I expect Xbox console userbase to shrink, indirectly increasing PS sales, userbase and market share. I also expect that acquisitions, GaaS, PC, mobile and movies/tv shows will continue helping Sony to improve their PS numbers. All that combined would make PS even more appealing to 3rd parties vs Nintendo than right now, which indirectly will help Sony in the PS vs Nintendo market share and userbase.
PS5 is already tracking behind PS4 globally with an Xbox that is collapsing in console sales and a Switch that is slowing down a good deal in its eighth year on the market. This is also with Sony accounting for a 2025 release of PS5 Pro, so it can be inferred that some combination of high console price, lack of massive games for the year on the level of an Elden Ring or Hogwarts Legacy, and Sony's own PC porting cadence are all contributing factors to this alongside extended cross-gen for big GAAS titles & sports games, and other games like COD and Minecraft.
If there's nothing acting as a big push for PS5 Pro in the holiday, while it will sell well, it might not do as well as the PS4 Pro did. That combined with continued erosion on the Xbox side might give Nintendo an opening in late 2024/early 2025 when they prepare to launch the Switch 2. Also keep in mind, Nintendo have a foothold in GAAS, mobile, and movies/tv as well. They also have a leg up on Sony in having a presence at theme parks (Sony have a couple game attractions at theme parks but they aren't on the level of Nintendo World), and even having presence in the FEC/arcade market (niche as it may seem to most traditional gamers) is a benefit on some level.
What would really help Sony in market share/userbase vs Nintendo, are the 60+ million PS5s they already have sold on account of launching the system almost 4 years ago.
I also expect the PC handheld market grow as their pricing for old/low tier devices get cheaper, and specially once MS and Sony -I expect both to do so- joint the PC handheld markets, and as the OS, cloud gaming and stores get more optimized and tweaked for these devices providing a better, more console-like seamless plug and play experience as they get iterating over time.
Why would Sony make a PC handheld? A Sony PC handheld would have to run on Windows or at the very least Linux, while PS4 & PS5 run on a custom version of FreeBSD. A Sony PC handheld does nothing for PS console owners unless they already have part of their ecosystem in PC on platforms like Steam.
If the only other benefit comes from Sony bringing all their games Day 1 to PC, then that just further erodes on value proposition for their consoles like PS5. Also the presence of needing a Windows license combined with expectation of freedom in storefront options for users means such a device would have to be priced for a nice profit margin upfront, which runs opposite of the traditional console business model.
If Sony are going to do a handheld, the best option is a PS6-based handheld with native compatibility to PS4, PS5 & PS6 games, so running on some evolved version of their custom FreeBSD PlayStation OS. As for Microsoft and PC OEMs...the improvements you are speaking about are still many years away from reaching true fruition. Many of those hinge on how optimized Windows can become for portable PC gaming. A lot of it hinges on how well Windows can be adapted for ARM chips. A lot of it depends on if ISP reliance and pricing improve, and if cloud providers can scale their infrastructure well against the increased costs to provide high fidelity to millions of client devices.
There are
TONS of hidden costs involved in that side of the PC cloud gaming (and cloud gaming in general) you might not be accounting for.
I think MS will release their PC handheld around 2026-2027, that Switch 2 hardware sales would peak around its 3rd year as usual (around 2028), and Sony would release their PC handheld maybe a couple years after PS6, as did with PS Player (so around late 2029-early 2030), at the point where the PC handheld market will start to mature highly pushed by Sony's device.
You still haven't explained why Sony would make a Windows or even Linux-based PC handheld gaming device if their consoles run on FreeBSD...
...unless you think PlayStation 6 is going to run on a different OS? Or Sony are going to push a PS launcher with all games Day 1 to it on PC? Or that Sony are going to somehow retain and push two different platform devices at high volume simultaneously i.e PS3/PSP or early PS4/Vita?
I think the 3rd party catalog, horsepower, cloud gaming (cloud gaming will be way better than now around 2030) and emulation options will be the keys that will make the PC handhelds push back Switch 2.
ALL of these things already exist on PC and have existed for some time now, even with the portables. The only thing not present (kind of) is suitable cloud gaming, but that's an issue in general not just limited to PC handhelds.
