What comes next? The consequences of the FAILED acquisition of ABK by Microsoft

[KiryuRealty]

@Cool hand luke Enjoyed your OP!

So after firing 10,000 people (I assume) to make room for ABK, now there is no need.

My guess is that if they don't get the deal through, then more lower level employees will suffer, I suspect studios that are not performing will be shut down and the IP's will be locked away for eternity out of spite.

If the consoles don't sell any better, I expect they will minimize their hardware business or wind it down and focus on offering gamepass, games for sale on other platforms and their own PC launcher.... possibly trying to buy Steam down the line.

I think Phil will stay on till retirement.

They will hold onto the biggest IP's and try to make the studios into factories and just churn them out as often as possible, featuring season passes, DLC and microtransactions as much as possible.

Eventually they will ride all the IP's into the ground and either try to buy more or bow out but it will take some time.

Microsoft were never creative, they are not in gaming to make games or to entertain or for a love of the industry...they simply want to control and once they realize they cannot control, they will eventually lose interest.

Phil WILL stay until he retires.

He will be retiring in a week or two.

 

[Vertigo]

I don’t see how this can get any better. Gamepass will pretty much bankrupt Bethesda with Starfield alone. RIP

10 years worth of dev time sold for a rental fee. Yea… I’m sure that’s … not gonna work.

 

[Wraith Phantom]

 

[Cool hand luke]

Good question I saw raised on another forum: when does the Starfield PS5 port get announced?

These are disastrous days for Microsoft and they're going to want to recoup their investment.

 

[Nhomnhom]

Good question I saw raised on another forum: when does the Starfield PS5 port get announced?

These are disastrous days for Microsoft and they're going to want to recoup their investment.

As soon as they give up on Xbox.

I just don't see a scenario where Xbox reverts it's current momentum, if they actually believe Starfield is going to do it for Xbox I think they are crazy and after that it will be years before they have anything like that again.

 

[Yurinka]

My prediction:

• MS appeals and loses against the CMA, and maybe some other regulator also says nope. The acquisition is dead
• MS has to pay more Billions to ABK shareholders as compensation for not completing the acquisition in the period they established
• Nutella says that the gaming acquisitions are over and gives Phil Spencer 4 years more (until the end of this generation) to change radically their plans and turn the Xbox gaming division into something profitable or gets fired and replaced
• Since MS higher ups may be tired of wasting money and regulators may not allow them acquire CoD/ABK or maybe other top publishers (Take 2, EA, Epic, Valve) they change their strategy and instead on betting on big acquisitions goes to moneyhat big 3rd party exclusives including CoD and hire a ton of talent from any top AAA studio they can
• Kotick spends the Billions MS had to pay them for this stunt on hookers and coke to celebrate he's way richer and that nobody remembers the controversy they had before the acquisition
• Jimbo continues breaking records and growing in all areas. He doesn't sign any marketing deal or any other type of deal with Activision, and spends this money instead on the shooters that Sony will publish. At least one of them ends being more successful than the yearly CoD of that year
• In 2027 PS6 gets released, PS5 has a bigger market share than PS4 had at that point, Xbox gaming division continues not being profitable, ESVI still isn't released and instead of releasing a new Xbox console MS decides to fire Phil Spencer, kill the Xbox brand and fully become a 3rd party game developer focusing again in game sales and not including their games day one on GP

As soon as they give up on Xbox.

I just don't see a scenario where Xbox reverts it's current momentum, if they actually believe Starfield is going to do it for Xbox I think they are crazy and after that it will be years before they have anything like that again.

I think Starfield will be very good but not great and will release with some flaws, but due to fanboyism or for let's say don't bury Xbox or helping disabled people will get many great reviews and GOTY nominations or even some award.

But in sales I expect that minimum a couple of 2023 PS5 exclusives (they could be Spider-Man 2 and Final Fantasy XVI) will easily outsell it. I think Starfield won't cause a meaningful increase of Xbox sales or GP game subs.

Good question I saw raised on another forum: when does the Starfield PS5 port get announced?

Once its supposed timed console timed exclusivity period ends, maybe a year (who knows if even two) after its Xbox+PC release.

I don’t see how this can get any better. Gamepass will pretty much bankrupt Bethesda with Starfield alone. RIP

10 years worth of dev time sold for a rental fee. Yea… I’m sure that’s … not gonna work.

They are a MS subsidiary now, so won't bankrupt. As expected they'll simply cause even more loses for the MS gaming division. They may ttry to compensate them by releasing it on PS5 a year or two later.

 

[Swift_Star]

My prediction:

• MS appeals and loses against the CMA, and maybe some other regulator also says nope. The acquisition is dead
• MS has to pay more Billions to ABK shareholders as compensation for not completing the acquisition in the period they established
• Nutella says that the gaming acquisitions are over and gives Phil Spencer 4 years more (until the end of this generation) to change radically their plans and turn the Xbox gaming division into something profitable or gets fired and replaced
• Since MS higher ups may be tired of wasting money and regulators may not allow them acquire CoD/ABK or maybe other top publishers (Take 2, EA, Epic, Valve) they change their strategy and instead on betting on big acquisitions goes to moneyhat big 3rd party exclusives including CoD and hire a ton of talent from any top AAA studio they can
• Kotick spends the Billions MS had to pay them for this stunt on hookers and coke to celebrate he's way richer and that nobody remembers the controversy they had before the acquisition
• Jimbo continues breaking records and growing in all areas. He doesn't sign any marketing deal or any other type of deal with Activision, and spends this money instead on the shooters that Sony will publish. At least one of them ends being more successful than the yearly CoD of that year
• In 2027 PS6 gets released, PS5 has a bigger market share than PS4 had at that point, Xbox gaming division continues not being profitable, ESVI still isn't released and instead of releasing a new Xbox console MS decides to fire Phil Spencer, kill the Xbox brand and fully become a 3rd party game developer focusing again in game sales and not including their games day one on GP

You forgot to put cloud on your roadmap.

