Hypothetical discussion should Microsoft acquisition of Activision fail

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Shmunter

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Looking for a mature discussion on Microsofts strategy should Activision sale fall through. Didn't want to clutter other threads with off topic. Would rather not see one sentence answers - "IT WANT FAIL BRUH"

What would Microsoft do with the budget for the ActBliz acquisition -

  • Attempt to buy another publisher EA, Ubisoft?
  • Buy small studios showing future potential similar to the Sony model?
  • Invest in building grass roots studios or Expanding current ones to build new projects?
  • Anything else?
 
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arvfab

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I see the possibilities for this to happen very low, but in case it fails, I think the consequences would be major.

I think any big publishers buyouts would be off the table from any console manufacturer. Which would mean that struggling publishers would either close the doors, or be bought by platform independent entities (e.g. Tencent).

Microsoft could still invest heavily in Actiblizzard + other companies without buying them (see Sony investing in shares of other companies), which, IMHO, would have been the smartest decision from the beginning.
 
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Heisenberg007

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Looking for a mature discussion on Microsofts strategy should Activision sale fall through. Didn't want to clutter other threads with off topic. Would rather not see one sentence answers - "IT WANT FAIL BRUH"

What would Microsoft do with the budget for the ActBliz acquisition -

  • Attempt to buy another publisher EA, Ubisoft?
  • Buy small studios showing future potential similar to the Sony model?
  • Invest in building grass roots studios or Expanding current ones to build new projects?
  • Anything else?
I think they will be more hesistant making big publisher purchases as that acquisition might run into similar problems as well. Remember they may be penalized $3 billion if the acquisition fails.

- They will try to buy smaller studios that aren't necessarily publishers: Asobo, Avalanche, IOI, etc.
- Expand their internal teams

Basically, what Sony does now.
 
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Shmunter

Shmunter

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I think they will be more hesistant making big publisher purchases as that acquisition might run into similar problems as well. Remember they may be penalized $3 billion if the acquisition fails.

- They will try to buy smaller studios that aren't necessarily publishers: Asobo, Avalanche, IOI, etc.
- Expand their internal teams

Basically, what Sony does now.

I agree, buying talented studios is the smart option. No government interference, no ip ring fencing, more games created.
 

Yobo

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They will delay and delay and hope for Government changes with lower oversight, particularly if its the FTC
 

Heisenberg007

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MS history of buying out competition and lowballing who remains is enough for me to say it needs to fail. The ONLY reason for this purchase is to take games off other platforms.
Exactly. It's not like acquiring Bethesda (or, now, Activision) resulted in new games that Xbox gamers wouldn't have got otherwise. It's primarily for leveling the playing field with Sony -- not by producing more games, but reducing the number of games PlayStation has.
 

BigMclargeHuge

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If it doesn't go through or there are issues, I imagine they'll make just enough concessions for it to go through. I don't see them giving up on buying Activision.
 

Yurinka

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Looking for a mature discussion on Microsofts strategy should Activision sale fall through. Didn't want to clutter other threads with off topic. Would rather not see one sentence answers - "IT WANT FAIL BRUH"

What would Microsoft do with the budget for the ActBliz acquisition -

  • Attempt to buy another publisher EA, Ubisoft?
  • Buy small studios showing future potential similar to the Sony model?
  • Invest in building grass roots studios or Expanding current ones to build new projects?
  • Anything else?
I think it won't fail, because doesn't affect the gaming market that much. In fact it helps MS -who is not a market leader in gaming or in any gaming area- to become a better competitor and get closer to the market leaders of gaming or particularly console, mobile, PC, game subs or cloud gaming. If it fails it would be for lying to regulators, in case this is a reason for a regulator to kill an acquisition. If to keep games exclusive is an issue for any acquisition they'll keep them multi (something that benefits MS more than to make them exclusive) and if Xbox fans complain they'll use regulators as excuse.

I think that after ABK they'll try in this order: with Valve, EA, Take 2, Epic and CD Projekt independently if it gets approved or not. I think most of them won't want to sell at least to MS, and probably they already talked with MS and rejected them.

This is what I think they'll do, they'll want to buy big names to secure them GamePass. But once -as in the case of Sony or Nintendo- they have enough 1st party big IPs (before ABK acquisition they needed more, and to get more after acquiring ABK won't hurt) it would be smarter to do like Sony: invest in the talent, not in brand names. IPs or publisher names get outdated and die, the talent instead keeps releasing successful stuff. So should buy support studios, increase the headcount of their existing ones with super talented people and acquire relatively new studios of experienced staff who worked on big hits.

Ubisoft doesn't want to sell and won't sell, and their recent move with Tencent protected the company against a hostile takeover: combining the stocks of the Guillemot brothers, Tencent, the Ubisoft owned stocks, the stocks of banks and hedge funds who are major stakeholders support the Guillemot brothers and the stocks owned by the Ubisoft workers individually should be around 50% or almost. The Guillemot brothers or Ubisoft itself pretty likely will buy back more stocks to ensure they control directly or indirectly over half of the Ubi stocks.
 
