NPD December 2022 (PS5 #1 Revenue, Switch #1 Units, Xbox @ $200 Forever #3, Leaked LTD up to Nov 2022: 10.6m PS5 / 8.7m Xbox)
- Thread starter ethomaz
- Start date
MS won't say anything about Series performance against old generations because it is below Xbox One.
And to be fair it just was ahead Xbox One because the launch were split in several tiers.
Only in September 2015 we can say Xbox One started to have sales in a Global way.
It sold almost a year only in 13 countries lol
And to be fair it just was ahead Xbox One because the launch were split in several tiers.
Only in September 2015 we can say Xbox One started to have sales in a Global way.
It sold almost a year only in 13 countries lol
I have gone back and recalculated Xbox hardware shipments and as of the 2015/2022 period I have XB1 at 21.7M and XBS at 22.2M.
I have shown this multiple times but we can use Xbox hardware revenue to equal only console sales, and we know how many total consoles Microsoft shipped from Q2 2014 to Q2 2015.
The easiest quarter to work out is Jul-Sep 2014 as that is before the big US price cut to $349 in November. The vast majority of Xbox One's are going to be the $399 Xbox One. Something in the range of 70-80% as even though the $399 XB1 should have been a massive seller killing the Kinect SKU, we have a leak from the June 2014 NPD that shows only 55% of XB1 sales were from the $399 SKU, and the Kinect SKU wasn't even impacted negatively by its introduction. Over the next three months though there would be massive Fall releases like Madden (which had a successful $399 bundle) and Destiny which should've been pushing the lower priced SKU more.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit 2,400,000 or slightly above combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit 2,400,000 or slightly above combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.
We already know Xbox One shipments were 5.1M as of March 2014. We know Xbox shipped 10.1M Xbox 360's and XB1 for the next 9 months.
Apr-Jun 2014: 1.1M
Jul-Sep 2014: 2.4M
Oct-Dec 2014: 6.6M
As of now, I have XB1 making up 7.1M of that 10.1M.
Q2 2014: 0.4M
Q3 2014: 1.7M
Q4 2014: 5.0M
We could argue that these aren't exactly correct, maybe off by 100K in either direction, but in general, you would need a compelling reason for why XB1 would be far below these numbers for any given quarter when we know what total Xbox shipments are.
This would put XB1 at 12.2M shipments at the end of 2014. Phil Spencer said XBS was the fastest selling Xbox after holiday 2021, meaning XBS shipments are >12.3M, or if you want to low-ball by rounding, >12M.
Microsoft would then report Q1 and Q2 2015 total console shipments as
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.6M
Apr-Jun 2015: 1.4M
Specifically for Q1 2015, there is this quote
Microsoft specifies consoles volume is down, and Xbox One console price is down. This can mean two things
1. Both Xbox 360 and XB1 units are down YOY, Xbox 360 ASP was flat
2. Xbox 360 units are down YOY while price was flat, XB1 units are flat but price was down
The above would only really be arguing over at most 200K shipments, either XB1 was 1.2M again (same as Q1 2014), or slightly down.
Unfortunately, Q2 doesn't have anything specific due to Microsoft only comparing full FY results. I think XB1 shipping about the same as Q1 makes sense, the only real decline would be from 360.
This would then mean XB1 shipped anywhere between 2M and 2.4M in the first half of 2015. We would only be arguing over a few 100K at most at this point, and XB1 LTD would be low ball rounded down to 14M shipments, and more realistically ~14.5M. Microsoft says XBS was ahead of XB1 at this point (June 2022).
This is important now. The next two quarters of XB1 are going to be at least equal to what it shipped in 2014.
Q3 2015: Xbox hardware revenue decreased 17%, mainly due to lower volumes of Xbox 360 consoles sold.
Q4 2015: Xbox hardware revenue decreased 9%, mainly due to a decline in Xbox 360 console volume. Xbox One revenue decreased slightly, due to higher console volume, offset by lower prices of consoles sold.
Low balling Q3 2015, XB1 shipments are equal to 2014. Q4 2015 is unquestionably higher than Q4 2014.
Bare minimum rounding, from 12M at the end of 2014, 14M by June 2015, XB1 is right below 16M as of September 2015. A more reasonable estimate, using 14.5M for June 2015 LTD, Q3 2015 LTD for XB1 is ~16.2M. Satya Nadella still says XBS was ahead of XB1 at this point (September 2022).
Q4 2015 would be an additional 5M+, meaning XB1 at bare minimum is over 21M shipments at the end of 2015.
Since I've already proven hardware revenue is only consoles, and XB1 shipments are pretty much mathematically solved up to 2015, finding XBS shipments is fairly easy. The only problem would be figuring out the split between Series S and X.
