Microsoft Earnings Q4 2022

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Hobbygaming

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They only reveal the public numbers once at the start of the year, they've done that in 2022, 2021, 2020.

If they were really channel stuffing millions of $1 subs, you'd think they would be talking about it every month 😂

I swear, it makes sense why so many like minded individuals have ended up here lol.
Gamepass has only been doing about 5 million subs per year and it often costs couch money to join 😂😂😂

It hasn't been the hit that Microsoft wanted, I bet it's already starting to stagnate in numbers even with their "growth" PR
 

Remember_Spinal

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Gamepass has only been doing about 5 million subs per year and it often costs couch money to join 😂😂😂

It hasn't been the hit that Microsoft wanted, I bet it's already starting to stagnate in numbers even with their "growth" PR

Yeah growth doesn’t mean shit seeing how microsoft come up with stats. they could simply be referring to more people using xcloud as growth

Look how they framed their console sales “market leader in North America for 3 quarters” which is discounting nintendo and discounting that playstation is still earning more revenue per console.
 
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They have TLOU remake and two Spider-man PC ports and they will be reporting their bungie revenue

Yeah but I think in the case of Spiderman they are splitting up 2018 & Miles Morales, the latter drops in Fall 2022 so it won't count towards Q2 but Q3, as it probably will be something like October or even November.

Did forget for a moment on the Bungie revenue tho, they'll be able to roll that in now going forward so quarterly revenue will be up YOY no matter what.

Yeah growth doesn’t mean shit seeing how microsoft come up with stats. they could simply be referring to more people using xcloud as growth

Look how they framed their console sales “market leader in North America for 3 quarters” which is discounting nintendo and discounting that playstation is still earning more revenue per console.

Can't knock the hustle; if they've got a metric they can parade, they'll do it for all its worth. Plus it's one with some actual measurable & standardized metric attached to it (the consoles are generally selling for either $299 or $499, although in MS's case there's quite a few official refurbished units and All-Access units in that mix too which would affect the average cost/hardware revenue amount).

But it's also kind of really cheesy on their part, considering how much they avoid talking numbers any other time when it comes to console sales. They got cheeky tho with Greenberg quoting VGChartz (even tho they just admitted some of their Xbox estimates were inflated by over 200K), and now they're puffing their chests since they prioritized NA for three quarters and Sony didn't.

It's annoying when they do stuff like this because they don't have the care to just continue talking console sales numbers when they aren't #1. Like, either be consistent and report the numbers regardless or don't report them at all. I guess it says something though that even when they can claim a market for a couple of quarters they don't share numbers, they just boast the claim.

Just feels like such a half-measure approach because they're aware of the very real possibility they won't be able to make such boasts or have stronger numbers than Sony in territories like NA once supply for the consoles finally begins catching up with demand (and some signs probably indicate Microsoft were starting to equalize supply relative demand much earlier this year; Sony still have a ways to go to get there because of having more demand).

It hasn't been the hit that Microsoft wanted, I bet it's already starting to stagnate in numbers even with their "growth" PR

All sub services have a dynamic ebb and flow to their sub #s where they'll gain some and lose some over months. It's kind of cheeky though that MS only report GP sub numbers annually, whereas for other subscription services (basically, all the movie/tv services and the music ones) those numbers are given monthly.

Yes Sony & Nintendo don't provide monthly numbers either, but at least when they give annual numbers, they also provide the actual revenue of their subscription services alongside that so as not only an investor but also just a fan, you can get a good gauge for how their subscription flow probably works out year-round (providing actual active user counts also helps a lot).

Despite seemingly going hard in on GamePass, MS aren't very transparent with a lot of the more granular numbers of the service whatsoever.
 

Heisenberg007

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Yeah but I think in the case of Spiderman they are splitting up 2018 & Miles Morales, the latter drops in Fall 2022 so it won't count towards Q2 but Q3, as it probably will be something like October or even November.

Did forget for a moment on the Bungie revenue tho, they'll be able to roll that in now going forward so quarterly revenue will be up YOY no matter what.
Yep, revenue figures get real murky with acquisitions. It's better to see things in isolation -- seeing PlayStation's revenue after discarding Bungie's revenue. Same goes for Xbox / Bethesda / Activision / Obsidian / Ninja Theory etc.

