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Make your next gaming prediction. Iconera has been on a role with predicting the market & gaming! 🔥
- Thread starter Gamernyc78
- Start date
It was so easy to get everything right by just always betting against Xbox.
I don't have that many hot takes right now that I'm confident about:
- Nobody cares about cloud gaming.
- MS will give up on Gamepass (pretty much already happening)
- Valve will try to make SteamOS non-portable consoles.
- The gap between the few high quality games and mid games will keep increasing dramatically.
I don't have that many hot takes right now that I'm confident about:
- Nobody cares about cloud gaming.
- MS will give up on Gamepass (pretty much already happening)
- Valve will try to make SteamOS non-portable consoles.
- The gap between the few high quality games and mid games will keep increasing dramatically.
GTA is launching on two consoles; Xbox and playstation. Unlike GTA5 which launched in 2013 when well over 100 million consoles were sold. Now we have 80 million, with the lowest attach rate of those consoles. That's the hardware side.GTA VI a flop, what are you saying.
Disney entering the console space with which studios? Lmao
On the software side, GTA5 had edgy humour, with the game starting development in 2008 and launching 2014, way before the internet went mental with GG, Trump and COVID. R* have lost their founders, have censored and edited GTA5 at every update.
The long march through the institutions of gaming have left no studio unaffected and, the people who currently work at R* are insane, and I say this as someone with personal experience of the workers there.
GTA6 launch trailer had twerking black women on cars with tiktok style overlay, brushed away as "just satire". R* tried releasing it cross gen but were caught in the backlash. It has been nearly ten years in production and aside a leak, we have seen nothing of the game that should have launched by now.
Even worse is R* ditching single player content and DLC In favour of GTA Online. Now they want their userbase to migrate to a generation that, according to the hardware manufacturers own numbers, haven't adopted the new hardware as quick as anticipated.
It doesn't spell a rosy picture.
Will GTA6 sell big numbers on day one? Of course it will. So did cyberpunk. The flop will be after the launch, when MAU drop, when the players become bored and when the majority of GTA fans stick with the online portion that they've been corralled into - one where they have built up years worth of digital content, sometimes even paid for digital content, and are expected to ditch that in favour of paying $100+ just to start again.
When you look at the hardware and software situation, it isn't possible for GTA6 to replicate the short-mid term success of GTA5.
_______________
As for Disney, Bob Igor launched Disney plus because he couldn't understand why Disney were paying netflix to host Disney content, so he made their own service. With gaming being pushed into storefront wars, one company is going to launch their storefront to compete with the others.
My money is on Disney to do it, as they have the IPs, seems as Google and Amazon have tried, and failed.
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I think all of those ps6 games will be ps5 cross gen as well. I think from softs ps5 game is probably closer than people think. Like 2025/26.
The PS5 will outsell the PS4
Sony will release a PC Storefront
Sony will buy FromSoftware/Kadokawa
Helldivers 2 will be Sony's most successful game of all time (not including future releases)
Sony will create a handheld PlayStation
TLOU P1 and P2 will chart on both the Steam and PlayStation Stores in 2025
Halo will appear on PlayStation before the end of the generation
The Switch 2 will struggle to sell as well as the Switch similar to how the 3DS struggled to sell as well as the DS
Sony will release a PC Storefront
Sony will buy FromSoftware/Kadokawa
Helldivers 2 will be Sony's most successful game of all time (not including future releases)
Sony will create a handheld PlayStation
TLOU P1 and P2 will chart on both the Steam and PlayStation Stores in 2025
Halo will appear on PlayStation before the end of the generation
The Switch 2 will struggle to sell as well as the Switch similar to how the 3DS struggled to sell as well as the DS
From software x Sony coming by 2027
Xenoblade X2 for Switch 2
Naughty Dog new IP coming early 2028
Xbox leaves console race, but still sells branded accessories and OEM consoles in 2026
Bluepoint is making Demigod of War
Xbox games all coming to PS(halo,gears, forza) day and date
GTAVI gets awarded a 99 on Metacritic and runs at 60fps on PS5 Pro
Metroid Prime 4 end of this year
Ghost of Tsushima 2 coming 2026
Xenoblade X2 for Switch 2
Naughty Dog new IP coming early 2028
Xbox leaves console race, but still sells branded accessories and OEM consoles in 2026
Bluepoint is making Demigod of War
Xbox games all coming to PS(halo,gears, forza) day and date
GTAVI gets awarded a 99 on Metacritic and runs at 60fps on PS5 Pro
Metroid Prime 4 end of this year
Ghost of Tsushima 2 coming 2026
Valve
-SteamDeck is just an entry into Home consoles for Valve. They will replace MS in the console place. A home console with cheaper digital prices for games, don’t have to pay to go online.
