For Shigeru Miyamoto : "You need to sell 30 million copies to be considered a big hit"
- Thread starter Evilms
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No, I don't agree. Because it really depends on the genre and title/IP.
Steins;Gate is a really popular anime (made into some games), and just for it sell 500K worldwide, I'm sure the developers are really happy, and it's definitely a "big hit" for the Visual Novel category.
But something like say... The Witcher 4? Yeah, it should at least get close to 15+ million.
Steins;Gate is a really popular anime (made into some games), and just for it sell 500K worldwide, I'm sure the developers are really happy, and it's definitely a "big hit" for the Visual Novel category.
But something like say... The Witcher 4? Yeah, it should at least get close to 15+ million.
with the production values of 90 per cent of nintendo games,even selling 400.000 copies makes them money
It seems like most people here are completely ignoring the fact he said one of these every three to five years.
He didn’t say every game.
30 million is indeed a BIG hit. Not just a regular one.
He didn’t say every game.
30 million is indeed a BIG hit. Not just a regular one.
It's obvious Miyamoto is speaking about Nintendo's situation and he's right within their context.
This part here:
That means 2~ 30M hits within a 6-8 year generation. Switch has 4 of them.
Having evergreen hits like those that keep selling YoY is great for Nintendo's financial situation and allows them the freedom to put money into the many bags they've got as far as franchises and sub-franchises.
Nintendo themselves have a bunch of 15/10/5/Sub-5M series that they've been cultivating for decades.
They obviously don't see those as failures or else they would stop making them.
We can also see this being reflected on the Switch.
There's a bunch of franchises that were dormant for more than a decade but got revived in some way because the install base of the Switch was a chance to see if they could be revived.
The bigger bets and success pays for the smaller bets, it's always been like that.
There's a reason Switch has more variety than pretty much any other Nintendo console and revived things like Endless Ocean in 2024, it's because they can afford to just test the market for a bunch of semi-retired stuff.
Its pretty clear that he's speaking with present tense numbers. When they were operating in the pre-PS2 "growth stage" of console gaming, when the markets was 50 to 75 percent smaller and team sizes were too (or more, if we are going back to NES/SNES era,) then things were measured differently. A million was a hit, 3 million was a big hit. And then before that in the arcade era things were even more different, a thousand was a hit, 2/3 thousand was an all time great.
Now, as to whether he's just talking about what Nintendo's teams should be striving for, or what everyone should be, I don't know. But what I do know is that the amount of games that have reached that level is split fifty/fifty between Nintendo and others, and might well include a whole set of mobile/Asia-centric games that didn't get put on wikipedia.
R*: "You need to sell at least 200m for it to be consider a big hit"
Dude clearly chose 30m because it makes Nintendo look good for having a few of those types of games while most other publishers don't.
How are Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate, Hogwarts, God of War, etc, not big hits?
Dude clearly chose 30m because it makes Nintendo look good for having a few of those types of games while most other publishers don't.
How are Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate, Hogwarts, God of War, etc, not big hits?
Miyamoto is low key petty as fuck. I remember Ratchet and Clank beating him to the chase with spherical worlds, after which he pretended not to know of the franchise. "Is that a PC game?" He asked (which I do appreciate because lmao even Nintendo hates PC).
Anyway each title in the PS2 series stomped on most Nintendo franchises/titles at the time on GameCube i.e. Sony's 1st party was stronger than Nintendo's, and that was with Sony's lower-tier franchises.
Ratchet and Clank
Ratchet and Clank is a series of third-person shooters from Insomniac and Sony. It was originally released on the PS2 in 2002 and has been a regular series for Sony platforms. The series has sold over 40 million as of 2022. All of the data comes from the Insomniac data breach
List of best-selling GameCube video games - Wikipedia
Hogwarts sold 24 million in under a year, its definitely getting to 30. Elden Ring probably will too, especially if it gets a deluxe or GotY version or something similar to push it over the line. God of War doesn't make the cut at 25 million, too bad, should have sold more. And then BG3 is currently way back at 15 million, less than a bunch of stuff. Maybe it long-tails and gets there but I doubt it, a big darling even among "normal people" but thats the thing, games of the type he is talking about are a rarity, why are you expecting two or three of them to have come out in the same year? Because that year already has Hogwarts and also Monopoly Go (which doesn't seem to have paid download numbers available but did make well over a billion dollars in revenue.)
Yeah both Hogwarts and ER are locked in for 30M. That's what discounts are for.
Hogwarts Legacy is a standard open world game, those generally have long legs at low prices because its basically mindless comfort food gaming.
As for Elden Ring, the game lowest discount so far has been 40% off, there's clearly lot of sales legs to go through.
BG3 is an interesting case because it is around 15M~ and we're approaching the 1 year mark.
So it's selling quite a significant amount of copies below those two juggernauts even though it's a historical success as a CRPG. The X factor for this game is the mod support they're working on that is suppose to come out for the next big patch.
Depending on how the implementation, this is the type of stuff that can help with legs, especially for a RPG that is PC centric.
The mod tools for bg3 won't be nearly as good as the creation engine. I don't even think it will have a map editor. Also the mod tools are suppose to be worst then divinity sin 2, their previous game...
That would be unfortunate. Probably more of a 25M ceiling then.
Lots of it will depend on the availability of the console at launch.
I am sure Nintendo is going to do all in their power to avoid the launch supply shortages they had back in 2017 but TBD if they can truly manage that.
Still a lot of unknowns since the console/price and software lineup hasn't even been revealed yet.
Same.
Its either gonna be a really hard generation for them.
Or if they have some great specs, that can play current gen games on portable, then they might stride away with there current momentum and be super successful
they will no doubt be successful. but to replicate and exceed switch hardware and software sales will be HARD. Specs won't be a deciding factor imo, and I honestly don't matter for 90% of gamers tbh. It has to have an "it" factor to push another 150 million. that's achieved by great marketing and execution on software.