Nintendo FY3/2025 Q1 : Switch - Hardware : 2.1M units (143.42M units LTD) / Software : 30.64M

[Evilms]

Nintendo Switch Hardware & Software :

• Paper Mario The Thousand-Year Door : 1.76M
• Princess Peach Showtime! : 1.30M (+80K)
• Luigi's Mansion 2 HD : 1.19M

Nintendo's forecast remain unchanged for both hardware and software. Still expecting 13.5M consoles to be shipped this fiscal year (+154.82 Million units in cumulative shipment).
As well as 165M games (+1.40 Billion units in cumulative shipment).

IR Information : Sales Data - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units

www.nintendo.co.jp

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240802e.pdf
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240802_2e.pdf
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240802_3e.pdf

 

[Plextorage]

So, PS2 will probably remain as best selling console

 

[Evilms]

Still too early to say.
Personally, I wouldn't be categorical about it. It all depends on how much Switch sales drop this year and next.

We'll wait and see.

 

[Bryank75]

The markets are not impressed

 

[Fenton]

Switch 2 hype news will begin

 

[Kokoloko]

So, PS2 will probably remain as best selling console

Maybe a huge price drop for Switch 1? But that will affect Switch 2 numbers. Nintendo has decisions to make.

Will they stop producing and selling Switch units to sell switch 2 faster?
Or vice versa, keep the Switch 1 selling as a cheaper price while Switch 2 at a higher price?

 

[BillyZ]

Maybe a huge price drop for Switch 1? But that will affect Switch 2 numbers. Nintendo has decisions to make.

Will they stop producing and selling Switch units to sell switch 2 faster?
Or vice versa, keep the Switch 1 selling as a cheaper price while Switch 2 at a higher price?

No price drop, they're gonna stop making them and Switch 2 will cost 400$

 

[Entropi]

The Super Switch should have been released this year.

 

[voke]

If they continue to support the switch it’ll go past 160m. But I can see sales dropping a cliff once their next gen system drops. I’d assume they want to drive adoption as quickly as they can.

 

[Evilms]

The markets are not impressed

FY2024 (last year)

• Q1 : 3.91M
• Q2 : 2.93M
• Q3 : 6.90M
• Q4 : 1.96M

T : 15.70M

FY2025 (actual)

• Q1 : 2.10M
• Q2 : 2.50M ? (1.90M more realistic)
• Q3 : 7.00M ? (6.00M)
• Q4 : 1.90M ? (1.50M)

T : 13.50M ? (11.50M probably)

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

The markets are not impressed

"The markets" are never impressed, so it's not like they matter (IMO).

Since Switch 2 isn't releasing until early 2025 at soonest, I can see a price cut (finally) this Fall and probably some special collector's edition hardware variant (or two). That and the games coming later in the year should help them hit their FY targets.

 

[Evilms]

 

[Bryank75]

"The markets" are never impressed, so it's not like they matter (IMO).

Since Switch 2 isn't releasing until early 2025 at soonest, I can see a price cut (finally) this Fall and probably some special collector's edition hardware variant (or two). That and the games coming later in the year should help them hit their FY targets.

So true and companies should put far less emphasis on investors wants and needs.

Look where it leads companies...to lower quality and release copies of other games etc.

 

[Petekilla]

If they continue to support the switch it’ll go past 160m. But I can see sales dropping a cliff once their next gen system drops. I’d assume they want to drive adoption as quickly as they can.

When has Nintendo ever continued to support a home console after their new one released? You have to go back to the SNES.

 

[Zzero]

When has Nintendo ever continued to support a home console after their new one released? You have to go back to the SNES.

You also have to go back to SNES to find a Nintendo system that was able to sell games late in its life. Nintendo is clearly going to support Switch 1 with games until holiday 2026, at least.

 

[Plextorage]

Still too early to say.
Personally, I wouldn't be categorical about it. It all depends on how much Switch sales drop this year and next.

We'll wait and see.

Actually, if NSW continue to see drops in sales at same pace as last 3 months, it won't surpass PS2. Also, worth noting, software sales are quite lower than expected

 

[Petekilla]

Actually, if NSW continue to see drops in sales at same pace as last 3 months, it won't surpass PS2. Also, worth noting, software sales are quite lower than expected

If Switch doesn’t surpass PS2, nothing will.

 

[Evilnemesis8]

"The markets" are never impressed, so it's not like they matter (IMO).

Since Switch 2 isn't releasing until early 2025 at soonest, I can see a price cut (finally) this Fall and probably some special collector's edition hardware variant (or two). That and the games coming later in the year should help them hit their FY targets.

So true and companies should put far less emphasis on investors wants and needs.

Look where it leads companies...to lower quality and release copies of other games etc.

I think in this case less knowledgeable investors are seeing the big YoY Quarter drop(it was Mario Movie Mania + Zelda doing insane numbers within the quarter. Basically, not something Nintendo should be concerned about in the medium/long term if they feel confident about their Switch 2 launch plans.
This quarter was always going to look back compared to the one last year.

I will echo what people are saying here and on Installbase, the 13.5M forecast in Switch sales seem impossible to reach with what the information we have at the moment. Curious that they're not revising it down in this call.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

So true and companies should put far less emphasis on investors wants and needs.

Look where it leads companies...to lower quality and release copies of other games etc.

Plus apparently Nintendo made more-than-expected profits the previous quarter anyway. They were always going to be down YoY without a TOTK, Zelda OLED or Super Mario Bros. movie driving them.

In spite of that they managed to beat their own net profit projections, which is quite impressive.

@Evilnemesis8 Nintendo are probably planning for a price drop in the Fall around Black Friday time, maybe earlier. They could always also do some type of variant model too (is a LEGO Switch technically feasible?).

 

[quest4441]

Well I contributed another of couple of OLED's to the cause, that brings the no of switches in my home to 6 lol. Nintendo has a great path forward looks like its time to start shorting sony stock after switch 2 launches