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Papacheeks

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MS history of buying out competition and lowballing who remains is enough for me to say it needs to fail. The ONLY reason for this purchase is to take games off other platforms.

Thats not the longterm goal though. It never was, Microsoft's goal is to fund services/Subscription models that align with rest of Enterprise. In doing this it expands cloud infrastructure, and they are doing this to combat google and mainly Amazon AWS. Which has a larger foot print than Azure.

They want to be the main leader in cloud anything. And using gamers to do it, so spending 70 Billion to make you're subscription/cloud model for gamers look amazing throughout the world through GIANT brands like COD.

The issue is honestly Phil made a deal with the devil and no one has any clue what this leads to in terms of long term effects on the industry. Go look at how healthy the entertainment industry was mid 2000's. People were buying dvd's/Bluray's, renting, going to theaters for multiple viewings.
Now hardly any movies are being seen outside of big blockbusters, and even those are being selected by the audience in which one they think is worth their time.

The issue regardless of what @David Jaffe thinks is the landscape will forever be changed and not for the better in long term. Right now yes, smaller developers and smaller games may get made because there are more options now to get you're game into someones hands. But thats in a still buying/purchasing world.
What happens when that becomes less because gamepass, Uplay+, EAPLAY, even PS PREMIUM have like 100+ million subs scribers? What does the landscape look like?

Well take a look at whats happening in film right now with hardly anything indie or unique interesting being greenlit thats not a action/horror/superhero/war film.
The days of going to big comedy movie like American pie, or a weird small sci-fi film like Looper are long gone. No one wants to fund those because there is no second market to re-coup money if box office falls flat.

Subscribers are leaving in the millions, WB is trying to figure out what to do with their movies/streaming services. Netflix has ups and downs and cant turn a profit because they spend so much money on content, and a lot of it doesnt drive the sub numbers they need. Like Gray Man film.
The film industry is literally closing theaters, Regal just filed for Bankruptcy.
And now we have consolidation going on. The thing keeping film in tact is outside of Disney buying Fox, we still have universal, paramount, WB, Magnet ect.

Soon if Microsoft sets a precedent, then you will see 2k, EA all get bought, and then to me the industry is fucked.
Nothing but F2P, subscriptions, and hit or miss Single player games that will probably get less and less as time goes on.
Microsoft wants to be #1 in cloud/server infrastructure/sub services for enterprise. ANd they will ruin the gaming sphere to do it.

I totally understand right now, its a awesome time to be a gamer. Cheap entry to games, through gamepass and the idea of not having to buy cod for $70 every year similar to madden is a sweet deal.

But the longterm effects in having that will cause a ripple effect. If CMA is looking at this deal, then they also need to look at Licenses because the Monopoly that has been going on with NFL, NBA and up until recent Fifa has made it a very non-compete area.
 
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peter42O

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Personally, I don't see the ABK acquisition failing whatsoever. I believe that it will go through without any concessions unless they're cloud/mobile related.

But if this were to happen, then they could go after another AAA publisher which I believe that they will do regardless and my guess is EA who has been looking to sell out so if they're still available by late 2024/early 2025, I can easily see Microsoft acquiring them with or without ABK.

They will also probably acquire a few more development studios to help fill voids in genres that they have. They will also continue to expand their already owned internal studios including Bethesda which they're already currently doing.
 

Dabaus

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-Xbox ambassadors and fanboys will say outrageous and violent things.
-Big name studio leads and devs will start to leave studios, more than they have already
-Rumors will appear that microsoft feels like the xbox division isnt carrying its weight
-Phil Spencer retires
-In a few years articles come up about how microsoft wants to be a third party publsiher

I really dont know, everyone was so sure the deal would go through because muh third place narrative but when you have the Microsft company president bold face lying on cnbc, i dont see how regulators can allow that to stand. If it goes through it will be because of heavy concessions, probably to the point where you wonder why the made the deal to begin with.
 

Bernd Lauert

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We've countless examples of now-dead IPs and studios just because the talent left: BioWare, Blizzard, Bethesda, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Rare, etc.
Ricky Gervais Lol GIF


Imagine thinking CoD, AC, Blizzard and Bethesda are dead. Rare also makes more money than ever in its history. What an utterly hilarious take, thanks for the laugh.
 
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ethomaz

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No.

That should be a disaster to Activision.
See what happened with Musk bullshiting about buy Twitter.

The deal needs to happen... it will be worst for the industry if it doesn't pass because Activision will probably die.
 
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Shmunter

Shmunter

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No.

That should be a disaster to Activision.
See what happened with Musk bullshiting about buy Twitter.

The deal needs to happen... it will be worst for the industry if it doesn't pass because Activision will probably die.
Where is this Activision will die coming from?
 
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ethomaz

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Where is this Activision will die coming from?
That is what I think? I listed even an example of similar case where Twitter is now is in a really bad situation.
Elon Musk basically damaged Twitter and left it way worst than what it was before the fake deal.

Can you imagine Activision receiving the blow if MS deal don't go thought? If not die they will be in a very poor situation financially.
 
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