XBox painted themselves into a corner

Darth Vader

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I've been meaning to post this thread for a few days, but I believe now that things have cooled off, we can have a better discussion about it.

For those out of the loop, which I doubt there are many, or even exist, due to the extensive media coverage of this, rumors have surfaced that Xbox will be putting at least some of their games on competing consoles, as well as changing their hardware strategy. This is a massive departure for a company that, until recently, was acquiring studios and publishers with the sole intent of creating an artificial leadership position in the market while removing IP from their competitors' consoles.

So, why have they painted themselves into a corner?

I think it's important to understand that they are a platform holder as well as a video games publisher, and that their games should serve their own platform. Putting even one single game on other platforms means that they lack confidence in the exclusivity of their own, and signals not only to their buyers but, more importantly, to third-party studios and publishers, that their business is not worth investing in.

And then we have this, the biggest shot in the foot I've ever seen in gaming history:



One of the rules about dealing with rumors, especially these kinds of rumors, is that you either deny everything, or you shut up until the prescribed announcement date. Phil, either coached by their marketing and legal team or simply due to being inept at his job, decided to create a tweet that does not deny any of the existing rumors, leaving their fans and buyers hanging for a week before receiving an update. This only led to more and more discourse, and more than likely false information stemming from all this.

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Now, I agree with those who say this won't be a full cataclysmic change for Xbox that will have them turn into a multiplatform publisher day one for all games. Here's more or less a summary of my thoughts regarding next week's announcement and what we can maybe expect from Microsoft/Xbox:
  • They will announce that Xbox consoles will remain the best and first place to play their games. I'm unsure if they will announce future hardware plans, but it's possible they will announce some sort of streaming stick or some future underpowered console for all their Game Pass offerings.
  • While I doubt they won't announce it, I think we can expect all their games to be ported to other consoles. They will likely announce smaller titles like HiFi Rush, and perhaps one megaton like Starfield, with the guise of "When everybody plays, we all win."
  • Again, unsure if they will announce, but I'm expecting ports to either come on day 1 or between day 1 and 6 months from release on Xbox.
  • I'm also expecting changes to the Game Pass structure and pricing, with the most expensive (new) plan getting day 1 releases, whereas lower plans will get discounts on release plus the game when it releases on other platforms.
I don't think they will get too much in the weeds, but what I do know for sure is this: No matter what they announce, unless it categorically states, "we're not porting games to competing consoles," the brand as we know it is dead. There's no chance third parties will now invest in a dying franchise, and Xbox will have Sega-ed itself real quick.
 

Nhomnhom

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More like they went full steam ahead into the abyss.

If they had any intention of staying in the hardware business they shoul've cleared things up completely last monday.
 
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Kokoloko

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Let's see what happens. Microsoft are a cunning, incompetent company for the most part...but have truckloads of money, and they have always tried to hurt and destroy their competitors.

Yeah Im still not buying all this exit from the console market. Or going fully 3rd party. Its too good to be true.
I’d they would try and work with Nintendo to kill PS before they ever concede the console space to PS
 
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Zeroing

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Any other company would not survive the xbox one fiasco or launching a new console without exclusives!
Sega went 3rd publisher for far less... What I mean is, as long MS is willing to throw money at the brand and influence media, the brand will be around and next week strategy will be praised on the media as "good".

But, I do think MS finally got tired of , year after year trow money to a brand that cannot compete,.
We are seeing signs that maybe MS wants xbox to be as profitable as possible , no matter what the "cost" for the loyal fans.
 

FatKaz

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Let's see what happens. Microsoft are a cunning, incompetent company for the most part...but have truckloads of money, and they have always tried to hurt and destroy their competitors.
Burning truckloads of money can't go on for long.

MS have hurt competitors, but it's mostly with their enterprise division.

Outside of enterprise no amount of money has saved them.
 
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Ecosystem rests on hardware. Without the hardware, there is nothing to build an ecosystem on. Simple as that. Third party publishing is like a supplier selling food to different restaurants, as opposed to owning the restaurant outright.

Anything that lessens consumer attraction to the hardware vis a vis competitors will work against adoption of said hardware. Whether the impact for each particular policy position/decision is small or big is inconsequential to the reality of the negative effect it produces. When various policy positions of this kind are added on top of each other.... well, it's like shooting yourself in the foot, on top of the pressure the competition is going to put up. Eventually your leg gives out, and the competition exhausts you or you lose the will and determination to carry on in such a state with no light at the end of the tunnel. Add to that doubling down and well.... it's what it's.

