Not much I'd add here vs. what you mentioned in the GAF post, outside of, again, I don't see 64 GB of RAM being possible, or maybe even necessary. Compression and decompression tech will get better for the SSD I/O, and the GPUs will be better at decompressing GPU-format data themselves, so they probably only really need to double the RAM capacity but get something closer to effectively 3x current gen in practical usage.
More RAM allow more dense and detailed images/worlds/objects in engines that do stuff like Lumen or Nanite, and wouldn't need to stream from SSD that frequently so could save resources to do something else. If they are also use AI to improve some stuff such as DLSS (including frame generation) equivalent, or for several AI things Sony patented (such as offering different types of help to the player depending on his behavior and the one from similar players) extra RAM is required for that. It also would help with other things like multitasking.
I think it's more likely that we'll get 32GB, but if by 2027 they can get 64GB for a decent pricing I'd go for it.
Maybe the only other thing I'd see happening differently is the use of PS6 games purchased across all device types. I can't see Sony letting users do that without still having a PS6 in some capacity, so something where user root privileges are tied to the console in some hidden partition synced with the cloud over their network. Only then can a user stream their purchased game to any of those other devices.
My idea is that PSN would be their PS6+PC+Mobile crossbuy store. You buy the game once and have it in all platforms to be played there natively (if released there) or via cloud gaming. With cross-save if you have PS+ via cloud saves .
PS6 would continue having exclusives + BC (which woudln't be available in PC/mobile), and the -mainly non GaaS- PC ports would continue to be released later than in PS, 2+ years than its original release. So a small portion of the PC and mobile players would want to migrate to PS to play all the games natively.
The sales of PS6 1P and 3P games (main SIE business) would increase because even people without the PS6 hardware would buy PS6 games and PS+ subscription.
No remote play needed: if a mobile player who doesn't own the console would be able to pay PS+ Premium, buy a PS6 to play it via streaming like in Stadia. If later he gets a PS6 would be able to play it natively. Same goes with PC, could be played natively in PC if the game was released on PC.
A PC player would be able to pay PS+ Premium and buy PS6 game to play them in via cloud gaming if not released for PC. To play it natively they'd have to buy a PS6 or to wait until they release it on PC if they ever port it.
TBH I'd like to see Horizon 3 as a next-gen only game; HFW is still easily one of the best-looking games on the market, even the base PS4 version. But Burning Shores shows that ambitions were held back by needing to support PS4. I don't want Horizon 3 to be similarly held back by PS5 by the time it releases later on in the decade. So I'd like that to be a next-gen only offering.
According to the leaked roadmap, Spiderman 3 Part 1 is scheduled for a 2027 release. Honestly if it were up to me, I'd just let Venom be a "swan song" of sorts from Insomniac for the PS5 gen, and get Spiderman 3 lined up for PS6's launch as a next-gen exclusive. Between that and Horizon 3 they'd have two massive heavy-hitters out of the gate. That could give the next God of War another year or so in development.
The thing is that launch games don't sell a shit due to low userbase available in the first year. So the launch games better be crossgen or cheap. So if Horizon 3 or Spider-Man 3 are released in launch window/launch day, they should be crossgen to don't cause a financial disaster.
On top of this, both games are now under development but they don't have next gen specs, devkits or engines, so they are being made as PS5 games and even if releasing them as PS6 only games they'd look the same. The only difference between making them crossgen or not would be basically to leave money in the table.
IIRC Team Asobi are making some new Astrobot game for the PS5; if they can do something for the PS5 and it's free, it'd probably be a scaled-down (in size) version of whatever they release for PS5, and serving the role Astro's Playroom did at PS5's launch. I wouldn't expect it to be a full game in that role. The other stuff I can see happening no problem.
We don't know if their next game will be Astrobot or not. We know it's going to be a 3D action game with humor that will be bigger than the Astro games. Independently of being an Astrobot game or not, I expect it to be released in late 2024 or more likely 2025.
