Timeline of the Decline of the Xbox Series

[mibu no ookami]

2020
Aug '20 - Halo Infinite delayed to 2021, XBS to launch without a major IP

2021
Dec' 21 - Halo Infinite launches feature incomplete and fails to move the needle

2022
Sep '22 - Bonnie Ross out at 343i

2023
May '23 - Redfall releases and is a complete disaster
May '23 - Phil Spencer says Microsoft isn't going to out-console Sony
Aug '23 - Baldur's Gate 3 gets delayed on Xbox due to the Series S
Sep '23 - Starfield releases and fails to move the needle
Oct '23 - Forza Motorsport bombs

2024
Jan '24 - Microsoft announces 1900 layoffs in its gaming division
Feb '24 - Microsoft announces 4 Xbox games are moving to PS5
Feb '24 - Toys for Bob announces they're going independent
Mar '24 - Reports that Xbox is flat-lining in Europe
May '24 - Microsoft closes Tango Gameworks and Arkane Austin
Jun '24 - Xbox announces "No Console Needed" campaign with Amazon Firestick, they also announce 2TB XSX priced for 600 dollars in a clear sign they are no longer subsidizing hardware
Jun '24 - Black Myth Wukong delayed on Xbox, potentially never coming out
Aug '24 - Avowed delayed to 2025
Aug '24 - Indiana Jones announced for PS5 ahead of XBS launch, releasing 5 months after XBS launch
Sep '24 - Xbox announces additional layoffs (650 employees)
Oct '24 - 343i rebrands to Halo Studios announcing that they've moved Halo to Unreal Engine, all but guaranteeing it will be on PS5


Anyone who strongly believes that Microsoft is coming out with new hardware simply because they've suggested they would are fooling themselves. Is it possible? Sure, anything is possible. Is it likely? Absolutely it isn't.

It's clear that they're moving 3rd party, prioritizing like Activision did Call of Duty and other major IP. It's why they have no interest in owning Toys for Bob or Tango. It's why they need fewer and fewer employees. It's why they're not fighting for major exclusive games. Can you think of a single major exclusive 3rd party game since they bought ABK? I doubt the Microsoft board is willing to pay for any more exclusives, "we have exclusives at home".

The future of Xbox is 3rd party and it is GamePass. That's the only reason they're still trying to make inroads with Japanese studios. They're shifting towards being independently profitable as a Microsoft subsidiary. Something I doubt they've ever been in their history. That's going to look drastically different from now on.

I'm surprised people are still buying Xbox consoles to be honest. I'm presuming many of them are X1 owners looking to upgrade and stay in the same ecosystem and maybe that makes sense if you're subscribed to GamePass, but it'll be interesting to see how they honor game libraries moving forward. I know they're working on that, but delivering is another thing.

 

[Evilms]

Well summarized

 

[saltyashell]

The only positive thing I'll say about Xbox X/S is that it sold surprisingly well at launch, despite having zero exclusives for the first 2-3 years. How the fuck did Phil let that happen? What a catastrophe. It amazes me that even die-hards stuck with it after that

 

[Evilms]

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I think a next-gen console/PC hybrid from Xbox is practically guaranteed. There's no reason not to try such an approach, and that's partly where the handheld talks are also coming from. I've outlined multiple times how such an approach could probably work out in their favor, taking into account mentions from that Discord leak which so far has been 100% on the money WRT Microsoft's mid/longer-term strategy.

There's probably room in the market for them to push a "higher-end" console-like spec (let's say 20% - 25% more powerful than PS5 Pro in raw performance but with a much better CPU and more advanced AI-accelerated components) that can be manufactured by MS plus licensed out to 3P OEMs, with some degree of scalability (i.e enable/disable some shaders, increase shader clocks a bit, different amounts of system RAM within spec etc.), sold anywhere between $799 - $1099 depending on OEM variants and whether there's a Game Pass contract included (lower end of scale if so, higher end of scale if not).

But in order for that model to have any real appeal MS'd have to allow some actual PC-like modularity to the device. Maybe on things like an upgradable low-profile GPU they act as the only manufacturer (in partner with AMD or Nvidia, or hell even Intel), but for other stuff like system RAM it should allow for 3P options provided they are within supported spec. Should probably also allow for some higher clocking of the CPU, though CPU itself likely wouldn't be replaceable. The other two things they'd have to do are let whitelisted Windows apps run natively through extended Windows code through Xbox OS, and have a pricing model where access to alternative gaming storefronts (Steam, EGS etc.) can be tied to a contract-based Game Pass subscription tier ($799 SKU + pay out slightly more expensive Game Pass over a 2-year period in exchange for some All Access or Verizon mobile perk IDK) or just accessed normally like a typical Windows system ($999 - $1099+ SKU but no Game Pass contract). Also letting 3P OEMs have modifiable access to the Xbox OS UI frontend would be a requirement.