That's also why sharing revenue figures alone (after acquiring a bunch of businesses) is misleading at best. Only P&L statements will give a true idea of whether a business is moving in the right direction or not and how successful those acquisitions have been.
 

Yurinka

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Maybe TLOU1 Remake technically counts as a major 1P release for Q2? Outside of that though yeah I don't think Sony has anything until GOW Ragnarok and that is Q3.
It's a remake of a 2 generations ago game that got a remaster in the previous gen. I think doesn't count as a major release. The Sony Visual Arts Group team wanted to lead their own project so they started doing this an Hermen got promoted to its current position and knew about the existance of this project didn't like it.

I don't think they'll market a lot this quarter or that will sell a lot at launch. I think for Sony it's more to keep the game fresh to crosspromote it with the tv series, with the TLOU MP and to likely in the near future to bundle it with a future PS5 & PC version of TLOU2.

I actually think hardware sales will be at least slightly up; the supply was a lot better in NA for June, and it's generally been stabilizing into better supply in all territories, Japan is another one. The only reason hardware sales might be only slightly improved (or modestly improved) is because Sony may be holding off on the bulk of new stock for Q3, especially for territories like NA and most of Europe.

I mean they have that 18.3 million forecast for FY2022 and the still have 15+ million to go to hit it in 9 months. Even with an even split for all three remaining quarters, they should be able to do more than 2x hardware numbers for Q2, Q3 and Q4. Even if Q3 gets majority of the remaining stock, things would have to go wrong for Q2 hardware sales to be flat (but I'm also going off rocky memory for FY2021 hardware numbers which I think were ~10 million, right? Maybe a bit less? I saw you post some charts in the Sony fiscal results thread with FY2021 quarterly hardware figures but I haven't looked at them in days).
I think they won't hold any stock, storage is a cost specially with a quicly rising inflation in many countries. I think they'll keep producing and shipping asap all the units they can. Which I think in Q2 won't be a lot more than in the previous Q2, but in the case of Q3 I think they'll be able to achieve a huge increase YoY.
 

adamsapple

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Gamepass has only been doing about 5 million subs per year and it often costs couch money to join 😂😂😂

It hasn't been the hit that Microsoft wanted, I bet it's already starting to stagnate in numbers even with their "growth" PR

I don't know about that man, did you see what Sony had to say about it recently ? They're legit scared and admit themselves they can't match game pass for a bunch of years.

This isn't any fanboy drivel, this is official communique from Sony.


NkIlIJs.png
 
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ethomaz

ethomaz

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I don't know about that man, did you see what Sony had to say about it recently ? They're legit scared and admit themselves they can't match game pass for a bunch of years.

This isn't any fanboy drivel, this is official communique from Sony.


NkIlIJs.png
That is the market share of subscription services.
Outside Gamepass there are EA Access and Ubisoft something.

Now how you read that as translate to "scared" is telling lol
CoD is a bigger franchise and can't be create by others publishers (if it could EA and Ubisoft should have it own CoD right now)... it takes year to grow a CoD and it is not certain it will be sucessful.
Sony has a lot of revenue from CoD and it is the biggest revenue from 3rd-party (because it is annual... GTA is bigger but it revenue is not yearly constant)... another indisputable fact.
 
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Heisenberg007

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I don't know about that man, did you see what Sony had to say about it recently ? They're legit scared and admit themselves they can't match game pass for a bunch of years.

This isn't any fanboy drivel, this is official communique from Sony.


NkIlIJs.png
Sony is just playing dirty and using its position to ensure that at least COD remains multiplatform -- not just by Microsoft's own commitment but through a binding order by the FTC.

Bonus points if they can ensure that COD does not join Gamepass, hence the above statement (which isn't wholly accurate either). GP does not have a 60-70% share of the global subscription services market; we know that because Sony's own PS+ commands twice the number of subscribers.

If I were to guess, they based this data on this presentation by Microsoft.

https://ibb.co/Rb36y1P

As you can see, this does not include PS+, which inflates Gamepass's market share. Also, this does not include Asian markets, which would include Nintendo Switch Online and push Gmaepass's share even lower.

This way Sony can avoid liability of presenting "incorrect" data (because the numbers came from Microsoft), while still making a case that COD should not join Gamepass on day one, completely eliminating Xbox's huge competitive advantage, basically rendering the Activision acquisition useless (to a large extent).
 
