It's January 1, 2028. Predict the State of the Gaming Industry.

[Heisenberg007]

Happy New Year Welcome to 2028!

What do you think the gaming industry landscape looks like now? What are Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo doing? Are there any new entrants? Which studios and publishers have been acquired? How is VR gaming doing?

Make your predictions. Here are mine:

• Sony's PS VR 2 has become a moderate success (didn't become as mainstream as some imagined, but it wasn't a failure either). Many non-VR AAA games were easily ported to VR 2 (ala Resident Evil Village), which now offers a huge competitive advantage to Sony and PS5 users.
• Sony has acquired two of the following four companies: SquareEnix, Capcom, CDPR, and FromSoftware.
• > 75% of PlayStation's live service games have flopped (e.g., Firewalk's and London Studio's), but the other 25% have become massive hits (e.g., TLOU Online, Horizon Online).
• In a surprising move, Nintendo is warming up to PC releases, and either has released or announced one of their core franchises to release on PC.
• Sony has slowed down their PC releases for single-player games but has fully embraced PC for multiplayer releases, which makes for more than 50% of their portfolio now.
• Microsoft has announced a lower-tier ad-supported Gamepass plan that costs $5 - $7, does not include any third-party game, and brings first-party releases after a few months of launch, very much in line with this rumor. This plan has been or is set to release on PlayStation and Nintendo, ala EA Play.
• Microsoft has become or is on the road to becoming more of a third-party publisher than a platform holder. Gamepass and xCloud have opened that possibility for them.
• There has been one new entrant in the gaming industry, albeit at a much lower scale. That competitor is either Apple or Netflix. Their target audience is arcadey, casual gaming fans. They didn't announce any console and are instead delivering content via streaming and/or other platforms.
• There are strong rumors that Tencent is bringing its own handheld gaming console to the market.

It may be fun to look back to this thread after 5 years and see how everyone's predictions panned out.

 

[arvfab]

PlayStation just successfully released the PS6, with a wireless PSVR successor following shortly after. People keep crying about cross-gen games, while released first party titles blow everybody's mind. The next Bungie IP is a huge success on all platforms, but is also one of the very few Sony GaaS games to do so.

The Switch Next is a few years old, rumors keep insisting about an imminent Pro version announcement, as the first 3rd party "next-gen" games are announced to skip the console. As always, first party games are a joy to play and sell like hot cakes. Instead of PC, Nintendo embraced mobile, with multiple IPs having freemium AND premium entries.

Xbox is now subscription only, their hardware is just a streaming box. A few of their studios had to be shut down: Obsidian and Double Fine. Majority of Starfield bugs are finally fixed by the community. Fable has a summer release date, The Elder Scroll 6 is announced (CGI teaser), together with a Skyrim re-release. Xbox-only fans continue blaming Sony for Phil keeping breaking his promises, but are glad that their 30 bucks/month GP subscription is still a thing. The price increase is the only way Xbox is able to get some of the 35B they spent to separate King from AB, after the deal to buy them failed.

 

[Sircaw]

Majority of Starfield bugs are finally fixed by the community.

This should be put into law its so god damn true lol.

 

[Heisenberg007]

PlayStation just successfully released the PS6, with a wireless PSVR successor following shortly after. People keep crying about cross-gen games, while released first party titles blow everybody's mind. The next Bungie IP is a huge success on all platforms, but is also one of the very few Sony GaaS games to do so.

The Switch Next is a few years old, rumors keep insisting about an imminent Pro version announcement, as the first 3rd party "next-gen" games are announced to skip the console. As always, first party games are a joy to play and sell like hot cakes. Instead of PC, Nintendo embraced mobile, with multiple IPs having freemium AND premium entries.

Xbox is now subscription only, their hardware is just a streaming box. A few of their studios had to be shut down: Obsidian and Double Fine. Majority of Starfield bugs are finally fixed by the community. Fable has a summer release date, The Elder Scroll 6 is announced (CGI teaser), together with a Skyrim re-release. Xbox-only fans continue blaming Sony for Phil keeping breaking his promises, but are glad that their 30 bucks/month GP subscription is still a thing. The price increase is the only way Xbox is able to get some of the 35B they spent to separate King from AB, after the deal to buy them failed.

