"NPD Analysis March: Dragon's Dogma 2 at No 1, FFVII Rebirth at 7th"

[John Elden Ring]

Key Points:

• Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth currently ranks 14th across all Final Fantasy releases in lifetime dollar sales in the US market. Final Fantasy XV is 1st all-time, followed by Final Fantasy VII: Remake and the original Final Fantasy VII
• Helldivers II remains the best-selling premium game of 2024 year-to-date after placing 2nd in March. Helldivers II currently ranks 7th in lifetime US dollar sales for Sony published titles after just two months in market.
• The PlayStation Dual Sense Edge was the best-selling accessory in dollar sales during both March and the first quarter.
• PlayStation 5 led the hardware market in unit and dollar sales during both March and the first quarter. Nintendo Switch once again finished 2nd in unit sales across both time periods while Xbox Series ranked 2nd in dollars.
• February video game hardware spending fell 32% when compared to a year ago, to $391 million. PlayStation 5, Xbox Series and Switch spending each declined a minimum of 30% year-on-year. Hardware spending finished the first quarter down 24% versus the first quarter of 2023.

Rankings
Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

March 2024 Top 10 Best-Selling Premium Games on Xbox Platforms - U.S. (Dollar Sales, Physical and Digital from digital data sharing publishers, excludes add-on content)

March 2024 Top 20 Best-Selling Premium Games - U.S. (Dollar Sales, Physical and Digital from digital data sharing publishers, excludes add-on content)

March 2024 Top 10 Best-Selling Premium Games on Xbox Platforms - U.S. (Dollar Sales, Physical and Digital from digital data sharing publishers, excludes add-on content)

March 2024 Top 10 Best-Selling Premium Games on Nintendo Platforms - U.S. (Dollar Sales, Physical and Digital from digital data sharing publishers, excludes add-on content)

March 2024 U.S. Video Game Market Highlights from Circana - Projected total US spending on video game hardware, content and accessories gained 4% in March 2024 vs YA, reaching $4.9B. Mobile content spending grew 15%, offseting a 32% drop in hardware. (Mobile source: Sensor Tower)

 

[voke]

great sales all around for rebirth, dogma and ronin.

one of my favorite q1s in a long time tbh, so much greatness

 

[Gods&Monsters]

Keep in mind the Twin Pack for Rebirth (that was high enough to appear in the ranking last month) is not counted in the total sales so half the launch sales are missing because of that.

It must be higher than Dragons Dogma on the yearly chart at number 3.

 

[Yurinka]

Helldivers II currently ranks 7th in lifetime US dollar sales for Sony published titles after just two months in market.

Holy fuck, this is very democratic: in 2 months already made more money in the US than any other Sony published game in history with the exception of 6 titles.

Very well deserved, it's a masterpiece.

 

[Gods&Monsters]

Rise of the Ronin already sold more than Yakuza and Yakuza was supposed to be this huge multiplat success story

An exclusive that didn't set the world on fire already sold more in 2 weeks than a multiplat after 2+ months. Is anyone pointing this out? Journalists, influencers?

 

[Dabaus]

So despite all the propaganda and rumors FF7 is doing ok after all? Its almost like there was a concerted effort to paint the game as a failure because it wasnt on a particular green box.

 

[Dabaus]

Rise of the Ronin already sold more than Yakuza and Yakuza was supposed to be this huge multiplat success story

Also Atlus is supposedly leading the way on showing us the benefits of multiplatform release and yet ff7 sits above it.

 

[ethomaz]

NPD again showed the decline of FF franchise… Rebirth is below Dragon Dogma 2 in 2024 and at the bottom of the franchise sales.

Dragon Dogma 2 selling better than Rebirth in all major region shipped at launch 2.5 million.

That out Rebirth probably at 2 million (maybe 2.5m if they over shipped like FFXVI) shipment at launch that is a disaster for a FF game.

 

[Gods&Monsters]

Also Atlus is supposedly leading the way on showing us the benefits of multiplatform release and yet ff7 sits above it.

The reality goes against the narrative for both Rebirth and Rise of the Ronin but sadly PS fans are not organized and loud enough to counter it

 

[ethomaz]

Side not Sony is finally starting to focus more in PS5 DE.

Shipping 39% is huge news… it is closing to reach near half of production.

 

[Evilnemesis8]

Rise of the Ronin already sold more than Yakuza and Yakuza was supposed to be this huge multiplat success story

An exclusive that didn't set the world on fire already sold more in 2 weeks than a multiplat after 2+ months. Is anyone pointing this out? Journalists, influencers?

It's a launch success story for the franchise.
Nobody is expecting it to sell anywhere close to Rise of the Ronin(unless they're delusional franchise fans/console warriors).

Also Atlus is supposedly leading the way on showing us the benefits of multiplatform release and yet ff7 sits above it.

FF is the premier selling JRPG franchise and will remain so. Maybe Persona 6(or Dragon Quest 12) will surprise us, but until then, there's no contest even with a multiplat approach.