Since XBS is over 12M shipments as of the end of 2021, we could just work from there, but I want to note how I get the hardware estimates I make. Revenue is not estimated, these numbers fit with all of Microsoft's reported gaming YOY figures along with total revenue and Content and Services revenue. The only estimates in the following tables are Xbox units. Q4 2020 had the last Xbox One shipments, so that'll make up some amount of revenue that quarter that XBS won't show.
| Quarter | Revenue | Series X | Series S | Total XBS | Running LTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $1,526,000,000 | 2,500,000 | 500,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 |
| Q1 2021 | $637,000,000 | 800,000 | 800,000 | 1,600,000 | 4,600,000 |
| Q2 2021 | $767,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 900,000 | 1,900,000 | 6,500,000 |
| Q3 2021 | $710,000,000 | 700,000 | 1,200,000 | 1,900,000 | 8,400,000 |
| Q4 2021 | $1,587,000,000 | 1,600,000 | 2,600,000 | 4,200,000 | 12,600,000 |
With all the information I've provided, I do not see how any of the above should be controversial.
Then we have 2022 hardware revenue, and this is how I get to 22.2M LTD
| Quarter | Revenue | Series X | Series S | Total XBS | Running LTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2022 | $725,000,000 | 1,100,000 | 600,000 | 1,700,000 | 14,300,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $685,000,000 | 700,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,800,000 | 16,100,000 |
| Q3 2022 | $800,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 18,100,000 |
| Q4 2022 | $1,378,000,000 | 1,200,000 | 2,900,000 | 4,100,000 | 22,200,000 |
It's possible Series X is doing better than what I estimate, this bringing the LTD a little down due to shifting revenue, but that would require Microsoft to be shipping them to regions not the US, UK, or Japan for some reason, which I don't think is the case.
Again, unless someone can unquestionably prove Xbox hardware revenue includes more than just Xbox consoles without conflicting with known data from 2014 and 2015, I say it's fair game to calculate XBS shipments from hardware revenue, and when you do that, you get close to what I put in the tables above.
Anything along the lines of trying to side step the logic such as feelings or sell through or anything that isn't actually backed by evidence regarding Xbox hardware revenue or Series X/S splits is just deflection.
From what I see, XBS is just slightly ahead of XB1 shipments. I've also already gone over in depth why Microsoft didn't say XBS was the fastest selling Xbox in the last earnings call, and it's because they only give that update on the Full FY earnings call in July. The other two times XBS was said to be the fastest selling Xbox were unrelated to the earnings calls.
3.7m on shelves lol
There is no way to that happened.
You did overdid yourself... instead to reajust your "estimate" and accept you were wrong you choose to create that false narrative that there are 3.7 million Series consoles in the store shelves.
BTW everytime we get new evidences you create more excuses... Series is tracing below XB1 and you know that because MS went silent.
Should have waited another three-and-a-bit weeks to post this.
Why do you care about this so much? PS is tracking well ahead and always will. Or do numbers get you off?
You should ask him why he cares about absurd inflating Series numbers…
Works both ways.
Yes, I'm sure all the amount of time and effort he puts into his posts is to trigger you lol.
Please be courteous to each other!
@Welfare put a great deal of effort into his work and you can disagree without being rude!
<3
@Welfare put a great deal of effort into his work and you can disagree without being rude!
<3
People can be wrong when they give....estimates.
Actually prove me wrong on my methodology, it's all public info.
You said yourself Ampere isn't accurate so don't use them at all lol to say what the sell through and shipment gap would be
Do you accept their numbers now because it fits your narrative?
Also enough with the "Microsoft is silent" stuff. I've already proven why that's wrong.
Read the spoiler in my post? Consoles alone already cover all of the hardware revenue. We know what the total Xbox hardware units were each quarter (as well as the ASP to a good degree) and you can easily calculate what the hardware revenue is each quarter from today to back in 2014.
It's impossible for controllers to fit in Microsoft's reported Xbox hardware revenue.
Looking at Q3 2014, trying very hard to fit accessories, you'd have to assume something like 1.5M XB1 and 900K 360, at $430 and $220 ASP, and even then that leaves only ~$50M for controllers, headsets, Xbox 360 hard drives, and Kinect.
That's far too little for all those accessories. That would be at most 1M controllers shipped, and now there's no revenue left for anything else, while also being way too few controllers shipped, when Microsoft shipped 2.4M Xbox's.
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Yeap… it is my bias that don’t believe in these 3.7m units on shelves
BTW in my estimate Xbox is even lower than 18m as end of 2022 based in the typical US/WW ratio for Xbox… well unless it sold like 2 million in NPD December.
