NPD December 2022 (PS5 #1 Revenue, Switch #1 Units, Xbox @ $200 Forever #3, Leaked LTD up to Nov 2022: 10.6m PS5 / 8.7m Xbox)

Sircaw

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I want to put something here to think.

NPD already showed one of the worst November ever for Xbox... there is no reason December is bad too.
That was already new with NPD leaked data.

Today the new guy at Sony said not with these words that "PlayStation is eating Xbox market share in US".

How much of that is consequence of Gamepass?
What do you guys think?
I think it's just about quality games, Sony is not only leading on that front but smashing it.

It's hard for Microsoft to compete and look at their track record vs Sony since the start of this generation, they just don't have anything on the same level or ballpark that Sony does.

You can list some ok games here and there but they just are not the big blockbuster games like Sony makes.


Game Pass is fine and all but it's a product that essentially offers a lower quality standard of games.
 

Lord Mittens

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I think it's just about quality games, Sony is not only leading on that front but smashing it.

It's hard for Microsoft to compete and look at their track record vs Sony since the start of this generation, they just don't have anything on the same level or ballpark that Sony does.

You can list some ok games here and there but they just are not the big blockbuster games like Sony makes.


Game Pass is fine and all but it's a product that essentially offers a lower quality standard of games.

The fish is right
 

Welfare

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Fair enough. But wouldn't you still say it's kind of strange they haven't had any PR regarding sales even outside of the earnings call? Like you said earlier, they did so last year aside from earnings calls, why did they stop? I know those times coincided with winning NPDs, but IMO they don't have to win NPDs to just even communicate they're ahead of XBO in terms of sales.

That would even potentially be beneficial.
If an interviewer asks Spencer or Nadella if Xbox Series is still ahead and they don't give a definitive answer, then it would be cause to accept that it fell behind.



But that means MS directly lied to regulators, which isn't a good look at all. Because as I remember it, they put that out to indicate their market share at the end of 2021 relative Sony & Nintendo, in order to look more favorable for the ABK acquisition.

They did overshoot Sony's numbers, but I've accepted that they were also including late PS3 sales numbers into the figure. Although I can't image those accounted for a lot, so maybe they were also including PSVR and PS Vita sales, too? I think Vita did ~ 16 million, and PS5 was at what, around 17.3 million by end of 2021. PS4 was around 116 million IIRC so combined that's ~149.3 million between the three, very close to the numbers of Sony Microsoft provided.

And again, there are PS3 sales there too between 2013 and 2021, so I guess those would add in as well. So I don't actually think MS's 63.7 million was BS because if it was, then that'd be them openly lying and I don't think they would want to do that to regulators. So if that number's also right, then I am going to guess they included Series, XBO and late 360 sales. It gets messy if they left out 360 numbers because then it still makes it look like they lied by using certain metrics for one group's numbers but not their own.
It's not lying, we just aren't privy to what Microsoft defines as "install base". The 2021 pie chart they shared also doesn't line up exactly with what sell through might be for PS5 and Switch.

If they're adding in stuff like PS3, VR, and Vita, then the numbers are straight BS anyway as Microsoft is massaging the comparison in such a way that you might as well question if Microsoft isn't also making their numbers lower by factoring out people that own both an S and X or something. If the comparison isn't the actual PS5+4 compared to XBS+1, then it's a meaningless exercise in company "this isn't technically a lie" speak.

Also, I do think when it comes to Xbox it's important to not rely so much on the shipped numbers, because we really don't know what volume of those are getting into customer homes. It's not like the XBO had particularly strong demand in most markets, so it's entirely possible some systems have just been sitting around, getting gradually marked down to cheaper prices to be sold through various retailer stores and sites and that could have been going on for years.
As of 2020 anything Xbox One had in stock was sold through. COVID made everything sell out.

Regarding the rest, I'll just say that even if (probably) ROTW share drops in 2022, that doesn't mean it wasn't and still isn't much higher than before. There is growth there.

Also, to the whole thread, NPD posted this https://www.npd.com/news/blog/2023/2022s-strong-finish-brings-optimism-to-2023/

The relevant part
Dollar sales for PlayStation 5 nearly doubled in Q4 2022 compared to the prior year, and PlayStation 5 finished the quarter as the leading hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales.