IMO that type of system has some potential in the market; it won't do anything close to PS5/PS5 or Switch/Switch 2 numbers but at this point MS should be focusing on reinvention simply to survive as some type of platform holder. Whether an approach like this coincided with them going Day 1 on Sony & Nintendo systems...that is a 50/50. After some though I'm leaning they wouldn't do that for all games, but we'd see a scenario where practically every game is guaranteed a PS (and in most cases, Nintendo) port within 1-3 years on average, some being even sooner and others of course being Day 1. MS's approach with PS & Nintendo will probably mirror what SIE's been doing with PC this gen, so the value proposition of this hypothetical Xbox would be:

-Timed exclusivity on many 1P games​

-Access to alternate gaming storefronts (mainly pushed through a special GP tier or a revamped GP Ultimate tier or both)​

-3P OEM system variants (with their own custom features)​

-Upgradable modularity (system RAM, low-profile GPU, etc.)​

-Access to whitelisted Windows applications​

...while finding a base MSRP that gives them a healthy profit margin on the hardware. Hence the $799 I mentioned, considering the PS5 Pro is going to be $699 and have a decent profit margin for SIE, and this is a hypothetical Xbox coming 1-2 years later with a much better CPU, at least 2x RAM (between system RAM and VRAM), more advanced upscaling and AI-accelerated stuff (though in what ways open to debate, and probably leaning a lot on whatever AMD provides vs. completely in-house custom solutions like PSSR...although there's a chance AMD adopt PSSR to future RDNA GPUs and that benefits MS somehow :/), but probably less storage (1 TB vs 2 TB). There's probably a decent-sized market for that system, but how big I think depends on the rumored handheld.

IMO any handheld should take a similar approach outlined with the console, but I can see MS opting to make the handheld themselves. Likely based on a different SOC but sharing tech with the console. I don't think it'll be possible to get anything beyond Series S level undocked, it could even be a bit below Series S when fully portable. But maybe with an active dock you can add a 1P low-profile GPU to increase performance up to even Series X level. The handheld'd probably go for $499 including the passive dock, but the low-profile GPU you'd buy separately. Between the console/PC hybrid and portable there's probably a 20-25 million lifetime addressable market assuming it were just MS, but with 3P OEM console/PC hybrids (probably including in other form factors) maybe closer to 35-38 million lifetime (assuming lifetime = 7/8 years). But if they got certain 3P to take up an OEM license, like SEGA, that'd probably add another 10-12 million on top since I think companies like SEGA could play up on a lot of nostalgia.

Last thing: while it'd probably be likely MS wouldn't do 3P OEM for the portable, I think they'd still license out the spec. For the option of there being 3P OEMs who'd want to make lower-end console-like boxes vs. the main spec. That's probably how you'd get cheaper SKUs because I wouldn't see the price on main SKUs decreasing by too much over the gen, if this gen has shown us anything.

 

[Boswollox]

View attachment 5710

Imagine comparing the series to the Dreamcast.
Dreamcast had games and was great fun.
OG Xbox was Dreamcast 2.

Microsoft wish it had the admiration of fans like sega did/does.

 

[Shadow2027]

The only positive thing I'll say about Xbox X/S is that it sold surprisingly well at launch, despite having zero exclusives for the first 2-3 years. How the fuck did Phil let that happen? What a catastrophe. It amazes me that even die-hards stuck with it after that

It sold surprisingly well at first because alot of casuals , budget constraint gamers, and those who really bought into the over promise that was the series s. They were 200 cheaper at a cheap $300, also at a time when people were getting covid money qnd needed something to do inside. 75% of their sales were the s the first 20 million units and even then they were frequently discounting the hardware to $230-250, giving out $100 coupons in Japan to get people to buy it

 

[Zzero]

You missed a few things, the Starfield and Redfall delays, Forza winning GotY, the absymal Infinite trialer that caused the delay, announcement of Bethesda purchase, announcement of A-B purchase and some of the milestones in that, etc.

 

[Zzero]

Also, op is a dummie if he thinks there won't be one more Xbox after the current one. They're clearly going there.

 

[ethomaz]

Do you really want to know?

Since…

Lies never build trust.

 

[ethomaz]

Also, op is a dummie if he thinks there won't be one more Xbox after the current one. They're clearly going there.

If the rumors are true.

There will be a Xbox from Asus, a Xbox from Dell, a Xbox from MSI, a Xbox from Lenovo, etc…

Xbox from Microsoft? Well why not… they did the Surface failure.

 

[Systemshock2023]

The decline started after Kinect released. They lost momentum there ending the 7th generation. Then TV TV TV to have a terrible start of the 8th generation. Spencer didn't address the main issue which always is inconsistent first party releases and lack of good marketing for a global audience.

Hardware wise Xbox has been great since the one X released. But it's games where they have been lacking for a decade now.

A d this is why I think they would be wrong in ending the generation abruptly in 2026. They gotta build trust with their first party releases end the generation well.

 

[Ezekiel]

Exbox is now being phased out in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Philippines, etc.

It might get officially discontinued next year or 2026.

 

[ethomaz]

The decline started after Kinect released. They lost momentum there ending the 7th generation. Then TV TV TV to have a terrible start of the 8th generation. Spencer didn't address the main issue which always is inconsistent first party releases and lack of good marketing for a global audience.

Hardware wise Xbox has been great since the one X released. But it's games where they have been lacking for a decade now.

A d this is why I think they would be wrong in ending the generation abruptly in 2026. They gotta build trust with their first party releases end the generation well.

To blame Kinect is a bit unfair imo.

360 mid to late sales where all due Kinect.
Xbox One being bundled with Kinect was a issue because it make it underpowered and expensive than PS4.

But Kinect was not the issue.
In fact Kinect could help sales but Xbox team knows what they are doing?

IMO Kinect had a lot of potential.
And people will disagree here but Kinect had more potential than VR for games… I should say Kinect + VR should be the norm for VR.

 

[Bo_Hazem]

This gen they entertained me with Craig:

He made me laugh fucking a lot, so thank you Phil.