Sony's future and possible studio/publisher acquisitions

[Nhomnhom]

Jim Ryan started in 2018, Hermen started in 2019. How do they not get some credit for Ragnarok? Who gets credit for PS5 launch and demand if not the CEO in charge at the time?

Seems like you're one of those that want to bash on Ryan anything you perceive as bad but not give credit for anything good.

Do you think Ragnarok started being developed in 2019? The only call was making it crossgen. The PS4 guys in charge of the big shift in market share, devs and PS5 hardware team get the credit for the initial PS5 success.

I'll judge Jim Ryan on his own merit, I even mentioned how his bet on crossgen was clearly correct. I would also give a lot of credit for pulling the upset against the ABK deal but that ain't looking so good now. Sorting out the PS5 supply is also a pretty impressive thing that happened under him so he also gets credit for that.

Hults is a lot harder to judge given how long game development takes these days. I give him credit for the impressive support of Death Stranding and how he fostered such a technicality competent studio in Guerrilla (that to me still lacks in artistic vision to really elevate their games).

 

[Old Gamer]

Are you guy’s suggesting squares stock rose dramatically in a short amount of time with no explanation? I’m confused what’s actually being said here.

Well I'd expect all publishers market value to spike, now that MS has officially been granted carte blanche to monopolise by takeover.

 

[Eternal_Wings]

Well I'd expect all publishers market value to spike, now that MS has officially been granted carte blanche to monopolise by takeover.

The share price did rise before the news of CMA was published. It’s like one month ago it happened that Square Enix stock rose this high.

 

[Dabaus]

I’m disappointed with Sonys leadership right now. I really think they’ve missed their shot with not just square enix, but any publisher with these new made up market definitions. With Sony being the clear leader of the “high end market” where Nintendo, pc, and mobile is excluded, a definition they apparently fought for, they may have boxed themselves in here. I don’t know if courts would be willing to redefine how the market actually is if Sony were to buy a publisher but that’s just another hill they’d have to climb with regulators. They should’ve used the activision deal as an opportunity to close in and make some defensive acquisitions. They had 18 billion dollars to spend for the last few years when this acquisition war began and quite frankly have very little to show for it now.

 

[Eternal_Wings]

I’m disappointed with Sonys leadership right now. I really think they’ve missed their shot with not just square enix, but any publisher with these new made up market definitions. With Sony being the clear leader of the “high end market” where Nintendo, pc, and mobile is excluded, a definition they apparently fought for, they may have boxed themselves in here. I don’t know if courts would be willing to redefine how the market actually is if Sony were to buy a publisher but that’s just another hill they’d have to climb with regulators. They should’ve used the activision deal as an opportunity to close in and make some defensive acquisitions. They had 18 billion dollars to spend for the last few years when this acquisition war began and quite frankly have very little to show for it now.

This is because Jim Ryan insisted on Call of Duty. He is the CEO of SIE, so it was clearly his decision to push back against Activision Blizzard. I have the hunch he will resign if regulators will approve this deal for Microsoft.

 

[Yurinka]

Square is right, I didn't see when it increased in value...must have been recently.

Capcom is actually higher now, it's at about 9.7 billion dollars.

Nintendo is also a bit higher at 50 billion dollars...

Probably just a few days or up to a couple weeks of difference.

But you're very right about the other things being very suspicious... It would be exciting if it did happen. I can't lie.

Some extra info, Square Enix now has a market cap of $5.91B:

Capcom now has a market cap of $9.5B:

Nintendo has a market cap of $50.3B:

This is because Jim Ryan insisted on Call of Duty. He is the CEO of SIE, so it was clearly his decision to push back against Activision Blizzard. I have the hunch he will resign if regulators will approve this deal for Microsoft.

SIE has been breaking all sorts of records under him. It doesn't make sense at all that he'd resign. ABK is only around 4% of the gaming market and the acquisition won't almost affect PS, the users that could lose if/when CoD go console exclusive, a tiny portion of their userbase would be replaced by the growth SIE has in many areas.

 

[Johnic]

This is because Jim Ryan insisted on Call of Duty. He is the CEO of SIE, so it was clearly his decision to push back against Activision Blizzard. I have the hunch he will resign if regulators will approve this deal for Microsoft.

It's his legal obligation to protect Sony's income. He didn't do it out of spite or because he sucks, it's what's in his job description. His first and foremost duty is to protect the income and shareholders would have had him out in a second if he decided to just do nothing.

