Matt Piscatella: Sub. growth has flattened & sub services account for only 10% video game spending in the US. |UP| Still stagnant & stalled.

[Nhomnhom]

2 months ago nobody was saying the market was dying. Mat was always very optimistic and he had the stats to prove the market was very healthy...basically every month it was good news besides subscriptions.

Going back to Activision, we were told relentlessly that it was good for the industry and for competition. Sony didn't have to worry at all about losing all the publishers because the market was SO HEALTHY Sony would come out stronger. There was enough space for everybody and competition is good for customers.

Xbox collapsed and Phil started making interviews blaming the whole market and Gen Z. Overnight, all the "analysts" changed their tune and consoles are dying and Sony Too.

It makes no sense. This is Game Pass astroturfing all over again.

It's like MS tried and failed to crash the market with Gamepass, Series S and consolidation and now that they failed they want to gaslight people into thinking consoles don't have a future. Meanwhile well made console games are selling better than ever, Nintendo has their best selling console ever on the market and the PS5 is only tracking behind PS4 because Sony has been focused on trying to increase profits and expand to other markets for short term profit instead of being aggressive pushing console sales for long term health.

MS under Phil Spencer read the market completely wrong every single time, so if they are saying the console market is dead, the opposite is likely to happen.

 

[Cool hand luke]

So you say that these market analysis firms, the big publishers and platform holders and publisher national associations who use and share their graphs (plus provide them the data to make such graphs), plus websites like Bloomberg or gamedeveloper.com are lying or wrong and that you are right without having a single decent receipt to back such claim?

Sure, Jan.

Everyone that is using the visual capitalist chart created by Pelham Smithers is indeed wrong.

 

[Yurinka]

Everyone that is using the visual capitalist chart created by Pelham Smithers is indeed wrong.

How about the rest of the sources I provided like IDG and Newzoo, who also show that PC didn't "shrunk heavily", that PC isn't "a dying afterthought" as you say? Are they wrong too?

What source do yo have to make such claims?

 

[Cool hand luke]

From 2017-2023, the console games market has grown +59%. PC only +37%; has shrunk since 2022

Source: Newzoo One platform is on the decline from its high (PC) while the other has consistently grown (consoles) Nice counter to both Spencer FUD and PC Masterbaiter spam.

icon-era.com

End of discussion.

 

[anonpuffs]

It's like MS tried and failed to crash the market with Gamepass, Series S and consolidation and now that they failed they want to gaslight people into thinking consoles don't have a future. Meanwhile well made console games are selling better than ever, Nintendo has their best selling console ever on the market and the PS5 is only tracking behind PS4 because Sony has been focused on trying to increase profits and expand to other markets for short term profit instead of being aggressive pushing console sales for long term health.

MS under Phil Spencer read the market completely wrong every single time, so if they are saying the console market is dead, the opposite is likely to happen.

Well they did succeed in crashing the market, but only for them.

 

[Yurinka]

From 2017-2023, the console games market has grown +59%. PC only +37%; has shrunk since 2022

Source: Newzoo One platform is on the decline from its high (PC) while the other has consistently grown (consoles) Nice counter to both Spencer FUD and PC Masterbaiter spam.

icon-era.com

End of discussion.

The graph supposedly showing PC "shrunk heavily" and being a "dying afterthought" says instead that PC grew a 37% from 2017 to 2023.

Growing all years with the exception of the covid lockdowns ones (causing many games to get delayed) and the one coming back to normality after the covid bump, where remained basically flat acording to the graph.

(btw, it's a fan made graph with numbers that don't match the ones provided by the supposed source)

Absolutely nothing in this graph says or proves that PC "shrunk heavily" or is a "dying afterthought".

 

[Cool hand luke]

The graph supposedly showing PC "shrunk heavily" and being a "dying afterthought" says instead that PC grew a 37% from 2017 to 2023.

