Nintendo Q2 FY25: 2.62m Switch, Forecast revised down

[ethomaz]

Presentation:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/241105_5e.pdf

Switch LTD:

Revised forecast:

Some others data:

Revenue 17.39% down.
Profit: 69.31% down.
Revenue and Profit for the FY revised down.

Updated software shipment:

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 64.27M (+1.37M)
• Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 46.45M (+600K)
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 35.14M (+480K)
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 32.29M (+240K)
• Super Mario Odyssey - 28.50M (+290K)
• Pokémon Sword and Shield - 26.44M (+90K)
• Pokémon Scarlet and Violet - 25.69M (+400K)
• The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 21.04M (+240K)
• Super Mario Party - 20.98M (+140K)
• New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 17.77M (+160K)
• Nintendo Switch Sports - 14.37M (+1.26M since March 2024)
• The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom - 2.58M
• Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 1.94M (+180K)
• Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 1.57M (+380K)

 

[shrike0fth0rns]

Presentation:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/241105_5e.pdf

Switch LTD:

Revised forecast:

Some others data:

Revenue 17.39% down.
Profit: 69.31% down.
Revenue and Profit for the FY revised down.

Updated software shipment:

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 64.27M (+1.37M)
• Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 46.45M (+600K)
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 35.14M (+480K)
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 32.29M (+240K)
• Super Mario Odyssey - 28.50M (+290K)
• Pokémon Sword and Shield - 26.44M (+90K)
• Pokémon Scarlet and Violet - 25.69M (+400K)
• The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 21.04M (+240K)
• Super Mario Party - 20.98M (+140K)
• New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 17.77M (+160K)
• Nintendo Switch Sports - 14.37M (+1.26M since March 2024)
• The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom - 2.58M
• Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 1.94M (+180K)
• Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 1.57M (+380K)

Nintendo better hope the switch 2 is as big as the switch1 because they are alrdy 3rd in revenue and ppl really exaggerate their garbage software sales.

 

[AllBizness]

Nintendo better hope the switch 2 is as big as the switch1 because they are alrdy 3rd in revenue and ppl really exaggerate their garbage software sales.

I'm expecting Switch 2 to be $400. A $400 handheld is not going to sell more then Switch 1.

 

[Luffy123]

This is not good at all damn

 

[Boswollox]

3rd in revenue and ppl really exaggerate their garbage software sales

What is this tripe?

Anyway, time for a price drop for the switch.

 

[Danja]

So best selling console of all time by 2026

 

[BillyZ]

I'm expecting Switch 2 to be $400. A $400 handheld is not going to sell more then Switch 1.

It will when it's the only must own console on the market.

 

[KvallyX]

So best selling console of all time by 2026

Seems like it.

 

[akira__]

This is not good at all damn

No worries, rest assured the forum will sill be trolled by posters using Nintendo sale numbers.

 

[Kokoloko]

Nintendo better hope the switch 2 is as big as the switch1 because they are alrdy 3rd in revenue and ppl really exaggerate their garbage software sales.

It will be interesting generation for sure for them. They normally mess up after a successful generation but they might have smartened up and they have expanded in popularity.
They’re the most popular they have been, huge animated movie, theme parks etc etc. Highest selling games they’ve ever had. But things can change quickly with any company.

There games are probably gonna cost more now to develop. And not many Wii U, Wii, Gamecube ports left.
So it will be more challenging for 1st party development.
But maybe they have invested into studios wisely from all the profit they have made.

And depending how good the tech is, will it play majority of 3rd party games downscaled? Or will it be under powered to do so like the Switch 1

 

[Kokoloko]

Still surprised Smash has sold more than Zelda and Mario

 

[BroodCorp]

 

[Danja]

Seems like it.

And they did it without a price cut. Gotta commend them.

 

[Danja]

Still surprised Smash has sold more than Zelda and Mario

Zelda only blew up truly with Breath of the Wild. Smash has always been an evergreen but for the first time all Nintendo software sales were consolidated to one platform.

 

[Systemshock2023]

They gotta do a decent price drop and can squeeze at least 8M more. A good chunk of the switch user base does not care about more power

 

[Kokoloko]

Zelda only blew up truly with Breath of the Wild. Smash has always been an evergreen but for the first time all Nintendo software sales were consolidated to one platform.

Im still surprised, I didnt think Smash sells more than 10+ a couple of times before.

I remember buying the import for N64. The most expensive game we’d ever bought £90.
Me, my brother, a couple friends put the money together. Ended up playing it in Black and White because of the import/pal TV issues haha. We had a sleep over so we could all play

 

[Yurinka]

So best selling console of all time by 2026

If they achieve their current fiscal year forecast of 12.5M console, they'd be at 153.8M at the end of March 2025.

I assume they'll keep Switch 1 in the the market for over a year after the Switch 2 release, which seems will be released in 2025. So I assume they'll continue selling Switch 1 during at least the next FY, where they'd need to sell over 6.2M to be the best selling console of all time, something I think they can achieve that FY, meaning before March 2026.

I think that achieving the 160M or not will depend on when Switch 2 gets released and when Switch 1 gets discontinued. If they discontinue it just after releasing Switch 2 (something I think won't happen) wouldn't achieve the 160M.

In recent generations typically Sony kept supporting their consoles way longer after their succesor gets released than Nintendo or MS. But Switch is a rare case, because it's both a handheld and home console, has the portable console market for themselves and it's fair to assume Switch 2 will be BC, meaning to share shelf space on stores with Switch 1 won't be bad for Switch 2. So I assume they'll discontinue Switch 2 later than usual for Nintendo standards and pretty likely would end achieving >160M.

This is not good at all damn

These numbers normal. Console yearly sales of all consoles make a a curve during their lifetime. Meaning, in the later years of their life cycle they keep declining.

It's on track to be the best selling console ever, or minimum almost the best selling console ever. So its numbers are good.

Regarding their profits, they are pretty likely under a year before releasing their next generation, period where the profitability of console makers typically goes down because they are now spending a lot of money on R&D manufacturing the console and also preparing and funding the huge marketing campaign plus launch window games, stuff that obviously still isn't producing revenue.