PS5 topping the Best Sellers lists on Walmart, Best Buy, Amazon and GameStop, meanwhile Xbox sales are imploding

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That supply graph for Series S does show spikes in q4 of each year, does Microsoft count Q4 as holidays? The idea that they're juicing the supply channels full of cheap Series S for black friday and christmas sales does make sense. In that case the "customers" wouldn't actually be end users, but retailers.
Yes, microsoft have stated in the past that they make more over Holidays than they do for the rest of the year combined. That's why they release their big hitters in oct/nov, to catch the holiday wave of halloween, black friday, thanks giving and christmas.

They usually flood the channels with consoles and do deep discounts to shift units. All of their data is artificial and not organic and it has been that way since the Xbox 360.
 

Alabtrosmyster

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I would absolutely love to see why there's such a massive shift in consumer preference between the Series X and Series S just out of nowhere. I made a graph that illustrates how that looks.

IfxJvLM.png




How can we have a sell-through estimate of 18.5M by the end of the year with 22M in shipments and an issue with stock at the same time? I would assume that 2.5M delta would mostly come from an outside the US estimate, since both consoles are pretty much readily available everywhere (EU and UK especially, and they are the two biggest markets outside the US).
I don't know, there must be some heavy discounts at times, or this is what's readily available.

I know that locally there are tons of them available on the cheap in FB marketplace, around 100$ off! So a lot of people are not happy with them for sure.
 
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riesgoyfortuna

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Anyone that thinks I might be a shill or Xbox fanboy knows nothing about me. I'm just one of the few (only?) people in the sales community that will talk about Xbox as in depth as others do with PlayStation and Nintendo, but with the setback of needing to do a lot of math.

I can be (and currently am) very critical about Xbox's current position in terms of hardware and software output and focus, and I've had periods of time where I didn't even touch an Xbox. Spent most of the 6th gen on GameCube, GBA, and PS2 over the Xbox, and in the 7th gen playing the Wii and a bunch of PS3 exclusives up until 2010. I'm currently thinking about buying a PS5 this holiday if that rumored slim is real and comes with a neat holiday bundle or price promo because other than Starfield, Hellblade 2, and Avowed, Xbox has nothing else for me coming out in the next year or two. I want to play God of War and Final Fantasy 16.
Your numbers May be wrong, (i Dunno to be honest) but i dont see you as a xbox fanboy or anything like that, you can have xbox as your Main console or preference, and thats fine, i have a series x and two series s myself and im the most ardent anti xbox fanboys here
 
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riesgoyfortuna

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Microsoft dropped the price of OG Xbox from £399 to £299 within a very short time because they weren't moving units.

I bought one launch day and after the price drop Microsoft gave me a choice of 2 pads and a game or 2 games and a pad.
I was there i got the first xbox at launch it cost me 80,000 pesetas, they dropped the price to 50,000 in less than a. Month
 

Welfare

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I would absolutely love to see why there's such a massive shift in consumer preference between the Series X and Series S just out of nowhere. I made a graph that illustrates how that looks.

IfxJvLM.png




How can we have a sell-through estimate of 18.5M by the end of the year with 22M in shipments and an issue with stock at the same time? I would assume that 2.5M delta would mostly come from an outside the US estimate, since both consoles are pretty much readily available everywhere (EU and UK especially, and they are the two biggest markets outside the US).
It's not consumer preference, it's Microsoft shifting production from the X to S so they make more units during COVID. Remember that was a time where everyone was scraping by to make as many units as possible. More Series S can be made per wafer of silicon than the X.

I linked my thread for US availability, and there were plenty of reports in the summer of 2021 that Series S was becoming more available elsewhere while the X was still incredibly hard to find. A spike for that and a ramp up for the holiday season where the S really was the only option to buy for the most part (Series X didn't come in until December but even then not in large numbers) lines up with the sudden availability of the S.

Consoles will typically have 1-2M or more unsold at any given time. PS4 and XB1 were like this despite having different demand levels. Series S and Xbox All Access would make up that Delta, plus any Series X still in the process of shipping.
 
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Darth Vader

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It's not consumer preference, it's Microsoft shifting production from the X to S so they make more units during COVID. Remember that was a time where everyone was scraping by to make as many units as possible. More Series S can be made per wafer of silicon than the X.