 

[Yurinka]

Particular the shift to GAAS.

- Shift to GaaS.

There's no GaaS shift, Sony is growing in all areas: growing 1st party teams, hiring 1st party deals, more 2nd and 3rd party exclusives, more console games, more pc ports, more mobile games, more vr games, more standard SP non GaaS games, more GaaS games, more new IP, more sequels.

GaaS under development are only around a quarter of all their games under development. Games like LBP series, PS Home, Singstar (the most recent one), Dreams, PS Destruction All Stars, MLB, GT7, Destiny 2 are GaaS.

Well I'd expect all publishers market value to spike, now that MS has officially been granted carte blanche to monopolise by takeover.

MS, the last one in the console race, seems that may -or may not- be allowed to acquire a company that has around 4% (percent that will decrease if/when they go console exclusive with their main IPs) of the gaming market share.

MS will continue being the last one in the console race, will be the 3rd in gaming market with maybe slightly above 10-15% market share.

It's a joke to consider it's a carte blanche to monopolize anything. They will continue being very far from having a monopoly or even being market leaders in the gaming market and in the console or game subs markets, where their direct competitor outperforms them by over 2:1 in most main metrics.

 

[Dabaus]

I still think Sony should go about the tencent strategy and invest in key partners rather than outright acquiring publishers.

- Dump a billion or 2 into square to have them be a defacto first party, maybe work something out so Sony can be included in the ff14 revenue.

Same for capcom

Reup stock buys into from software and publish all their games going forward if that’s what they want.

Continue acquiring smaller partner studios and stocking them with as much talent as you can. I’m sure ALOT of Activision devs are going to quit and be laid off so I’d keep an eye out for them.

-Invest formally in the fifa organization to have a permanent say in fifa marketing rights.

-Keep an eye out for Start up companies, particularly fps games, and offer to publish. Take split gate for example, it was a small hit in its own right. Imagine if it had Sonys backing and marketing?

 

[Eternal_Wings]

It's his legal obligation to protect Sony's income. He didn't do it out of spite or because he sucks, it's what's in his job description. His first and foremost duty is to protect the income and shareholders would have had him out in a second if he decided to just do nothing.

SIE has been breaking all sorts of records under him. It doesn't make sense at all that he'd resign. ABK is only around 4% of the gaming market and the acquisition won't almost affect PS, the users that could lose if/when CoD go console exclusive, a tiny portion of their userbase would be replaced by the growth SIE has in many areas.

Guys but not to this extent. Instead of announcing their deals as counter measures, he decided to pause them all. Just because to look as small as possible to antitrust authorities. Sony should have announced Square Enix, accepted the 10 years deal for Call of Duty or maybe increased it to a couple of years more. And start building the foundation for new massive Shooter franchise, which will get promoted on PS5 and PC. But this will now complicate many things.

 

[Johnic]

Guys but not to this extent. Instead of announcing their deals as counter measures, he decided to pause them all. Just because to look as small as possible to antitrust authorities. Sony should have announced Square Enix, accepted the 10 years deal for Call of Duty or maybe increased it to a couple of years more. And start building the foundation for new massive Shooter franchise, which will get promoted on PS5 and PC. But this will now complicate many things.

See, I don't buy that. The idea that Sony somehow either cancelled or toned down their acquisitions to appear smaller to regulators.

We're dealing with agencies that have actual, real internal documentation from these companies. Hiding any acquisitions would make no sense since they'd be included in those same documents these regulators have access to.

Remember how the regulators had access to MS' data showing they were discussing removal of COD games from Sony? If they knew that, they'd surely know Sony has been discussing acquisitions with major publishers, making hiding them moot.

 

[Loy310]

I think Take-Two would be a bad purchase for Sony as a whole. Plus their earnings are not that great and it takes them too long to release anything other than their sports titles. I thought of Namco Bandai but I read some comments a while back from the CEO and seems like they are in no way interested in selling.

If Sony wants a publisher they should go after Capcom or SE. Or maybe CDPR or Kadokawa imo.

GTA takes time because its on so many platforms. Drop xb and pc and development becomes more affordable and will certainly save time.

 

[Eternal_Wings]

See, I don't buy that. The idea that Sony somehow either cancelled or toned down their acquisitions to appear smaller to regulators.

