I think that
this was a good analysis about some of the regulatory hurdles that the acquisition might face (if this goes through).
Highlights from the article + some extra comments from me:
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Kadokawa is Japan's third-largest book publisher by revenue and
a pioneer of the media mix strategy that many Japanese entertainment companies use today to develop content across different media categories.
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Three out of four anime properties, in which Sony has
accelerated investments,
are adapted from other media like manga, light novels, video games, according to
an analysis of anime broadcasting data published in 2014.
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Kadokawa is the largest publisher of light novels, serial paperback novels that incorporate anime-style illustrations,
capturing 50 percent of that market in 2021.
- The report from Nikkei (the one in Japanese, not the one from Nikkei Asia in English), included this quote from an anime executive:
"Many of the major publishers are unlisted companies, and there are many companies both in Japan and abroad that are said to be interested in the listed Kadokawa". That could be one of the reasons for this leak. It could also point out to potential trouble during the regulatory process (third parties opposing the deal).
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Kadokawa and Sony Music subsidiary Aniplex combined invested in about one-third of 321 productions of late-night anime airing in 2022 and 2023,
according to a study published at Tokyo's Comic Market 104 in August.
- Kadokawa and Sony's corporate groups combined own ten anime studios,
including reliable primary contractors like A-1 Pictures, CloverWorks, Kinema Citrus, and Doga Kobo. Amid
an industrywide labor shortage, a consolidated business could lock up a significant portion of anime production capacity for its own properties. This could raise
monopsony issues.
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Shares of Bandai Namco fell on the Tokyo Stock Exchange as investors asked whether Sony could make the studio's future titles exclusive to PlayStation. The reaction from Bandai Namco could be interesting because they would also lose the developer of the most successful Dragon Ball game in many years. In 2022 Bandai Namco already said that
"the company has to implement measures to safeguard its partnerships and IPs".
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If FROM Software may go exclusive or not could also be fun to watch from a regulatory perspective.
During the ABK case, the European Commission analysed the video game market from a genre perspective and Elden Ring was considered an "AAA Role Playing game". Sony wasn't part of the of the main competitors in the genre on a worldwide scale, NetEase, Nexon, Tencent and Embracer had a bigger market share per revenue. The risk of FROM going exclusive could also be interesting if for example a platform holder (Microsoft!) has issues with it.
- Finally,
a successful acquisition could also consolidate ownership of the two largest English-language anime news media, Crunchyroll News and Anime News Network. The DOJ was already worried about a potential "
anime monopoly" when Sony acquired Crunchyroll.
If this goes ahead, no obstacle seems imposible to address/remedy.
But the regulatory process could provide again lots of good insights about the video game industry as well as the anime and manga sectors (although I'm doubtful about their intervention, the EC and the CMA would provide again a lot of documentation, more than the FTC/DOJ, JFTC, SAMR or other regulators from Asia).