I made two posts about this on Install Base here https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...date-full-report-out.1311/page-10#post-133689

But basically what it boils down to is that you'd have to assume some real funky numbers regarding ASP and DE sales in order for PS5 December to not be less than November sales. My 1.4M PS5 estimate had Q4 revenue more than 2x over Q4 2021, and a more realistic number for December is closer to 1.2M.

Again, the logic is in those two posts at the link, so if you disagree I'd like to see why.
 
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If an interviewer asks Spencer or Nadella if Xbox Series is still ahead and they don't give a definitive answer, then it would be cause to accept that it fell behind.

I could agree to that, but it depends on when the interview came. Say they give that interview in June, and give a definitive answer. Well, we would know that by June, launch-aligned, Series is tracking ahead of XBO, but I'm only particularly interested in if it was tracking ahead, at, or behind XBO as of January. A lot of things could happen between now and June to help them make up for a tracking deficit and start tracking ahead.

It's not lying, we just aren't privy to what Microsoft defines as "install base". The 2021 pie chart they shared also doesn't line up exactly with what sell through might be for PS5 and Switch.

If they're adding in stuff like PS3, VR, and Vita, then the numbers are straight BS anyway as Microsoft is massaging the comparison in such a way that you might as well question if Microsoft isn't also making their numbers lower by factoring out people that own both an S and X or something. If the comparison isn't the actual PS5+4 compared to XBS+1, then it's a meaningless exercise in company "this isn't technically a lie" speak.

At the very least, I think it's disingenuous and it makes the numbers being compared, basically worthless. Why even do the comparison if the methodologies for the two sets of numbers aren't like-for-like?

What would make those numbers they gave, particularly questionable to me though, is that they provided those numbers for regulators to look at, to show their market share compared to Sony and Nintendo, to gain favor in getting the ABK acquisition approved. If the numbers are being finessed in order to try getting more sympathy in that argument, I feel it's extremely disingenuous to do and invalidates the entire purpose and whatever information is provided.

As of 2020 anything Xbox One had in stock was sold through. COVID made everything sell out.

Regarding the rest, I'll just say that even if (probably) ROTW share drops in 2022, that doesn't mean it wasn't and still isn't much higher than before. There is growth there.

Right but I'm trying to ask what's a realistic estimate for ROTW growth from XBO to Series? They went from ~ 35% in 360 gen, to just under 25% in XBO gen. I get that Series are in more markets than XBO was and that Series had been tracking ahead of 360 for a good period of time (and likely still is TBH), but do you think ROTW makes up for the deficit for Series in Japan compared to 360 gen?

We also have Sony themselves saying they have seen "huge" (paraphrasing) growth in ROTW markets, including Europe. I'm drawn to conclude this means European markets aside from UK, because at least for 2022 we do have Chris Dring saying the hardware splits between the three systems there was like 60K - 80K, a pretty small margin.

For myself though, I see that margins have increased notably for PS5 in various European countries like Spain, Germany, Italy etc., Asian countries like Japan, China and India, and other places. I think one of the few ROTW markets where the two have been pretty competitive (I'm just going by what others mention) is Brazil, but I don't have much an idea on how big the Brazilian market actually is for gaming revenue when it comes to the Big 3.

Even so, given 2022 ultimately saw MS losing ground to Sony in market share, and that there isn't much a difference in what content was made available in non US/UK markets for Xbox comparatively, I don't see much a reason why they'd of seen massive growth in those markets outside of Sony having disastrous supply. And maybe for a select few of those ROTW markets, they never did improve supply in the back half of 2022 to levels comparable to US, UK, Japan etc. That's totally possible.

But by some 10%/15% swing to push ROTW suddenly to 40% share when it was under 25% share with XBO? A percentage even higher than 360? What's comparable between 360 and Xbox Series this gen that would appeal to ROTW markets at even that level, let alone 5% higher? Series S, I get it, it's cheap, but 360 was cheap while also being performant with PS3. Series S doesn't have that specific benefit. Series S has Game Pass, but the vast majority of the 2022 content I don't think would have done miracles for ROTW when it did nothing of the sort for the US, and that content being the same more or less across all markets. Not to mention, Sony still have PS+, they have the new tiers, they even still have PS4s in a lot of these markets and the platform itself still officially being supported. So even that nullifies a lot of Series S's supposed pricing & value advantages.

