DFC Intelligence expects PS to extend their lead over MS in game hardware and software revenue during the next 2 years

[Yurinka]

I received the DFC Intelligence newsletter mail that I think many of you will find interesting. This is the web version but not sure if it is going to work for you:

https://madmimi.com/p/b3a3e51?pact=...0291-6769c5a2ee54442f87754c10f3776af7646209e3

Full mail quoted:

It is no secret that in recent years Microsoft has made a significant investment in beefing up its internal video game software development. However, since the 2020 launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S, Sony has been ahead when it comes to notable first-party software. This may be changing going forward as some big-name exclusives are scheduled to launch for Xbox platforms.

As PlayStation 5 shortages ease, the new DFC Intelligence forecastshave Sony extending its lead over Microsoft in video game hardware. Even when revenue from Game Pass is included, software revenue over the next two years for PlayStation platforms is expected to be about 1.7 times greater than Xbox software revenue (not including PC games).

DFC Intelligence 2023 Video Game Market Forecast. Revenue includes software and online services revenue, including subscription services and third-party revenue. Only includes dedicated PlayStation and Xbox revenue. Hardware revenue is not included.


The big caveat is that DFC Intelligence forecasts are closely tied to upcoming software and the current lineup indicates that the gap between PlayStation and Xbox exclusives is closing. This is not even considering the potential for Microsoft to own Activision Blizzard.

The DFC upcoming game database tracks the potential for the top 200 upcoming video games. This has been a tough task with so many product delays. However, it is clear that in 2023 Xbox has more notable exclusives than PlayStation. This is a reverse of 2022 when the heavy hitters were for PlayStation 5.

Among the top 200 games, 26 are for Xbox Series X/S and not PlayStation 5 versus 22 PlayStation 5 only titles (this does not include games also on PC or Switch). Software delays mean major Xbox-only titles like Redfall and Starfield will be hitting this year. The downside of Sony getting its games out on time in 2022 is the 2023 lineup is thin.

This list is from the March 2023 version of the regularly updated database of the top 200 upcoming video games from late 2022 through 2024

Of course, the big question is will these major titles be enough to encourage consumers to buy an Xbox Series X/S over a PlayStation 5. Currently, DFC Intelligence believes the answer is no. These titles have been anticipated for some time and presumably have been factored into purchase decisions. On the contrary, if a title like Starfield does not meet expectations it could hurt Xbox Series X/S sales.

The bigger long-term issue is the role software exclusives will continue to play in a multi-platform environment. Right now core gamers can buy a PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch and subscribe to Game Pass to play major Xbox titles on PC. There is not a major need for buying Xbox hardware.

It is also important to note that companies like Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard are focused on ongoing live service games, versus releasing new games. These games tend to be multi-platform. Thus, exclusives are a major driver for picking a specific hardware platform. Nintendo has definitely learned that lesson.

Obviously, the Activision Blizzard acquisition could go a long way toward balancing the competitive landscape. Right now, it is looking like the deal will go through. If it is not approved, Microsoft’s position in the video game industry will be in jeopardy. Yes, Xbox has some big exclusives in the pipeline but currently, they are not enough to chop into the PlayStation market share.

The new DFC console forecasts have just been released. For a full discussion of these issues and recent company performance, see the latest DFC Intelligence quarterly video game market overview.

DFC Intelligence is your go to research partner for video gaming industry analysis. Our studies and Executive Briefs provide top shelf market analysis and forecasts of the video gaming market for customers throughout the video gaming landscape.

For the latest company performance check out the DFC Intelligence Video Game Stock Index and Video Game Stock Portfolio

For more information on DFC Intelligence surveys and panels go here.

The latest DFC Intelligence reports on the PC game industry are available now. This includes a full report with profiles and analysis as well as forecasts that are also available individually.

The latest DFC forecasts for console game hardware and software is available now.

 

[Johnic]

Kind of have a hard time believing 3rd party info these days, what with MS " lobbying" and all. Especially info with a timing like this.

Especially since it sounds like it's a piece written my MS themselves. "If it is not approved, Microsoft’s position in the video game industry will be in jeopardy." Please. They have more studios than Sony and can pump 5 times more into developing games. This "poor man MS" is ridiculous. Stop complaining and start releasing games. Easy fix.

 

[VillaiN]

MS shill article. Its obvious at this point. Company 20x bigger, with more studios cant compete. Just lol.

