@Welfare XSX only sold 10-11 mil units which is wii u like bad.
Less than that, actually. I'll keep bringing up my own estimate for EOY 2022 for Xbox Series: ~ 17.8 million top end. Did calculate a specific figure and range with reasons for the number but it's in way older posts I don't have the time ATM to go search.
Even though they aren't very credible (IMO), VGChartz did give sales estimates for the three systems. Currently they have Xbox Series at 1.89 million for the year up to end of April. It's tracking at OG Xbox levels and if it keeps this pace, will only sell 5.67 million for the entire year. For reference, OG Xbox's 2003 saw it sell 5.7 million units.
So yeah, Starfield really needs to be a big hit because MS need some real momentum to start shifting hardware numbers upwards again. Even so, Starfield also being on PC Day 1 and being in Game Pass (and Game Pass being on pretty much everything outside of kitchen appliances) will nullify a good chunk of the impact it otherwise would have had in generating bigger hardware sales.
And before people go "but MS doesn't need consoles!", no they clearly still do. That's where the bulk of their gaming revenue is coming from, between hardware, software and peripheral sales, that's even amid declining software sales BTW. And Game Pass numbers both in subscribers and revenue aren't anywhere near enough to offset Xbox hardware decline that we're seeing.
IMO, Xbox could be on track for the end of this year to reach sales of under 24 million, but at least slightly above 23 million. Moving under 24 million units sold-through within 3 years on the market is just extremely bad. Granted they may see a boost in the holiday season, but how much of that they get is going to rest a lot on Starfield. MS can't count on the ABK acquisition giving them a boost because at the very least it won't get approved this year. They have no other big 1P titles besides Forza, which isn't a system seller. They have no big 3P exclusives, and very little in way of big 3P marketing deals. Maybe they get a marketing deal for Persona 3 Remake, but I don't think it'll have too big an impact on hardware sales until closer to the game's release and it could release late this year or slip into 2024.
So let's say normally for November & December MS sees a 50% hardware boost. Okay, so (1.89 million / 4 = 472.5K * 2 = 945K * 1.5 =) 1.417 million between those two months, and that four-month period in total they do 2.36 million. Let's say Starfield is a big hit and the showcase
TRULY delivers, maybe it gives them a max 20% boost in the last 3rd of the year, and a 15% boost for July and August. Now that's 2.835 million (Sept-Dec), and 1.086 million (Jul-Aug). The whole year is still just 6.756 million; that's slightly more than OG Xbox's 2004 (~ 6.2 million), but not by much, and that's both OG Xbox and Xbox Series's respective 3rd years on the market. Even if you take Ampere's 20.5 million EOY 2022 estimate (I personally think it was at best 17.8 million), it only brings Xbox's lifetime total to 27.256 million. That's slightly ahead of XBO, so they'd be tracking ahead of at least that again, but still tracking behind 360 (28 million by EOY 2008, its 3rd year).
However, I personally think that number would be closer to 24.556 million EOY 2023, so IMO even with a best-case turnaround in Xbox Series sales for the rest of the year, they still end up tracking behind both XBO and especially 360. But at least it would be an improvement, and could start a longer trend of further improving hardware sales into 2024 but only if they keep delivering on the big 1P AAA games, do stronger marketing, more 3P marketing deals and better brand optics & messaging.
Unfortunately for them since there's a good chance they continue to pursue & focus on the ABK acquisition going into the rest of this year and 2024, they'll be "distracted" and none of this has any real chance of coming to fruition.
EDIT: As for XSX ratio, well it's commonly said it's a 60:40 split in favor of the S, right? Well even with Ampere's numbers and the current VGChartz numbers XSX would probably at most be around 8.9 million, but I suspect it's less than that.
Even with a best-case scenario of sales uptick for the rest of the year, lifetime Series X would be between 9.8 million - 10.9 million; depends on if you take my 17.8 million EOY 2022 XBS number at face-value or take Ampere's 20.5 million. Which, again, I personally doubt, partly because that would have placed Xbox Series ahead of XBO and I think an official statement of that would've been mentioned around the time of their investors call in January to soften bad hardware sales news.
