Steamspy is incredibly inaccurate and should not be considered legitimate

[Jim Ryan]

Above shows how Steamspy overestimates sales figures for games and is not representative of what games actually manage to sell on steam.

Much like has-been seen with Playstation Ports. Steam fans said that the ports would make billions and behold a huge windfall for Sony, yet the sales are actually paltry.

 

[Yurinka]

There's no perfect magic formula to make estimations, but doing the reviews x 25 estimate gives 7.2M units sold for Palworld. Add around 10M PC users from GP, so the 15-18M users estimated by the other ones would match.

All he estimations have types of games where they make good estimates and other ones where they make very bad estimates. Steamspy is particularly bad with games who sold some millions, they often non-sensically skyrocket their estimates.

 

[Evilnemesis8]

Steamspy is like 90% of the times severely overestimating sales with 5% of the time severely underestimating sales(I don't know what causes that) and the other 5% of the time it's about the same as the other guesstimations.

TL;DR... Yeah Steamspy should almost never be trusted.

There's no perfect magic formula to make estimations, but doing the reviews x 25 estimate gives 7.2M units sold for Palworld. Add around 10M PC users from GP, so the 15-18M users estimated by the other ones would match.

All he estimations have types of games where they make good estimates and other ones where they make very bad estimates. Steamspy is particularly bad with games who sold some millions, they often non-sensically skyrocket their estimates.

We don't have to guess about Palworld's sales. Here's their last sales updates:


15M sales on Steam as of Feb 22nd would probably put it at 16.5-17M~ with late Feb/all of March sales.
Looking at the three other estimations, they are within that ballpark.

~15.19 M by Gamalytic
~16.31 M by PlayTracker
~18.16 M by VG Insights

Their copies sold milestones has always been solely about Steam sales.

 

[Yurinka]

15M sales on Steam as of Feb 22nd would probably put it at 16.5-17M~ with late Feb/all of March sales.
Looking at the three other estimations, they are within that ballpark.

~15.19 M by Gamalytic
~16.31 M by PlayTracker
~18.16 M by VG Insights

Their copies sold milestones has always been solely about Steam sales.

These are players (mosly from GP), not sales.

 

[Old Gamer]

Steamspy is not an oracle. Don't use it for estimates, use it for historical insights.

 

[ethomaz]

It was very accurate, and made their name, until Valve stopped to give them the actual numbers.
After that it become useless for any use.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I've been using this site instead which has a much more reasonable and accurate method for arriving at Steam sales numbers.

They have Palworld's Steam estimates at 15 million, which is their high-end and sounds about right. Even if it's a bit high by say 2-3 million, it's a lot closer than Steam Spy.

Seems the site's more well-known than I assumed going by the OP, so that's nice to see.