 

[Gods&Monsters]

Oh so that's where you got your arguments.

Usual propaganda. Sony is fine so MS can buy everything to compete. Sad that people fell for this shit and it's the accepted narrative.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I wonder if that report accounts for any of the major 3P publisher acquisitions Microsoft have been making, are currently trying to complete, and will undoubtedly be seeking to do more of within those same 2-3 years.

Because anyone who thinks that won't affect Sony's market power or long-term outlook, that they can just proceed with things as normal, is being a brainlet. Again I don't cheerlead acquisitions but the reality is Sony are going to have to lock down a couple big publishers of their own if they don't want companies like Microsoft running away with control of many of the biggest IP in the market, because that weakens Sony as a platform holder.

Oh so that's where you got your arguments.

Usual propaganda. Sony is fine so MS can buy everything to compete. Sad that people fell for this shit and it's the accepted narrative.

If you take a quick look at the ResetERA thread about Sony's acquisition & partnership strategies, guess which posters are stinking it up arguing Sony can't or won't acquire any big developers or publishers (especially Japanese ones)?

Tigerfish, Sullivan, writhingcorpse897...these same people who cheerlead for the MS/ABK acquisition in the other thread...conveniently don't seem to want to entertain a possibility of Sony acquisitions in response? What a surprise! All of their logic falls apart, too, as one'd expect.

Then there are parts from posts like this one from Katbobo:

Also I wonder if Capcom is as easy of a buy as people think. They're not anywhere near as expensive as other publishers, but i'd argue they're becoming one of the most important 3rd party publishers to where Microsoft & regulators might object to the purchase because their games have a pretty big presence on Xbox lately. If Microsoft suddenly lost access to all of Capcom's games that'd be a pretty damaging loss. I think there'd absolutely be forclosure concerns there.

Now I don't know where this person leans so I can't assume anything, however what they've just stated in the bolded is factually incorrect. Yes there are more Capcom games coming to Xbox but that's kind of because Capcom are making more games in general so by that same measure there are more Capcom games coming to PlayStation as well. And the "presence" of certain games like the recent Monster Hunter release in Game Pass are only due to Microsoft paying out-of-pocket for the game in the service.

When you look at what actually matters, software sales and revenue, Xbox is a shockingly small part of Capcom's overall revenue pipeline. We know this from financial results, so I don't know how this person didn't know of that already or keep it in mind when making this statement. A little research goes a long way.

 

[Zzero]

Both current gen consoles are getting exactly 37 games that their lastgen counterparts aren't. A step in the right direction but still way too low. IMO.

edit: Also it says that EA is pivoting towards live services and I definitely disagree with that.

 

[Bryank75]

'Thus, exclusives are a major driver for picking a specific hardware platform. Nintendo has definitely learned that lesson.'

Basically what I say every other day.... so cancel all the PS PC ports of exclusives.

It has to be this way to protect the value of the games and the market position of Sony / PlayStation.

 

[Gods&Monsters]

If you take a quick look at the ResetERA thread about Sony's acquisition & partnership strategies, guess which posters are stinking it up arguing Sony can't or won't acquire any big developers or publishers (especially Japanese ones)?

Tigerfish, Sullivan, writhingcorpse897...these same people who cheerlead for the MS/ABK acquisition in the other thread...conveniently don't seem to want to entertain a possibility of Sony acquisitions in response? What a surprise! All of their logic falls apart, too, as one'd expect.

Sullivan and co are all using Xbox warriors rhetoric like the 98% and "high-end console market" to say Sony has a monopoly and can't acquire. They are no better than Twitter warriors.

 

[Killer_Sakoman]

I wonder if that report accounts for any of the major 3P publisher acquisitions Microsoft have been making, are currently trying to complete, and will undoubtedly be seeking to do more of within those same 2-3 years.

Because anyone who thinks that won't affect Sony's market power or long-term outlook, that they can just proceed with things as normal, is being a brainlet. Again I don't cheerlead acquisitions but the reality is Sony are going to have to lock down a couple big publishers of their own if they don't want companies like Microsoft running away with control of many of the biggest IP in the market, because that weakens Sony as a platform holder.



If you take a quick look at the ResetERA thread about Sony's acquisition & partnership strategies, guess which posters are stinking it up arguing Sony can't or won't acquire any big developers or publishers (especially Japanese ones)?