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ethomaz

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As you can see, this does not include PS+, which inflates Gamepass's market share. Also, this does not include Asian markets, which would include Nintendo Switch Online and push Gmaepass's share even lower.
It only includes game subscription services that PS+ is not (or Switch's online)... PS++ and PS+++ are but they were not launched at time so there is no market share for them :D

The % is between Gamepass, EA Play and Ubisoft Plus I believe... PS Now is a game streaming services so I don't think it is considered a game subscription service but even if it is won't make difference.
 

Heisenberg007

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It only includes game subscription services that PS+ is not (or Switch's online)... PS++ and PS+++ are but they were not launched at time so there is no market share for them :D

The % is between Gamepass, EA Play and Ubisoft Plus I believe... PS Now is a game streaming services so I don't think it is considered a game subscription service but even if it is won't make difference.
Yes, but PS+ is a direct competitor to Gamepass.

Sony is just being coy here, and rightly so. I'd do that, too, if just making my competitor bigger than what it is in a room full of suits (not public marketing) nullifies the competitive advantage that they are trying to gain by spending $70 billion. It's smart.
 

Darth Vader

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Yeah, and I was honestly being very conservative with that ratio. Data suggests that it is way more aggressive in favor of the Disk edition (which means even more operating profit for Sony).

If we look at the split in the latest Famitsu report, the ratio is 7:1. We can extrapolate it to the rest of the world.

PS5 Disk = 9,804
PS5 Digital = 1,390
Ratio = 7.05
I don't think you can extrapolate like that. You also need to compare against the % of digital games sold per region.

Any company would ship fewer digital only consoles to a market that sells fewer digital copies.

So a 7:1 is not as expected as you may think
 

adamsapple

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Sony is just playing dirty and using its position to ensure that at least COD remains multiplatform -- not just by Microsoft's own commitment but through a binding order by the FTC.

Bonus points if they can ensure that COD does not join Gamepass, hence the above statement (which isn't wholly accurate either). GP does not have a 60-70% share of the global subscription services market; we know that because Sony's own PS+ commands twice the number of subscribers.

If I were to guess, they based this data on this presentation by Microsoft.

https://ibb.co/Rb36y1P

As you can see, this does not include PS+, which inflates Gamepass's market share. Also, this does not include Asian markets, which would include Nintendo Switch Online and push Gmaepass's share even lower.

This way Sony can avoid liability of presenting "incorrect" data (because the numbers came from Microsoft), while still making a case that COD should not join Gamepass on day one, completely eliminating Xbox's huge competitive advantage, basically rendering the Activision acquisition useless (to a large extent).


You hit the first sentence spot on. This is pretty much nothing but underhanded tactics. They're essentially whining about the prospect of losing CoD as a multi platform game while on the other hand making sure games like FFXVI don't go multi platform.

But it's also a bit of a slap to their own studios that they're openly admitting nothing they have can match Call of Duty.

I can't imagine Naughty Dogs, Insomniac etc are pleased hearing comments like that from their corporate HQ.
 
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ethomaz

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Yes, but PS+ is a direct competitor to Gamepass.

Sony is just being coy here, and rightly so. I'd do that, too, if just making my competitor bigger than what it is in a room full of suits (not public marketing) nullifies the competitive advantage that they are trying to gain by spending $70 billion. It's smart.
PS+ existed for several years and it was never the direct competition of Gamepass… it was the direct competition of Live Gold.

Said that if you look the replies what revamp Sony did with PS++ and PS+++ (that are the direct competition of Gamepass) didn’t have market share because it was barely launched.

PS+ is a subscription to play online where you get 2-4 games per month to play… it is not a subscription service.
 

Heisenberg007

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You hit the first sentence spot on. This is pretty much nothing but underhanded tactics. They're essentially whining about the prospect of losing CoD as a multi platform game while on the other hand making sure games like FFXVI don't go multi platform.

But it's also a bit of a slap to their own studios that they're openly admitting nothing they have can match Call of Duty.

I can't imagine Naughty Dogs, Insomniac etc are pleased hearing comments like that from their corporate HQ.
I don't think it means anything because these comments are not for the general public. At best, only a few thousand hardcore forum members and enthusiasts would see these comments. More than 95% of PlayStation's audience will never ever find out about these comments, so the potential loss is minimum.

On the other hand, the potential gain is immense. Imagine if the FTC decides that Microsoft cannot put COD day one on GP because that's an unfair advantage that Microsoft literally purchased? That'd be a huge victory for Sony and a massive blowback to Microsoft.