-Steam Platform will be playable on PC, Handheld, Console.
MS
-MS will go 3rd party but release a handheld.
-MS will allow 3rd party to make consoles while they allow there game store on it. Just like 3rd party companies make PC’s that use Windows out the box. All under Microsoft store/windows etc.
Playstation
-PS will release a Handheld and PC launcher. Maybe rushed a bit?
-PS would be wise to stop releasing on Steam, there direct competitor.
-PS will adapt like PS3 gen
Nintendo
With a history of messing up after succeeding in home consoles. It can either go:
-A.)
The don’t take there success for granted, give Switch 2 a clear name, don’t price it higher than Switch OLED. And have good 3rd party power they can do really well.
Since the Wii U, they have had a successful movie (we all now know a successful tv/movie = some extra sales, TLOU, Fallout etc). They have 2 theme parks coming. And a generation of there best selling software, going super commercial with games like Mario Kart 8, Animal Crossing, Zelda hitting new selling heights and the usual Pokemon) So they can carry on over there and do really well. They are more secure than ever
Or
-B.) Make the typical mistakes they do. And they have new challenges with Switch 2. Over price there hybrid, give it a bad name, not enough software (I dont see that happening).
The Switch 2 wont have the same advantage it had with some games. The Switch had many ports and remakes from Wii-WiiU to spread the gap of games.
Games like Mario Kart 8, Zelda already made there cost on the Wii U, so it was pure profit on the Switch. Not that it will be a big problem, but they have that bonus now, and less remasters/ports to fill in release gaps.
They also have been making games for like 2006-2010standards. Yes they have great art style, but certain games will have look better in open area spots etc. Games will cost more, Nintendo will for the first time have to have some modern performance and maybe even 4k
-SteamDeck is just an entry into Home consoles for Valve. They will replace MS in the console place. A home console with cheaper digital prices for games, don’t have to pay to go online.
-Steam Platform will be playable on PC, Handheld, Console.
MS
-MS will go 3rd party but release a handheld.
-MS will allow 3rd party to make consoles while they allow there game store on it. Just like 3rd party companies make PC’s that use Windows out the box. All under Microsoft store/windows etc.
Playstation
-PS will release a Handheld and PC launcher. Maybe rushed a bit?
-PS would be wise to stop releasing on Steam, there direct competitor.
-PS will adapt like PS3 gen
Nintendo
With a history of messing up after succeeding in home consoles. It can either go:
-A.)
The don’t take there success for granted, give Switch 2 a clear name, don’t price it higher than Switch OLED. And have good 3rd party power they can do really well.
Since the Wii U, they have had a successful movie (we all now know a successful tv/movie = some extra sales, TLOU, Fallout etc). They have 2 theme parks coming. And a generation of there best selling software, going super commercial with games like Mario Kart 8, Animal Crossing, Zelda hitting new selling heights and the usual Pokemon) So they can carry on over there and do really well. They are more secure than ever
Or
-B.) Make the typical mistakes they do. And they have new challenges with Switch 2. Over price there hybrid, give it a bad name, not enough software (I dont see that happening).