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Why did you assume that the Series X went from 5:1 to 0.6:1 within 12 months?
Why does the Series X go from 0.6:1 to ~2:1 within 1 month? What's the basis for this claim?
No, it's on you to prove that Xbox hardware revenue only includes consoles, and while you're at it, please clarify where their Xbox adjacent hardware (Controllers, etc) is reported under:
Even as far as Q2 2015 they did not discriminate miscellaneous Xbox adjacent hardware. Notice that they call it "Xbox platform revenue", not "Xbox hardware revenue".
I swear you guys don't read my posts, you just skim them to find something to attack and continue on your day. I've explained this stuff over and over, but I'm sure the next few posts after this will be more of the usual responses.
First. you yourself can go through every single quarter for the past 9 years in the link. Go find me a single mention of accessories whenever Microsoft talks about hardware. You won't find any mention of controllers like the Elite having an impact on revenue for a quarter, Kinect, anything, but what Microsoft does make note of, and only makes a note of, is whether or not Xbox hardware revenue is impacted by console unit sales going up or down, along with ASP going up or down. The only mentions regarding hardware for 9 years of reporting only refer to consoles. Never accessories.
Secondly, we can use the revenue that's been math'd out with known Xbox hardware unit sales Microsoft reported on in 2014/2015.
I've already done the math on splitting Xbox content and services + hardware revenue. This is literally something anyone can do, and you can check my numbers with every single YOY comparison Microsoft gives out to see they are accurate.
FY 2015 (July 2014 - June 2015)
FY 2016 (July 2015 - June 2016)
FY 2017 (July 2016 - June 2017)
FY 2018 (July 2017 - June 2018)
FY 2019 (July 2018 - June 2019)
FY 2020 (July 2019 - June 2020)
FY 2021 (July 2020 - June 2021)
FY 2022 (July 2021 - June 2022)
FY 2023 (July 2022 - June 2023)
These were combined Xbox 360 and Xbox One shipments but since we have a revenue number to work with and we have a general idea of what each console was selling for, if we can clear those out we will see if there's any money left over for non console revenue. Here's what I mean.
Official reported Xbox hardware shipments 2014 - 2015
Jul-Sep 2014: 2.4M
Oct-Dec 2014: 6.6M
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.6M
Apr-Jun 2015: 1.4M
Do note that for the fiscal year Microsoft reported 12.1M shipments so some or all quarters here are not exactly 2,400,000 for example.
The easiest quarter to work out is Jul-Sep 2014 as that is before the big US price cut to $349 in November. The vast majority of Xbox One's are going to be the $399 Xbox One. Something in the range of 70-80% as even though the $399 XB1 should have been a massive seller killing the Kinect SKU, we have a leak from the June 2014 NPD that shows only 55% of XB1 sales were from the $399 SKU, and the Kinect SKU wasn't even impacted negatively by its introduction. Over the next three months though there would be massive Fall releases like Madden (which had a successful $399 bundle) and Destiny which should've been pushing the lower priced SKU more.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and Xbox hardware generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M that Xbox hardware generated.
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue, even just altering the units by 100K won't have a major impact, like moving XB1 down to 1.7M and 360 up to 700K. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit ~2,400,000 combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.
You'd have to assume something ridiculous like 1.5M XB1 and 900K 360 at exactly $400 and $200 to hit revenue of ~$780M, leaving ~$110M for accessories, but that is too little for that. Microsoft would be shipping $50 Xbox 360 controllers, $60 Xbox One controllers, all the Xbox 360 and Xbox One headsets, standalone Kinect, etc. And again, that's assuming a pretty low XB1 number for Q3, a very high 360 number, and both only shipping the lowest priced SKU, when we know Microsoft shipped higher priced SKU for both.
Microsoft most likely throws controllers into PC accessories. Here, they state what each segment comprises.
• Devices, including Surface, HoloLens, and PC accessories.
• Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content and services, comprising first- and third-party content (including games and in-game content), Xbox Game Pass and other subscriptions, Xbox Cloud Gaming, third-party disc royalties, advertising, and other cloud services.
As I've already shown, the revenue for Xbox hardware each quarter does not allow for Xbox accessories to be included. They have never been mentioned as impacting hardware revenue, and the only mention of what would impact hardware revenue is the console.
Regarding the Series X splits, that's based on what was observed during those quarters. We know Series X was the more produced SKU to start, and as 2021 continued the Series S became more and more available while the X lagged behind. By Q4 2021 the S had clearly been shipped more than the X in all major markets just due to the availability.
