concerned. I'm not really too wild about potential Western companies, but I guess WB or Ubisoft would be potentials, as well as CDPR. Developer-wise it'd be a lot trickier; I genuinely think Ember Labs is one such company, as is Deviation Games. Arc System Works could be another possibility, same with Supermassive Games.
I still think some of this is up in the air, and ultimately it's going to be just as much about gaming revenue as it is consoles sold (that's one reason Microsoft have made these massive acquisitions and why Sony is increasing focus on live-service games), but I agree with the general idea that the gap will definitely grow in PS5's favor sales-wise over the course of the next six to eight months.
If I were Microsoft, for that same time period I would focus on dissuading concerns over some of the currently announced new games (Everwild, State of Decay 3, Starfield, Perfect Dark etc.) with some official updates, teases, maybe even gameplay. Finally provide some gameplay of Hellblade II and Avowed. This is probably the time where actually showing how these games are shaping up will be their best option to retain goodwill not just with people on Xbox but gamers in general.
It's especially important considering they don't have any marketing deals with the big 3P AAA releases coming out during that timeframe, and 1P-wise they only have Starfield (could be excellent, could be mid, currently seems "alright" going off the Showcase), RedFall (could be anything) and Forza (known quantity, won't really do much for those not in the fanbase).
Notice the market share forecast in the bottom of this Sony slide. Sony says they had a 45% market share with PS4 and targets to achieve >50% with PS5. So yes, they seem the compare the revenue of the big 3:
Knack 3 looms in the distance, like an impending doom.
The end grows near.
The end grows near.
The market is very obviously changing. Console sales alone made sense back when there was no multiplatform.
we are once again slowly transitioning back to console sales don’t matter.
I really don't get how some people seems to think that others will simply forget all that has happened in the recent past. Things don't reset when a new gen start and they certainly don't reset 2 or 3 years into a new gen.
If MS stars nailing every release from 2023 onwards, if they start to consistently releasing big high quality games it would still take many years for them to threaten Sony unless Sony starts making huge mistakes and releasing flops.
With that said, there is no reason to think Xbox studios won't continue to struggle going forward. Activision Blizzard is in terrible shape and the main games will most likely all continue to sell on PlayStation, Bethesda as publisher had pretty much a single truly successful studio and the game they showed already looks like the next Halo Infinite.
If MS stars nailing every release from 2023 onwards, if they start to consistently releasing big high quality games it would still take many years for them to threaten Sony unless Sony starts making huge mistakes and releasing flops.
With that said, there is no reason to think Xbox studios won't continue to struggle going forward. Activision Blizzard is in terrible shape and the main games will most likely all continue to sell on PlayStation, Bethesda as publisher had pretty much a single truly successful studio and the game they showed already looks like the next Halo Infinite.
So, the Switch is the clear winner of the generation if sales are the only criteria. Noted.
Good post but the lead is already insurmountable
Xbox just doesn't have enough relevance globally to catch up. Until it's actually selling better and not just in one market in a specific time frame, it won't catch up.
From a critical and commercial success of software standpoint it's just not a competition yet this gen. Sony have released multiple huge titles, MS just relying on same old Forza games still.
The live service space will be interesting to watch this gen. Sony now has Destiny in its portfolio and MS will have COD, so unlike last gen it's the two platform holders with two of the biggest live service games. Both will be multiplat though so its really about the revenue. But it feels like the field is wide open for the next big thing to come along. It's been awhile since a game took over the mindshare in the way Fortnite did last gen. It could very well come from Sony or MS
Xbox just doesn't have enough relevance globally to catch up. Until it's actually selling better and not just in one market in a specific time frame, it won't catch up.
From a critical and commercial success of software standpoint it's just not a competition yet this gen. Sony have released multiple huge titles, MS just relying on same old Forza games still.