So you're predicting a Fall 2027 release for PS6 then? Interesting. My prediction is Fall 2028 for the new consoles launch.

 

[arvfab]

So you're predicting a Fall 2027 release for PS6 then? Interesting. My prediction is Fall 2028 for the new consoles launch.

Yes. I have a feeling, Nintendo and Sony might get into a console launch rhythm, where one launches at around halfway though the "gen" of the other.

 

[Old Gamer]

It will be shit, unless it's rescued from the filthy claws of the big tech monopoly.

 

[Yurinka]

• At the end of 2028 PS6 shows a first year sales of 23M units, new fastest selling console record launch aligned at that point. With big improvements on RT, SSD speed, AI upscaling reconstruction it highly improved real time global illumination, shadowing and reflections over PS5. 4K HDR 120fps is a standard but many players still play at 60fps and a few start to play them at 8K on expensive tvs that a tiny minority of players have.
• At its 8th launch yearPS5 is launch aligned the fastest selling home console ever at that point of its lifetime. PS+ has over 100M subs and its cloud gaming is available on mobile, tablets, tvs and cars.
• Thanks to having more adaptation of many AAA IPs, a majority of them from Sony making these games playable in both tvs or VR, PSVR2 sold around a dozen million copies at that point, more than doubling PSVR1 sales.
• With different levels of success that vary from moderate success to huge hit, GT7, MLB, TLOU Online, Helldivers II, Horizon Online, next Wipeout, GoT Online, new IPs from London and Bend, next Motorstorm and Uncharted Online become the most successful games of their IPs and studios thanks to their quality and succesful GaaS approach that mixes traditional single player campaigns with multiplayer stuff and meaty post launch updates. New IPs from Bungie, Firewalk, Deviation, Haven become very successful GaaS hits too. The least successful ones are the London Studio game, and Twisted Metal (which flops hard) followed by Motorstorm and Wipeout, who despite not being huge hits in PS5 and PC became some of the main PSVR2 sellers.
• One of the new IPs from Bungie result on the next Fortnite/GTA Online, a new IP from Deviation or Firewalk results on the next CoD, Destiny continues outselling Halo and Helldivers 2 becomes the next Gears. Sony is the new king of FPS, selling more than the equivalent MS series (if CoD moved to console exclusive).
• After acquiring EA and finally starting to have at least a big AAA per quarter regularly, MS managed to increase the GP userbase until 50M, under half of the subs that Sony has.
• Xbox Series gets discontinued with final sales between XBO and 360. They do a Sega and quit being a console maker and move instead to full multiplatform 3rd party publisher including games like Halo or Gears.
• MS stake holders decided to stop losing dozens of billions to gaming hardware and big gaming company acquisitions, investments that they don't recoup specially seeing GP growth stagnant and most big gaming companies already consolidated on a few blocks.
• Instead of making their own harware, MS instead makes a Steam Machines-like Xbox label for Windows compatible 3rd party consoles/portables/hybrids that feature their store (plus other ones like Steam, PSN, Luna and a Tencent one).
• Steamdeck 2, Apple, Samsung and Huawei are the most successful handheld PCs, but others like Alienware also make their own hybrid. Apple starts having only their own store but Apple and Google get forced to allow 3rd party stores on their ecosystems so all these PC hybrid consoles end supporting Steam, XBL, PSN and the Tencent one.
• Nintendo 'invented' 4K with the Switch 2 but the catalog of the hybrid PC handhelds (the high end ones with almost high end home console like visuals, the cheapest ones having better pricing than Switch 2 with better specs and catalog) ate a big chunk of their market: Swith 2 will end selling around 80M at the end of its complete lifetime.
• Nintendo continues focusing on their 40 years old IPs, their games continue selling well and continue being profitable but now Sony gets bigger yearly profits and 1st party sales than them.
• In recent years Nintendo acquired a few partners to secure them from being acquired by someone else: Platinum, Mercury Steam, DeNa or Good-Feel. In the future, years after 2028, they end acquiring Konami to grow in mobile, to secure more legacy catalog, IPs and more yearly releases. It isn't enough so to recover the relevancy they lost they merge with/get acquired by Disney.
• After seeing others suceeding there for years Nintendo is preparing to release a subscription with hundreds of games from all their generations having all these games also available to purchase on their eShop or to play via download or cloud gaming anywhere. Nintendo is also preparing a VR/AR device, and trophy support for their platform.
• Sony bought a majority of Capcom, ARC System Works, From Software, Annapurna, Devolver, a couple of big Asian mobile/PC F2P companies and the majority of Square-Enix studios (mostly their main FF and DQ related stuff) but these companies remain full multiplatform with some (often timed) console exclusives for Sony only and placing their games regarding subs exclusively on PS+. Sony also acquired Firewalk, Arrowhead, Deviation, Ember Lab for full console exclusive games and are working to acquire BlueTwelve, Ballistic Moon, Sloclap and a majority of (which would remain multiplatform too) Bandai Namco and Sega.
• Embracer Group aquired CD Projekt, later Tencent acquired Embracer Group, plus also a majority of Epic and -once the Guillemot brothers decide to retire- Ubisoft as a golden retirement ticket.
• Gaben retires but keeps having the majority of Valve shares, gives orders of not selling to MS and Tencent. Over years their collaboration with Sony get closer: helping each other with VR, Sony adding their PC store to Steamdeck to help Valve fight Nintendo and Apple portables/hybrids (even if PSN PC store would later end released in all PC handhelds), Sony continuing having their PC games on Steam and Valve their games on PS and PSVR2... after 2030, maybe nearing 2040 Sony ends acquiring Valve.