Q1 2022 saw a ton of Series X hit the market, Q2 saw decline in availability, and then Q3 went back to being in decent supply.
You can say I'm assuming, and I kind of am as I won't know the exact split, but if you followed consoles availability after March 2020, you'd be able to get a very accurate read of what was available, down to the day. I even had a thread that detailed day to day availability of the PS5 and XBS in the US from day 1 up to November 2022
www.installbaseforum.com
First. you yourself can go through every single quarter for the past 9 years in the link. Go find me a single mention of accessories whenever Microsoft talks about hardware. You won't find any mention of controllers like the Elite having an impact on revenue for a quarter, Kinect, anything, but what Microsoft does make note of, and only makes a note of, is whether or not Xbox hardware revenue is impacted by console unit sales going up or down, along with ASP going up or down. The only mentions regarding hardware for 9 years of reporting only refer to consoles. Never accessories.
Secondly, we can use the revenue that's been math'd out with known Xbox hardware unit sales Microsoft reported on in 2014/2015.
I've already done the math on splitting Xbox content and services + hardware revenue. This is literally something anyone can do, and you can check my numbers with every single YOY comparison Microsoft gives out to see they are accurate.
FY 2015 (July 2014 - June 2015)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $1,990,000,000 | $1,097,000,000 | $893,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $3,529,000,000 | $1,353,000,000 | $2,176,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $1,764,000,000 | $1,225,000,000 | $539,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $1,751,000,000 | $1,260,000,000 | $491,000,000 |
| Total | $9,034,000,000 | $4,935,000,000 | $4,099,000,000 |
FY 2016 (July 2015 - June 2016)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $1,996,000,000 | $1,255,000,000 | $741,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $3,721,000,000 | $1,741,000,000 | $1,980,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $1,828,000,000 | $1,429,000,000 | $399,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $1,599,000,000 | $1,270,000,000 | $329,000,000 |
| Total | $9,144,000,000 | $5,695,000,000 | $3,449,000,000 |
FY 2017 (July 2016 - June 2017)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $1,886,000,000 | $1,336,000,000 | $550,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $3,617,000,000 | $2,063,000,000 | $1,554,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $1,906,000,000 | $1,529,000,000 | $377,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $1,643,000,000 | $1,410,000,000 | $233,000,000 |
| Total | $9,052,000,000 | $6,338,000,000 | $2,714,000,000 |
FY 2018 (July 2017 - June 2018)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $1,896,000,000 | $1,611,000,000 | $285,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $3,920,000,000 | $2,145,000,000 | $1,775,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $2,251,000,000 | $1,896,000,000 | $355,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $2,286,000,000 | $1,923,000,000 | $363,000,000 |
| Total | $10,353,000,000 | $7,575,000,000 | $2,778,000,000 |
FY 2019 (July 2018 - June 2019)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $2,738,000,000 | $2,184,000,000 | $554,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $4,232,000,000 | $2,802,000,000 | $1,430,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $2,363,000,000 | $2,124,000,000 | $239,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $2,053,000,000 | $1,864,000,000 | $189,000,000 |
| Total | $11,386,000,000 | $8,974,000,000 | $2,412,000,000 |
FY 2020 (July 2019 - June 2020)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $2,542,000,000 | $2,176,000,000 | $366,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $3,327,000,000 | $2,507,000,000 | $820,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $2,349,000,000 | $2,157,000,000 | $192,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $3,357,000,000 | $3,075,000,000 | $282,000,000 |
| Total | $11,575,000,000 | $9,915,000,000 | $1,660,000,000 |
FY 2021 (July 2020 - June 2021)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $3,092,000,000 | $2,825,000,000 | $267,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $5,031,000,000 | $3,505,000,000 | $1,526,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $3,533,000,000 | $2,896,000,000 | $637,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $3,714,000,000 | $2,947,000,000 | $767,000,000 |
| Total | $15,370,000,000 | $12,173,000,000 | $3,197,000,000 |
FY 2022 (July 2021 - June 2022)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $3,593,000,000 | $2,883,000,000 | $710,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $5,442,000,000 | $3,855,000,000 | $1,587,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | $3,740,000,000 | $3,015,000,000 | $725,000,000 |
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | $3,455,000,000 | $2,770,000,000 | $685,000,000 |
| Total | $16,230,000,000 | $12,523,000,000 | $3,707,000,000 |
FY 2023 (July 2022 - June 2023)
| Quarter | Gaming | Content and Services | Hardware |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jul-Sep) | $3,610,000,000 | $2,810,000,000 | $800,000,000 |
| Q2 (Oct-Dec) | $4,758,000,000 | $3,380,000,000 | $1,378,000,000 |
| Q3 (Jan-Mar) | |||
| Q4 (Apr-Jun) | |||
| Total |
These were combined Xbox 360 and Xbox One shipments but since we have a revenue number to work with and we have a general idea of what each console was selling for, if we can clear those out we will see if there's any money left over for non console revenue. Here's what I mean.