That's what Sony is hoping for here, and these "statements" (which aren't necessarily true) are a means to that end. Sony/PS/Naughty Dog/Insomniac are all on the same page here. They know what the Sony execs and lawyers are doing.
 

Heisenberg007

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PS+ existed for several years and it was never the direct competition of Gamepass… it was the direct competition of Live Gold.

Said that if you look the replies what revamp Sony did with PS++ and PS+++ (that are the direct competition of Gamepass) didn’t have market share because it was barely launched.

PS+ is a subscription to play online where you get 2-4 games per month to play… it is not a subscription service.
The Gamepass sub is built upon Xbox Live Gold. Even in that chart, you can see it says "Gamepass (all services included)" which means the 60% share also includes XBLG users.
 
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ethomaz

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The Gamepass sub is built upon Xbox Live Gold. Even in that chart, you can see it says "Gamepass (all services included)" which means the 60% share also includes XBLG users.
That graphic is nothing to do with what Sony said.

All services means Ultimate, Console and PC.
 

Gods&Monsters

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But it's also a bit of a slap to their own studios that they're openly admitting nothing they have can match Call of Duty.

I can't imagine Naughty Dogs, Insomniac etc are pleased hearing comments like that from their corporate HQ.
They never mentioned their own studios. They said 3rd-parties like EA, Take 2 and Epic. Maybe you should read the whole thing instead of only the title. It's a basic fact anyway. No one is angry about that comment besides Xbox fans.

If it was so easy to make yearly CODs all the publishers would do it. Even Ubisoft stopped the yearly Ass Creed because it was too much.
 
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Hobbygaming

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I don't know about that man, did you see what Sony had to say about it recently ? They're legit scared and admit themselves they can't match game pass for a bunch of years.

This isn't any fanboy drivel, this is official communique from Sony.


NkIlIJs.png
😂😂😂 I don't see how you got "Sony is scared" from this statement. They're still saying what they've always said, which is that Gamepass will hurt the quality of games. Yes, they still want COD revenue, who wouldn't

And 60 - 70 percent of the gaming subscription market still pales in comparison to how much consoles sell

PS5 console sales are already about to catch Gamepass sub numbers by next year
 
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I think they won't hold any stock, storage is a cost specially with a quicly rising inflation in many countries. I think they'll keep producing and shipping asap all the units they can. Which I think in Q2 won't be a lot more than in the previous Q2, but in the case of Q3 I think they'll be able to achieve a huge increase YoY.

Okay, so your expectations for Q2 are in relation to Q2 from FY2021 after all, cool. I initially thought it was in terms of Q1 FY2022 to Q2 FY2022.

I don't recall how many units Sony sold Q2 FY2021 but I'm going to guess it was something like 3 million?

I don't know about that man, did you see what Sony had to say about it recently ? They're legit scared and admit themselves they can't match game pass for a bunch of years.

This isn't any fanboy drivel, this is official communique from Sony.


NkIlIJs.png

Sony's just being coy and playing a victim role in this instance. Behind-the-scenes I'm pretty sure they have an understanding of where GamePass revenue is at (what probably really matters for them) and probably realize it's not very high all things considered, probably a reason they revamped PS+ instead by rolling PS Now into it rather than launch yet another subscription service.

Also a caveat here being in Sony's case they would have to justify Day 1 in a sub service with their marquee games retaining the budgets they do, the scope and scale that they provide, etc., which is currently not possible. The numbers simply don't work out. Again just look at GamePass; Halo Infinite supposedly has a $500 million budget (although a lot of that is for future content and marketing, maybe engine revamps too) and yet we still have not gotten GamePass revenue figures.

So for them, it would take a long time, even with big investments, to create something rivaling GamePass in terms of Day 1 1P games into the service, considering the type of marquee 1P games Sony makes and the budgets typically involved with them, and the amount of revenue the service would have to consistently generate to make up for any lost upfront sales (and also cover the typical marketing expenses Sony puts towards said games).

It's a much lower requirement with Microsoft because they don't make a lot of 1P games with budgets like a HFW or GOW, and they don't do a lot of game-specific advertising in traditional spaces either. Not only that, most of the 1P games they make don't really sell huge numbers to begin with, these days. FH5 and Halo Infinite are probably around 2 - 3 million LTD so far at most, each.

