Media Create reports Xbox Series sales are HALF what Famitsu has reported.

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Yeah, agree. I don't think they did either.

I know there are certain boys here that want to believe it happened, but there is literally just one rumor from Imran Khan, and no one else reported it. But let's look at it from a logical POV:

• The 2020 rumor said that they tried getting Starfield as a timed exclusive but couldn't because of Microsoft. Means they'd have gotten, at best, a 2019 build to evaluate it. If the game looks this bad in 2022 in a vertical slice, imagine how awful it must have looked in 2019. Would they even have anything substantial to show back then, considering Jason's reports that they have been half-assing it for a while? I doubt it.
• Imran Khan said they got timed exclusives from every publisher. I don't see any timed exclusives from Ubisoft, Take Two, EA, Capcom, etc. Means the rumor was already false to begin with.
• They got Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo. What was stopping them for getting Starfield if they really wanted to? Microsoft? Don't fanboys say that Microsoft couldn't influence any decision before the acquisition? Whether they could influence or they couldn't: they gotta pick one

Yep. It never made sense that MS would've blocked Sony from getting Starfield if Sony somehow still managed to get Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo. Sony would've had the buy-in, not Microsoft. I guess MS could've put in a much higher bid but it seems against the pattern they had at the time, especially if they were already considering buying Zenimax earlier in 2020 (that alone btw wouldn't have stopped Sony from getting timed exclusivity on Starfield).

The only think I would feel good saying a certainty when it comes to Starfield exclusivity or whatever, is that probably because Microsoft did end up getting Zenimax and Sony didn't lock down Starfield, they may've turned to securing the KOTOR Remake as a response. Considering both Starfield and KOTOR Remake were originally going to be 2022 games it makes sense.

Unfortunately that KOTOR Remake looks like it's in a rough spot atm and it's quite a few years out. It's understandable, but it might've been announced too early.

Is it bad that I really don't think it looks bad? It certainly looks derivative, for sure, but I can't say the gameplay looked bad. I mean No Man's Sky has a similar gameplay loop and I enjoy that. It's just that I kind of expected something a tad more original from such a hyped AAA IP.

No not really. TBH I do like most of what they've shown for Starfield if I'm looking at the game as a whole. That demo from June just had really bad framerate/framepacing issues and some other graphical/technical issues. The game is probably still too ambiguously ambitious (as in, size just for the sake of it i.e 1,000 planets) for its own good and can very much collapse under its own weight, but it should at least be serviceable.

Problem is the game has been hyped so much and is so symbolic of what's meant to be a turnaround in Xbox's 1P fortunes, that anything less than a genuine GOTY contender, like if it's something where people have to excuse serious jank as just being "Bethesda quirks"...will be a failure. And it'll cast a serious shadow of doubt over if Xbox can release any big AAA 1P IP in the future that are high-quality and either retain current quality let alone get better, outside of yet more Forza and Forza Horizon entries.

I think MS know how important Starfield going above and beyond is not just for Bethesda's brand image but Microsoft's in the gaming space as well. If that game ends up being forgettable, or only serviceable, it's just going to reaffirm every fear about MS having an inability to nurture and grow their acquired content and making them better than they were before. Those fears don't exist with Sony or Nintendo, and Embracer isn't a platform holder so that's not really an expectation of them (though IMO it should be).

Next big showing for the game should signal what way it actually leans.

I wonder how long you’re going to last

Every court needs its jester

 

[Darth Vader]

Every court needs its jester

 

[Darth Vader]

No not really. TBH I do like most of what they've shown for Starfield if I'm looking at the game as a whole. That demo from June just had really bad framerate/framepacing issues and some other graphical/technical issues. The game is probably still too ambiguously ambitious (as in, size just for the sake of it i.e 1,000 planets) for its own good and can very much collapse under its own weight, but it should at least be serviceable.

I think framepacing and framerate issues are the least. What I saw was a janky copy of No Mans Sky that actually looked and ran worse. Also, let's not say 1000 planets is ambitious when the aforementioned NMS has pretty much an infinite amount of planets. That said, we'll see what those 1000 planets have.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Yep. It never made sense that MS would've blocked Sony from getting Starfield if Sony somehow still managed to get Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo. Sony would've had the buy-in, not Microsoft. I guess MS could've put in a much higher bid but it seems against the pattern they had at the time, especially if they were already considering buying Zenimax earlier in 2020 (that alone btw wouldn't have stopped Sony from getting timed exclusivity on Starfield).

The only think I would feel good saying a certainty when it comes to Starfield exclusivity or whatever, is that probably because Microsoft did end up getting Zenimax and Sony didn't lock down Starfield, they may've turned to securing the KOTOR Remake as a response. Considering both Starfield and KOTOR Remake were originally going to be 2022 games it makes sense.

