Cyberpunk which tanked, was panned and removed from stores because it was so good?
If not for CDPR being forced to fix the game, it would have been the next Anthem. How well did Anthem or the latest Battlefield flops sell on launch day?
COD, once a juggernaut, had to go F2P because it was losing money.
Diablo 3 sold gangbusters. Diablo 4 was a flop.
Many such cases.
RDR2 sold really well. I remember all of the normies at work talking about it non-stop. Then a week later, silence. Never played again because it was boring.
GTA6 can be polished, it can do everything right, but if people lose interest in it, then it will be a flop. I doubt R* are focused on day 1 sales, rather than legs of the game. All indications from R* point to them not caring about single player at all.
GTA 5 launched in 2013.
The casuals ran the industry back then, but they don't today.