Also, to the whole thread, NPD posted this https://www.npd.com/news/blog/2023/2022s-strong-finish-brings-optimism-to-2023/

The relevant part


I made two posts about this on Install Base here https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...date-full-report-out.1311/page-10#post-133689

But basically what it boils down to is that you'd have to assume some real funky numbers regarding ASP and DE sales in order for PS5 December to not be less than November sales. My 1.4M PS5 estimate had Q4 revenue more than 2x over Q4 2021, and a more realistic number for December is closer to 1.2M.

Again, the logic is in those two posts at the link, so if you disagree I'd like to see why.

No disagreement here TBH; if it's 1.2 million it's 1.2 million. Maybe they deprioritized the US just a tad for December to make sure other parts of the world got sufficient PS5 supply, like Japan for example. It is what it is 🤷‍♂️.
 

Heisenberg007

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First time seeing those numbers.

JESUS
200.gif
 
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ethomaz

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If an interviewer asks Spencer or Nadella if Xbox Series is still ahead and they don't give a definitive answer, then it would be cause to accept that it fell behind.
That is some way to get blind to what is happening in the market.
Spencer or Nadella will never say Series is behind Xbox One just like they stopped to comment the moment they did not sold more in NPD this year.

So your accept is conditioned to something that won’t happen.

Te moment MS stop to say it is ahead it fall behind.
 

Welfare

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That is some way to get blind to what is happening in the market.
Spencer or Nadella will never say Series is behind Xbox One just like they stopped to comment the moment they did not sold more in NPD this year.

So your accept is conditioned to something that won’t happen.

Te moment MS stop to say it is ahead it fall behind.
So would you then argue XBS fell behind in Q1 2022 simply because Spencer said in an interview that they were ahead at the end of 2021 and then it wasn't brought up again until July?

No you wouldn't, or no reasonable person would.

It's also not being blind to the market, you have some presupposition that XBS must have fallen behind. I see no compelling reason why XBS has to have fallen behind yet and I've already shown that outside of Microsoft reporting the fact in their final FY report, the other two instances were special. One was an interview and the other a yearly report.

The only way to concretely prove something has changed is if an interviewer asked Spencer if XBS is still the fastest selling Xbox and he deflects.
 
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Heisenberg007

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So would you then argue XBS fell behind in Q1 2022 simply because Spencer said in an interview that they were ahead at the end of 2021 and then it wasn't brought up again until July?

No you wouldn't, or no reasonable person would.

It's also not being blind to the market, you have some presupposition that XBS must have fallen behind. I see no compelling reason why XBS has to have fallen behind yet and I've already shown that outside of Microsoft reporting the fact in their final FY report, the other two instances were special. One was an interview and the other a yearly report.

The only way to concretely prove something has changed is if an interviewer asked Spencer if XBS is still the fastest selling Xbox and he deflects.
Considering they haven't said anything about it during these latest financial reports, I think it's safe to assume that they have fallen behind.

Besides, we actually have sufficient data now to believe that.
  • PS4 - Xbox One in the US had a sales split ratio of 53:47 last gen.
  • PS5 is tracking behind PS4 now. So PS5 has sold less in the US.
  • Despite that, PS5 has gained market share in the US and the sales split is now 55:45.
  • That means XBS is tracking behind Xbox One. And that is the strongest market for Xbox.
  • In the UK, XBS hasn't hit 2M even after 116 weeks. Xbox One hit 2M in the UK after 104 weeks. So XBS is tracking behind Xbox One in UK as well.
US and UK are the two strongest markets. There is no evidence that Xbox has gained grounds in the rest of the world. Even if it did in some regions (hypothetically), their userbase was so small in the ROTW last gen, that it wouldn't make any difference in WW numbers.
 

DForce

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I want to put something here to think.

NPD already showed one of the worst November ever for Xbox... there is no reason December is bad too.
That was already new with NPD leaked data.

Today the new guy at Sony said not with these words that "PlayStation is eating Xbox market share in US".

How much of that is consequence of Gamepass?
What do you guys think?

Their lineup has been very lackluster over the past 5 years and now we're seeing major impacts on console sales early in the generation.