 

[ethomaz]

With that split PS5 should be easily over 500k units with that 30% drop is in revenue.

PS5 was cheaper in March 2024 and the PS5 DE split near doubled compared with March 2023.

Won’t be a surprise if it is closer to 600k.

That is amazing.

 

[Gods&Monsters]

It's a launch success story for the franchise.
Nobody is expecting it to sell anywhere close to Rise of the Ronin(unless they're delusional franchise fans/console warriors).

I disagree. Nioh was smaller than Yakuza as a franchise and nobody thought a new IP like Ronin was going to surpass Yakuza easily.

Ronin was regarded as a flop until the report from Tecmo yesterday and now this NPD proves it already sold more than Yakuza. I'm shocked because you would never believe this after reading the online discourse.

I bet they will continue to say Ronin and Rebirth needs PC to survive

 

[Gediminas]

I disagree. Nioh was smaller than Yakuza as a franchise and nobody thought a new IP like Ronin was going to surpass Yakuza easily.

Ronin was regarded as a flop until the report from Tecmo yesterday and now this NPD proves it already sold more than Yakuza. I'm shocked because you would never believe this after reading the online discourse.

I bet they will continue to say Ronin and Rebirth needs PC to survive

they are all xbots. after they trash and burned xbox, now they are on working agenda to do the same with PS.

 

[Evilnemesis8]

Keep in mind the Twin Pack for Rebirth (that was high enough to appear in the ranking last month) is not counted in the total sales so half the launch sales are missing because of that.

It must be higher than Dragons Dogma on the yearly chart at number 3.

Just because I'm seeing some chatter... the Final Fantasy VII Remake & Rebirth Twin Pack is tracked separately from Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth.
However, even were all Twin Pack sales allocated solely to Rebirth the year-to-date sales rankings would not change.

With that split PS5 should be easily over 500k units with that 30% drop is in revenue.

PS5 was cheaper in March 2024 and the PS5 DE split near doubled compared with March 2023.

Won’t be a surprise if it is closer to 600k.

That is amazing.

Something like 550-560k~ probably.

I disagree. Nioh was smaller than Yakuza as a franchise and nobody thought a new IP like Ronin was going to surpass Yakuza easily.

I did though, but that's because I'm a sales nerd(lmao).

Best Selling Yakuza game is Yakuza 0 and looking at SteamDB and consoles sales, it's probably at 4.XM copies sold.

As of the Sega Sammy November 2023(so probably Quarter ending in September?)the franchise as whole sold 21.3M
Most of the games in the series didn't even crack a million especially when it was more JP and then Asia centric in terms of sales.


The reason I say I did expect it is because another entity is expecting it to sell more(it's Bandai Namco).
Here's the CEOs expectation:

According to Koei Tecmo’s corporate website, one of their key goals is to sell 5 million units of a new IP, which was later confirmed to be Rise of the Ronin. In an interview with Famitsu back in May 2023, Koei Tecmo’s CEO Hisashi Koinuma reiterated that the company’s mid-term management strategy was to release titles that could meet the 5-million-unit benchmark. He went on to explain that the Nioh series sold 7 million units worldwide, with the company utilizing their past
experience to come up with game development strategies that will allow them to aim for higher sales goals. Koinuma added that “Ultimately, our goal is to create a title in the 10-million-unit class”. It seems that Rise of the Ronin’s 5-million sales goal is one of the stepping stones towards even bigger Koei Tecmo games in the future.

Their lifetime expectations for the game is 5M and in the future they're aiming to keep making 5M sellers and work their way to making 10M sellers(good luck to them). That intended goal by Bandai Namco is better selling than any Yakuza games, even Yakuza 0, which is by far the bests selling in the franchise by quite a significant amount.

 

[ethomaz]

Even with Twin pack added it won’t be ahead Dragon Dogma 2.

 

[voke]

I think mat comes here to specifically read your posts @Gods&Monsters

 

[Puff]

March 2024

PS5: 525K
NSW: 235K
XBS: 205K

Estimations for 2024

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
Jan-24	425,000	210,000	250,000
Feb-24	410,000	195,000	220,000
Mar-24	525,000	205,000	235,000
Total-24	1,360,000	610,000	705,000

Full Estimations for 2023

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
Jan-23	430,000	200,000	280,000
Feb-23	560,000	240,000	290,000
Mar-23	660,000	280,000	340,000
Apr-23	360,000	180,000	420,000
May-23	270,000	160,000	450,000
Jun-23	430,000	240,000	350,000
Jul-23	270,000	160,000	240,000
Aug-23	400,000	210,000	200,000
Sep-23	490,000	300,000	200,000
Oct -23	370,000	200,000	210,000
Nov - 23	1,050,000	580,000	570,000
Dec - 23	1,530,000	1,130,000	1,250,000
2023	6,830,000	3,880,000	4,800,000
LTD	18,730,000	13,580,000	44,210,000

 

[Evilms]

 

[Gods&Monsters]

I think mat comes here to specifically read your posts @Gods&Monsters

Oh yes he does. He definitely remembers my username