So you're predicting a Fall 2027 release for PS6 then? Interesting. My prediction is Fall 2028 for the new consoles launch.

Yes. I have a feeling, Nintendo and Sony might get into a console launch rhythm, where one launches at around halfway though the "gen" of the other.

I think Sony will continue releasing their next gen consoles every 7 years, so I bet PS6 will release November 2027. I think Switch 2 will be released in 2024. Not sure if MS will release another console. I mean, making themselves the hardware: I think they may continue but with 3rd party companies manufactured consoles getting a "Xbox" sticker.

 

[Alabtrosmyster]

Phil Spencer will get on a stage and announce xbox games for the next year!

Xbox buys Sega on the first Thursday of the year.

Xbox fans will boast about the incoming games being day-and-date on GP when they ship.

Sony and Nintendo will announce and release games as always.

 

[BigMclargeHuge]

2028 will finally be xbox's year.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

SONY:

[PS5]​

​

-PS5 reaches 125 million units sold globally by early 2028​

-PS5 Slim will have been available since Late 2023, a wireless module option for PSVR2 since Late 2024/Early 2025​

-PS Storefront/Launcher for PC available since 2026 (having both ad-based and subscription-based models, acts​

as a "virtualized" PlayStation console in a sense)​

-With advent of PS Storefront/Launcher on PC, some Day 1 non live-service/GaaS games start to launch between​

PS5 and PC via the PS Storefront exclusively​

-Studio acquisitions/strategic partnerships/investments during PS5 gen likely involve Ember Lab, Shift Up, Pearl Abyss, Sloclap,​

Arc System Works, Deviation Games, Asobo, Striking Distance Studios, Square-Enix Creative Business Unit 3, From Software,​

DICE, etc.​

-Publisher acquisitions/strategic partnerships/investments during PS5 gen likely involve Capcom, Kadokawa, Square-Enix (​

Capcom & Square-Enix more likely, Kadokawa less likely in terms of actual acquisitions), Koei-Tecmo, Konami, Cygames,​