We're dealing with agencies that have actual, real internal documentation from these companies. Hiding any acquisitions would make no sense since they'd be included in those same documents these regulators have access to.

Remember how the regulators had access to MS' data showing they were discussing removal of COD games from Sony? If they knew that, they'd surely know Sony has been discussing acquisitions with major publishers, making hiding them moot.

That’s not quite correct. The document the FTC demanded included this points: performance, revenue, exclusive deals from the last years, beginning in 2019. M&A weren’t part of this document and Microsoft would have no right in seeing them. Not even the FTC.

 

[Yurinka]

Guys but not to this extent. Instead of announcing their deals as counter measures, he decided to pause them all. Just because to look as small as possible to antitrust authorities. Sony should have announced Square Enix, accepted the 10 years deal for Call of Duty or maybe increased it to a couple of years more. And start building the foundation for new massive Shooter franchise, which will get promoted on PS5 and PC. But this will now complicate many things.

I'm pretty sure that Sony won't buy Square Enix, but instead will only invest acquiring a minority of some Square Enix subsidiary, as they did investing in From Software, Epic or Devolver.

As the CMA said, to make CoD console excusive wouldn't be profitable for MS, wouldn't help them highly increase their console market share and wouldn't substantially negatively affect their competition.

Sony plans to reease at least one (meaning, they are working on at least two) Bungie new IPs before 2025, they have more Destiny content coming, they are working in new IPs from Deviation, Firewalk and Haven (ex-Bungie, ex-CoD, ex-Apex Legends, ex-Rainbow Six Siege, ex-Bioshock, etc) and also apparently in a AAA Helldivers 2. Plus not sure if the new IPs from London, Firesprite and Bend will be very shootery but may be the case.

And well, obviously Fortnite, GTA Online, Apex Legends, Overwatch, Rainbow Six Siege, PUBG, Battlefield, Far Cry and all the other ones will continue on PS. Plus CoD until (and if) it ever becomes console exclusive.

He didn't announce countermeasures because they aren't needed. With their current strategy of growing in all areas (being some of them growing their studios and buy more, signing more 2nd and 3rd party exclusives), particularly in the ones where they had smalller presence (MP, shooters, GaaS, PC, mobile, movies) will help Sony to continue growing and becoming a more distant market leader increasing their lead over MS. Without needing to waste many dozens of billions.

 

[Eternal_Wings]

I'm pretty sure that Sony won't buy Square Enix, but instead will only invest acquiring a minority of some Square Enix subsidiary, as they did investing in From Software, Epic or Devolver.

As the CMA said, to make CoD console excusive wouldn't be profitable for MS, wouldn't help them highly increase their console market share and wouldn't substantially negatively affect their competition.

Sony plans to reease at least one (meaning, they are working on at least two) Bungie new IPs before 2025, they have more Destiny content coming, they are working in new IPs from Deviation, Firewalk and Haven (ex-Bungie, ex-CoD, ex-Apex Legends, ex-Rainbow Six Siege, ex-Bioshock, etc) and also apparently in a AAA Helldivers 2. Plus not sure if the new IPs from London, Firesprite and Bend will be very shootery but may be the case.

Drop that “pretty sure”. Neither you or me know what’s happening behind closed doors. Nobody could imagine Microsoft to buy Bethesda and Activision Blizzard or Sony spending big a premium price for Bungie. I bet with you that when Sony will invest in Square Enix, it will be a full acquisition. Further down the thread we discussed why only shares didn’t work out for them.

 

[Loy310]

Guys but not to this extent. Instead of announcing their deals as counter measures, he decided to pause them all. Just because to look as small as possible to antitrust authorities. Sony should have announced Square Enix, accepted the 10 years deal for Call of Duty or maybe increased it to a couple of years more. And start building the foundation for new massive Shooter franchise, which will get promoted on PS5 and PC. But this will now complicate many things.

How could he have just laid back?
You forget MS was offering him just 3 years? Now the offer is up to ten years and a whole bunch of cloud companies + nintendo is about to get cod all because sony held out and forced ms to give up more ground….

So if anything Jim holding out made things better for Sony and the industry as a whole.

I think your viewpoint is ass backwards. If jim had sat on his ass and not scream at the top of his lungs he would have got diddle squat just like zenimax and he would have certainly would been forced out of sie.
But hey, i guess we all have an opinion.