The Switch 2 wont have the same advantage it had with some games. The Switch had many ports and remakes from Wii-WiiU to spread the gap of games.
Games like Mario Kart 8, Zelda already made there cost on the Wii U, so it was pure profit on the Switch. Not that it will be a big problem, but they have that bonus now, and less remasters/ports to fill in release gaps.
They also have been making games for like 2006-2010standards. Yes they have great art style, but certain games will have look better in open area spots etc. Games will cost more, Nintendo will for the first time have to have some modern performance and maybe even 4k
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OP
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The beginning of course will be tht has happened every gen for decades.
Id say 3rd party that has been the case alot, especially annual release type games. But 1st party was mostly exclusive to a generation(PS2/PS3/PS4)
Launch year games.
PS2 - GT3. Fantavision. Loads of 3rd party like Bouncer, DOA2, Armoured Core 2. God of War 2 came out after PS3 released but wasnt cross gen till the port.
PS3-Resistance. MotorStorm etc. Most 1st party games were exclusive for PS2 or PS3 not crossgen
PS4- Killzone, Knack, Infamous 2nd Son etc
PS5 - Demons Souls - Astrbot Demo
I would be stunned if every PS6 launch title wasn't crossgen.
GT6 not being crossgen really hurt the PS4 and Gran Turismo 6. Same with God of War 2.
One of the biggest advantages PC has had over consoles is that there aren't really generations. PC is a platform.
PlayStation for the first time is going to actually become a platform.
Some people will hate that and some people will like that. It has its pros and cons.
GT6 not being crossgen really hurt the PS4 and Gran Turismo 6. Same with God of War 2.
One of the biggest advantages PC has had over consoles is that there aren't really generations. PC is a platform.
PlayStation for the first time is going to actually become a platform.
Some people will hate that and some people will like that. It has its pros and cons.
Its a doom sony prediction from me
Sony will be in similar situation with xbox ( slowly already happened now) during PS6 if they keep doing the pc port like xbox
PS7 will probably be the last sony console
Nintendo will start producing high end console and become the de facto winner in the future
Sony will be in similar situation with xbox ( slowly already happened now) during PS6 if they keep doing the pc port like xbox
PS7 will probably be the last sony console
Nintendo will start producing high end console and become the de facto winner in the future
Someone ban this dude; this forum has no place for HATE.
@Gamernyc78, this guy has a flight sim kinda name; you deal with him, thanks.
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Flight sim kind of name lol you know I'm staying well away from tht like I'm staying away from beautiful Alex Battaglia pics
[SONY/SIE]
[MICROSOFT GAMING]
[NINTENDO]
-50/50 chance of continuing/doubling down on the PC ports including shorter port windows for non-GAAS or even Day 1. If they:
>DO: PS5 will continue to track further behind PS4 when launch-aligned. PS+ sub revenue will drop. SIE 1P sales on console will see a decline. Total 1P software revenue on console will decline. PS5 Pro will perform quite worst (potentially 50% less) than PS4 Pro in total sales. PS6 will have a slower start, somewhere between PS3 and PS4.
>DON'T: PS5 can likely realign and start tracking ahead of PS4 again with combination of selective price cuts in certain regions & enthusiast interest in PS5 Pro. GTA6 will provide another bump (would do the same in 'DO' case but less so b/c of other factors). PS5 Pro could do about same or somewhat better than PS4 Pro. PS6 may have a slower start, somewhere between PS4 and PS5, but could track closer to PS5 start/momentum when paired with other smart decisions over next 3-4 years.
-Will probably invest in a PC launcher BTS. If it's dramatically slowed/shelved for a later period in the next generation, fits into the 'DON'T' scenario above. If pushed aggressively for launch in a year or two, fits into the 'DO' scenario above.
-Will look into a PlayStation portable. If 'DO' scenario plays out, it'll probably just be a glorified PC handheld with integrated quick access to a PlayStation PC launcher with some Other OS option for Linux or Windows. Limited market numbers, but could launch sooner. Probably easily outsold by a new Steam Deck and maybe even whatever Xbox handheld comes around.
