MS has ALWAYS reported sell-in, not sell-through numbers, as they require full payment on delivery for their hardware and software. They don't give a fuck where it goes from there, they got paid upfront.Microsoft playing shenanigans with the Series numbers like when they changed the definition of 'sold' at the end of the 360 generation.
I want to see the split between S and X shipped, sold through and sold. While I am open to correction, I don't believe the Series S numbers are organic.
MS has ALWAYS reported sell-in, not sell-through numbers, as they require full payment on delivery for their hardware and software. They don't give a fuck where it goes from there, they got paid upfront.
As for the S/X split, the wafer layout is 6 Series S APUs to 2 Series X APUs, and even allowing for binning, I don't think the ratio is going to be better than 3:1 S to X ratio.
The fact they'd have to do a wafer redesign to make more Series X without piling up tons of Series S chips makes it pretty unlikely we will see a change with sales for the S being in the shitter, as evidenced by the failed desperation fire sales prior to christmas.
Even when they were on top, they reported sell-in. In peak times, sell-in==sell-through.I thought they reported sell-through numbers when the 360 was outselling the PS3 by a large margin (2:1?) and then swapped back to sell-in when the PS3 started to catch up?
The man in charge of manufacturing the Series needs slapping with a trout into a canal. How anyone could think the idea of tying two consoles together, where the ratios are so off, in a market they are guessing about, would be a good idea is beyond belief. The resources that the Xbox division waste is staggering. No wonder they take such a $ loss on every console.
I work in/around/on/between manufacturing and the idea of that is madness. I'm not saying what you have said is madness, I believe it, but MS doing it is madness. The feasibility study for that idea, in this market, with products as unknown as consoles, should have been laughed out of the room. The idea of making tiers of affordability for a scalable product makes sense when that product is a knife or power tool, but to do it for electronics is playing with fire, to do it with consoles where you have one shot every 5-7 years is outright insanity.The whole idea with the shared wafer is cost-cutting, as producing one wafer is cheaper than having to pay the fees associated with running two wafer lines. And also, as I said, it has become clear that they never WANTED to sell many Series X consoles, it was a loss-leader and a halo product, but not what they envisioned as the future of Xbox. They basically skipped the wait for a revision and put the mid-ten refresh out day one to claim the power throne, but wanted to move cheap and subsidized Series S to reduce losses without the PR hit of only putting out a revised One X and telling everyone that that is the new Xbox.
Launch aligned, PS3 outperformed 360 since the start. The thing is that PS3 was released way later than 360, so 360 started with an extra head start and PS3 had to slowly close the difference.I thought they reported sell-through numbers when the 360 was outselling the PS3 by a large margin (2:1?) and then swapped back to sell-in when the PS3 started to catch up?
The PS3 was a disaster of a console, right up until around 2010 when Microsoft went 'wubble' and Sony got their act together. You would have thought they would have learned with the CDI what happens when you try and make an all-in-one device...Then Microsoft went and copied themLaunch aligned, PS3 outperformed 360 since the start. The thing is that PS3 was released way later than 360, so 360 started with an extra head start and PS3 had to slowly close the difference.
So, enough about Xbox, let's talk Switch....
It's trending down, finally, but honestly not by much. I am shocked that they haven't tapped the market out by now but it's clear that they haven't. If necessary there's probably two years of "acceptable" unit sales, followed by a dud year, left. And that's all with the Switch never having had a price drop, unless you count bundling or the lack of an inflation-driven price increase. I still don't get how Nintendo is getting comparable numbers of people to buy in every year but here we are.
Though, personally, I think Switch 2 hits in 2024 and original Switch sales decrease drastically after that, even if it still keeps getting games for a few years.
Hopefully not.The PS3 was a disaster of a console, right up until around 2010 when Microsoft went 'wubble' and Sony got their act together. You would have thought they would have learned with the CDI what happens when you try and make an all-in-one device...Then Microsoft went and copied them
Switch is hitting market saturation. Switch 2 will bomb and be a disaster.
The thing to keep in mind is that MS has a bad habit, especially with Xbox, of handling hardware the same way they handle software.I work in/around/on/between manufacturing and the idea of that is madness. I'm not saying what you have said is madness, I believe it, but MS doing it is madness. The feasibility study for that idea, in this market, with products as unknown as consoles, should have been laughed out of the room. The idea of making tiers of affordability for a scalable product makes sense when that product is a knife or power tool, but to do it for electronics is playing with fire, to do it with consoles where you have one shot every 5-7 years is outright insanity.
Surely the cost of making 2 consoles, where one is a red-headed step-child - let alone the cannibalisation of your own target customer, just doesn't add up. Making one console, with one manufacturing line and selling that console at a loss makes more sense commercially and financially than taking a loss on two consoles + the extra manufacturing costs. Microsoft could have made a Series X, without a disc drive, shipped with 12 months of free gamepass (knowing the launch window would be baron) and taken a hit on those consoles and still saved money.
I feel like taking a plane to Redmond and slapping some sense into people. I hope they had succumb to industrial espionage when the kick-off meetings for the Series' consoles happened.
That question probably haunts Phil Spencer's dreams every night.Now what?
You don't hit market saturation right after only declining 11 percent. They have at least one more year of "good" sales, as is and then can start price-cutting if necessary.Switch is hitting market saturation. Switch 2 will bomb and be a disaster.