Is Q4 2022 still part of "covid"? Why is there no holiday sales bump for the Series X, but there's one for the Series S? Like, Q3 to Q4 2022 you're talking about a 3X bump in "sales" for the Series S and a very negligible bump (within almost margin of error) for the Series X.

I linked my thread for US availability, and there were plenty of reports in the summer of 2021 that Series S was becoming more available elsewhere while the X was still incredibly hard to find. A spike for that and a ramp up for the holiday season where the S really was the only option to buy for the most part (Series X didn't come in until December but even then not in large numbers) lines up with the sudden availability of the S.

US =/= The World

Consoles will typically have 1-2M or more unsold at any given time. PS4 and XB1 were like this despite having different demand levels. Series S and Xbox All Access would make up that Delta, plus any Series X still in the process of shipping.

1 to 2M, yet your first estimate was at 3.7M and the second one at 2.5M (while having a stock shortage!). Don't you see the contradiction here?

Edit: What it seems to me is that you're starting from a number you think makes sense, say 20M, then grabbing the revenue values for hardware (which you don't know if it includes peripherals, as we've established), and then you're extrapolating a sales number based on... Luck?

For example, if the 18.5M sell-through is correct and there's a console shortage, you wouldn't have 2.5M on retail channels, you'd have maybe 1M or so.
 
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ethomaz

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Anyone that thinks I might be a shill or Xbox fanboy knows nothing about me. I'm just one of the few (only?) people in the sales community that will talk about Xbox as in depth as others do with PlayStation and Nintendo, but with the setback of needing to do a lot of math.

I can be (and currently am) very critical about Xbox's current position in terms of hardware and software output and focus, and I've had periods of time where I didn't even touch an Xbox. Spent most of the 6th gen on GameCube, GBA, and PS2 over the Xbox, and in the 7th gen playing the Wii and a bunch of PS3 exclusives up until 2010. I'm currently thinking about buying a PS5 this holiday if that rumored slim is real and comes with a neat holiday bundle or price promo because other than Starfield, Hellblade 2, and Avowed, Xbox has nothing else for me coming out in the next year or two. I want to play God of War and Final Fantasy 16.
It doesn't matter if you are a Xbox fanboy or not (I have no issue with assumed fanboys btw).
The issue is that your numbers are always overestimated to Xbox and underestimated to PS.

It could be fine if you have said "I was wrong on my estimate... it is probably around XXX and YYYY now".

But not... you choose the bullshit path... you choose to "backup" your previous estimates dropping the SOLD and increasing the SHIPPED lol
Creating a narrative that there is near 4 million Xbox on shelves at end of 2022.

Nobody will believe you because it is basically impossible to be true.

It's not consumer preference, it's Microsoft shifting production from the X to S so they make more units during COVID. Remember that was a time where everyone was scraping by to make as many units as possible. More Series S can be made per wafer of silicon than the X.

I linked my thread for US availability, and there were plenty of reports in the summer of 2021 that Series S was becoming more available elsewhere while the X was still incredibly hard to find. A spike for that and a ramp up for the holiday season where the S really was the only option to buy for the most part (Series X didn't come in until December but even then not in large numbers) lines up with the sudden availability of the S.
That is true... MS choose that path during Covid.
But soon enough Series S become heavy avaiable in a lot of countries and MS didn't shift back to increase Series X production that ended in what happened in 2022.

COVID lockdowns ended years ago... basically when most of the population become vaccinated the lockdowns ended... lockdown was just a strategy to decrease the number of UTIs in the hospitals because they didn't have the infrastructure to support all the COVID cases..... with vaccination of the population you decrease the number of UTIs and so today the hospitals can support all cases just fine not needing lockdowns anymore... people still gets COVID btw and it will get maybe forever like some flu.

Put all the onus of MS strategy on COVID is rater dumb imo.

MS saw they decrease of Series S interest way before us but they choose not to fouce on Series X for whatever reason.
I believe MS Series X was just to be a paper launch to have the title of "world strongest consoles ever" but it failed... the Series S was always their main console for this generation (that for us PS fans is a huge let down because drive development to hold back due the weaker hardware and that affect PS5 on multiplatforms.. it should be fine if outside Xbox fans were not affected but it is).
 