In addition to this game, they have been working on many prototypes. I assume some of these prototypes are to test potential new PS6 stuff, so they could merge them into a small and free Astro ready for PS6 launch.
mm...there has to be some caveats here. For starters cross-play should be optional, not forced. A console FPS player shouldn't be forced to play with a PC FPS player who might have more suitable controls, more powerful rig and higher-refresh monitor which would give them a competitive advantage. They also shouldn't be forced to play against mobile players who could be hampered by inferior input methods and thus not provide a suitable challenge or teamwork.
I don't know about crossplay shooters, but in the Street Fighter games you have an option to enable or disable crossplay.
Another thing with cross-buy is that it effectively eliminates the need for double-dipping, but that also means less software revenue. Including mobile and PC in that mix, this IMO could only honestly work if Sony has their own storefront on both of those platforms, and cross-buy is limited to the storefront level. It doesn't make business sense for Sony to let a PS6 owner buy a PC version of their game on Steam and then not need to buy that game off the PS Store for the console, but still get a copy for their PS6.
As I mentioned the PC and mobile players would be from Sony's storefront: their PSN store. No 30%/12% paid to anyone. PSN would be the only PC/Android store where they'd release their PS6 games (the ones released for PC/Android).
After a few years building userbase with PS5 games that would also be released on Steam, Epic and Google Play. The games you got in Steam, Epic or Google Play would be automatically added to your PSN library.
From my understanding, that's kind of how Microsoft's cross-buy works; the root platform you initially buy on doesn't matter, as the cross-buy license is at the software level.
Yes, Microsoft copied Sony's patented cross-buy and works in the same way. Sony did use it between PS3, PSP, Vita, PS4, PS5 and now they'd add PS6, PC and mobile.
But for a company like Microsoft, that business model is fine because they aren't nearly as reliant on game software revenue as a main pillar, in relation to the rest of the corporation's cash flow. For companies like Sony that isn't the case; if they can provide incentives to double-dip, that works better for them, and can still be fair for customers.
Yes, I think it's more likely that Sony will continue making double dip even in their own PC/mobile store. But looking at what they did with their other stores for the different home and portable consoles, crossbuy, I think it's something they'll also use in PC and mobile.
Having crossbuy makes both strores more appealing for the user because having catalog in another makes more appealing the other one, and gives more value to the purchased game.
A PS (or even a PC non PS) user if some day wants to buy some PC game, may prefer to do it on PSN instead of in Steam knowing that with the PSN version he also will have the game availabe to play on PS. Or if it's a game like Fortnite/PUBG/Genshin Impact, may get it there because his progress and purchases there will be also available in his phone version.
And for PS6 games not available to be bought/played natively on mobile or PC, they'd be able to be bought to play in the cloud in that store too if they also bought PS+ Premium.
Sony would want to grow their PC and mobile stores as much as possible, and being a bit generous in exchange of providing extra value would help. At the end, the user already would have purchased the game but now it could be engaged to the game in more places, so in average could play more time. Which means that on average would spend more.
I'd picture Sony going about it like this: if there's no PC or mobile PS storefront involved, you still get cross-save and cross-play across all supported devices in the ecosystem, but cross-buy is probably only available to users who buy the console version initially, and the cross-buy is more like a discount for another version of the game on a different platform (PC for example), that discount tied to a PS+ membership and maybe using PS Reward points across devices.
There would be a PC and mobile storefront. It could be the same PSN store already available in the PS App or web, but adding here PC or mobile tabs as platform. Crossbuy and cross-save wouldn't work with Steam/Epic/Google Play. It would only work between PS consoles and the games from the PSN PC/mobile storefronts. Crossplay would continue working with everything because for multiplayer games is key to have access to the bigger pool of players possible, specially in the competitive ones. Because the more people available the more chances are to find connected someone closer to you (less latency/ping) and with more similar level/rank to you (more fun and less frustrating gameplay).
With a storefront on PC and mobile, that changes a lot. Particularly with cross-buy, where as long as the purchases are on PS storefronts, it doesn't matter the initial device the game is purchased for, and you don't need a PS+ membership to get a discount on buying the game on another platform (but with a membership, you can get an even better discount). I think that makes more sense for the business model here.
It could also work with a discount. But I think it would be more effective and welcomed doing it rossplay to reduce as much as possible the negativity of some hardcore fans who can't accept that Sony needs to grow to PC and mobile.