Tencent, Ubisoft etc.​

-Some type of new PlayStation portable initiative is launched in 2024/2025 providing at least PS4-level performance in​

a portable unit to entice more Japanese dev support and restore more brand presence in Japan & other markets that​

might favor portable & mobile options. Two SKUs: "traditional" model with just the needed processing & features​

for gaming, and a "smartphone" model with hardware needed for a high-performance smartphone that can dual-boot​

into PS OS and Android​

-New per-game subscription model introduced maybe around 2025/2026. Annual contracts ranging from $3/MO to $8/MO​

depending on game & package perks, allowing people to play new games Day 1 with only a small monthly payment.​

-No PS5 Pro this generation​

​

[PS6]​

​

-PS6 launched Fall 2028​

-PS6 introduces 3 tiers of VR/AR headsets. An Entry model (bundled with every PS6) as the cheapest option (~ $130 - $150​

MSRP standalone), an Enhanced model for more performant VR/AR (~ $400), and an Enthusiast model offering the most​

feature-rich VR/AR PS6 experience (~ $600 - $700). Enhanced & Enthusiast models not needed, but are good options.​

-Will support multiple (upwards 4) VR/AR users locally in shared gaming experiences, but per-headset bandwidth is more limited​

as a tradeoff​

-Can support a mix of wired & wireless VR/AR headset users to one system​

-New PSVR3 headsets cross-compatible on PS6 & PC via the PS Storefront/Launcher​

-PSVR3 may or may not be usable on PS5, but should be BC with PSVR2 software & peripherals​

-PSVR3 natively supports either wired or wireless options (optional wireless module required if wanting wireless VR/AR and​

wifi internet simultaneously)​

-Single SKU, $599 MSRP (for PS6 & PSVR3 Entry headset)​

-No native disc drive; PS6 will be a digital console but provide disc support through optional fit-to-form disc drive. Will​

also be BC with PS5's modular/detachable disc drive​

-Will support microSD with secure load of game file transfer, expediated through interfacing with system's decompression I/O​

-OS enhanced with many new features & QOL that can seamlessly transition & adapt between traditional & VR/AR space,​

even provide a mix of both (i.e a user with the headset can see some options enhanced/private while a person viewing on​

the TV can see other options of the same content; or shifting content from TV to VR/AR space seamlessly)​

-To have an option against Nintendo (MOTL), will launch a new PS portable model with PS5-level performance to replace​

the older model at the high end, and simultaneously launch a new SKU for the older PS portable with PSVR3 Entry VR/AR​

headset bundled​

-Will probably have a new Astrobot game to showcase features & benefits of VR/AR integration into OS and system​

experience for gaming capabilities​

-PS6 specs will include use of HBM3-PIM (Processing In Memory) with distributed customized CPU core logic alongside​

scalable GPU logic, coupled with a base block with more traditional CPU cores, full integrated Northbridge/Southbridge​

I/O subsystems (with PNM (Processing Near Memory) logic & buffers), and GPU frontend logic. GPU frontend, shader,​

& backend logic can have separate clocks for best balance. Based off potential future AMD GPU architecture targeting​

fully embedded platforms, with co-development from Sony and Microsoft.​

-Think of this hardware setup as a full realization of what Cell aimed for back in 2006, only better fleshed out,​

better scalability, easier dev use (compatibility with all the popular APIs and frameworks) and wider market support.​

-Regardless, Sony will have some customizations to their implementation for PlayStation 6.​

​

MICROSOFT:

[SERIES S/X/etc]​

​

-Series cloud streaming console not dead; launches either Late 2023 or Mid 2024 for $130 - $150 in two SKUs: one with​

a remote that can be used as a gamepad ($130 SKU option) ala Wiimote (but with Xbox-style buttons and thumbpads​

to replicate thumbsticks), and one with the remote & a regular Xbox Series controller ($150 SKU)​

-Most GamePass loopholes have been closed by 2025, or things like MS Rewards points have their redeem values heavily​

reduced. All to encourage higher ARPU from the service​

-Studio acquisitions/strategic partnerships/investments during S/X gen likely involve Certain Affinity, Avalanche, Platinum Games,​