Switch 2 will, ultimately, still benefit from all of the things you list as benefits for PlayStation, such as transmedia presence, major IP (in Nintendo's case, as genuine system exclusives), a built-in dedicated fanbase, global presence, and very high production volume. But for some reason you think Switch 2 will suffer from advances of PC handhelds in a way you
don't think PS5 or PS6 would from either PC handhelds
or PCs in general, especially with Sony's porting cadence to the Windows platform on PC (to storefronts like Steam)?
Make it make sense
I think there are 5 main gaming experiences/gaming submarkets:
- Home console (in the living room/tv)
- Destop/laptop PC (in the office/bedroom, also using it to work)
- Handheld (dedicated portable console/PC gaming machines, paid games and pad focused)
- Mobile (people already has smartphones/tablets for other things, F2P games and touchscreen focused)
- VR (split into the accesory and standalone submarkets)
I think PC handhelds won't compete with Sony and Nintendo -at least for a while- in the home console side, where Sony will continue being the market leader by far.
But in the handheld side, where as of now Nintendo is basically the only player, PC handhelds will directly confront Nintendo as over time their market matures and becomes mainstream, once prices go down and key players as could be Sony and MS keep joining and improving the competition there.
You have a massive blind spot in this entire idea of yours: that somehow Nintendo will be vulnerable to advances in the PC gaming market that Sony, who are enabling growth of PC FAR more than Nintendo ever has, will not. And the only reason you've given to have this is...well, none, really. It's just what you feel to be the case.
And as to Microsoft's role here, you seem to not realize that a Microsoft that seriously pushes PC gaming (or positions Xbox as a PC-adjacent gaming platform, which seems will be the case for the next gen) actually poses more of a challenge for Sony than it does Nintendo. A portable Xbox isn't going to be able to tap into running "Windows on the go" as a selling point against a Switch 2 because the vast majority of PC people who use Windows besides gaming are doing it on a desktop or a laptop. And, it'll remain that way for at least another decade or more, because that's just ingrained in people's habits.
But a next-gen Xbox system that can run Windows apps, maybe even other storefronts like Steam? Well if it's priced well (it's going to cost noticeably more than a console no matter what), if they get enough OEMs to join in with their variants...that could effectively lock or even reverse some of the Xbox console drift to PlayStation. So if that reduces one path for Sony to gain new customers, that makes things more challenging for them. I don't think that type of factor exists to nearly the same degree for Nintendo.
Many people plays some 3rd parties/indies on Switch because -as happened before with PSP or Vita- it's the best, and basically only, portable device to play those games. PC handhelds will do it with the games being way cheaper, looking better and also having "crossbuy" with their desktop/laptop PC. And obviously with a way larger catalog.
So they're going to say what some of us have already been saying about PC WRT PS5, the same things you normally downplay as not being points of concern for Sony but somehow will be big points of concern for Nintendo? Despite the things you usually list as strengths for Sony, also existing as strengths for Nintendo?
....
They always say that, but later when released we see some some big publishers maybe releasing a handful games the first year and abandoning the device after it once they realize that they didn't sell a shit and that Nintendo won't pay them for porting more games.
What makes you think Nintendo are paying them to port games in the first place? Nintendo doesn't "need" those 3P sales the way Sony and Microsoft do. This isn't something anything close to what MS has had to do in getting 3P support on Xbox (via Game Pass deals), don't know why you're framing it that way.
Their 1st party and paid exclusives are the main reason of why people buys their devices.
Yes, that's right. And that's allowed them to sell hardware in numbers similar to PlayStation, sell software at extremely high volumes with nice profit margins, and generally draw in more net profits than either Sony/SIE or Microsoft on a regular basis.
Nintendo are arguably the most self-reliant of all the platform holders in gaming, that includes Sony, Microsoft, even Valve and Apple. And that's because they are the least reliant on 3P, tho of course they'd like to have 3P support their systems and will keep trying to garner their support as well.
And I think that in the future will be even more, since Switch won't be the only/better way to play 3rd party stuff on a portable/handheld.
Well it's a good thing they'll have their 1P games then huh?
Yes, because the 3rd party support is so weak since many people have Nintendo devices as a secondary device and play 3rd parties in other places where they run better, and because the amount of great games released for Nintendo devices is way smaller than in the other ones, so game sales get focused on a few 1st party games.