 

[Yurinka]

You forgot to put cloud on your roadmap.

• Sony adds PS5 games to their cloud gaming, and releases PS cloud gaming clients for smartphones, tablets and smart tvs and expand it to a few countries more, completing the PS Now long term plan they announced 10 years ago. Thanks to their bigger and better catalog, plus their superior cloud gaming technology that includes patented 5G specific cloud gaming optimizations, becomes by far the most successful cloud gaming platform. By the end of 2027 (around PS6 release) Sony dominates MS by over 2.5:1 in game consoles, game subs, cloud gaming and 1st party game sales.
• By 2028 MS announces that their new focus isn't the Xbox console or Gamepass, but instead Xbox Home a 'metaverse' that it's almost exactly as PlayStation Home was 20 years before, but in this case it will run in the cloud and will be exclusive for a VR glases made by an unknown random Asian VR company they just bought for that. Xbox fans start to claim that MS invented the metaverse and that they invented the VR, and that it will dominate gaming, that Sony is doomed, etc. That 'metaverse' and VR glasses will fail hard too, and Sony will dominate again. But for some weird reason some people will claim MS has a gaming monopoly.

 

[Nhomnhom]

The big question now is, does Sony assume MS will finally quit or do they act as if MS is still a threat to acquire their partners? I think the best move for Sony now it to not acquire anything big, just increase their stakes and keep buying individual studios.

 

[Dabaus]

The big question now is, does Sony assume MS will finally quit or do they act as if MS is still a threat to acquire their partners? I think the best move for Sony now it to not acquire anything big, just increase their stakes and keep buying individual studios.

I wouldn't assume Microsft ever quits and i agree with your assesment. Sony should acquire large stakes in key partners...then years later down the line go for a full acquisition. I wonder if sony would fall under the category of "big tech" or are they too small?

 

[ksdixon]

If there is a sweetheart relationshipbas fabled for the last 20 odd years with XB and Sega that'd get some of the ABK block off them. Dunno what it would do positive for Sega though.

If ABK get to stay independent with a 3 Billion Dear John letter attached, they should plunder the feel good nostalgia and relaunch classic GH with unified hub game/dlc.song store, new modern guitars with old color button chords. And whatever else they own, COD or something?

 

[KiryuRealty]

My prediction:

• MS appeals and loses against the CMA, and maybe some other regulator also says nope. The acquisition is dead
• MS has to pay more Billions to ABK shareholders as compensation for not completing the acquisition in the period they established
• Nutella says that the gaming acquisitions are over and gives Phil Spencer 4 years more (until the end of this generation) to change radically their plans and turn the Xbox gaming division into something profitable or gets fired and replaced
• Since MS higher ups may be tired of wasting money and regulators may not allow them acquire CoD/ABK or maybe other top publishers (Take 2, EA, Epic, Valve) they change their strategy and instead on betting on big acquisitions goes to moneyhat big 3rd party exclusives including CoD and hire a ton of talent from any top AAA studio they can
• Kotick spends the Billions MS had to pay them for this stunt on hookers and coke to celebrate he's way richer and that nobody remembers the controversy they had before the acquisition
• Jimbo continues breaking records and growing in all areas. He doesn't sign any marketing deal or any other type of deal with Activision, and spends this money instead on the shooters that Sony will publish. At least one of them ends being more successful than the yearly CoD of that year
• In 2027 PS6 gets released, PS5 has a bigger market share than PS4 had at that point, Xbox gaming division continues not being profitable, ESVI still isn't released and instead of releasing a new Xbox console MS decides to fire Phil Spencer, kill the Xbox brand and fully become a 3rd party game developer focusing again in game sales and not including their games day one on GP

I think Starfield will be very good but not great and will release with some flaws, but due to fanboyism or for let's say don't bury Xbox or helping disabled people will get many great reviews and GOTY nominations or even some award.

But in sales I expect that minimum a couple of 2023 PS5 exclusives (they could be Spider-Man 2 and Final Fantasy XVI) will easily outsell it. I think Starfield won't cause a meaningful increase of Xbox sales or GP game subs.


Once its supposed timed console timed exclusivity period ends, maybe a year (who knows if even two) after its Xbox+PC release.


They are a MS subsidiary now, so won't bankrupt. As expected they'll simply cause even more loses for the MS gaming division. They may ttry to compensate them by releasing it on PS5 a year or two later.

The deal is dead with any ONE of the FTC, CMA, EC or China competition board saying no. It’s in the purchase terms.

 

[Gods&Monsters]

I wouldn't assume Microsft ever quits and i agree with your assesment. Sony should acquire large stakes in key partners...then years later down the line go for a full acquisition. I wonder if sony would fall under the category of "big tech" or are they too small?

Sony is not "Big Tech" lol and they will never be. They are a manufacturer and entertainment company like Samsung and stuff.

Big tech is the companies everybody hates but we have to deal with them in the modern world because they are EVERYWHERE and they own EVERYTHING.

Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon are at the top.

Big Tech - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org