Official reported Xbox hardware shipments 2014 - 2015
Jul-Sep 2014: 2.4M
Oct-Dec 2014: 6.6M
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.6M
Apr-Jun 2015: 1.4M
Do note that for the fiscal year Microsoft reported 12.1M shipments so some or all quarters here are not exactly 2,400,000 for example.
The easiest quarter to work out is Jul-Sep 2014 as that is before the big US price cut to $349 in November. The vast majority of Xbox One's are going to be the $399 Xbox One. Something in the range of 70-80% as even though the $399 XB1 should have been a massive seller killing the Kinect SKU, we have a leak from the June 2014 NPD that shows only 55% of XB1 sales were from the $399 SKU, and the Kinect SKU wasn't even impacted negatively by its introduction. Over the next three months though there would be massive Fall releases like Madden (which had a successful $399 bundle) and Destiny which should've been pushing the lower priced SKU more.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and Xbox hardware generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M that Xbox hardware generated.
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue, even just altering the units by 100K won't have a major impact, like moving XB1 down to 1.7M and 360 up to 700K. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit ~2,400,000 combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.
You'd have to assume something ridiculous like 1.5M XB1 and 900K 360 at exactly $400 and $200 to hit revenue of ~$780M, leaving ~$110M for accessories, but that is too little for that. Microsoft would be shipping $50 Xbox 360 controllers, $60 Xbox One controllers, all the Xbox 360 and Xbox One headsets, standalone Kinect, etc. And again, that's assuming a pretty low XB1 number for Q3, a very high 360 number, and both only shipping the lowest priced SKU, when we know Microsoft shipped higher priced SKU for both.
Microsoft most likely throws controllers into PC accessories. Here, they state what each segment comprises.
• Devices, including Surface, HoloLens, and PC accessories.
• Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content and services, comprising first- and third-party content (including games and in-game content), Xbox Game Pass and other subscriptions, Xbox Cloud Gaming, third-party disc royalties, advertising, and other cloud services.
As I've already shown, the revenue for Xbox hardware each quarter does not allow for Xbox accessories to be included. They have never been mentioned as impacting hardware revenue, and the only mention of what would impact hardware revenue is the console.
Regarding the Series X splits, that's based on what was observed during those quarters. We know Series X was the more produced SKU to start, and as 2021 continued the Series S became more and more available while the X lagged behind. By Q4 2021 the S had clearly been shipped more than the X in all major markets just due to the availability.
Q1 2022 saw a ton of Series X hit the market, Q2 saw decline in availability, and then Q3 went back to being in decent supply.
You can say I'm assuming, and I kind of am as I won't know the exact split, but if you followed consoles availability after March 2020, you'd be able to get a very accurate read of what was available, down to the day. I even had a thread that detailed day to day availability of the PS5 and XBS in the US from day 1 up to November 2022
PS5/XBS Stock Watch: 2024 and Beyond
Since March 2020 consoles around the world have been in immediate sellout status which has plagued the launch of both new gen systems, the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. Normally there's enough supply to always satisfy current demand so the only way to get a read on console sales is through a general...
www.installbaseforum.com
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Your claim, the burden of proof is on you to show that those figures do not include accessories.
Here's what the document says:
Easy explanation - It's included under "Xbox hardware, which is why it's called hardware and not Consoles"
Your explanation - It's included under "PC accessories" because... reasons, it suits
What was observed where? From where? You still fail to answer my questions:
Your whole post is guess work that was even thoroughly questioned back on installbase. You have ZERO objective data on the console splits, you do not know if accessories are or not counted towards hardware revenue, you provide absolutely wild swings in consumer preference between the Series X and Series S as it suits your narrative, and at the end you reach a number that does not conform with reality.
Meanwhile, Ampere Analysis considers Xbox Series install rate to be 18.5M at the end of 2022 - And somehow this is probably an overestimation based on Nov / Dec performance across multiple markets. So this puts your little stunt at 3.6M Xbox Series consoles sitting in storage or on store shelves, which is frankly absurd (as many pointed out).
I'm sure you've seen it
Console market 2022 review: Hampered by lack of hardware availability
Ampere Analysis data reveals that the 2022 global console gaming market declined by 7.8%* (constant currency -2.1%) to $56.2bn, down from $60.9bn in 2021.
ampereanalysis.com