Now you're using a subjective qualifier (your definition of 'great games' would probably differ from the majority who buy Nintendo systems) to implicate that Switch 2 will underperform relative the Switch. Now yes, lots of people have Nintendo systems as secondary devices, but that isn't too much different from PC gamers who have PS5s as secondary devices, now is it?
You would say that the PS5s being used as secondary systems isn't hurting Sony/SIE, so why do you think Nintendo systems used as secondary devices hurts Nintendo?
But if you don't cherrypick limiting to 1st party -and even more, the top seller 1st party ones because Nintendo also has games with poor sales and attach rates, and check instead the total tie ratio of amount of games sold per console, PS always destroyed them.
The only Nintendo games that have, relative to their big sellers, "poor" sales and attach rates are in niche IPs well-known for smaller sales, like Metroid and Fire Emblem. Even then, those IP have seen big glow-ups this gen thanks to the Switch, just like how IP like Mario Kart did with the Wii.
At the end of the day, Nintendo's 1P have routinely been much more profitable for them than any other platform holder's 1P titles. That goes for SEGA, that goes for Microsoft (ignoring purchases like Minecraft and COD), that goes for even Sony/SIE. And what you'll notice is, the platform holders making big changes in strategy these days are doing so to increase profit margins off their
own software.
(Non paid) 3rd parties support PS way more than Nintendo because they sell way more in PS than in Nintendo.
They also support PS more because those 3P have developed for specs that Sony systems typically provide but Nintendo systems typically have not. As Xbox has shown, if the performance is there, the vast majority of those same 3P will make versions on non-Sony platforms even if the majority of their sales are coming from PlayStation.
Given the escalating costs of AAA, aiming for more modest productions is going to be an increased goal for 3P AAA for both traditional and GAAS titles. Which just makes it that much easier for systems like Switch 2 to "automatically" get their support.
Like in every generation, 3P will see they don't sell a shit on Nintendo, and that PC handhelds allow them to have a portable version of their games without needing to spend money on a port, because their PC games already run there.
Have you just conveniently ignored the sales games like Sonic and Hogwarts Legacy have done on Nintendo hardware? Or the majority of Japanese 3P devs for that matter? Or even companies like Microsoft with Minecraft?
I think it's fair to say 3P games do better on Nintendo platforms than some want to give credit for, assuming those systems aren't Gamecube or Wii U level disasters. Heck, go back to the N64 and you'll see several 3P (specifically
Western 3P) that did very well on the platform for sales.
So outside a few cases where they are paid by Nintendo to port the games or make an exclusive, or when they are also targeting a younger audience or want to put their games anywhere possible to get more money, 3P will be fine having their games on PC handhelds instead.
You keep pushing this like it's a big thing but you've yet to provide a single shred of proof. And you make it sound like the Nintendo equivalent of Microsoft paying 3P to put games on Xbox with Game Pass deals.
Which is just hilarious, because again you've provided no proof.
Switch 2 is supposed to have around PS4 Pro horsepower. Good luck fitting high end AAA PS6 games there. It will have issues not only to feature PS6 top tier games, but also PS5 top tier games.
There won't be an issue putting high end AAA PS6 games on a Switch 2 if Sony do the sensible thing and make a PS portable based on PS6 specs
.
Although, IMO that portable should focus on technologies that automate the scaling process for devs who at most just push metadata and small bits of code to the system, so Switch 2 versions might require a bit more effort unless Nintendo provide similar solutions.
And yes, despite what you may think, they do have the ability to. Even if not in-house, they can through collab with Nvidia, who I'm sure would love to implement such things in future GPUs for the PC desktop and server spaces.
As always, only a few AAA games (mostly ports of old games) in Switch 2 launch year and a few paid exceptions like Howgarts Legacy, where they can fit them decently. Outside that, as always the big high end AAA games will avoid Nintendo because their underpowered device won't be able to run them decently and because they don't sell a shit there. You're the desilusional here.
OMG
. Bro are you
really suggesting Hogwarts Legacy is only on Switch because Nintendo paid WB Games to port it there? Don't do this
I think the specific case of GTA6, a toned down version of the game could be possible with a lot of effort. It would depend on how much Nintendo pays for it and if their deal with Sony that Jim Ryan announced at the start of the generation allows it.