This is the "I told you so" moment for Xbox fans. They didn't want to accept the fact that Xbox was winning quarters due to supply shortages, and they didn't want to accept how important exclusives are to the platform.

Gamers need a reason to choose your platform.

Horizon Forbidden West, God of War, Spider-Man Miles Morales, Gran Turismo 7, Ghost of Tsushima Director's Cut vs Forza Horizon 5, Halo Infinite
Now the HBO show The Last of Us is out and the sales of the game are increasing. A lot of gamers know FF16, FF7:Rebirth,
Wolverine, and Spider-Man 2 are due out within the near future. They're building a strong lineup with more games in near sight.

If this Acivistion deal falls through then it's only going to hurt them even more.
 

Welfare

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Considering they haven't said anything about it during these latest financial reports, I think it's safe to assume that they have fallen behind.

Besides, we actually have sufficient data now to believe that.
  • PS4 - Xbox One in the US had a sales split ratio of 53:47 last gen.
  • PS5 is tracking behind PS4 now. So PS5 has sold less in the US.
  • Despite that, PS5 has gained market share in the US and the sales split is now 55:45.
  • That means XBS is tracking behind Xbox One. And that is the strongest market for Xbox.
  • In the UK, XBS hasn't hit 2M even after 116 weeks. Xbox One hit 2M in the UK after 104 weeks. So XBS is tracking behind Xbox One in UK as well.
US and UK are the two strongest markets. There is no evidence that Xbox has gained grounds in the rest of the world. Even if it did in some regions (hypothetically), their userbase was so small in the ROTW last gen, that it wouldn't make any difference in WW numbers.
You have completely ignored everything I've ever written in this thread.

When it comes to financial reports, Microsoft only mentions XBS being the fastest selling in the FYQ4 report.

In 2021, XBS was 1.3M behind XB1 in the US+UK. Worldwide XBS was ahead of XB1 at the same time, meaning ROTW XBS was outpacing ROTW XB1 by >1.3M.

There's no evidence to say ROTW 2022 declined from 2021. We know US, Japan, and Europe without UK and Germany are up. Europe could be considered flat if you factor in the UK decline and assume Germany was flat.

Let's just use Ampere sell through for simplicity.

Ampere 2020: 2.8M
US+UK: 1.8M
ROTW would then be 1M

Ampere 2021: 7.7M
US+UK: 4.56M
ROTW would then be 3.14M

In the Install Base link I posted above I gave an updated December NPD estimate, and US+UK should be ~5.3M for 2022. Assuming a flat result for ROTW at 3.1M would mean 8.4M in 2022, bringing LTD to 18.9M.

Sell through wise, that's right at the edge of matching XB1 which was estimated to be ~19M after 2 years. A slight increase for ROTW would then bring XBS just over 19M.

There's then just enough wiggle room for XBS shipments to still be ahead of XB1.

I think at worst, sell through is tied with XB1, shipments slightly ahead.
 
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ethomaz

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You have completely ignored everything I've ever written in this thread.

When it comes to financial reports, Microsoft only mentions XBS being the fastest selling in the FYQ4 report.

In 2021, XBS was 1.3M behind XB1 in the US+UK. Worldwide XBS was ahead of XB1 at the same time, meaning ROTW XBS was outpacing ROTW XB1 by >1.3M.

There's no evidence to say ROTW 2022 declined from 2021. We know US, Japan, and Europe without UK and Germany are up. Europe could be considered flat if you factor in the UK decline and assume Germany was flat.

Let's just use Ampere sell through for simplicity.

Ampere 2020: 2.8M
US+UK: 1.8M
ROTW would then be 1M

Ampere 2021: 7.7M
US+UK: 4.56M
ROTW would then be 3.14M

In the Install Base link I posted above I gave an updated December NPD estimate, and US+UK should be ~5.3M for 2022. Assuming a flat result for ROTW at 3.1M would mean 8.4M in 2022, bringing LTD to 18.9M.

Sell through wise, that's right at the edge of matching XB1 which was estimated to be ~19M after 2 years. A slight increase for ROTW would then bring XBS just over 19M.

There's then just enough wiggle room for XBS shipments to still be ahead of XB1.