I don't think you can extrapolate like that. You also need to compare against the % of digital games sold per region.

Any company would ship fewer digital only consoles to a market that sells fewer digital copies.

So a 7:1 is not as expected as you may think

So globally then would you consider the split is closer to a 5:1, 4:1 or a 3:1?

You hit the first sentence spot on. This is pretty much nothing but underhanded tactics. They're essentially whining about the prospect of losing CoD as a multi platform game while on the other hand making sure games like FFXVI don't go multi platform.

But it's also a bit of a slap to their own studios that they're openly admitting nothing they have can match Call of Duty.

I can't imagine Naughty Dogs, Insomniac etc are pleased hearing comments like that from their corporate HQ.

Again, Sony's just playing coy. Financially speaking, few of their studios have made anything generating COD's revenue, that's just straight-up true. Only Gran Turismo and maybe Spiderman come close. But I don't see how ND, SSM etc. would be offended by that; the same could be said for virtually every other developer in the industry outside of maybe Nintendo, and that's really only due to Pokemon.

In terms of quality, it really comes down to specific things. COD's seen as one of the premier FPS games on the market, hands-down, and it's no secret that historically speaking Sony's teams have struggled to make FPS games the majority consider on the level of COD. The Resistance & Killzone series might have had good entries and visually matched or bettered COD at the time of certain releases but they simply didn't have the draw. Same can be said of MANY other FPS games in the industry though so by that metric they aren't wrong.

In terms of quality when it comes to other metrics, though, it's highly debatable COD is among the top in some of those areas and many of Sony's studios easily surpass them in such areas. But that's not really what they're going by when discussing COD, ABK and this acquisition, so there's no point focusing on that. Sony aren't belittling the talent of their teams or 3P partners, they're just telling it how it is.

There's no other FPS on the market with the brand power or gameplay consistency (that appeals to the masses) as COD, and it'd take a lot of effort & some luck for another FPS to rival or surpass it in those areas let alone become the new dominant FPS on the market. That's the angle Sony are focusing their talking points on, for strategic reasons.
 

Heisenberg007

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Again, Sony's just playing coy. Financially speaking, few of their studios have made anything generating COD's revenue, that's just straight-up true. Only Gran Turismo and maybe Spiderman come close. But I don't see how ND, SSM etc. would be offended by that; the same could be said for virtually every other developer in the industry outside of maybe Nintendo, and that's really only due to Pokemon.

In terms of quality, it really comes down to specific things. COD's seen as one of the premier FPS games on the market, hands-down, and it's no secret that historically speaking Sony's teams have struggled to make FPS games the majority consider on the level of COD. The Resistance & Killzone series might have had good entries and visually matched or bettered COD at the time of certain releases but they simply didn't have the draw. Same can be said of MANY other FPS games in the industry though so by that metric they aren't wrong.

In terms of quality when it comes to other metrics, though, it's highly debatable COD is among the top in some of those areas and many of Sony's studios easily surpass them in such areas. But that's not really what they're going by when discussing COD, ABK and this acquisition, so there's no point focusing on that. Sony aren't belittling the talent of their teams or 3P partners, they're just telling it how it is.

There's no other FPS on the market with the brand power or gameplay consistency (that appeals to the masses) as COD, and it'd take a lot of effort & some luck for another FPS to rival or surpass it in those areas let alone become the new dominant FPS on the market. That's the angle Sony are focusing their talking points on, for strategic reasons.
Even if Sony honestly believes otherwise, they'd never say it. That'd be extremely stupid of them.

What is their goal right now with the MS/ABK acquisition? (1) the acquisition doesn't go through, or (2) the acquisition does go through but COD and other big IPs remain multiplatform, and MS does not create a competitive advantage for them by offering COD on Gamepass day one.

How can Sony achieve that goal? By over-hyping the importance of COD and making it a bigger deal, i.e., COD is a category on its own, no franchise or IP rivals it, no other studio can make it, it moves consoles, etc.

Imagine if Sony just showed big dick energy and said, "COD is meh. Our studios are better. We can make a COD whenever we want to."

The FTC would be like, "oh, then there is no problem with MS buying and locking COD, we guess. Let's finalize and close the acquisition, and MS can do whatever they want: make COD exclusive, put it on GP day one, or whatever. It's not like that'll hurt their competition at all."
 
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