If Jim Ryan couldn't stop an Xbox version of GTA6 existing, why would they be able to prevent a Switch 2 version from existing? The only thing Sony/SIE's deal with GTA6 would extend to is global marketing rights (a very useful thing) and probably some cosmetic perks & bonuses like what they had going with COD. Maybe an exclusive early beta for next-gen GTA Online, or an exclusive early demo. Stuff like that.
But again here you are saying GTA6 on Switch 2 would only happen because Nintendo pays for it...did Nintendo pay for Take-Two & Rockstar to make those GTA handheld exclusives back in the day? Did Nokia pay for their exclusive GTA game way back when? Or is it more likely that T2 and R* decided to make GTA games for Nintendo of their own choice, that just happened to be exclusive due to system architecture differences?
Well, those differences would be nowhere near as pronounced these days, so I don't think T2 and R* are going to ignore a potential market for big sales like Switch 2. It's just a version of the game that'd come a year or after it's been on PS5, PS5 Pro and Xbox Series X (and maybe S).
Japan is a very handheld oriented market, but as budgets increase companies stop making exclusive games, and stop targeting Japan only as market searching instead games with a more global appeal.
Budgets only become a hindrance on exclusives if the profit margins vanish. Keep in mind a part for budget increases in transitions like 6th gen to 7th gen were because of pipeline retoolings to HD content. A large part (IMO) for budget increases in games like TOTK or BOTW were due to engine overhauls and various pipeline changes to benefit ALL future games produced afterwards.
So effectively, a couple of major games absorb R&D costs that are paid back over time due to the other games made. Even SEGA did this with Shenmue back in the day; a lot of that $70 million was for major engine development that would benefit other games like Virtua Fighter 4 and Yakuza.
I think Japanese devs, like the people from other Asian countries or the westerns already did, will release more in PC than now. That also means PC handhelds, meaning they won't need a Switch port to have a portable version.
Okay but that doesn't mean they're going to ignore a Switch version when Nintendo will have magnitudes more volumes of production annually than all of those PC handhelds combined will likely have over a 3-4 year period.
That's something you are ignoring for Nintendo, but seem to remember about when talking about Sony/SIE & PlayStation.
On top of that, on a global scale PS will continue increasing their userbase and market share, and will continue being the top 1 console for 3rd party. So I expect them to continue favoring Sony. Who btw already has signed deals with many Asian devs for this generation.
Uh, Sony/SIE have mainly signed deals with smaller Asian studios & when it comes to Japanese 3P, mostly for marketing deals.
The only exception there has been Square-Enix, but going forward I'm fully expecting them to stop doing timed PlayStation exclusives. At the very least, I can easily see games like FF Remake Part 3 being PS5, PS6 & PC (Steam) Day 1 releases, with a Switch 2 version later on.
I think this is quite impossible. PS is the main market for most 3P and will continue growing, plus tradionally in Nintendo devices other than a few exceptions only Nintendo games have great sales.
Again, you're ignoring recent history, let alone prior history with systems like SNES, N64 etc. On average most 3P multiplats between PlayStation & Nintendo might've sold better on PS, but not by margins embarrassing for Nintendo. In other words, not by margins we've seen between PlayStation and Xbox this gen for most 3P titles.
Also once again, at the end of the day being #1 for 3P sales doesn't mean everything, if it does little for the platform holder's profit margins. Sony/SIE have expressed they want to be less reliant on 3P, so that inevitably is going to mean things like less/more selective 3P timed exclusives and less/more selective 3P marketing deals.
If PC isn't really an option for marketing at a global level in a big way, and Microsoft are shifting away from a traditional console business model, who do you think that leaves to pick up more of those 3P exclusives and marketing deals?
Nintendo.
And now the 3P will have free portable ports with the PC handhelds, so for them if they have to choose will be better PS+PC than Switch 2+PC: more sales, less cost, better looking games and less optimization needed.
Somehow you've completely ignored the PS + Switch 2 dual ownership group, which would be much larger than the two you mentioned combined.
And it's
THAT combination why you will see a lot more 3P prioritize Switch 2 as a secondary platform (or in some cases, a primary platform) for their gaming content. Not comparatively "generic" PC portable handhelds (or those like Steam Deck which don't have the volume of production to compete with Sony & Nintendo).