Growing all years with the exception of the covid lockdowns ones (causing many games to get delayed) and the one coming back to normality after the covid bump -where remained basically flat acording to the graph.

(btw, a fan made graph with numbers that don't match the ones provided by the supposed source)

Absolutely nothing in this graph says or proves that PC "shrunk heavily" or is a "dying afterthought".

Inflation adjusted, it shrunk heavily. Probably. See the 2019-2023 numbers. I don't care - the point is PC did not experience miraculous growth.

This "fan made graph" by Tweaktown is more credible than the chalk and crayon chart by the visual capitalist bloggers.

 

[Yurinka]

This "fan made graph" by Tweaktown is more credible than the chalk and crayon chart by the visual capitalist bloggers.

Tweaktown isn't a source, they aren't professional market analysts who make their own market data research and studies. They only copypaste the data from others they like, even if they know it's wrong.

As an example, made one about console sales that also featured multiple mistakes including ignoring on purpose the 160M PS2 number provided by the CEO in a post that was about it, and instead did put 161M from an estimate.

 

[Yurinka]

Inflation adjusted, it shrunk heavily. Probably

Inflation adjusted (even if we count since January 1 2017 to get more inflation) the $29.4B made in 2017 were $37.14B at the end of 2023, when according to this graph PC posted $40.3B in revenue.

So taking these numbers as legit, inflation adjusted PC obviosly grew less than compared to non-adjusted, but still grew.

For a better comparison between both charts, according to Pelham Smithers table PC did $34B in 2017 and $45B in 2022 (inflation adjusted 2022, rounding to nearest billion). 32.35% growth.

According to the Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") PC did $29.4B in 2017 and $40.5B in 2022. 37.76% growth. Even more than the Pelham Smithers one.

Let's assume the Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") table isn't inflation adjusted. To make the same than Pelham Smithers we also round it to nearest Billion and also inflation adjust it to 2022, from December 2017 to December 2022.

$29B in December 2017 would be $34.91 in December 2022. 20.38% growth.

TLDR:
The PC growth from 2017 to 2022 was according to Pelham Smithers 32.35% and according to Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") 37.76%.

Assuming the Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") one isn't inflation adjusted, if we also round to nearest Billion and make same inflation adjustment than Pelham Smithers then the growth was 20.38%.

So the difference in PC growth between both charts is 5.41% (higher in Tweaktown/""Newzoo"") or 11.97% (higher in Pelham Smithers) depending on if we inflation adjust the Tweaktown one or not.

 

[Cool hand luke]

Inflation adjusted (even if we count since January 1 2017 to get more inflation) the $29.4B made in 2017 were $37.14B at the end of 2023, when according to this graph PC posted $40.3B in revenue.

So taking these numbers as legit, inflation adjusted PC obviosly grew less than compared to non-adjusted, but still grew.

For a better comparison between both charts, according to Pelham Smithers table PC did $34B in 2017 and $45B in 2022 (inflation adjusted 2022, rounding to nearest billion). 32.35% growth.

According to the Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") PC did $29.4B in 2017 and $40.5B in 2022. 37.76% growth. Even more than the Pelham Smithers one.

Let's assume the Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") table isn't inflation adjusted. To make the same than Pelham Smithers we also round it to nearest Billion and also inflation adjust it to 2022, from December 2017 to December 2022.

$29B in December 2017 would be $34.91 in December 2022. 20.38% growth.

TLDR:
The PC growth from 2017 to 2022 was according to Pelham Smithers 32.35% and according to Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") 37.76%.

Assuming the Tweaktown (""Newzoo"") one isn't inflation adjusted, if we also round to nearest Billion and make same inflation adjustment than Pelham Smithers then the growth was 20.38%.

So the difference in PC growth between both charts is 5.41% (higher in Tweaktown/""Newzoo"") or 11.97% (higher in Pelham Smithers) depending on if we inflation adjust the Tweaktown one or not.

Now try from 2019, not 2017, like I said.