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KiryuRealty

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Where it’s at.
It's not consumer preference, it's Microsoft shifting production from the X to S so they make more units during COVID. Remember that was a time where everyone was scraping by to make as many units as possible. More Series S can be made per wafer of silicon than the X.

I linked my thread for US availability, and there were plenty of reports in the summer of 2021 that Series S was becoming more available elsewhere while the X was still incredibly hard to find. A spike for that and a ramp up for the holiday season where the S really was the only option to buy for the most part (Series X didn't come in until December but even then not in large numbers) lines up with the sudden availability of the S.

Consoles will typically have 1-2M or more unsold at any given time. PS4 and XB1 were like this despite having different demand levels. Series S and Xbox All Access would make up that Delta, plus any Series X still in the process of shipping.
Sony reports sell-through numbers in their financials, MS reported sell-in when they still gave numbers. There’s a lot of evidence of stale stock for Series S out there that your calculations seem not to take into comsideration.
 

Welfare

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Is Q4 2022 still part of "covid"? Why is there no holiday sales bump for the Series X, but there's one for the Series S? Like, Q3 to Q4 2022 you're talking about a 3X bump in "sales" for the Series S and a very negligible bump (within almost margin of error) for the Series X.



US =/= The World



1 to 2M, yet your first estimate was at 3.7M and the second one at 2.5M (while having a stock shortage!). Don't you see the contradiction here?

Edit: What it seems to me is that you're starting from a number you think makes sense, say 20M, then grabbing the revenue values for hardware (which you don't know if it includes peripherals, as we've established), and then you're extrapolating a sales number based on... Luck?

For example, if the 18.5M sell-through is correct and there's a console shortage, you wouldn't have 2.5M on retail channels, you'd have maybe 1M or so.
Series X availability dried up in December. This isn't some secret knowledge.

Also, Microsoft said they are doubling cloud server capacity over the next 12 months from August 2022, and cloud servers use X chips. That was part of why Series X availability went down in 2021, when in June they announced they were upgrade their data centers to the X and in October Microsoft said they had finished upgrading their cloud servers to Series X




Series S is not in short supply, the X is. Remember that Microsoft put the Series S down to $249 in the US for 7 weeks in the holiday season. XB1 sold 2.5M the first holiday they did a $50 cut, and 3M when they went to $299, and 2.5M again when it went down to $249. If Microsoft anticipated such demand for a $249 S (why wouldn't they, no way you can reasonably say they cut the price to only maintain sales from last holiday, when the whole of 2022 before was up from 2021), they'd need to send a similar amount of units to be capable of being sold. XBS as whole did at best 2M in the US, down a lot by what should've occured going by historical data.

I don't start at a random number for hardware and try to get it through revenue. I go quarter by quarter trying to work it all out, using any type of language from Microsoft's reports to help figure it all out. I literally showed with evidence that it's possible to get these numbers from Q3 2014 financial results, which had a known total Xbox figure and calculated hardware revenue.

Using that same methodology, I then take the revenue for the quarter, let's say it's $500M.

I then take the price of the consoles, $500 and $300, and see what combination of units between the two can lead to $500M.

So for that example, you can have 1M X and 0 S, or 600K and <700K S, 400K X and 1M S, etc. What I then do is try using any available data, such as availability or just intuition like I do with NPD, and pick one that looks close to right. If in this example the X and S were about equal in availability, I could go with the second option, and if the X were hard to find while the S is plentiful, I'd be more inclined to go with the third option.

That's why my initial showing of my splits in the NPD thread were what they were. Series X and S availability both went down significantly after 2020 but I went with the outcome where S would start improving sooner than it probably did.

But something that can't be ignored is that the S just objectively did see massive supply improvements after June 2021. There is a spike there in availability, it can't be argued.

