Okay then. We can assume 8 million were sold by March 31st (which is realistic), 60/40 PC/PS5 at least, and 15% averaged cut to Valve. That's $163 million. $20 average in MTX per user is $96 million. $163 million + $96 million is $259 million.
Which still means Helldivers 2, a surprise breakout hit, account for well over half of their PC FY revenue target. And that all the new ports in FY '23, plus legacy sales of ports from years prior, plus Destiny 2...would have likely accounted for under $200 million in total revenue. So at least a $50 million drop compared to their FY '22 PC revenue.
To be specific, this is how Steam's revenue cut works:
- First $10M made by the game: Steam gets 30%
- Sales in the pportion where the game has made between $10M-50M: Steam gets 25%
- Sales after the game has made over $50M: 20%
- Maybe in some fantasy world, but not in reality and not in the numbers reported by Sony: 15%
But yes, to assume 8M units until March 31 and 60% of it being from PC (so 4.8M units) sounds realistic. For the experiment let's assume that refunded/chargeback copies already were removed from there, so it's a final 8M.
8M copies sold at $39.99 (price is different/mostly cheaper depending on the country and currency, but let's assume this price as average) this is $319.92M paid by users.
Let's be generous/optimistic and assuming that with Super Citizen Edition + first Warbond + IAP the game made an average of $5/user in addons. This is an extra $40M more.
$319.92M (game, ignoring cheaper pricings) + $40M (addons, too optimistic estimate) = $359.92M paid by users in PC until March 31 (too optimistic estimate)
From here let's calculate and remove Steam's cut:
- First $10M (30% of 10M): $3M
- From $10M to $50 (25% of $40M): $10M
- Over $50M (20% of $319.92M): $63.98M
- $359.92M - $63.98M - $10M - $3M = $282.94M
Again, this would be an unrealisticly high estimate. Removing from there a portion of the cheaper countries and also another one from maybe too optimistic addons estimate I assume what Sony got is something similar to the $259M you mentioned, or maybe even under it.
We don't know which portion of the $679.4M reported as "other software" is PC, we assume that something above estimated $450M, with $259M not being "a vast majority of it" as you said.
As reference, in FY22 (which unlike FY23 it had a Destiny 2 release) Sony made $250M in PC and 67,725 million yen (not sure back then, but today this is $437.17M. So in FY22 they did outside PS and PC $187.17M.
In FY23, without Destiny 2 release and with Lightfall according to people here (I'd bet there is no official source) underperforming, I'd say that if this is true their Xbox+Switch revenue for FY23 should be smaller than that.
Meaning, if true their PC FY23 revenue should be higher than $679.4M - $187.17M = $492.23M
In fact, now I remember that the $250M for PC in FY22 was counting Bungie only since the acquisition, but the "other software" counted the whole FY22. So their PC FY23 revenue should be even higher than this $492M.
By that logic, you have to either accept that it was non-PC platforms that contributed the majority of their multiplatform revenue
This wasn't the case at all in previous years, so it will be even less this one with Helldivers 2.
In FY22 counting Bungie only since acquisition the did $250M on PC (counting them since the start would have been higher, probably the $300M they estimated) and (counting Bungie for the whole FY, not only since acquisition) they did $187.17M in Xbox+Switch.
But that FY22 included a Destiny 2 release, and FY23 didn't have it (was delayed a few months to FY24).
The fact the performance of other PC games outside of Helldivers 2 wasn't even mentioned suggests those other games underperformed.
PC specific revenue isn't mentioned in their FY/quarters earnings announcement, which is what had yesterday. It's mentioned in their Business Segment Meeting (coming May 30th).
Apparently they'll achieve their $450M estimate and maybe outperfom it.
Destiny 2 was 45% off Bungie's own forecast
Source, please? Sounds like a totally made up number.