 

[Yurinka]

Now try from 2019, not 2017, like I said.

According to the @DeekeTweak form Tweaktown PC did $35.7B in 2019 (inflation adjusted $42.61B) and $40.3B in 2023, a 12.89% growth.

Assuming isn't inflation adjused and we adjust the 2019 number to 2023, a $2.31B/5.42% decrease instead.

If we cover instead the 2019-2022 period to be able to compare it with the Pelham Smithers graph, the 2019 $35.7B number of that graph was $41.23B at the end of 2022 when adjusted. Compared to $40.5B in 2022, a $4.8B/13.45% increase ($0.73B/1.77% decrease if adjusted).

So the Tweaktown graph say that PC had since 2019:

• Until 2023: 12.89% growth (5.42% decrease if inflation adjusted)
• Until 2022: 13.45% growth (1.77% decrease if inflation adjusted)

So according to the @DeekeTweak form Tweaktown graph, in this cherry picked 4-5 year period PC had double digit growth but inflation ate it.

 

[Cool hand luke]

According to the @DeekeTweak form Tweaktown PC did $35.7B in 2019 (inflation adjusted $42.61B) and $40.3B in 2023, a 12.89% growth.

Assuming isn't inflation adjused and we adjust the 2019 number to 2023, a $2.31B/5.42% decrease instead.

If we cover instead the 2019-2022 period to be able to compare it with the Pelham Smithers graph, the 2019 $35.7B number of that graph was $41.23B at the end of 2022 when adjusted. Compared to $40.5B in 2022, a $4.8B/13.45% increase ($0.73B/1.77% decrease if adjusted).

So the Tweaktown graph say that PC had since 2019:

• Until 2023: 12.89% growth (5.42% decrease if inflation adjusted)
• Until 2022: 13.45% growth (1.77% decrease if inflation adjusted)

So according to the @DeekeTweak form Tweaktown graph, in this cherry picked 4-5 year period PC had double digit growth but inflation ate it.

It's definitely not inflation adjusted, hence PC has decreased by 5% and is comfortably below console. Doesn't sound like a market to target for growth to me.

 

[Yurinka]

It's definitely not inflation adjusted, hence PC has decreased by 5% and is comfortably below console. Doesn't sound like a market to target for growth to me.

It would be seriously stupid to analize a market looking only at its inflation adjusted growth during a few cherrypicked years when an ultra rare and unique global pandemic skyrocketed inflation.

Serious business people would instead look at the volume of such potential new market in both revenue, userbase and ROI, its long term growth (both inflatiton adjusted and non-adjusted) pattern, the overlap with their existing business and if it would be a long term investment for the demographics where want to expand.

In this case, SIE saw that China is top grossing gaming market and that India (who just became the most populated and fastest growing country and economy) is one of the fastest growing markets in gaming with LATAM or Middle East plus some other Asian countries. But due to several reasons consoles -particularly expensive high end ones- don't and won't work in many of these countries, where instead they play mostly on PC and mobile.

They saw that both PC and mobile are much bigger markets than PlayStation in revenue, userbase and ROI. And that they have very little overlap with it, plus different habits, selling points, etc. So they are huge markets where they can grow a lot, complementary to what they have, low risk of overlap and with a bit ROI and very low risk compared to making over two dozen games at the same time with over $300M budget most of them and being non-GaaS SP titles for a single console when game revenue is shifting from game sales to addons and user playtime and revenue is focusing on GaaS.

So they hired, acquired and partnered with many GaaS, MP, PC and mobile top experts to expand themselves in all these areas and regions in the long term while at the same time they continue growing in the platfrom and regions they already had.

 

[kirby64]

China/India

Honestly? This really is the biggest reason why PC ports are becoming really common.