Tigerfish, Sullivan, writhingcorpse897...these same people who cheerlead for the MS/ABK acquisition in the other thread...conveniently don't seem to want to entertain a possibility of Sony acquisitions in response? What a surprise! All of their logic falls apart, too, as one'd expect.

Then there are parts from posts like this one from Katbobo:



Now I don't know where this person leans so I can't assume anything, however what they've just stated in the bolded is factually incorrect. Yes there are more Capcom games coming to Xbox but that's kind of because Capcom are making more games in general so by that same measure there are more Capcom games coming to PlayStation as well. And the "presence" of certain games like the recent Monster Hunter release in Game Pass are only due to Microsoft paying out-of-pocket for the game in the service.

When you look at what actually matters, software sales and revenue, Xbox is a shockingly small part of Capcom's overall revenue pipeline. We know this from financial results, so I don't know how this person didn't know of that already or keep it in mind when making this statement. A little research goes a long way.

Only thing that can re-balance the market if this deal goes on is for Sony to acquire T2. GTA vs CoD.
I am do not know if this is possible. I don't think it is possible

 

[Nhomnhom]

Xbox has no chance to do anything this gen, in the best case scenario they'll match the Xbox One numbers. MS clearly was not ready for this generation and they are already looking into the next one where they could potentially be in a much better position.

'Thus, exclusives are a major driver for picking a specific hardware platform. Nintendo has definitely learned that lesson.'

Basically what I say every other day.... so cancel all the PS PC ports of exclusives.

It has to be this way to protect the value of the games and the market position of Sony / PlayStation.

But then Sony would lose the support from all the master race pirates that spend big bucks on GPUs to play PlayStation games that get cracked on PC day one and that still hate on Sony online.

 

[Yurinka]

Only thing that can re-balance the market if this deal goes on is for Sony to acquire T2. GTA vs CoD.
I am do not know if this is possible. I don't think it is possible

There's nothing to rebalance. Sony will continue being almost twice as big than MS+CoD.

 

[Nhomnhom]

There's nothing to rebalance. Sony will continue being almost twice as big than MS+CoD.

PlayStation won't be twice as big as Xbox Bethesda Activision Blizzard King without making so big acquisitions of their own.

 

[Yurinka]

PlayStation won't be twice as big as Xbox Bethesda Activision Blizzard King without making so big acquisitions of their own.

It already is. Over or around twice consoles sold, games sold, game subs sold, MAU...

Regarding the whole gaming revenue PS will continue being bigger than MS. And if you remove from ABK+Zenimax the users/revenue/profit from PS in some of their biggest IPs the distance will be bigger.

 

[Bryank75]

PlayStation won't be twice as big as Xbox Bethesda Activision Blizzard King without making so big acquisitions of their own.

Depends what metrics we are using.... I strongly believe that PlayStation as a console will sell more than twice what Xbox does. As long as they stop putting big exclusives on PC of course.

If we are looking at revenue, Sony should be bigger in gaming by around 20%...... it may be lower if everything goes the way MSFT wants.

For instance, if Sony blocks or buries Activision Blizzard games on PSN, then Sony will take a small hit but the hit is much larger for Activision and Xbox....
In this circumstance, MSFT has to subsidize Gamepass and COD development and has no income from game sales on PlayStation to cushion the losses. After a few years it would be hard to justify keeping it on Gamepass or making a COD game each year.

 

[Killer_Sakoman]

There's nothing to rebalance. Sony will continue being almost twice as big than MS+CoD.

Assuming Microsoft won't bring the downfall of CoD.

 

[Nhomnhom]

Depends what metrics we are using.... I strongly believe that PlayStation as a console will sell more than twice what Xbox does. As long as they stop putting big exclusives on PC of course.

If we are looking at revenue, Sony should be bigger in gaming by around 20%...... it may be lower if everything goes the way MSFT wants.

For instance, if Sony blocks or buries Activision Blizzard games on PSN, then Sony will take a small hit but the hit is much larger for Activision and Xbox....
In this circumstance, MSFT has to subsidize Gamepass and COD development and has no income from game sales on PlayStation to cushion the losses. After a few years it would be hard to justify keeping it on Gamepass or making a COD game each year.

Console sales are set for this gen but that as we know can quickly change come next gen. If MS was to get close to 50% market share with all their current advantages like dev count, willingness to spend money, popular IPs, services, etc.