Unfortunately that KOTOR Remake looks like it's in a rough spot atm and it's quite a few years out. It's understandable, but it might've been announced too early.

Yeah, could be. Also, I think the problems with KOTOR Remake are more likely to do with creative direction, rather than development problems (unless I missed something).

KOTOR director submitted assets and shared the progress of the game developement and felt good about everything. Sony didn't like what they shared and asked to change the leadership (and, therefore, the direction of the game).

So the game was progressing well (barring the inevitable delay or two which is common in the industry), but Sony didn't think what they had was up to PlayStation's standards, so they are going to change the direction a bit and put more work into it.

 

[Dr Bass]

I think framepacing and framerate issues are the least. What I saw was a janky copy of No Mans Sky that actually looked and ran worse. Also, let's not say 1000 planets is ambitious when the aforementioned NMS has pretty much an infinite amount of planets. That said, we'll see what those 1000 planets have.

Obviously it's going to be 1000 planets of the best hand crafted gameplay we've ever seen.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Nintendo uses Media Create to track their sales in Japan. That alone shows they are the more reliable of the two.

Complete nonsense and a logical fallacy. Also, MC and Famitsu numbers are very close, so either both are reliable or none are. You gotta find a way to cope with Xbox success

 

[Darth Vader]

Complete nonsense and a logical fallacy. Also, MC and Famitsu numbers are very close, so either both are reliable or none are. You gotta find a way to cope with Xbox success

Funny you mention logical fallacies when your comment includes a fallacy, namely the fallacy of incomplete evidence. MC and Famitsu numbers are very close for Nintendo and Sony, not Xbox. The differential in Xbox numbers alone should raise a flag on which publication provides the more accurate data, which is what's being discussed.

The argument here is pretty simple - claim that since Nintendo uses Media Create data to report on their sales, Media Create's data is more accurate. This alone is not enough to infer that MC is the more accurate of the publications and you could allege it's a non-sequitur. The caveat however, is that one can infer that Nintendo's purpose for the usage of the data, data which must be accurate in order to comply with their fiduciary duties, confers it an additional level of credibility and accuracy. So it is absolutely not a logical fallacy to reach the conclusion I just reached.

Additionally, why would I need to cope with Microsoft's numbers? I'm not a stockholder of any of the gaming companies, nor I want to be, and Microsoft selling 10 units or 10 million units does not provide me with any personal enjoyment or grievance. What I care is about accurate data and reporting when reading numbers. It's part of my job day to day, and it's part of how I act in an argument. You can try to spin this as you want, but I'd also recommend you to check what an Ad Hominem is.

Finally, if you want to further discuss fallacies, I'd advise you to check what a tu quoque fallacy is. You may learn something

 

[Heisenberg007]

Complete nonsense and a logical fallacy. Also, MC and Famitsu numbers are very close, so either both are reliable or none are. You gotta find a way to cope with Xbox success

Yeah, it takes a lot of "success" and efforts to stay in the last place

 

[azertydu91]

Yeah, it takes a lot of "success" and efforts to stay in the last place

Yeah I'm sure Usain Bolt have a hard time coping with my 100m success, poor guy he must be so jealous of me.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Funny you mention logical fallacies when your comment includes a fallacy, namely the fallacy of incomplete evidence.

Funny because no only do you not have incomplete evidence, you have zero evidence.

MC and Famitsu numbers are very close for Nintendo

Exactly, and you mentioned Nintendo to make a point.

The differential in Xbox numbers alone should raise a flag on which publication provides the more accurate data

For Xbox, not for Nintendo.

The argument here is pretty simple - claim that since Nintendo uses Media Create data to report on their sales, Media Create's data is more accurate.

And the argument makes no sense, since the Nintendo numbers are almost the same for both MC and Famitsu.

one can infer that Nintendo's purpose for the usage of the data, data which must be accurate in order to comply with their fiduciary duties, confers it an additional level of credibility and accuracy. So it is absolutely not a logical fallacy to reach the conclusion I just reached.

Nintendo also does internal estimates and doesn't rely solely on MC. And again, Famitsu numbers are very similar.

Additionally, why would I need to cope with Microsoft's numbers?

Idk, you seem to be very invested in the MC = correct and Famitsu = wrong narrative.

If you want to make an argument about which publication is more accurate, you need to gather information on their methodologies for estimating these numbers. Since the methodologies are mostly secret, you can't make a claim one way or the other.

 

[ethomaz]

It is pretty easy to understand why Media Create numbers are different than Famitsu (and that already happened with Switch games showing big discrepancies whatever Amazon bundes a game with console).

Media Create tracks Amazon.co.jp.
Famitsu doesn't track Amazon.co.jp.