The lack of existing console culture already makes for a shaky foundation, but it really doesn't help that in China consoles are kind of just fucked there from the get go due to government restrictions - who the hell wants to buy a Chinese Mainland edition PS5 or Nintendo with like 10 approved games? People can - and do - import through Hong Kong but that's pretty limited at the end of the day. If you want your games to sell in China them either you put them on PC or you're shit out of luck - only Nintendo really maintains any real significant presence there because of their IP (and even then the numbers per capita are dismal because HK imports can only do so much in comparison to units on store shelves)

Like, Granblue Relink's is a recent title that had its bacon saved by China - the game would not even be close to a million without Chinese PC gamers right now.

 

[Yurinka]

Honestly? This really is the biggest reason why PC ports are becoming really common.

The lack of existing console culture already makes for a shaky foundation, but it really doesn't help that in China consoles are kind of just fucked there from the get go due to government restrictions - who the hell wants to buy a Chinese Mainland edition PS5 or Nintendo with like 10 approved games? People can - and do - import through Hong Kong but that's pretty limited at the end of the day. If you want your games to sell in China them either you put them on PC or you're shit out of luck - only Nintendo really maintains any real significant presence there because of their IP (and even then the numbers per capita are dismal because HK imports can only do so much in comparison to units on store shelves)

Like, Granblue Relink's is a recent title that had its bacon saved by China - the game would not even be close to a million without Chinese PC gamers right now.

Yes, they mentioned one of the main reasons of expanding on PC, cinema/tv shows and mobile is to highly expand their gaming userbase and brand popularity, particularly in Asia outside Japan or in Latin America, where due to several reasons (low per capita income, high taxes to foreign electronic devices, popularity of certain genres, simply not having tradition of playing on consoles, specific local regulations for videogames because of previously being ignored by console makers due to previous market volume...) consoles there are way less popular there as gaming devices as in NA, EU or JP.

 

[Vertigo]

Granblue absolutely deservingly outperformed the Persona remake. Def has better longevity too.

 

[kirby64]

Granblue absolutely deservingly outperformed the Persona remake. Def has better longevity too.

Longevity? Probably/Maybe, it really blew up in China, and I would imagine sales would last longer given its multiplayer/action rpg nature. Outperformed? It took a week longer to reach a million, and didn't have the good old gamepass albatross around its neck.

 

[Vertigo]

Longevity? Probably/Maybe, it really blew up in China, and I would imagine sales would last longer given its multiplayer/action rpg nature. Outperformed? It took a week longer to reach a million, and didn't have the good old gamepass albatross around its neck.

Less platforms. Exponentially better player engagement. Lesser known IP. All around win.

also launched in similar release window as persona and yakuza, speaking to strength of the PlayStation consumer also. Very healthy jrpg market.

 

[kirby64]

Less platforms. Exponentially better player engagement. Lesser known IP. All around win.

I would actually dispute the lesser known IP thing in China - its a very popular Gacha, and the IP is just straight up bigger than Persona in Japan and China (mobile is huge everywhere of course, but especially in those places) - and China is quite literally where the absolute majority of the sales seem to be from. Relink survived and thrived thanks to China and PC... which leads basically back to why everybody is porting to PC/Steam in the first place, they want the the gigantic market of people there to actually have the ability to pick up their games.

Still, mostly agree.

 

[Vertigo]

I would actually dispute the lesser known IP thing in China - its a very popular Gacha, and the IP is just straight up bigger than Persona in Japan and China (mobile is huge everywhere of course, but especially in those places) - and China is quite literally where the absolute majority of the sales seem to be from. Relink survived and thrived thanks to China and PC... which leads basically back to why everybody is porting to PC/Steam in the first place, they want the the gigantic market of people there to actually have the ability to pick up their games.

Still, mostly agree.

I want to see gran blue be the big winner out of the three smaller jrpgs that launched. I’m not concerned about what markets they used to pull this off. I agree with the steam demographic for Sony and devs being for international audiences where consoles aren’t dominant. I say similar and a win in China is MASSIVE. Good for them. They earned it. Game is fantastic.