Nah, some of this is probably going to change even within the next 12 months. For starters I really do think that porting window is going to increase; for the current-gen games that do get ports, it should be 4-6 years after console, not 1-2, and should be within 1-2 years of a new entry or big release from that studio coming to console. But this is assuming no plans for a storefront on PC (that they're somehow able to monetize tying in PS+ subscriptions as optional).
No, Uncharted 4 being released 6 years after its original release performed way worse than the other big sellers even if bundled with a shorter game. I think partially also due to being the 4th entry and not the 1st one. With TLOU worked well being a 10 years old game but I think because it also was a recent remake and had the tv show bump. Sony is happy with the around 2+ years since original release timeframe for non-GaaS titles, so I think they'll continue with it.
I think they'll continue wanting to keep it even in their PC storefront to continue giving their console some timed exclusivity for the games planned to be ported.
I think that strategy changes heavily if Sony have their own storefront on PC, but I also don't feel they're in the position (either in need or want) to do this for many more years.
We don't know when Sony will release their PC store, but we know they are working on it. So it's fair to assume they'll release it in a few years. I'd say they are simply waiting to build a good enough library of 1st party PC games.
Yeah for GaaS/live-service titles a tiered approach of no ports (some games), Day 1 (some other games) and 1-2 years (yet some other games) would be best. Again, assuming there is no PS storefront on these platforms.
I'd keep that even with their PC storefront
I mean, in an eventuality where Sony does bring a PS storefront to PC and mobile, I would expect this. I'd also expect them to court 3Ps who are already doing PC ports to make those PC versions available on their own storefront, and same with mobile there. Otherwise as you've said, it'd be relegated to cloud for the time being.
That said, I don't see Sony really making this type of push anytime too soon. Once they start prioritizing PS store for PC and mobile, some form of erosion is naturally going to set in for the console side of things. It will, naturally, create less value proposition for the console, so it's best to only really begin this push when it seems the console market in and of itself is finally beginning to truly shrink.
Which, at least for Sony and Nintendo, isn't happening right now or for the foreseeable future. And, doesn't have to happen for a good while longer if they continue to innovate in how they develop and position their consoles in the gaming market, taking advantage of what that business model can do for game development, technological development & innovation, scale of production & manufacture, and the such. That's why with this PS6 speculation, for example, I tried steering away from too much on the technical specs like what the GPU TF, ROPs, bandwidth etc. are going to be, because to me "more power" isn't going to be enough of a factor.
Their priority will continue being their console, because it will continue being their main revenue and profit source for many years.
I think their PC and mobile userbase will slowly grow and will take several years to have a big and meaningful userbase. But will continue being their main revenue source for minimum a decade or two from now.
Their console will continue being the best place to play, with the biggest catalog and the only place where you can play natively many games at least temporally. And now will have the extra value of that if you travel you'll be able to play your games on a smart tv, mobile, PC, PS Player etc. often via cloud gaming. And some people will buy games for it or the PS+ Premium subs even if they don't own the console.
Regarding specific content for the PC store, they acquired or hired dedicated porters. And regarding mobile (+ PC) they have also making many deals with top mobile Japanese, Chinese or Asian publishers and devs. So their console teams will continue focused on console, SIE will have other people for the PC and mobile stuff.
In the PS5 generation we'll see the first steps, but specially in the PS6 generation we'll see MS, Epic, Sony, Apple, Amazon, Google, Tencent trying to have their crossplatform gaming platforms that will cover PC, mobile, smart tvs and in some cases console partially via cloud gaming. Nintendo too, but as always like in any innovation they'll go like 10 years late.
So for Sony, again it's going to be important to be the innovator and lead the way since the start and build an unmatchable userbase and catalog before other ones do. As happened with cloud gaming, multi game subs, console VR and many other things it will grow slowly and there will be haters, but they'll lead it.
For me, when it comes to M&As I think Sony only need one or two big (well, quite small compared to ABK, but you get the point) 3P publishers, preferably one Japanese/Asian and one Western, to round out their 1P pipeline. I don't see publishers like Capcom being acquired, but like you said, joint ventures/key investments (and I'd also add share purchases to that) etc. would go a long, long way.