In 2020 the first COVID-19 years Amazon.co.jp basically increase it sales 3 times over 2019... what that mean? Japanese started to buy more online than at local stores... before that only 10% of sales were made via website in Japan that increase to around 30% (US was near 50% for comparison... increased post COVID to near 60% I believe... I think 2021 was 56% if I'm not wrong).

Amazon.co.jo are one of two biggest online retail in Japan... Rakuten is the other... they are always tied at #1 and #2.

That is why Famitsu is not reliable like MediaCreate.

But it is not a lost case... Famitsu like any other tracker will start doing adjustments until reach the accurate numbers... in the Series if they realize their numbers are too high they will start to post lower numbers than their tracked/estimated until the overall numbers become more close to what they realized.

So if Famistu is not accurate in the future they will start to post lower numbers per week until Media Create numbers catch them.

 

[Heisenberg007]

It is pretty easy to understand why Media Create numbers are different than Famitsu (and that already happened with Switch games showing big discrepancies whatever Amazon bundes a game with console).

Media Create tracks Amazon.co.jp.
Famitsu doesn't track Amazon.co.jp.

In 2020 the first COVID-19 years Amazon.co.jp basically increase it sales 3 times over 2019... what that mean? Japanese started to buy more online than at local stores... before that only 10% of sales were made via website in Japan that increase to around 30% (US was near 50% for comparison... increased post COVID to near 60% I believe... I think 2021 was 56% if I'm not wrong).

Amazon.co.jo are one of two biggest online retail in Japan... Rakuten is the other... they are always tied at #1 and #2.

That is why Famitsu is not reliable like MediaCreate.

But it is not a lost case... Famitsu like any other tracker will start doing adjustments until reach the accurate numbers... in the Series if they realize their numbers are too high they will start to post lower numbers than their tracked/estimated until the overall numbers become more close to what they realized.

So if Famistu is not accurate in the future they will start to post lower numbers per week until Media Create numbers catch them.

But in that case, shouldn't Media Create report higher Xbox numbers then if it also includes Amazon.co.jp and all the Xbox units sold through Amazon Japan?

 

[Darth Vader]

Funny because no only do you not have incomplete evidence, you have zero evidence.

Zero evidence of the massive delta in sales from the Xbox side? That has been provided before. Stop trying to misrepresent what I said and be honest for two seconds.

Exactly, and you mentioned Nintendo to make a point.

Indeed. The point being that Nintendo would use the most accurate publication to report on numbers in order to comply with their fiduciary duties. it doesn't matter if they are similar or dissimilar in reporting Nintendo's numbers.

For Xbox, not for Nintendo.

Besides the point.

And the argument makes no sense, since the Nintendo numbers are almost the same for both MC and Famitsu.

And yet Nintendo doesn't use Famitsu. Your argument was that Famitsu is more accurate and that Media Create needs to fix their numbers, yet Nintendo, a company that trades in the stock market, uses the later, not the former.

Nintendo also does internal estimates and doesn't rely solely on MC. And again, Famitsu numbers are very similar.

Besides the point.

Idk, you seem to be very invested in the MC = correct and Famitsu = wrong narrative.

If you want to make an argument about which publication is more accurate, you need to gather information on their methodologies for estimating these numbers. Since the methodologies are mostly secret, you can't make a claim one way or the other.

You seem to be very invested in the Famitsu = correct and MC = wrong narrative.

And while I agree knowing their methodologies would be the perfect method in determining which one is the most accurate, the fact that a stock market traded company reports their numbers based on MC gives that publication more credibility.

 

[ethomaz]

But in that case, shouldn't Media Create report higher Xbox numbers then if it also includes Amazon.co.jp and all the Xbox units sold through Amazon Japan?

Related to Amazon.co.jp only MC is accurate... they get real data from them.
Famitsu is the one that estimate Amazon.co.jp data.

When I sai include data from any retail is talking about receiving the data from the retail vs estimating that retail data... both MC and Famitsu have to estimate the non-partner retailers to reach 100%.

In simple terms there is no way MC is wrong with Amazon.co.jp data unless they made a human mistake (typed the wrong number when inputting in the system) or Amazon.co.uk passed mistaken data to them.
Now Famitsu data for Amazon.co.jp can be higher, lower, etc because it just an estimate... not real data.

Amaazon.co.jp is just an example because it is one big retail difference between the trackers and the one the generate the bigger divergences... there are several smaller retailers that Famitsu tracks and MC not... and vice-versa MC tracks and Famitsh not... due Amazon.co.jp being around 5% of the market in the past (even more post COVID-19) they are the big difference between the two trackers.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Zero evidence of the massive delta in sales from the Xbox side? That has been provided before. Stop trying to misrepresent what I said and be honest for two seconds.

That's not evidence for MC being more accurate than Famitsu.