Sony should snag T2, if they drop the sports license and also drop PC and XB the purchase should be more affordable and development should be less costly and games should drop faster.

 

[Eternal_Wings]

How could he have just laid back?
You forget MS was offering him just 3 years? Now the offer is up to ten years and a whole bunch of cloud companies + nintendo is about to get cod all because sony held out and forced ms to give up more ground….

So if anything Jim holding out made things better for Sony and the industry as a whole.

I think your viewpoint is ass backwards. If jim had sat on his ass and not scream at the top of his lungs he would have got diddle squat just like zenimax and he would have certainly would been forced out of sie.
But hey, i guess we all have an opinion.

Sony should snag T2, if they drop the sports license and also drop PC and XB the purchase should be more affordable and development should be less costly and games should drop faster.

It didn’t do him and Sony any favour. As it now looks the regulators will approve this deal, probably without concessions. All this drama was for nothing. Microsoft will now be less interested in Sony signing the 10 years deal. I knew it from the start, that you can’t count on this corrupted antitrust authorities.

They could have announced Square Enix and moved on to the next target: Capcom e.g.

 

[Loy310]

It didn’t do him and Sony any favour. As it now looks the regulators will approve this deal, probably without concessions. All this drama was for nothing. Microsoft will now be less interested in Sony signing the 10 years deal. I knew it from the start, that you can’t count on this corrupted antitrust authorities.

They could have announced Square Enix and moved on to the next target: Capcom e.g.

Bro, ms is going to put cod on everything + PS, the cma dropped the console concern because they discovered that ms would lose a shit tonn of money if they pulled cod from PS. If merger now gets approval and ms turns around and drop PS what you think cma and ec gonna do to xb in those regions?

Your are forming your opinion with uninformed and flawed logic. You not discovering something that the regulators missed bro, lay off it, sony is safe, jim and sie did a good job making regulators understand how the industry works and forced ms to give up concessions so they can get apporval.

 

[Yurinka]

Drop that “pretty sure”. Neither you or me know what’s happening behind closed doors. Nobody could imagine Microsoft to buy Bethesda and Activision Blizzard or Sony spending big a premium price for Bungie. I bet with you that when Sony will invest in Square Enix, it will be a full acquisition. Further down the thread we discussed why only shares didn’t work out for them.

Square said that they plan to sell stakes of their studios, meaning they'll allow different investors to invest on specific studios. If they would plan to sell the whole company to a single company they wouldn't do that.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com...ed-its-looking-to-sell-stakes-in-its-studios/

In addition to this, SE's market cap is almost $6B. Recent big gaming acquisitions were paid at a premium of 40-60%. So pretty likely the acquisition price to acquire SE would be 40-60% higher than these almost $6B.

Sony (not their gaming division only) has a budget for acquisitions+investments+stock repurchases (not only acquisitions) until April 2024 of somewhere between $5-$7B. So probably Sony wouldn't be able to acquire them during this coming fiscal year even if both sides would agree.

Plus Square Enix hase several business where Sony isn't interested, being some of them the main SE investments, NFT.

So yes, I'm pretty sure Sony won't buy SE. I think Sony will invest in some of their studios, or maximum maybe may even acquire one or some of them.

 

[Johnic]

Bro, ms is going to put cod on everything + PS, the cma dropped the console concern because they discovered that ms would lose a shit tonn of money if they pulled cod from PS. If merger now gets approval and ms turns around and drop PS what you think cma and ec gonna do to xb in those regions?

Your are forming your opinion with uninformed and flawed logic. You not discovering something that the regulators missed bro, lay off it, sony is safe, jim and sie did a good job making regulators understand how the industry works and forced ms to give up concessions so they can get apporval.

Gonna have to say something here. Wings might be a little over the top but there's still cause for concern over MS' promises.

Not only did Sony already provide a full list of all times MS lied to regulators to get acquisitions through, before doing a 180 on what they promised, the FTC themselves outright stated that these promises do not work because the only punishment is a fine. A fine MS can easily pay and move on and they've already done this several times in the past.

Then there's the entire Zenimax thing. Is MS doesn't want to lose money on these, why make their games exclusive? I understand COD is a far cry from Fallout in terms of revenue but we're talking about MS here. A company that propped up a failing department for 20 years and still decided to drop 70billion to try and make something off of it.

So these promises MS makes are meaningless, as they've shown they're willing to tank profits to try and get ahead. And so far only the FTC raised concern over this.