I think at worst, sell through is tied with XB1, shipments slightly ahead.
First you mix so much thing that it is really hard to keep track… some questions:

Your claim of Xbox Series being ahead Xbox One is based in shipment or sold do consumers? MS claim is about shipment or sold to consumers?

These 1.3m ahead are shipment or sold to consumers?
 
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Welfare

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there is no way XBS is ahead of XBone if PS5 is behind PS4
PS5 fell behind PS4 after 3 quarters and has stayed that way ever since and XBS was ahead of XB1 after 3 quarters and up until at least Q3 2022. What does PS5 have to do Xbox in this case?
First you mix so much thing that it is really hard to keep track… some questions:

Your claim of Xbox Series being ahead Xbox One is based in shipment or sold do consumers? MS claim is about shipment or sold to consumers?

These 1.3m ahead are shipment or sold to consumers?
Back in July 2021 when Microsoft first announced XBS was the fastest selling Xbox, it was in their earnings call. The very first assumption is that this is referring to shipments. Following that, we also know every XBS was being sold through thanks to COVID demand. Therefore, it should be the fastest in both sold through and shipments.

When Phil Spencer said in a January 2022 interview that XBS was still the fastest selling Xbox, the safest assumption is shipped. You can also infer sell through given that Series S was only just getting settled in demand and Series X was still sold out, while XB1 in 2014 had millions unsold. Sold through estimates for XB1 in 2014 point to it doing as low as 9.5M to as high as 11M. Ampere had XBS at 10.5M for 2021, so you can say it's highly likely XBS sold through was also ahead of XB1.

So to answer question 1, I'm assuming it's ahead in both. I think you already know I estimate XBS shipments at ~22.5M, slightly ahead of my estimated ~22.1M for XB1. For sold through, I'd argue that at worst, XBS is tied with XB1 at ~19M.

For question 2, Microsoft is most likely only meaning shipments but can refer to both as it has yet to be shown that XBS is ahead in one stat but not the other.

The ROTW >1.3M ahead is sold through because of the above. There's no reason to assume that as of 2021 XBS would be ahead of XB1 in shipments yet somehow behind it in sold through. At the very least, because XBS US+UK were 1.3M behind XB1, and Spencer said XBS was above XB1, and we know the sold through to shipments gap would be smaller for XBS than XB1 because of real world market conditions, the only correct takeaway is that ROTW more than made up for the decline in the US+UK in both shipments and sold through.

TL;DR Once Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling in July 2021 up until now, you can say this was true for both sold through and shipments up until the end of 2022, where it's a lot closer to XB1 to the point where it might only be slightly ahead or right with it.
 
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ethomaz

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PS5 fell behind PS4 after 3 quarters and has stayed that way ever since and XBS was ahead of XB1 after 3 quarters and up until at least Q3 2022. What does PS5 have to do Xbox in this case?

Back in July 2021 when Microsoft first announced XBS was the fastest selling Xbox, it was in their earnings call. The very first assumption is that this is referring to shipments. Following that, we also know every XBS was being sold through thanks to COVID demand. Therefore, it should be the fastest in both sold through and shipments.

When Phil Spencer said in a January 2022 interview that XBS was still the fastest selling Xbox, the safest assumption is shipped. You can also infer sell through given that Series S was only just getting settled in demand and Series X was still sold out, while XB1 in 2014 had millions unsold. Sold through estimates for XB1 in 2014 point to it doing as low as 9.5M to as high as 11M. Ampere had XBS at 10.5M for 2021, so you can say it's highly likely XBS sold through was also ahead of XB1.

So to answer question 1, I'm assuming it's ahead in both. I think you already know I estimate XBS shipments at ~22.5M, slightly ahead of my estimated ~22.1M for XB1. For sold through, I'd argue that at worst, XBS is tied with XB1 at ~19M.

For question 2, Microsoft is most likely only meaning shipments but can refer to both as it has yet to be shown that XBS is ahead in one stat but not the other.

The ROTW >1.3M ahead is sold through because of the above. There's no reason to assume that as of 2021 XBS would be ahead of XB1 in shipments yet somehow behind it in sold through. At the very least, because XBS US+UK were 1.3M behind XB1, and Spencer said XBS was above XB1, and we know the sold through to shipments gap would be smaller for XBS than XB1 because of real world market conditions, the only correct takeaway is that ROTW more than made up for the decline in the US+UK in both shipments and sold through.