Asobo, Game Science etc.​

-Publisher acquisitions/strategic partnerships/investments during S/X gen likely involve Ubisoft and Sega​

-Series S & X "upgrades" release in 2023/2024. For Series S, a new model with increased internal storage to 1 TB and​

a slight GPU clock increase to 1.7 GHz and GDDR6 chip speed increase to 16 Gbps (system bandwidth increase to 320 GB/s).​

For Series X, same 1 TB storage kept but now added support for standard internal m.2 SSDs (CF Express slot potentially​

removed for cost reasons), GPU clock increase to 2 GHz (128 Gpixels/sec, 416 Gtexels/sec, 13.56 TF). New Series S​

model phases out previous model, same with new Series X model​

-New Series S MSRP $349, New Series X MSRP $549​

-MS will whitelist Series S/X compatibility with a 3P VR headset (possibly provide HTC Reverb & Vive VR headset support to consoles)​

either late 2023 or sometime in 2024 to have some kind of VR answer on Xbox​

-Certain Xbox-exclusive games like Grounded, Pentiment, RedFall, Starfield etc. will get Nintendo Switch 2 & PS5 ports by or starting​

in 2025​

-Microsoft introduces a limited form of Windows upgrade license to Xbox owners in 2025. Offers access to all usual non-gaming​

Windows productivity software, files and peripherals one can have on a Windows PC by installing a dual-boot feature and booting​

Xbox Series S or X into Windows mode. Game software storefront access still limited to Xbox storefront, Windows Store & Game Pass.​

However some early efforts of licensing partnerships with Valve & GOG may start forming around this time. Upgrade license cost​

is $99​

-First efforts of some standardized curated GamePass app for iOS & Android devices (accessed natively instead of through a web page)​

emerge starting around 2025. Some progress made with Nintendo & Sony for possible future curated GamePass on their consoles​

may start around this time as well.​

-Between 2025 and 2028, MS's 3P support of Day 1 releases on Sony & Nintendo platforms increases gradually and noticeably. Alongside​

that, Day 1 1P releases in GamePass for Xbox & PC platforms becomes more staggered between tiers, with lower tiers not getting the​

games until 6-12 months later (or longer in very specific cases), to help incentivize more direct game sales among Xbox, PC, Nintendo​

& Sony platforms​

-Also between 2025 and 2028, specific Xbox 1P games start getting native ports to iOS and Android devices. Mainly lower technical scale​

games like Pentiment, Grounded etc. and more of these become Day 1 native releases on iOS & Android devices as well​

-Xbox storefront ported to PC with integration into Windows store, to basically relaunch that service, sometime between 2025​

and 2028​

​

[NEXT XBOX]​

​

-Launches in Fall 2028​

-Two models: one as a SFF mini-tower style system, the other as a (very) slim profile slate that can be modularly configured into a Surface-style laptop​

-SFF mini-tower style system is the more powerful one, performance roughly equivalent to a PS6. Allows for 3P AMD/Nvidia GPU upgrade​

expansion via a fit-to-form eGPU expansion module (3P eGPU modules can also be used via Thunderbolt 5/6). Uses socketed, upgradable CPU.​

"iGPU" via some custom mini-GPU card (think something like Series X's I/O card) with high-bandwidth interconnect forcing cache coherency through​

SAM/BAR or something like that. Upgradable CPU DDR6 RAM (up to 64 GB); internal GPU uses either GDDR8 or some form of HBM.​

-Upgradable CPU has to be supported by the OS and motherboard, as well as the BIOS. Upgradable GPU support will be determined by the​

limitations of installed CPU. System has a "dummy-proof" secure boot system that ensures any upgraded part which could cause system performance​

problems (drawing too much power beyond PSU limits for example) locks the full system from booting, providing use message (some microcontroller​

with Flash ROM or something would have to initialize/check state of system at boot and access video display to provide message from Flash ROM if​

an issue with installed parts is detected)​

-Slim profile model has performance profile of at least Series X, possibly more. CAMM-style DRAM module for CPU, non-upgradable iGPU with dedicated​