Sony is not immune to this - and they'll feel it in due time with their PC support. The competition just has to be there, and Xbox is clearly not it (they're worse). PC will eat away slowly. A direct console challenger on the other hand, much more immediate. Just need Xbox out the way so that a proper challenger that believes in hardware has enough incentive to give Sony the business. Preferably Nintendo, but Valve is positioned to do so as well (either Valve or whomever buys Valve out - which is why they're my least preferred Xbox alternative potential, in a post-Xbox console market, and not a place I would like to invest long term as my main or even alternate ecosystem). META is also a slim possibility, considering their Quest VR venture. With that said, Sony will have almost a gens worth of free terrain before a new serious challenger goes after them, unless Nintendo releases a Switch 2 Pro (which will be a half-way measure attempt but at least paves the way for a proper home console release).

Software differentiation is key to selling hardware. MS completely diluted this with regards to Xbox, despite the fact they've tried a myriad of ways to change the subject, steer consumer perception, and shape and build narratives to the opposite. Add to that mammoth acquisitions that beget sizable returns and here you are. MS could eat the loses but clearly they're no longer willing to do so - not at this level.
 
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Batzy

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Yeah Im still not buying all this exit from the console market. Or going fully 3rd party. Its too good to be true.
I’d they would try and work with Nintendo to kill PS before they ever concede the console space to PS
No one is. This is Nelson saying there is no off switch for the DRM and then they do switch it off.
Most don't care what they offer to win people back, the attitude is still behind their charity.
Like people were saying "So if they can turn it off so easy, what's stopping them from turning it back on? i'll pass"
 

reziel

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Yeah Im still not buying all this exit from the console market. Or going fully 3rd party. Its too good to be true.
I’d they would try and work with Nintendo to kill PS before they ever concede the console space to PS
It doesn't make sense for them to randomly pull themselves out with all the money they shelled to Sega to have all those marketing rights for all those games. More then likely they'll be sticking around still.
 
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SLB1904

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Xbox main problem was releasing games games day and date on gamepass. I wont be surprised next week they rebrand xbox and kill it off
 

Entropi

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Yeah Im still not buying all this exit from the console market. Or going fully 3rd party. Its too good to be true.
I’d they would try and work with Nintendo to kill PS before they ever concede the console space to PS

I used to think that, but after Satya Nadella's recent comments, I now believe that Phil went rogue and is or was determined to crown himself king of the gaming industry by spending all the competition out of business. Now, Satya has had enough of this and wants Xbox to start making a profit for Microsoft, something it hasn't done in the past 22 years.
 

Plextorage

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Xbox main problem was releasing games games day and date on gamepass. I wont be surprised next week they rebrand xbox and kill it off

Also keeping them for entirely there. Maybe for a few months and dropping them off just like Sony did before when it was PS Now. But Sony added their games much later on the service and like i've said, they weren't there long. 6 months maybe. But anyway, you get the point. MS also changed the habits of their userbase. They don't want to buy games. Instead of increasing sales it went down to collapse of software sales.
 
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AshHunter216

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Let's see what happens. Microsoft are a cunning, incompetent company for the most part...but have truckloads of money, and they have always tried to hurt and destroy their competitors.


It's a pretty big L for them even if they don't immediately drop console support(which they probably won't). Once any major non-GAAS start getting ported to other consoles, Pandora's box is open.

Thinking that this isn't a big deal unless they immediately drop console support is just letting the Xbox fanboys control the narrative.
 
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reziel

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It's a pretty big L for them even if they don't immediately drop console support(which they probably won't). Once any major non-GAAS start getting ported to other consoles, Pandora's box is open.

Thinking that this isn't a big deal unless they immediately drop console support is just letting the Xbox fanboys control the narrative.
Kinda feel like this whole thing is going to spin into tge situation of Xbox releases their games on rival platforms so why can't (Insert Name here) do it?
 

Gods&Monsters

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I now believe that Phil went rogue and is or was determined to crown himself king of the gaming industry by spending all the competition out of business.
100%. Phil appointed himself as the saviour of the gaming industry with the biggest cult following for a CEO since Steve Jobs. The media keep praising and showering him with awards.

You can see all his talking points about Sony spreading fast online. They still believe we need him to keep Sony in check. We didn't see the same fear when MS was threatening to buy all the publishers. That was good for competition 🙄
 
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