GTA6: Beginning Of The Next Gaming Crash?

[Boswollox]

GTA 6 is releasing to a potential 80 million customers, not 160 million like GTA 5.

Every player who migrates from GTA5 is at best, like for like revenue wise and at worst a net loss.

Asking GTA5 players to start from scratch is a big ask, though going by FIFA and sports ball games, isn't impossible.

It will be hyped to death by media as the second coming of Jesus, Allah and Buddha combined but will be mildly received by fans.

The humour will piss off one of two camps; either it will be too edgy for the 'woke' crowd, or not edgy enough for the non 'woke' crowd. Or they could totally fuck it up and try and play is safe and bore both camps.

Graphics are reaching, or have reached, diminishing returns so now only does GTA 6 need to look noticeably better than 5, it needs to do so while being more alive, more interesting and more aesthetically unique.

It may start strong, but the legs will fall out in no time. We're looking at a Cyberpunk situation here.

Edit: the budget for this game is much, much higher than GTA5 and so is the marketing budget. GTA6 needs to sell more, to fewer players, while offering less than GTA5 did relatively. R* shareholders won't accept anything but almost impossible levels of success. Run the math on cost Vs returns of GTA5 and then what GTA6 has to do to beat that, in a shorter time scale.

 

[CrackmanNL]

There are a few generations that have grown up with GTA5 so this will be their first time for a sequel. And that game is at its core a 7th gen title so the improvements and leaps to a 9th one will be very substantial. We've seen what Rockstar did with RDR1 vs RDR2 with one gen between them.

Then you got folks like me who were excited for an ''HD'' GTA going to Vice City eventually since 4 came out and waited 17 years...
Plus this time around it's the social media age, so the game will completely take over mindshare. It's not only in gaming circles it's the masses. We've seen the response on the trailer.

The thing is as well there is literally no competition for them in the space. None of the competitors back in the day that had a chance have stayed relevant and evolved alongside it over the years. Titles like True Crime & Sleeping Dogs, the one that focused on the goofy side and had the opportunity this gen was Saints Row and those devs have absolutely bombed the series (forever).

I think the only title Rockstar devs/execs kept their eyes out/felt pressured was Cyberpunk and when that launched they probably laughed, we sweated for nothing. I have 0 worries in the technical aspect that's the only way the title can bomb/dissapoint but doubt that after them seeing CD Project and Rockstar being known for their polish.

 

[peter42O]

Dunno what makes you think GTA6 will be delayed into 2026. Considering how much platform holders, particularly Sony, have riding on the game, they will probably be willing to extend special technical support to R* and staff to complete content for the game if it means locking in a 2025 release. Investors and analysts are also expecting a late 2025 release; anything after that would probably be a noticeable dent in financials across the board.

The thing is, given when R* showed off the trailer they probably were aiming for 2024 but already delayed it into 2025. So I kinda doubt it gets delayed yet again. Borderlands 4 is different enough from GTA6 where it likely wouldn't be too affected by the latter as long as it's launched in a 3-month window outside of GTA's launch. So that would give two late dates of either July/August 2025 or January/February 2026.

Mafia? That's probably the one R* and T2 release first out of the three, likely early 2025. Just to give it room to breath before GTA6 late in the year.

Main reason is Rockstar's history. Pretty certain that every game they've released has had at least one delay after announcing the release date. Second reason is if Mafia The Old Country is a Fall 2025 release, there's no reason to release GTA VI close to it because it's going to kill it. After that, combined with Borderlands 4 which will be pretty big and their sports games, they can delay GTA VI to Spring 2026 if needed. I would be very surprised if Mafia is an early 2025 release.

I don't think that the game would need more time due to any technical issues, I just think that it would be Rockstar doing what they always do - making sure the game is as close to perfection for them as it can be and that takes time.

Not concerned about investors because they know they'll get their money either way and analysts are wrong more times than they're right. At the end of the day, if Rockstar wants/needs more time, they will get more time and Rockstar always wants/needs more time.

Borderlands 4 is different enough but you don't want to risk it if you're Take Two Interactive as they could have two massive fiscal years in 2026 and 2027. No reason to force the issue or take a chance GTA VI hurts the game or especially Mafia because while Borderlands 4 is different enough, Mafia isn't and if GTA VI is close, it's going to slaughter it and as a huge fan of the Mafia trilogy, I want the game to do very well. If GTA VI is close to it, I already know what will happen. lol

 

[MiyazakiLovesKojima]

Armchair Analysis: The Thread