19.4K now on Steam; at this rate it should probably tap out between 25K-30K peak realistic.
FWIW, Persona 5 peaked at 35K, but that was a Day 1 PC release. And there's a small chance XVI could match or beat that game's peak CCU over the weekend.
I'm not saying any of this to imply the game isn't a "bomb"; CCUs don't tell us everything about sales metrics for example, and for all we know total sales could be on the lower side. But, with the numbers as they currently are, the game's probably going to be at least a modest success on Steam, probably 1 million copies between now and next year.
Still nothing compared to what the game sold on PS5, btw. And that's with pre-launch sabotage by Square-Enix themselves i.e already talking about the PC version publicly before even releasing the PS5 one (including fine print in the TV adverts; same thing happened with Rebirth BTW).
In my experience, as a watcher of Steam, JRPGs do about 10-25% of the launch sales even for Day 1 titles.
There's a few exceptions of course, like Granblue Fantasy Relink(but that's because 50% of reviews come from China.)
Looking at SteamDB estimates, and thinking of a "realistic" number for FF7RIntegrade's copies sold when it was an EGS exclusive, it seems that FF(FFXVI included, although that's TBD)titles are looking at being on the low end of the scale at 10%~
Now, like I said, some of that can be attributed to delayed launches/EGS deals/questionable quality of PC ports.
But even at a 20%+~ of launch/LTDs, PC is just a supplemental help.
It is not the "magic pill" to make FF sells many more copies.
Increasingly, it looks like if Square-Enix wants to sell a lot more copies for FF(mainline and/or spin-off) they need to release their titles on the Nintendo platform Day 1, or at least in a timely manner. But considering the trajectory of the FF franchise, in terms of scope/fidelity, it seems that without a drastic change, it's not looking very feasible.
I know folks here at not big fan of downsizing the scope of ambitions, at least how it manifest itself for FF. Likewise for the current crop of Producers/Directors in charge I think. A bit stuck between a rock and a hard place, it seems like.
I don't think we're going to see FFXVII in a long time. I imagine we won't know what kind of internal changes will be taking place as far as the direction for the franchise either. It is a curious time for sure over at S-E.
I imagine there's a lot of changes going on right now.
