Bloomberg: Jason Schreier's five big predictions for 2024

Puff

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Switch 2 will have an unexpected twist
But I also think it will come with some strange quirk, be it unpleasant (charging fees for backwards compatibility with Switch games) or just plain weird (augmented reality integration). My longshot prediction: a more complicated console with a detachable screen for portable gaming.
Saudi Arabia will go big on gaming
I expect that it will continue to follow that path in 2024, making a big splash with the purchase of a major video-game developer or publisher. This will lead to some fallout. Many Western employees have strong feelings about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record. They’ll have to grapple with whether to stay at their jobs or venture into an uncertain market.
Consolidation will return
game companies are going to return to merging and acquiring. Potential buyers include Saudi Arabia and several US tech giants: Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Apple Inc. (Microsoft Corp. will stick with smaller moves rather than risk another drawn-out battle with regulators.) Potential sellers include Ubisoft Entertainment SA and Electronic Arts Inc. as well as a handful of mid-sized game companies, such as Borderlands-developer Gearbox Entertainment, which is on the market following the implosion of parent company Embracer Group AB.
Games as a service will face a reckoning
Sony’s PlayStation, which inexplicably said in 2022 that it planned to release ten live-service games in the next few years, will be the biggest victim of this collapse. It has already canceled several of its service games, and it’s reasonable to expect that more will follow.
The union effort will begin for real
The North American video-game industry is not unionized, although we’ve seen the beginnings of a few organization efforts at companies such as Activision and ZeniMax. I expect that to change significantly this year.
 

Evilnemesis8

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I can see most of these things happening in to some degree, yeah.

Switch 2 is going to have a something something.
Saudi Arabia is doubling down on its E-sports investment from 2022 and 2023 into 2024, so it's not farfetched to think they'll also get a medium to large publisher as well.
Consolidation was already happening, but now you've got a lot of players looking for lifelines to keep things afloat, some surprises could happen this year for sure.
GaaS has its giants, but we've seen a lot of big failures and reduced investment in projects the last 2~ years. Publishers are just going to be a bit more selective about what money scheme game they're going to back as their big hope for unlimited revenue.

Unions, well, can US workers take two seconds to recognize the power of their labour and finally push back against suits who treat them as disposable and actively are hostile to them in many ways? To be determined.
 

Sloane_Ranger

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Games as Service - Yeah a reckoning has been coming for a ong time. And Yeah!!!

Unions - No so much.

Saudia Arabia is interesting. I honestly see India first .. but that maybe just me.
 

Nhomnhom

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Almost everything implying Sony is doomed.

It's funny how every narrative always assumed MS strategy is correct while Sony is always making a big mistake.

Sony won't fail in their GaaS push because of the GaaS market, they'll fail because the idea was terrible to begin with and they are not suited for it.
 

Evilnemesis8

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Almost everything implying Sony is doomed.
It's funny how every narrative always assumed MS strategy is correct while Sony is always making a big mistake.
Sony won't fail in their GaaS push because of the GaaS market, they'll fail because the idea was terrible to begin with and they are not suited for it.

He's not saying they'll fail or that Sony is doomed though.

All Jason said in that blurb is that the industry in general will be more selective with their GaaS. This is a given because a lot of publishers were cutting cost all last year and I'm sure that will also have a ripple effect into at least the first half of this year as well.
He then specifies that PlayStation is one of the bigger publishers that will cut more more projects that they've already done, but that's only because of their incredibly ambitious of like 10+ GaaS by 2026 when you look at their initial 2022 roadmap.
If you're investing on the most GaaS projects at the same time, and then suddenly there's an industry shift, of course you're going to be one the "biggest victim".
 

Yurinka

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Jason is a clown who hates Sony, we already knew that.

All Jason said in that blurb is that the industry in general will be more selective with their GaaS.
There's no blurb in the industry, it keeps growing like every year.

He then specifies that PlayStation is one of the bigger publishers that will cut more more projects that they've already done, but that's only because of their incredibly ambitious of like 10+ GaaS by 2026 when you look at their initial 2022 roadmap.
If you're investing on the most GaaS projects at the same time, and then suddenly there's an industry shift, of course you're going to be one the "biggest victim".
What he said is:
"Sony’s PlayStation, which inexplicably said in 2022 that it planned to release ten live-service games in the next few years, will be the biggest victim of this collapse. It has already canceled several of its service games, and it’s reasonable to expect that more will follow."

As usual when Bloomberg talks about Sony, FUD and lies. Sony only cancelled ONE single GaaS, TLOU Online. Not "several". And they cancelled it just because the devs prefered to spend their resources somewhere else, not because any -FICTIONAL- collapse.

GaaS have the majority of players and generate the majority of game revenue. They have been growing for years and will continue growing.

Plus Sony didn't say the GaaS thing in 2022, they said it in 2021. And with the upcoming Helldivers 2 about to be released, they will have released 4 of them. Plus the cancelled one, there's 7 remaining ones, with a release date no longer fixed in maximum March 2026 because they have delayed the release of some of them.
 
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Nhomnhom

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He's not saying they'll fail or that Sony is doomed though.

All Jason said in that blurb is that the industry in general will be more selective with their GaaS. This is a given because a lot of publishers were cutting cost all last year and I'm sure that will also have a ripple effect into at least the first half of this year as well.
He then specifies that PlayStation is one of the bigger publishers that will cut more more projects that they've already done, but that's only because of their incredibly ambitious of like 10+ GaaS by 2026 when you look at their initial 2022 roadmap.
If you're investing on the most GaaS projects at the same time, and then suddenly there's an industry shift, of course you're going to be one the "biggest victim".
Acquisitions by everyone but Sony.
GaaS crash that will hurt Sony the most.
 
24 Jun 2022
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Xbox won't buy anything big for a while. Just small stuff

They won't be buying anything big ever again (in gaming). Shareholders will want to see results finally for Zenimax & ABK, and that will take a long time to prove. By the time such proving's done, other big gaming companies will either be off the table due to other M&As, or competitors holding large percentages of shares & investments in them.

One of said competitors will be Sony, but inn what mixture & capacity is open to interpretation for the time being.

Sounds like sony needs to ask the bank of Japan for a loan.

As usual you are way too easily pessimistic when it comes to PlayStation :/

Acquisitions by everyone but Sony.
GaaS crash that will hurt Sony the most.

TBF Sony's GaaS strategy needed a culling anyway, especially if they are doubling down on more traditional AAA (and AA) games. Their PC porting strategy also needs a heavy culling, we'll see how that goes after HFW's release I suppose.

I don't care for whatever context Jason wants to imply in his reporting, but I wouldn't say culling & revamping the GaaS focus "hurts" Sony. If anything they'd be one of the quickest to adjust as they've shown exemplary ability in adjusting in the past to other major shifts (external & internal).
 
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ethomaz

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He made good predictions like usual… I don’t know his track record with predictions.

He is right about Sony… Jumbo invested too much in GAAS and everybody here talked about that in one way or another and it didn’t delivered and now with the cancelled GAAS games Sony is changing strategy (again) for good reasons.

It won’t be surprise that this GAAS focus is one of the reasons (together with PC port strategy) Sony highs stepped Jimbo down.

I think Sony can let GAAS to these with expeets (Bungie) and use the others studios to delivery amazing single-player AAA.
 

Say1nMan

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The idea of us being charged a fee for backward compatibility for Switch games on Switch 2 is hella crazy. Lol. More so if the Switch 2 is indeed more of a revision/iteration than a revolution.