HBM memory. Very rectangular in surface area, very thin in Z-depth height. Optional fit-to-form screen (touch-enabled, at least 120 Hz refresh, screen​

haptics etc.) and keyboard covers can be purchased and added to make it like a laptop​

-Support for 3P eGPUs​

-Both new Next Xbox systems default to including Windows out of the box, instead of as a purchasable license. As well, both allow for access to​

3P storefronts (Steam, GOG, EGS etc.)​

-Xbox OS still supported for BC purposes; however priority of 1P development will shift to Windows platforms now​

-Outside of timed PC exclusives (like Flight Sim etc. which incidentally would be playable on Next Xbox since it runs Windows), 1P content will be​

multiplat with native builds for PC/Next Xbox, PS5/PS6, Switch 2, and iOS/Android devices, with select games depending on scope (i.e Pentiment 2 a Day 1 on all platforms mentioned, but a Forza Motorsport 10 Day 1 on PC/Next Xbox & PS6 only, etc.)​

-Next Xbox SFF system MSRP $999. Next Xbox Slim System: $499 (base), $99 (Xbox Keyboard cover), $199 (Xbox Display Panel) ($799 total)​

​

NINTENDO:

[SWITCH/SWITCH 2]​

​

-Switch 2 releasing Late 2023, maybe Early 2024 for remaining global markets. Fully BC with Switch 1 games, user accounts, etc.​

-Switch 2 will probably aim for somewhere between an Xbox One and Steam Deck in terms of spec performance, will not use CAMM-style​

memory (unless Dell & Nvidia work something out), will go with LPDDR5 at a sufficient clock​

-Studio partnerships/investment will likely include Platinum Games (for Bayonetta, and possibly W101/Pikmin), Atlus (SMT, possibly some smaller games, or getting Persona/SMT characters in Smash Bros.), Sonic Team, and M2 (emulator stuff, maybe some smaller new indies with Nintendo IP), Teams Bravely, Asano & Acquire​

-No publisher acquisitions, but can see big investments into both Sega and Capcom, Square-Enix and Ubisoft​

-No real big gimmick for Switch 2, but they may bring Amiibos back in a big way alongside it​

-More iOS/Android specific games based on existing Nintendo IP (including possibly Mario Party & Animal Crossing)​

​

[SWITCH 3]​

​

-Probably won't release until post-2028 honestly​

-If so, will have to contend with Sony's portable systems (the "console"-oriented older system released years prior, the higher-end (PS5-level spec) one​

releasing 2028), including the new SKU for the older model packing PSVR 3 Entry headset in it for a reasonable bundle price ($299 - $349 MSRP)​

-Switch 3 (or whatever it's called by then) will probably be an integrated VR/AR headset with localized processing built into it, similar to the Meta​

Quest line of devices.​

-Spec-wise Switch 3 probably comes more along Series S & PS4 Pro level of performance, with modern features support​

-Switch 3 MSRP of $399, probably includes a pre-installed 1P game to show off system features​

-Amiibos (or equivalent items) will offer expanded VR/AR functions for Switch 3​

-Possible Switch 3 release date of 2030​

 

[Deleted member 417]

Nintendo release an unsuccessful switch 2 on the back of a highly successful switch, then release a new console (probably vr) which is going to be as successful as the switch and wii. Basically, Nintendo going to Nintendo.

Microsoft will become a digital storefront and/or sell/merge xbox gamepass with Disney+, offering games, TV and films under one roof

Sony releases ps6 with psvr3 support in the pipelines. Powerful cutting edge console with games aimed at the traditional market.

 

[arvfab]

Fable has a summer release date

Oh boy if that Fable rumor turns out to be true, I hope for my tag to be changed to Nostradamus.

 

[Deleted member 417]

Oh boy if that Fable rumor turns out to be true, I hope for my tag to be changed to Nostradamus.

When has a rumour about a delay to a Microsoft game not been true?