Also, like I've mentioned, my methodology is taking what worked when Microsoft gave more data. Even if you don't agree with the revenue aspect, it can lead to mathing out revenue and units in quarters where Microsoft provided unit sales. My methodology also worked out that XBS would be ahead of XB1 starting in Q2 2021, and that it was still ahead as of Q4 2021, and all the way up to Q3 2022. The only iffy bit is Q4 2022 because it's unknown if XBS is actually still ahead, and going by what I provided earlier, I have XB1 at 21.7M and XBS at 22M. That's very close and only slight changes to XB1 holiday quarters 2014 and 2015 would need to be made to put XB1 over XBS if indeed XBS has fallen behind.
 
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Welfare

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It doesn't matter if you are a Xbox fanboy or not (I have no issue with assumed fanboys btw).
The issue is that your numbers are always overestimated to Xbox and underestimated to PS.

It could be fine if you have said "I was wrong on my estimate... it is probably around XXX and YYYY now".

But not... you choose the bullshit path... you choose to "backup" your previous estimates dropping the SOLD and increasing the SHIPPED lol
Creating a narrative that there is near 4 million Xbox on shelves at end of 2022.

Nobody will believe you because it is basically impossible to be true.


That is true... MS choose that path during Covid.
But soon enough Series S become heavy avaiable in a lot of countries and MS didn't shift back to increase Series X production that ended in what happened in 2022.

COVID lockdowns ended years ago... basically when most of the population become vaccinated the lockdowns ended... lockdown was just a strategy to decrease the number of UTIs in the hospitals because they didn't have the infrastructure to support all the COVID cases..... with vaccination of the population you decrease the number of UTIs and so today the hospitals can support all cases just fine not needing lockdowns anymore... people still gets COVID btw and it will get maybe forever like some flu.

Put all the onus of MS strategy on COVID is rater dumb imo.

MS saw they decrease of Series S interest way before us but they choose not to fouce on Series X for whatever reason.
I believe MS Series X was just to be a paper launch to have the title of "world strongest consoles ever" but it failed... the Series S was always their main console for this generation (that for us PS fans is a huge let down because drive development to hold back due the weaker hardware and that affect PS5 on multiplatforms.. it should be fine if outside Xbox fans were not affected but it is).
Ethomaz, you do know Microsoft provided unit sales up to Q2 2015 right?

Here you go

XB1 LTD Q1 2014: 5.1M
360 LTD Q1 2014: 83.7M

Combined Q2 2014: 1.1M
Combined Q3 2014: 2.4M
Combined Q4 2014: 6.6M
Combined Q1 2015: 1.6M
Combined Q2 2015: 1.4M

Go ahead and give me your splits for XB1 and 360 for each of those quarters, as well as where XB1 is at for Q3 and Q4 2015, why you think that's the case, and then tell me your quarter by quarter shipments for XBS.

Remember that XBS went ahead of XB1 starting Q2 2021 up to at least Q3 2022.

If you're going to say my logic is impossible, show me. There being a large disparity in sell through for Xbox consoles with the holidays isn't even new. Xbox 360 was massively over shipped numerous Q4's as shown by the numerous drastic Q1 drops compared to the PS3 and Wii.

I'm also curious on where you stand regarding Xbox 360 vs PS3 LTD. Do you think PS3 pulled ahead at 87.4M or will your splits for the above numbers keep Xbox 360 ahead.
 

ethomaz

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Ethomaz, you do know Microsoft provided unit sales up to Q2 2015 right?

Here you go

XB1 LTD Q1 2014: 5.1M
360 LTD Q1 2014: 83.7M

Combined Q2 2014: 1.1M
Combined Q3 2014: 2.4M
Combined Q4 2014: 6.6M
Combined Q1 2015: 1.6M
Combined Q2 2015: 1.4M

Go ahead and give me your splits for XB1 and 360 for each of those quarters, as well as where XB1 is at for Q3 and Q4 2015, why you think that's the case, and then tell me your quarter by quarter shipments for XBS.

Remember that XBS went ahead of XB1 starting Q2 2021 up to at least Q3 2022.

If you're going to say my logic is impossible, show me. There being a large disparity in sell through for Xbox consoles with the holidays isn't even new. Xbox 360 was massively over shipped numerous Q4's as shown by the numerous drastic Q1 drops compared to the PS3 and Wii.

I'm also curious on where you stand regarding Xbox 360 vs PS3 LTD. Do you think PS3 pulled ahead at 87.4M or will your splits for the above numbers keep Xbox 360 ahead.
Do you know we are in 2023, no?

