Will the PS5 outsell PS4?

[CrackmanNL]

Easily. PS gained a lot of traction in market share in the US (their most competitive market). Seeing the route of Xbox, it's going to benefit PS even more sales. Ahead in Japan and EU is catching up after literally being abandoned for 2 years (in favour of the shipment to US market). A lot of emerging markets with a growing/wealthier middle-class are entering gaming as well.

I keep repeating GTA6, Monster Hunter Wilds, Marathon are heavy hitters all coming in 2025. Wouldn't be surprised if they manage to reach 100million in 2025.
GTA6 will obviously boost momentum and no doubt at PS HQ they are aiming for a line-up to keep it going and benefit from it (e.g. Ghost 2, Wolverine, Horizon 3) and coast of that bigger user-base for to sell their (new) IP.

The only downside I will say is that PS4 in the latter years was regularly on sale for 200 with a library of games for 20 bux, I don't see that happening this generation regarding hardware and Sony isn't discounting 1st party as steep like in the past.

 

[2spooky5me]

I think it will just barely beat the PS4 L.T.S.
If they continue the PC course (or any other major economic variables), it may just stop at under 100M.

 

[Yurinka]

I keep repeating GTA6, Monster Hunter Wilds, Marathon are heavy hitters all coming in 2025. Wouldn't be surprised if they manage to reach 100million in 2025.

They sold 59.3M and plan to sell 18M more (total 77.3M) until March 2025. Let's say they achieve this, and also manage to sell 18M more until March 2026.

That would be 95.3M in March 2026 (not December 2025), but I think isn't likely because once a console passed its yearly sales peak year each year normally sells a bit less than the previous one.

But yes, in 2025 there are these, specially GTA6 and other stuff you mentioned plus other stuff still important as I think will be stuff like Death Stranding 2 and maybe also Venom, Horizon Online and Cory's new IP, which could be potentially supersellers.

In 2026-2027 I think we can see GoT2, Wolverine, ND's next game, Cory's new IP and Horizon Online if not released in 2025, Fairgame$, Housemarque's next game, Firesprite's next game (Until Dawn 2?) etc.

And well, as happened this gen with PS4 still getting crossgen games almost 4 years after the release of its successor plus content for its GaaS titles, I think same will happen with PS5, and very likely even beyond that considering that the amount of people with a PS+Extra/Premium or hooked in a GaaS or engaged in general will be way higher since it keeps growing every year.