MS and Gaming Revenue Overview

KiryuRealty

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28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
Damn it's so weird.

Series S hasn't sold what they would have expected, and has been widely available since launch and heavily discounted for much of that time.

But without it MS would be way behind Playstation in terms of volume of sales.

Basically are they doing any better than last gen given that they have a ~$250 console available?
Despite their spin, they aren't doing appreciably better. People forget that Bone lost momentum almost overnight and 360 had huge supply issues post-launch that lasted half a year. Easier to sell faster when the other consoles in your history either took forever to build momentum (Xbox), had massive quality control issues that basically stopped shipments for months (360) and were such a raging disappointment that people just plain didn't want them other than the few hardcores they hadn't managed to alienate completely.

They aren't offering what the consumer wants. Plain and simple.

Not including a disc drive in the Series S was a huge fuckup. Can't sell it as a cheap backwards-compatibility model to lower-end consumers and markets if it can't play disc games. I have personally seen people in stores ask about that issue and decide they aren't buying based on that one criteria, because they just wanted something new to play their discs because their last Xbox is dead. The insanely expensive memory expansion doesn't help either. Buy a Series S and the storage module and you could have bought a Series X, which has more storage!
 

Rivet

Active member
25 Jun 2022
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Oh look, their new consoles are already half dying. -13 % in hardware sales so soon in a new gen is abysmal. And it comes after Game Pass missing its growth target twice by a good margin.

Looks like Game Pass won't change the world after all and people ultimately didn't care about having dozens of mostly mediocre games to play, like a lot of us predicted day one. Like I said, gaming is very time constrained, not money constrained. Most people play 2 or 3 games per year, which means a subscription model doesn't make that much sense in gaming. Why not just buy the games you want to play instead, or just play your 3 favorite GaaS ?

As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now. Game Pass was an all-in bet for their gaming division. If it doesn't work, and it definitely seems it doesn't, then with Bethesda and the tons of studios they now have, that's a lot of people you have to pay every month with zero hope of reaching huge profit one day, which was the only reason MS was building Game Pass to begin with.

Things could unravel pretty fast now, especially if Actibliz deal is blocked.
 
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KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
6,646
8,165
Where it’s at.
Oh look, their new consoles are already half dying. -13 % in hardware sales so soon in a new gen is abysmal. I wonder how they'll damage control that this time.

Looks like Game Pass won't change the world after all and people ultimately didn't care about having dozens of mostly mediocre games to play, like a lot of us predicted day one. Like I said, gaming is very time constrained, not money constrained. Most people play 2 or 3 games per year, which means a subscription model doesn't make that much sense in gaming.

As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now. Game Pass was an all-in bet for their gaming division. If it doesn't work, and it definitely seems it doesn't, then with Bethesda and the tons of studios, that's a lot of people you have to pay every month with zero hope of reaching huge profit one day, which was the only reason MS was building Game Pass to begin with. Things could unravel faster than most people think now.
Sell off the Xbox brand?

Who the fuck would want it?

After these numbers, it would be like Ford trying to revive the Pinto brand or find a buyer for that model name.
 
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Bryank75

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Oh look, their new consoles are already half dying. -13 % in hardware sales so soon in a new gen is abysmal. And it comes after Game Pass missing its growth target twice by a good margin.

Looks like Game Pass won't change the world after all and people ultimately didn't care about having dozens of mostly mediocre games to play, like a lot of us predicted day one. Like I said, gaming is very time constrained, not money constrained. Most people play 2 or 3 games per year, which means a subscription model doesn't make that much sense in gaming.

As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now. Game Pass was an all-in bet for their gaming division. If it doesn't work, and it definitely seems it doesn't, then with Bethesda and the tons of studios, that's a lot of people you have to pay every month with zero hope of reaching huge profit one day, which was the only reason MS was building Game Pass to begin with. Things could unravel faster than most people think now, especially if Actibliz deal is blocked.

Rivet! Good to see you!

Also, despite some on Twitter trying to explain this performance away using the guidance.... most on Installbase and most serious analysts admit that the lower hardware sales are a big red flag.

I also think Series S has to go...time to focus on Series X.

I have a feeling most GP growth is coming from PC and offering your best on another platform for almost free, that can hurt your platform...that could be hurting the value proposition of Xbox along with sow few exclusives.
 
D

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Series S hasn't sold what they would have expected, and has been widely available since launch and heavily discounted for much of that time.

But without it MS would be way behind Playstation in terms of volume of sales.
I think MS would be in a better position without the S. All it did was fracture the user base and split Microsoft in 2. Not only will R&D costs be higher, but so will production costs. In mass manufacturing, economies of scale is king and one tweak to the process can save millions.

Add that to having to make multiple version of games, it isn't just a slider that devs use, and the cost of making the S outweighs what it has brought in. MS could have even had the option to take a hit with the X during the PS5 stock shortages, rather than taking the hit on the S. It could have swung things in MS' favour a little better.

But the damage is done. Nothing short of killing the One family and the S will save MS.

Edit: This will only add fuel to the fire of making ES6 and Starfield multi platform. I've always been in the multi plat/timed exclusive camp, but MS cannot ignore that sweet sweet PS5 money
 

Satoru

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Imagine having a drop in sales when your competition keeps increasing their numbers. Just goes to show how poor the offering is.
 

ethomaz

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That doesn't look good but know new already after the lackbuster NPD.