Sony is also due a series of fumbles or a drought at some point some point, MS will be there ready to pounce and they'll not hesitate to snuff out Sony by going all in on third party deals on top of their current strategy once they close the gap.

 

[Yobo]

They overstate that purchasing behaviour is dictated by upcoming release schedules, if that were the case Sony and Nintendo would be in big trouble because they often don't reveal their games until shortly before release

They also overestimate awareness of these release schedules. Starfield having an impact won't be known until word of mouth and reviews start dropping. Awareness that PlayStation no longer has access to titles like Elder Scrolls won't be a factor until the game is out and your more casual gamer realises the PlayStation copy doesn't exist.

 

[Nhomnhom]

They overstate that purchasing behaviour is dictated by upcoming release schedules, if that were the case Sony and Nintendo would be in big trouble because they often don't reveal their games until shortly before release

They also overestimate awareness of these release schedules. Starfield having an impact won't be known until word of mouth and reviews start dropping. Awareness that PlayStation no longer has access to titles like Elder Scrolls won't be a factor until the game is out and your more casual gamer realises the PlayStation copy doesn't exist.

This behavior is pretty recent, the first half of PS4 was driven in a lot of ways by pure hype and expectations. PS5 is benefiting a lot from expectation that Sony will continue their streak and damn if they aren't being completely secretive and studios are taking too damn long to show their hand.

 

[Bryank75]

Console sales are set for this gen but that as we know can quickly change come next gen. If MS was to get close to 50% market share with all their current advantages like dev count, willingness to spend money, popular IPs, services, etc.

Sony is also due a series of fumbles or a drought at some point some point, MS will be there ready to pounce and they'll not hesitate to snuff out Sony by going all in on third party deals on top of their current strategy once they close the gap.

For all their advantages, they are still incompetent....

They released Hifi Rush, Pentiment and had plenty of Day 1 third party stuff on Gamepass.... nobody cared.

They can take COD off playstation or Sony can tell them to shove it.... people will move to other stuff this gen and get weened off the COD coke.

I think Sony need to just focus on buying some IP's that make PlayStations offerings more consistent in terms of historic cache and making releases hit about 4 times annually or 3 at the least....

When someone puts PS titles right beside Xbox ones, they should immediately recognize the PS ones are superior...

Any type of combination of the following: Square, Capcom / Kadokawa, Square / Capcom, Kadokawa and then maybe add something like CDPR, Remedy or IOI to the mix.


Sony has a lot of work to do on their PR and customer friendliness..... They should have a live showcase or PSX, they should put Shu and other executives front and center as approachable and in touch with the fans and they should review their refund policy.

I think all of these things would be major steps forward for PlayStation.

 

[Nhomnhom]

For all their advantages, they are still incompetent....

They released Hifi Rush, Pentiment and had plenty of Day 1 third party stuff on Gamepass.... nobody cared.

They can take COD off playstation or Sony can tell them to shove it.... people will move to other stuff this gen and get weened off the COD coke.

I think Sony need to just focus on buying some IP's that make PlayStations offerings more consistent in terms of historic cache and making releases hit about 4 times annually or 3 at the least....

When someone puts PS titles right beside Xbox ones, they should immediately recognize the PS ones are superior...

Any type of combination of the following: Square, Capcom / Kadokawa, Square / Capcom, Kadokawa and then maybe add something like CDPR, Remedy or IOI to the mix.


Sony has a lot of work to do on their PR and customer friendliness..... They should have a live showcase or PSX, they should put Shu and other executives front and center as approachable and in touch with the fans and they should review their refund policy.

I think all of these things would be major steps forward for PlayStation.

For all their incompetence they still are hanging around and they might actually not fuck up this time by keeping some of the structure those acquired entities have. MS can't be underestimated and for as bad as Xbox is it still not that far behind PlayStation, the 50m Xbox one number is pretty impressive when you account for how lackluster the product was, same goes for the Series and it's lack of internal games in the first 3 years.

Sony current CEO figured it was a good idea to deepen their relationship with MS as soon as he took over and that wasn't that long ago. Sony needs a CEO that is 100% behind PlayStation just like MS has one that is 100% behind cloud.

Sony besides PlayStation mostly sucks these days or is having success with some really boring non disruptive stuff. That InZone brand is just offensive to PlayStation and so is the way their TV and Anime divisions fail to work close with PlayStation. Xbox coordinates better with Samsung than PlayStation does with other Sony divisions.