If 'DON'T' scenario plays out, will be a mini-PS6 in handheld form, hopefully with a way to auto-scale assets and optimize performance on behalf of developers. It'll be a 'PS6 Portable' that can also natively play PS4, PS5 and PS5 Pro games. May offer a dockable option. Releases later (closer to PS6). Much larger potential market, especially for regions like Japan. Could do 35-45 million in lifetime unit sales (conservative estimate).
[MICROSOFT GAMING]
-Either closes Ninja Theory or gives them a buyout option (unlikely; they don't own any notable IP sales-wise). If closed, various employees will join SIE, Remedy, and Rockstar
-Likely either closes or spins off Double Fine. If latter, can see Nintendo, Annapurna, SIE, Devolver, or Ubisoft investing into them for a partnership deal to co-develop a game or two for them (using IP belonging to those companies specifically Nintendo, SIE or Ubisoft).
-Cuts down Turn 10, breaks them up into two parts. One part partially absorbed into Playground Games, other part becomes a support studio to provide sim racing dev & tech to 3P sim racer teams.
-Likely trims head count at several other studios (Compulsion, inXile, etc) and merges the remains into a single studio
-Likely merges Obsidian into Bethesda Softworks
-Cancels following games: Perfect Dark reboot, Project Mara, Everwild, Outer Worlds 2, Contraband
-Gets Obsidian (merged with Bethesda) working on next Fallout game ASAP
-Gets iD Software working on next DOOM & Quake games; Wolfenstein IP shelved for "some time"
-Next Halo game co-developed between 343i, members of The Coalition, members of iD Software, & Creative Assembly. Multiplat Day 1
-Sunsets Grounded
-Gets Coalition working on Gears 6, Day 1 multiplat
-Decides NOT to launch COD in Game Pass Day 1
-Removes Day 1 Game Pass; turns this into Day 1 Trails (demos/1-5 hour slices) of all 1P games instead
-Keeps Game Pass prices the same; ties in free & discounted perks to Game Pass subscribers
-Probably teases the Xbox handheld officially at June Showcase; actual reveal at the VGAs in December
-Probably teases their Xbox gaming PC stuff in 2026 (launches either Late 2026 or early 2027)
[NINTENDO]
-FINALLY does a price cut for Switch early Fall but probably only by $50; does some bundles to add further value
-Formally announces Switch 2 at TGS; official reveal January 2025
-Launches Switch 2 in Late March 2025, likely slightly ahead of GTA6
-Two Switch 2 SKUs:
-32 GB storage (just for critical system files & updates); user buys extra internal storage. $349
-256 GB storage; for system files, game installs, saves, media apps etc. Upgradable. Also reserve private 32 GB storage for critical system files only. $449
-Both SKUs have same specs, included dock, Joycons.
-New mainline 3D Mario game at launch
-New Smash Bros within the 1st year
-Very likely a port of FF VII Remake & downscaled Rebirth as double-package game either at launch or within first six months, potentially with extra exclusive content (i.e Zelda-themed costumes for Cloud & co., or side games themed off Nintendo stuff)
-WILL get a GTA6 port, but around time of PC version. So not until Early 2026 at soonest.
-Next Mario Kart might add F-Zero style vehicles and F-Zero themed costumes for Mario characters, because Nintendo still won't make a new F-Zero proper :/
-Most likely will do a Mario x Sonic RPG. Nintendo/SEGA co-development.
-Will likely phase out Switch OLED & Switch Lite around Switch 2 launch. Keep it at $249 for a while but add other games to offering for value. Cease Switch 1 manufacturing around EOY 2025 or Early 2026
-Be a lot more aggressive with getting 3P support on the Switch 2 out of the gate, including co-development partnerships and maybe a couple very select 3P exclusivity deals (likely for AA and indie games)
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