That put the biggest claim that people keep doubting.... Exclusive releases driver sales.
Xbox is bleeding with the lack of first-party or exclusive third-party releases.
 
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As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now.
I've heard rumours that Disney is interested in entering the gaming market. I'm not sure about hardware, but a Disney+ offering games and media content is rumoured to be happening.

It wouldn't shock me if Disney came in and swept up the Xbox department before anyone else had a chance. Microsoft could always save face and keep 'gamepass' on the disney box
 

daniel5043

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Rivet! Good to see you!

Also, despite some on Twitter trying to explain this performance away using the guidance.... most on Installbase and most serious analysts admit that the lower hardware sales are a big red flag.

I also think Series S has to go...time to focus on Series X.

I have a feeling most GP growth is coming from PC and offering your best on another platform for almost free, that can hurt your platform...that could be hurting the value proposition of Xbox along with sow few exclusives.
The amount of PC market focused games they had on game pass you hope they increased subscription numbers on pc
 

KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
Rivet! Good to see you!

Also, despite some on Twitter trying to explain this performance away using the guidance.... most on Installbase and most serious analysts admit that the lower hardware sales are a big red flag.

I also think Series S has to go...time to focus on Series X.

I have a feeling most GP growth is coming from PC and offering your best on another platform for almost free, that can hurt your platform...that could be hurting the value proposition of Xbox along with sow few exclusives.
They could probably stop producing Series S today and still have them stinking up the shelves at retail for five years.
 

Rivet

Active member
25 Jun 2022
110
292
Rivet! Good to see you!

Also, despite some on Twitter trying to explain this performance away using the guidance.... most on Installbase and most serious analysts admit that the lower hardware sales are a big red flag.

I also think Series S has to go...time to focus on Series X.

I have a feeling most GP growth is coming from PC and offering your best on another platform for almost free, that can hurt your platform...that could be hurting the value proposition of Xbox along with sow few exclusives.

Hi Bryank ! Yes, HW sales are the big red flag so soon in a new gen. I agree the lack of great exclusives definitely hurt them.

It looks to me a lot of GP growrh depends on Starfield success now... That game should definitely bring subscribers, but why would they stay on the long run ?
 

Bodycount611

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1 Jul 2022
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we may very well be in the last year of the xbox console being a thing, yeah. I expect them to tacitly announce they are exiting the console manufacturing business by phasing out Series X (already seems to be happening) while continuing to offer the Series S as a cheap casual console option for a few more years.

Gamepass will continue on, and they'll try to make deals to get their current projects that show sales potential (like starfield) onto competing consoles.

With Bethesda under their wing, they can continue on as a 3rd party publisher, much like Sega.

Aside from Bethesda, their first party doesn't seem to be valuable to anyone, not even themselves. Expecting more layoffs there.

---
Advice for those currently invested in the Xbox ecosystem:

Overall, if I had any money invested into the xbox ecosystem right now, i'd try to recoup as much as possible in 2023, before the shit hits the fan, so to speak.

1. Sell your hardware on Ebay et al before it loses the majority of its value.
2. Try to diversify and invest in another ecosystem, be it PS/Nintendo/PC before Xbox goes bust and you lose everything
3. Cancel any active subscriptions tied to Xbox, refund what digital content you can.
4. Start saving for a different platform if need be, if you wish to continue gaming post-xbox.

It's going to be tough, but folks who bought a Dramcast remember the process well. Xbox folks, you're not alone in this. These things happen in this business. Xbox has had a very rough decade, and it comes with consequences.

---
On Xbox transitioning into a 3rd party publisher:

Unfortunately for Series, it's on track to do worse than Xbox One.
With a downwards trajectory, no parent company will continue to take loss after loss. A healthy business will cut, in fact IT MUST CUT to appease shareholders and preserve the value on the stock market.
Unfortunately, Xbox is eating into MS's bottom line.

just my educated guess, I suppose, but things aren't looking good. We are in the final days of the Xbox console, sad to say.
 
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Sircaw

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20 Jun 2022
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Oh look, their new consoles are already half dying. -13 % in hardware sales so soon in a new gen is abysmal. And it comes after Game Pass missing its growth target twice by a good margin.

Looks like Game Pass won't change the world after all and people ultimately didn't care about having dozens of mostly mediocre games to play, like a lot of us predicted day one. Like I said, gaming is very time constrained, not money constrained. Most people play 2 or 3 games per year, which means a subscription model doesn't make that much sense in gaming. Why not just buy the games you want to play instead, or just play your 3 favorite GaaS ?

As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now. Game Pass was an all-in bet for their gaming division. If it doesn't work, and it definitely seems it doesn't, then with Bethesda and the tons of studios they now have, that's a lot of people you have to pay every month with zero hope of reaching huge profit one day, which was the only reason MS was building Game Pass to begin with.

Things could unravel pretty fast now, especially if Actibliz deal is blocked.
Rivet you big ball of Furry fluff, it's good to see you.

Hope you are well, I wonder what brought you out of the woodwork, :love:

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