TL;DR Once Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling in July 2021 up until now, you can say this was true for both sold through and shipments up until the end of 2022, where it's a lot closer to XB1 to the point where it might only be slightly ahead or right with it.
Thanks for the reply.

I just think you are missing a point… when you say 2021 it is compared to 2014 XB1… 2014 up to September RotW outside UK + US was only 11 countries… I mean XB1 was in only 13 countries until September.

Of course even being behind in US + UK Series should be ahead WW because Series had a Global launch in 2020.

That is the situation of Xbox One until middle 2015 when it was still launching in Tier 2 countries.

That changes with the first holidays where Xbox One was in 50+ countries that is Q4 2015… compared with Q4 2022 of Series.

And the situation for 2016 vs 2023 is trick because now Series is being compared with a Global Xbox One.

There is no evidence that Series is ahead Xbox One anymore… what you give is only evidence of past that we knew already and it was a by product of Xbox One segmented launch.
 

Bodycount611

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PS5 fell behind PS4 after 3 quarters and has stayed that way ever since and XBS was ahead of XB1 after 3 quarters and up until at least Q3 2022. What does PS5 have to do Xbox in this case?

Back in July 2021 when Microsoft first announced XBS was the fastest selling Xbox, it was in their earnings call. The very first assumption is that this is referring to shipments. Following that, we also know every XBS was being sold through thanks to COVID demand. Therefore, it should be the fastest in both sold through and shipments.

When Phil Spencer said in a January 2022 interview that XBS was still the fastest selling Xbox, the safest assumption is shipped. You can also infer sell through given that Series S was only just getting settled in demand and Series X was still sold out, while XB1 in 2014 had millions unsold. Sold through estimates for XB1 in 2014 point to it doing as low as 9.5M to as high as 11M. Ampere had XBS at 10.5M for 2021, so you can say it's highly likely XBS sold through was also ahead of XB1.

So to answer question 1, I'm assuming it's ahead in both. I think you already know I estimate XBS shipments at ~22.5M, slightly ahead of my estimated ~22.1M for XB1. For sold through, I'd argue that at worst, XBS is tied with XB1 at ~19M.

For question 2, Microsoft is most likely only meaning shipments but can refer to both as it has yet to be shown that XBS is ahead in one stat but not the other.

The ROTW >1.3M ahead is sold through because of the above. There's no reason to assume that as of 2021 XBS would be ahead of XB1 in shipments yet somehow behind it in sold through. At the very least, because XBS US+UK were 1.3M behind XB1, and Spencer said XBS was above XB1, and we know the sold through to shipments gap would be smaller for XBS than XB1 because of real world market conditions, the only correct takeaway is that ROTW more than made up for the decline in the US+UK in both shipments and sold through.

TL;DR Once Microsoft said XBS was the fastest selling in July 2021 up until now, you can say this was true for both sold through and shipments up until the end of 2022, where it's a lot closer to XB1 to the point where it might only be slightly ahead or right with it.
we have the leaked NPD for Q4, and it was an awful Q4 for xbox indeed. Safe to say XBS is lagging behind XBone right now. Especially coming off a disastrous and barren 2022 lineup.
 

Darth Vader

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ck in July 2021 when Microsoft first announced XBS was the fastest selling Xbox, it was in their earnings call. The very first assumption is that this is referring to shipments. Following that, we also know every XBS was being sold through thanks to COVID demand. Therefore, it should be the fastest in both sold through and shipments.

Even during the peak of the pandemic the series S was easily obtainable in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and many other countries. The Series X was regularly in stock, but would be out of stock more frequently.

So no, not every console was sold, at least in a timely fashion
 

Gediminas

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Even during the peak of the pandemic the series S was easily obtainable in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and many other countries. The Series X was regularly in stock, but would be out of stock more frequently.

So no, not every console was sold, at least in a timely fashion
you can add Norway too. SX also was available here most of the time.

last year we had no stock of PS5, even if we got, it would sell in 0 sec, because everyone stayed in line for the pick up.

they even sold more xbox in 2022 than PS5 here, just shows how dry it was for PS fans.