[My estimates]
Heya; so for Nintendo's numbers, I know Statista has it at "more than 36 million" current NSO subscribers, so considering the basic price is $20 for a year of NSO, that means their 2022 revenue was likely at least $720 million off the service. That IS assuming everyone has an annual sub (technically speaking some could have 1-month subs or 3-month subs at the time the total sub count was tallied), but I'd assume given the cost savings for a 1-year sub vs. 12 1-month subs ($20 vs $48), I doubt any significant number of people are choosing the shorter-duration amounts.
There's also the fact some people will be subbed to NSO+, which is more expensive than base NSO. Same for the Family Plan. Honestly I can't claim what likelihood there is of people paying for a 1-year NSO sub vs. the Family Plan vs NSO+. I guess just to be safe, and conservative, let's say 80% of the subs are the 1-year NSO, 10% are on the Family Plan, 5% are NSO+ and the last 5% are non-committals (1-month, 3-month subs, etc.).
So...
NSO: 28.8 million * $20 = $576,000,000
Family Plan: 3.6 million * $35 = $126,000,000
NSO+: 1.8 million * $50 = $90,000,000
Non-Committals: 1.8 million * $6 (average of 1-month and 3-month) = $10,800,000
The sum of that would be $802,800,000. Again I'm being conservative in the NSO+ and Family Plan amounts in particular, and could be slightly undershooting the non-committals, but I do think the vast majority of NSO subs would be the basic 1-year annual offer.
So, if using that as a working example, can add it to the Sony #s you provided and it gives us $3,960,465,787. That leaves the remaining
$3,839,534,213 for Xbox services. But that is "Xbox services" as in both Gold and Game Pass itself, and again that's just with including the working Nintendo services revenue numbers I threw up; there's a high chance I'm lowballing Nintendo's numbers by maybe $100 million or so.
In
FACT....I just found something really interesting...
this source that shows that in the CADE leak, for 2021 NSO made up 31% of Nintendo's $3.054 billion software revenue for that year, off a base of 32 million subscribers. In other words, that
$946.74 million from NSO alone that year! Scaled to 32 million subscribers, that gives you $29.585625 per sub.
Assuming there's no real reason that per-sub ARPU would drop over the course of a year, and that NSO saw 4 million additional subs in 2022, then a good baseline to figure 2022 NSO revenue at would be ~ $1.065 billion. So we should probably move forward with that number, actually.
$3,157,665,787 + $1,065,082,500 = $4,222,748,287. Reduce that from the $7.8 billion and that leaves $3,577,251,713 for Xbox services. Now we know there's been some transfer from Gold subs to Game Pass, but there are
STILL some people on Gold, and it has to be a decent number. I'm having a really difficult time finding any reports for Xbox Live sub counts; MS stopped reporting XBL subscriber counts
YEARS ago, and if you want a picture of things prior to Game Pass, you have to go all the way back to 2017.
One number I came across was 2017 sub counts being at 52 million. That included XBL Gold and Silver, so I think we can be safe and go 50/50 on that; 26 million Gold, 26 million Silver. I think due to Game Pass over the years, that Gold number would have probably come down by at least 50%, to 13 million, and let's just say they are all $40 annual discount subs.
That would bring XBL Gold sub revenue at $520 million. So the $3.577 billion already drops down to $3,057,251,713. But...there is also Elder Scrolls Online
.
AND Fallout '76. Both of those have paid subs of the "premium" tier, but otherwise you only need a base sub (XBL Gold, Game Pass, PS+ etc.) in order to play them online. I'm going to assume the vast majority of people who get the premium subs for either are getting them for the whole year, but I'd also say that only at
most 25% of the total player bases of both games are subbed to the premium tiers. BUT, those premium tiers would be counted in the subscription revenue for Xbox, now that Zenimax revenue is rolled into the Xbox division's.
ESO's sub count in 2022 was around 22 million. Its premium sub cost is ~ $140 a year (monthly cost reduces to $11.67). Fallout '76's sub count in 2022 was around 13.5 million. Their premium sub (Fallout 1st) costs $99 for a year sub. I'd assume most people subbing to the premium tier of either game is paying for a year-round sub, but maybe 10% are non-committals, so we'll just reduce them from the revenue count.
ESO: 22,000,000 * .25 = 5,500,000 * $140 = $770,000,000 * .9 = $693,000,000
Fallout '76: 13,500,000 * .25 = 3,375,000 * $99 = $334,125,000 * .9 = $300,712,500
Combined, ESO & Fallout '76 would account for another $993,712,500 of Xbox's services revenue. Again, these ESO+ and Fallout 1st estimates are my own, assuming only a portion of the sub bases for both would be on the premium subs, but those who are, the vast majority would be in for the whole year via the annual sub options (some small portion may only check them out for a month or two before dropping it, some extreme ones would pay the whole year through the monthly cost, but I'm ignoring those and cutting 10% off the totals in those instances as a result).
Altogether, the $3,577,251,713 that is left for Xbox when removing the Sony and (probable) Nintendo services numbers are reduced to
$2,063,539,213 for Game Pass when you
ALSO remove the (probable) XBL Gold, ESO+ and Fallout 1st services revenues. At least, that's what I feel comfortable with rolling on. Assuming sub count is still where they last reported, 25 million, then the ARPU from Game Pass is $82.54. That's almost $40 below the regular yearly asking price for basic Game Pass, and about $97.46 under the asking price of Game Pass Ultimate. But more troubling would be just how low that total revenue for Game Pass actually is.
Could go into speculation from here on with that point but this was already way longer than I intended it to be
. Anyway if you have some insights off what's been shared, feel free to send them through. Or if you can find better sources for XBL MAUS prior to Game Pass in older fiscal reports, that'd be appreciated as well. Hope this has been useful!