Plus neither you or me have data for 360 sold or shipment to say it was or not overshiped lol
 

Welfare

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Do you know we are in 2023, no?
So yeah just ignore it lmao.

I'm giving you an opportunity, hell, anyone the opportunity to actually use the numbers Microsoft provided in 2014 and 2015 and get the XBS shipment minimum.

Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling Xbox starting Q2 2022 and kept saying that until Q3 2022. You think my numbers are too big, provide your own or stop saying mine are impossible. It's all right there, official from Microsoft.
 

ethomaz

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So yeah just ignore it lmao.

I'm giving you an opportunity, hell, anyone the opportunity to actually use the numbers Microsoft provided in 2014 and 2015 and get the XBS shipment minimum.

Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling Xbox starting Q2 2022 and kept saying that until Q3 2022. You think my numbers are too big, provide your own or stop saying mine are impossible. It's all right there, official from Microsoft.
I'm not ignoring anythng...

You post unrelated numbers that shows anything of what you imply.

C'mon.

Where is the SOLD and SHIPPED numbers for the same timeframe that confirmed your "OVERSHIPPED".
You are even using combined 360 + XB1 shipmenent numbers lol

How can anybody take you serious?
 

Welfare

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I'm not ignoring anythng...

You post unrelated numbers that shows anything of what you imply.

C'mon.

Where is the SOLD and SHIPPED numbers for the same timeframe that confirmed your "OVERSHIPPED".
What? Unless I've completely misunderstood your complaint, you think my XBS number is too high.

I already explained why my number is the way it is, using Microsoft's own reported figures, trying to figure out where XB1 was, and then figuring out XBS.

Go quarter by quarter for XB1, figure out what it shipped in those quarters, see what its LTD is at Q3 2015, know that XBS is above that, and then figure out Q4 2022. If you can't do that with numbers provided by Microsoft I don't know why you think my numbers are impossible. You don't even trust analytic firms for sell through, do you not trust Microsoft's own shipment data?

Xbox 360 was a heavy Q4 console, not sure why Xbox One or XBS would be any different. We both know how hard Microsoft went in discounting Xbox each holiday.

 
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Darth Vader

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Series X availability dried up in December. This isn't some secret knowledge.

Maybe in the US. Again, the US =/= the world. Ever since late 2021 I could buy either a series S or X in lots of countries in Europe.

Series S is not in short supply, the X is. Remember that Microsoft put the Series S down to $249 in the US for 7 weeks in the holiday season. XB1 sold 2.5M the first holiday they did a $50 cut, and 3M when they went to $299, and 2.5M again when it went down to $249. If Microsoft anticipated such demand for a $249 S (why wouldn't they, no way you can reasonably say they cut the price to only maintain sales from last holiday, when the whole of 2022 before was up from 2021), they'd need to send a similar amount of units to be capable of being sold. XBS as whole did at best 2M in the US, down a lot by what should've occured going by historical data.

US =/= the world

So for that example, you can have 1M X and 0 S, or 600K and <700K S, 400K X and 1M S, etc. What I then do is try using any available data, such as availability or just intuition like I do with NPD, and pick one that looks close to right. If in this example the X and S were about equal in availability, I could go with the second option, and if the X were hard to find while the S is plentiful, I'd be more inclined to go with the third option.

So you grab available data (for the US only, I presume) or use the very scientific method of intuition, and then cherry pick which one feels best and work the math for the whole world, I presume. Love that methodology, you should apply for a job in data analytics.

But something that can't be ignored is that the S just objectively did see massive supply improvements after June 2021. There is a spike there in availability, it can't be argued.

The US =/= the world

Also, like I've mentioned, my methodology is taking what worked when Microsoft gave more data. Even if you don't agree with the revenue aspect, it can lead to mathing out revenue and units in quarters where Microsoft provided unit sales. My methodology also worked out that XBS would be ahead of XB1 starting in Q2 2021, and that it was still ahead as of Q4 2021, and all the way up to Q3 2022. The only iffy bit is Q4 2022 because it's unknown if XBS is actually still ahead, and going by what I provided earlier, I have XB1 at 21.7M and XBS at 22M. That's very close and only slight changes to XB1 holiday quarters 2014 and 2015 would need to be made to put XB1 over XBS if indeed XBS has fallen behind.