Indeed. The point being that Nintendo would use the most accurate publication to report on numbers in order to comply with their fiduciary duties. it doesn't matter if they are similar or dissimilar in reporting Nintendo's numbers.

It does matter, since they're both accurate and thus your argument falls apart.

Your argument was that Famitsu is more accurate and that Media Create needs to fix their numbers

Wrong, I never made such an argument. I said we can't tell which one is more accurate.

You seem to be very invested in the Famitsu = correct and MC = wrong narrative.

Wrong again.

And while I agree knowing their methodologies would be the perfect method in determining which one is the most accurate, the fact that a stock market traded company reports their numbers based on MC gives that publication more credibility.

Again, Famitsu's Nintendo numbers are similar to MCs. So either both are credible or none are.

 

[ethomaz]

Again, Famitsu's Nintendo numbers are similar to MCs. So either both are credible or none are.

That is actually false.

Nintendo Switch number in hardware and software have big discrepancies in the past between MC and Famitsu because one receive real data from Amazon.co.jp and the other not.

When I say past it is recent past... after all Switch is not that old yet.
For exemple every time Amazon.co.jp bundles a game with Switch the Fatmisu tracking for that game is way lower than Media Create... while they have small differences when that happen the difference is really big.

Remember Series difference is really small because the console sells very little in Japan and so that can be on Amazon.co.jp differences.

PS. It is hard to see the differences nowdays because MC doesn't release more public data.... in the past you could spot them every week.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Related to Amazon.co.jp only MC is accurate... they get real data from them.
Famitsu is the one that estimate Amazon.co.jp data.

When I sai include data from any retail is talking about receiving the data from the retail vs estimating that retail data... both MC and Famitsu have to estimate the non-partner retailers to reach 100%.

In simple terms there is no way MC is wrong with Amazon.co.jp data unless they made a human mistake (typed the wrong number when inputting in the system) or Amazon.co.uk passed mistaken data to them.
Now Famitsu data for Amazon.co.jp can be higher, lower, etc because it just an estimate... not real data.

Amaazon.co.jp is just an example because it is one big retail difference between the trackers and the one the generate the bigger divergences... there are several smaller retailers that Famitsu tracks and MC not... and vice-versa MC tracks and Famitsh not... due Amazon.co.jp being around 5% of the market in the past (even more post COVID-19) they are the big difference between the two trackers.

Oh okay, that makes sense.

So both MC and Famitsu include Amazon JP data in their calculations. The difference is that MC adds tracked, accurate data, while Famitsu uses estimates for Amazon data?

That could explain the difference, at least partially. A 2x difference, however, is still a bit odd.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

That is actually false.

Nintendo Switch number in hardware and software have big discrepancies in the past between MC and Famitsu because one receive real data from Amazon.co.jp and the other not.

When I say past it is recent past... after all Switch is not that old yet.
For exemple every time Amazon.co.jp bundles a game with Switch the Fatmisu tracking for that game is way lower than Media Create... while they have small differences when that happen the difference is really big.

Remember Series difference is really small because the console sells very little in Japan and so that can be on Amazon.co.jp differences.

PS. It is hard to see the differences nowdays because MC doesn't release more public data.... in the past you could spot them every week.

Could you show some examples of these big discrepancies? Also it's not like MC gets all the data. Last (somewhat old) estimate is that they cover around 40% of the market.

 

[ethomaz]

Oh okay, that makes sense.

So both MC and Famitsu include Amazon JP data in their calculations. The difference is that MC adds tracked, accurate data, while Famitsu uses estimates for Amazon data?

That could explain the difference, at least partially. A 2x difference, however, is still a bit odd.

Well it is 2x over small data.... I mean the difference is like 50k near 3 years of tracking.... if you do 50k / 144 weeks you have a difference around 350 units per week.

 

[ethomaz]

Could you show some examples of these big discrepancies? Also it's not like MC gets all the data. Last (somewhat old) estimate is that they cover around 40% of the market.

Yes.

First week of 2017.
3DS MC: 88,878 (previous week: 70,522; last year same week: 60,479)
3DS Famitsu: 121,419 (previous week: 119,848; last year same week: 51,144)

That example seems to show Famitsu doing some adjustment in late 2016 / early 2017 because it showed lower numbers in early 2016.

Where you are getting these 40%? From what I know both always tracked over 2/3 of Japanese market... that is over 66%? But I can try to check late in Japanese to know where it is today.

For curiosity GAF and others places always used Media Create data for maths and share Japanese data even when Famitsu shared the data first... it changed to Famitsu after Media Create stopped to share public data and to be fair the thread were called in GAF and ERA "Media Create" and today in Install Base even when there is barely any MC public data.

I have no issue sticking with Famitsu numbers btw... they will fix in the future if there is any divergency.