I think as far as M&As go, the Japanese/Asian prospect most likely comes down to Square-Enix or MiHoYo, or an equivalent to MiHoYo in the Chinese/Korean space with lots of GaaS/live-service experience and success. Or, Sony could look for a studio to complement the Aniplex side that do the Demon Slayer mobile GaaS title, and adopt that scaled up to the console & PC with other popular anime IP, maybe in tandem with those Kadokawa owns or Square-Enix work with, and maybe with several popular IP in one GaaS live-service property.
After the success with MiHoyo, they are signing similar partnerships with oher Asian studios, as the recent one with a top Japanese mobile dev, who has some games that seem to have potential to be the next MiHoyo when expanding them outside Japan and probably also bring them to console. I assume they'll try making games with them and wherever they see the opportunity they will acquire.
I'm not sure about the possibilities of acquiring Chinese companies like MiHoyo, whose value skyrocketed due to the big Genshin success. Because the Chinese government is very protective with strategic companies being acquired by foreigners, and also many of their big companies are partially or totally owned by their government to avoid foreign interference or foreign governments using them to spy them.
In that case, they wouldn't need to acquire a prospect like MiHoYo (though, continuing to partner with and invest in companies like MiHoYo should be a priority); a smaller studio could probably work better, like Vanillaware or Arc System Works, or Level 5, and you just establish things between them and the Aniplex studio, adopt the Demon Slayer framework to scale on console & PC, get some popular anime licenses to work with and get to work. Maybe any team members from the FF XIV and From Software sides wanting to work on such a project could be picked up, and maybe some with experience working on IP like Monster Hunter would like to work on something like this as well.
I love the games from Vanillaware or ArcSys, but they don't sell a shit. Unless in the case of ArcSys, when they did use the Dragon Ball IP in this recent game (in the past they did one for GBA that didn't work). I think it would be great to actuire ArcSys too to allow them use top Sony IPs who could fit. I think it would be positive for Sony, specially for the eSports and cross-division potential.
Regarding the MiHoYo-like projects, they are in a very different scale: making console+mobile+PC F2P GaaS titles they reach a way bigger audience and potential revenue.
For the Western side, it'd probably come down to one or two of them for an M&A: either Annapurna or Devolver Digital, and either Dotemu or Raw Fury. Likely wouldn't be all four. I'd personally also consider Ember Lab.
Yes, I didn't mean they should acquire all of them. Same goes with the big publishers. I assume many of them won't want to sell, or that it would be too expensive all, at least relatively at the same time. I think they should approach them all to explore possibilities. Maybe some will be open to sell, other may be open to some timed exclusives or marketing deals, other one may be ok with a joint venture, etc.
Yeah, good potential strategies. I'd say tho that even if M&As of any of these doesn't happen, nothing stops Sony from pursuing most of these strategies. For example, they can easily still partner with Bandai-Namco for SIE-themed merchandise, or Kadokawa/Square-Enix for some new feature to Crunchyroll that includes 'interactive manga', as some additional tier. Which can then be made available in some sampler way to PS+ subscribers (same with Crunchyroll, in a sort of sampler form) at no additional charge (I mean they did just increase the sub costs by 33% :/).
They can partner with companies like Kadokawa, Bandai-Namco, Sqaure-Enix etc. now to do art books, novels, manga adaptations etc. of certain SIE properties. It'd just be between two independent companies, so revenues would be going split between them and profits as well. Finding ways to tie some of this stuff into the PS console proper (like for example, as perks of being a PS+ subscriber, or being able to use PS Reward points towards redeeming for digital versions of these types of manga volumes and artbooks), is where it'd get really interesting.
Yes, beyond acquisitions they can make deals in these extra areas, which could also ease extra deals in gaming.
. Console platform holders gotta find a way to penetrate those markets and have successful, local and finely tuned operations in emerging Asian markets.... including Russia. A market like Russia, semi-western oriented more so - self bans are utterly moronic when the competition is not doing the same. No such thing as unilateral disarmament in an arms race. Steam serves what? 10 million or so consumers on Russia?