The live service space will be interesting to watch this gen. Sony now has Destiny in its portfolio and MS will have COD, so unlike last gen it's the two platform holders with two of the biggest live service games. Both will be multiplat though so its really about the revenue. But it feels like the field is wide open for the next big thing to come along. It's been awhile since a game took over the mindshare in the way Fortnite did last gen. It could very well come from Sony or MS
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peter42O
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Personally, I believe that Sony will win the generation overall but will be much closer than last generation. Last generation was 2 to 1 minimum. I don't see this generation going past 1.5 to 1 maximum. I see Microsoft winning back North America by more than 5m but less than 10m. I see Microsoft cutting the massive lead Sony has had in Europe by half give or take. Sony won Europe by over 33m but only won the PS3/360 generation by approximately 5m. I see Microsoft cutting the 33m lead from last generation to around 16-17m. Basically half. Sony will win Japan by around 6-8m give or take. Sony will win overall everywhere else but by 5m or less. It will be extremely close this generation.
According to Zhuge and others, PS5 is at approximately 22m while Series X/S is at 17m. If going into 2023, this difference is still at 5m or so, then I don't see Sony running away with this generation outside of Europe and even then, it will be much closer than last generation. Imagine releasing Horizon Forbidden West, Gran Turismo 7 and God of War Ragnarok while your competition has well, fucking nothing for 2022 and yet, you still only lead by 5m or so going into 2023? If this happens, this will make it much more clearer that this generation will be much more in line with 360/PS3 than XBO/PS4.
As for chip shortages, this applies and affects all three hardware manufacturers so it all evens out.
One other reason why I don't see Sony running away with this generation whatsoever -
Everyone remembers 2013 when Microsoft pushed always online and digital only. Well, less than a decade later, the vast majority of game sales are digital (which heavily favors subscriptions since the games have to be downloaded digitally or streamed) and vast majority of gamers including those who play single player only games do so while being connected online. Microsoft basically saw the future but their execution and messaging was beyond horrible and people weren't ready for it.
This time around, Microsoft is showing everyone the future again but with a subscription service that when you factor in a recession, people spending less money, wanting more the money they do spend, Sony charging $70 for their PS5 games, upgrade fees, no first party games day one on PS+, their massive acquisitions, all their games on Game Pass day one, hundreds of games to play combined with a Series S which is perfect for parents who just want to sit their kids in front of the TV so they can shut the hell up and stop pestering them. Plus, unlike 2013, they're not forcing anyone to do anything. If you still want to buy games on a disc or digitally, go ahead. Still want to rent them from say GameFly, go ahead. Simply put, this generation is ripe for Microsoft to make a massive comeback with Xbox.
Of course, how everything plays out all remains to be seen and I for one am very much looking forward to the next several years and how it all goes.
According to Zhuge and others, PS5 is at approximately 22m while Series X/S is at 17m. If going into 2023, this difference is still at 5m or so, then I don't see Sony running away with this generation outside of Europe and even then, it will be much closer than last generation. Imagine releasing Horizon Forbidden West, Gran Turismo 7 and God of War Ragnarok while your competition has well, fucking nothing for 2022 and yet, you still only lead by 5m or so going into 2023? If this happens, this will make it much more clearer that this generation will be much more in line with 360/PS3 than XBO/PS4.
As for chip shortages, this applies and affects all three hardware manufacturers so it all evens out.
One other reason why I don't see Sony running away with this generation whatsoever -
Everyone remembers 2013 when Microsoft pushed always online and digital only. Well, less than a decade later, the vast majority of game sales are digital (which heavily favors subscriptions since the games have to be downloaded digitally or streamed) and vast majority of gamers including those who play single player only games do so while being connected online. Microsoft basically saw the future but their execution and messaging was beyond horrible and people weren't ready for it.
This time around, Microsoft is showing everyone the future again but with a subscription service that when you factor in a recession, people spending less money, wanting more the money they do spend, Sony charging $70 for their PS5 games, upgrade fees, no first party games day one on PS+, their massive acquisitions, all their games on Game Pass day one, hundreds of games to play combined with a Series S which is perfect for parents who just want to sit their kids in front of the TV so they can shut the hell up and stop pestering them. Plus, unlike 2013, they're not forcing anyone to do anything. If you still want to buy games on a disc or digitally, go ahead. Still want to rent them from say GameFly, go ahead. Simply put, this generation is ripe for Microsoft to make a massive comeback with Xbox.
Of course, how everything plays out all remains to be seen and I for one am very much looking forward to the next several years and how it all goes.
Xbox fans hiding behind Nintendo as usual. It's so tiring. They don't even have the same library and the Switch is from the 8th gen.
Eighth generation of video game consoles - Wikipedia
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