Man...
Your Series numbers are bullshit... near 4 million in shelves at end of 2022 is bullshit.
There is no logic that can backup your "guess".
After you replied talking about XB1 and 360 trying to say they overshipped in the past.
I said that your post is unrelated because we are talking about Series consoles
You come again showing some numbers for XB1 and 360... I replied that 1) these numbers are combined, 2) Nowhere in your post compares SOLD with SHIPMENT to explain your "MS was overshipping in the past", 3) There is not number to backup your claim.
Now you come asking me again what I"m complaining?
Your explaination makes zero, yes ZERO, sence but you keep hard on it.
You instead to revise your wrong estimates choose to say "MS overshipped" for whatever reason lol
BTW Series are behind Xbox One.... you are crazy if you thing they are ahead lol MS stopped to say it was ahead because it is not anymore.
I could understand you believing they were close and Series ahead until CY Q3 but not after CY Q4 and it absmal NPD and others trackers sales.
Your entire response to me since I've been on this site is bullshit.
The lack of acknowledgement when it comes to public data that might prove your point wrong is outstanding.
Is Microsoft now suddenly just no longer focused on Q4? Despite every holiday that had massive software or discounts, you're really going to say we can't look at historical precedent for Xbox shipment performance? Why, it's not like COVID is an impact anymore, you said that yourself.
You do understand that if a company sees a larger drop in shipments compared to the competition consistently from one specific quarter to the next, that company is shipping more than it probably should? I've already provided the Q4 to Q1 drops for all relevant consoles, Xbox has the worst. They'd only ship less if there were more units that had yet to be sold through, otherwise why are the drops worse than their competition.
I'm glad you know the XB1 and 360 numbers I brought up are combined. Try and separate them now. Why? Because then you get a bare minimum for XBS right before Q4 2022. It's not that difficult to understand. Your refusal to perform even a basic task is your problem, not mine. This can be done much more rationally if you gave any type of analysis other than the continuous "impossible" remarks.
Funny enough, no number actually proves me wrong. I already brought up how two other non Xbox consoles had +3M unsold units after a holiday. Nothing says I'm wrong, only your opinion, not any verifiable data. All you've done is say "number too high" and nothing to prove that. I've already shown you how you can do exactly that. Figure out XB1 shipments up to Q3 2015, that gives the bare minimum XBS is at as of Q3 2022, and then we can argue how many units Microsoft shipped in Q4 2022 specifically.
You yourself already question Ampere and IIRC, think XBS sell through should be lower because of... Hmmm, historical precedent between US and worldwide? But in this post you verbatim say "I said that your post is unrelated because we are talking about Series consoles". So any data point I bring up to help my argument is irrelevant because it's not directly about XBS but your position on how low XBS is can include anything.
BTW in my estimate Xbox is even lower than 18m as end of 2022 based in the typical US/WW ratio for Xbox… well unless it sold like 2 million in NPD December.
My data is based purely on Microsoft reported financials. No one has debunked the actual units XB1 should be at, you refuse to do so, and as far as I'm concerned, if you or anyone don't even want to attempt the most simple analysis on what the minimum shipment for XBS is at Q3 2022, you've conceded. The continued denial of this simple fact is appalling.
Absolutely absurd how we have official statements from Microsoft outlining when XBS outsold XB1, we have shipment data from Microsoft for that period of time, and you have the gall to say my explanation makes zero sense, all because it seems too high.
I also have to love how in the same post you go from saying Xbox Series couldn't be over shipped and at the very end you start saying XBS did horrible in the holidays. Pick a position. You do understand that if XBS had a better sell through in Q4, the amount of unsold units goes down, but because it wasn't better, the amount is high?
So many words yet you didn't address any of the points I made. Please tell me how any serious analysis can include the word "intuition" in it.
I hate doing this, but my XB1 LTD is near what Niko Partners estimated, I had XBS at +12M after Q4 2021, same as Niko Partners, and my data fits with every single report Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling Xbox.
I can also bring up how I estimated NPD figures well within 10% of units sales last year with nothing to go off of but revenue, unit availability, and pricing, kind of like how I explained my methods in this thread.
My methods get me in line with an actual research firm. I have been following video game sales since 2014. You kinda learn and pick up on things. Intuition is my understanding of the market. I go over as much data as I can get to make my judgements. Like what else do I need to say? How do you think analysis is done with limited info other than having an understanding of the field and making an educated assumption.
I'm not going around saying "these are the REAL numbers Microsoft won't let out". I've always prefaced any estimate as being mine alone, and I've provided me reasoning plenty of times. You don't agree with my reasoning, and that's fine, but going off of other analysts, somehow it works.
