As you say with no evidence whatsoever.
Xbox is the evidence.
It's extremely doubtful that someone who already spends 500 dollars on a console is going to jump to PC just to use PSN there.
It's already happened. What do you think was happening near the end of the 360/PS3 generation? Why do you think the PS4 Pro was made (among other reasons)? And again, what have you
literally seen happen with Xbox over the past 10 years?
And even if you're looking at net new customers, that's actually beneficial for Sony. The best case for Sony is to lock you into PSN without having to sell you hardware that they sell at a loss.
It's only beneficial if the number of new net customers is enough to collectively replace the 2-3 million who phase out from buying PlayStation hardware, most SIE peripherals and most 3P games through PlayStation to shift towards PC, Steam, and using a PS Launcher mainly for PS+ and 1P SIE games.
The chances a single net new customer coming in through this pathway of a PS Launcher, will spend enough to replace a single of those 2-3 million high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiasts who just naturally reduce their spend on PlayStation specifically, is very low. So, Sony'd have to count on just netting multiples of those types for every one high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiast who "scales down".
They would still get the B2P and MTX from the PC launcher...
Yes but mainly from 1P games. The PS PC Launcher would have to do a hell of a lot to convince PC gamers, to buy 3P games there instead of some place like Steam. Heck, it'd have to do a lot to convince many to buy SIE's own games on the Launcher vs. Steam, considering a PS Launcher on PC doesn't mean SIE will stop bringing their games to Steam.
At most it'd just mean the Launcher gets them first, and then they go to Steam maybe a year or so later. I don't think the element of FOMO will work for SIE on PC in that case to the degree it has (so far) in the console space.
Hilarious how you make the assumption people would jump to the PC launcher, even if it has less 3P support... How is it that you don't realize that you have a clear agenda?
If the amount of 3P games present is lacking then less of those 2-3 million will go to the PC Launcher and would just probably stick with the console, yes. But if what percentage "jumps over" isn't stricken with FOMO and already have PCs for some gaming anyhow...why would they not go with the launcher if it means (potentially) getting 1P games Day 1 there, with PSN and PS+ integrated in the experience?
They can use the Launcher for 1P games, and Steam for 3P games. It's really that simple.
You still haven't explained why they're loinsg console buyers in the first place. This idea that all console buyers want a PC just isn't baked in reality. PC gaming has been around for decades and so has console gaming.
I didn't say "all" console players. I estimated it'd be at most maybe 2-3 million of their high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiasts, and that would depend on a multitude of factors. The more of those factors that manifest, the more of those 2-3 million that'd switch from a console to PC. And even that 2-3 million is not representative of the total number of high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiasts on console. It doesn't include more casual core gamers, casuals or mainstream at all, either, which would easily outnumber hardcore/core enthusiasts in install base count.
However, the 2-3 million that'd switch bring with them amount of spending power, and a lot of that spending power would probably shift from outside of the PlayStation ecosystem and towards other ecosystems on PC. This isn't a radical concept. You remember the old measure of "software attach rates"? Well it's similar here; those 2-3 million would be the types in older gens with the highest software attach rates by far; there aren't many of them, but they do the most spending in the ecosystem. SIE losing out on a large portion (let's say 60-70%) of that spending from those 2-3 million is going to hit a bit different than losing a mainstream customer, because a single high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiast probably spends the equivalent of 4-5 mainstream customers' worth in a console generation.
As for things that might attract once-console players to PC, again we have already seen historical precedent of why. Better peak performance potential, free online, integrated Steam features (community forums, much better refund policy, etc.), PC-exclusive games, retro emulation, full Discord usability, robust streaming capabilities, cheaper game prices, tons of mod support, tons of I/O controller options, convenience (same system as for student studies for example, or multimedia production for a freelance artist + gamer as another example), etc.
There's quite a few strong reasons there, and it's why I've been suggesting if SIE (and to a lesser extent, Microsoft) want to make their console more competitive, they should be finding ways to integrate these types of features into the console experience while still retaining the universal benefits consoles tend to enjoy vs. PC (ease of use, simple/family-friendly UI, security,
upfront costs).
The amount of assumptions you make that are entirely baseless is absolutely hilarious. You learned nothing from your VR fumble.
Right so I guess SEGA, NEC, 3DO, Atari, SNK etc. never existed and Xbox never existed? Or PS3 and PS Vita never existed? Or Wii U or GameCube? Got it o.0.
There is always SOME amount of lateral transfers.
So why are you disagreeing with me on this? I've only been saying there is some lateral transfer. Not flat-out, full-on transfer of audiences.
There are also people going from PC to console.
I've acknowledged this, hence why I also said that it's very possible SIE could bring in enough new people (be they new from Xbox, new from Nintendo, new from mobile or new from PC) to make up for any "scaling down" of a 2-3 million high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiast slice from PS to PC.
Maybe could even do both that and see large gains in addition to it while doing so. I never said that was impossible.
There is no real evidence to suggest that one is greater than the other, but some with an agenda here are convinced that one is true, despite there not being evidence to support it.
I wasn't bringing any of this up to suggest one is "greater" than the other, whatever that means. However, some folks are adverse to the idea that platforms like PC provide any competition, even indirect competition, to consoles like PlayStation despite the two sharing roughly 90% of the same library at any given time and 100% of the same library over the course of a generation thanks to SIE's PC porting efforts.
And if anything, it'd be PC with a library advantage at this point because of the many PC games that don't have ports on PlayStation. VALORANT was one such game and is only now getting a PS5 version four years after being a PC exclusive. So many, even SIE now apparently, have become warped in this idea that only direct competitors matter, and that the only actual competitor PlayStation console has is Xbox, an also-ran at this point.
They are either foolish to think this, to ignore that indirect competitors can be far more effective than direct ones in various instances, or they do not care. And if they don't care, it's likely because they (SIE) have reasons and plans to take a drastically more console-agnostic approach going forward. Which is well within their choice; I don't bring any of this up to suggest they should stop. None of us have that power.
I just mention my POV because, personally, I don't favor or gel with SIE's approach; even if it's what works best for them at the end of the day, my tastes just lay elsewhere. But I do at least accept that their approach is the reality of how they're going about things, and I acknowledge this is what they want to do.