So based on the very scientific method of intuition and years old data for a completely different system that didn't suffer this much fragmentation (xbox stopped sharing prior to the One X and the One S + magical availability numbers for the US you extrapolate 22M units sell-in. Got it.
 
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Alabtrosmyster

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So yeah just ignore it lmao.

I'm giving you an opportunity, hell, anyone the opportunity to actually use the numbers Microsoft provided in 2014 and 2015 and get the XBS shipment minimum.

Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling Xbox starting Q2 2022 and kept saying that until Q3 2022. You think my numbers are too big, provide your own or stop saying mine are impossible. It's all right there, official from Microsoft.

I'm not ignoring anythng...

You post unrelated numbers that shows anything of what you imply.

C'mon.

Where is the SOLD and SHIPPED numbers for the same timeframe that confirmed your "OVERSHIPPED".
You are even using combined 360 + XB1 shipmenent numbers lol

How can anybody take you serious?
I miss the days we had NPD numbers leakage on a regular basis.
 

Welfare

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And this is what I'm talking about.

Hey here's Microsoft taking Series X chips and putting them in data centers

"From my ass!"

The Series S became more available by a certain point, here's evidence for that as well as just the general understanding of everyone that was looking for consoles at the time noticing Series S was more available

"US /= the world"

The Series S price cut flopped in the US, look how the XB1 performed vs the XBS for a comparison, you know, the XBS that was ahead of XB1 worldwide before then, maybe just maybe Microsoft would expect it to do on par with that other system

"Using old data how dare you"

None of you in the last thread or this one are arguing the XB1 figures, why is that? You do understand that XBS was ahead of XB1 up to at least Q3 2022. Microsoft shipped a combined 13.1M Xbox's from Q2 2014 to Q2 2015. What do you guys think that split is, then apply the objective fact XBS was ahead, and figure out the rest.

It's almost like you guys ignore it because it most likely would lead you to a higher number than any of you are willing to admit.

My favorite has to be "pulling it out of my ass." No shit. If I were leaking numbers I'd be silenced immediately. Everything that doesn't come from the manufacturer itself is all guess work based on available data.
 
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KiryuRealty

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Where it’s at.
And this is what I'm talking about.

Hey here's Microsoft taking Series X chips and putting them in data centers

"From my ass!"

The Series S became more available by a certain point, here's evidence for that as well as just the general understanding of everyone that was looking for consoles at the time noticing Series S was more available

"US /= the world"

The Series S price cut flopped in the US, look how the XB1 performed vs the XBS for a comparison, you know, the XBS that was ahead of XB1 worldwide before then, maybe just maybe Microsoft would expect it to do on par with that other system

"Using old data how dare you"

None of you in the last thread or this one are arguing the XB1 figures, why is that? You do understand that XBS was ahead of XB1 up to at least Q3 2022. Microsoft shipped a combined 13.1M Xbox's from Q2 2014 to Q2 2015. What do you guys think that split is, then apply the objective fact XBS was ahead, and figure out the rest.

It's almost like you guys ignore it because it most likely would lead you to a higher number than any of you are willing to admit.
It’s like you’re unwilling to admit you are a bit of a cheerleader for the green team and bias your numbers accordingly.

The sell-in Vs sell-through thing is a huge difference, and you don’t account for it, do you?
 
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Welfare

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It’s like you’re unwilling to admit you are a bit of a cheerleader for the green team and bias your numbers accordingly.

The sell-in Vs sell-through thing is a huge difference, and you don’t account for it, do you?
I've explained this a few times already. There's no bias in this lmao, how would that even change anything in how I do this stuff. I've laid out my entire method, with multiple different avenues to get XBS to over 20M.

I don't know what I'm more impressed by, the refusal to think XBS had an awful holiday performance thus leading to the high amount of unsold units, or that 3M is actually an impossible number of unsold units.

PS4 had 3.7M unsold units after holiday 2016. Sound the alarm.

57.1M shipped and 53.4M sold through.

Ampere has Switch 119.5M sold through. Switch shipments are at 122.5M. Oh no, 3M again!