[PCgamer] AMD's gaming graphics business looks like it's in terminal decline

anonpuffs

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There's no getting round it, the Radeon RX 7000 GPU family looks like a disaster.


I hate to say I told you so. But back in October I pondered whether AMD might give up on gaming graphics chips for PCs. Now, AMD has released it's latest financial results and things only look more ugly.
For the first quarter of 2024, AMD said that its gaming revenues were down a massive 48% compared to the same period in 2023. While some of that fall reflects an inevitable cyclical downturn in revenues from games consoles—put simply, the consoles have been out for a while and sales are beginning to flag—AMD also conceded that "lower AMD Radeon GPU sales" were also to blame.

What's more, even AMD says things will get worse before they have any chance of getting better. "Demand has been quite weak," AMD's CFO Jean Hu said, "we actually think the second half will be lower than first half. That's basically how we're looking at this year for the gaming business."
In fact, the only good news AMD could come with regarding gaming products was that they were quite low margin, so selling fewer of them would mean AMD's overall average margins would improve on account of the shrinking gaming business. "Gaming's gross margin is lower than our company average. So overall, it will help the mix on the gross margin side," Hu said. Ouch.
Meanwhile, games consoles aren't looking all that healthy, either. Microsoft says Xbox sales are down by 31% for its most recent reported quarter and the company's future expectations for console sales are pretty pessimistic, too.

Games, of course, are becoming super expensive to develop at the same time as sales of hardware are shrinking. All told, there's a bit of a broader gaming industry crunch ongoing.

Rumour has it the next Xbox may be intentionally more niche, akin to Microsoft's Steam Deck, something for the keenest Xbox fans rather than an attempt at a mass market platform. That's hardly good news for AMD revenues given that Xbox has been based on pure AMD hardware for multiple generations.

Maybe Sony will do something spectacular with the upcoming PS5 Pro or PS6 to revitalise the console market. But it's hard to come to any other conclusion than a fairly pessimistic one regarding AMD's medium term prospects in gaming graphics, be that on the PC or console.

With all that in mind, rumours that AMD has ditched all plans for high-end members of its upcoming next-gen RDNA 4 GPU range make sense. Why bother with all the investment when nobody is going to buy the GPUs anyway, especially now that cryptocurrency miners can't be relied on to mop up a whole load of cards?

And if you question the idea that nobody will buy AMD GPUs, well you only have to look at Valve's Steam hardware survey data. For sure, it's not the perfect data set. But it shows Nvidia cards being used by over 75% of gamers and AMD on about 15%.
Of course, that includes loads of older GPUs. In fact, you have to go to position eight in the list of most popular GPUs on Steam to find one from AMD or Nvidia's current generation of graphics cards (it's an Nvidia GPU, obviously).

Oh, and in terms of the most popular individually identified AMD GPU (as opposed to a generic AMD Radeon entry), you have to go all the way down to 31st place. The really horrifying fact is that, of the top 100 GPUs, the only AMD current-gen product that makes the list is the Radeon RX 7900 XTX.

The RX 7800 XT, 7700 XT, 7600 XT and 7600 simply do not appear. So, yeah, you can argue the toss over how accurate the Steam survey really is. But it's very hard to imagine that the Radeon RX 7000 Series is anything but a retail disaster when it's making pretty much zero impact on surveyed gamers on the biggest and most important PC gaming platform.

The thing is, AMD's previous Radeon RX 6000-series was actually very strong competition for Nvidia's Ampere generation of RTX 3000 GPUs in technical terms. But it had pretty much zero impact itself in terms of improving AMD's PC gaming graphics market share.

The Radeon 7000 family has been quite a bit less compelling versus Nvidia's RTX 4000-series GPUs. And so it's hardly surprising to find already poor sales falling further.

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quest4441

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Funny how intel CPU's are falling behind AMD but in the GPU business nVidia is as usual running circles around them. If by chance consoles start using nvidia chipsets in the future this company is done for
 
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anonpuffs

anonpuffs

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Funny how intel CPU's are falling behind AMD but in the GPU business nVidia is as usual running circles around them. If by chance consoles start using nvidia chipsets in the future this company is done for
Will never happen, nvidia is too greedy. Switch 2 is already $400 and it's not even as strong as a ps4 pro
 

Systemshock2023

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AMD should start asking Sony and MS for royalties on software and subscriptions sold. They have them by the balls. Without a supplier, MS bails of the console market and what is Sony going to do? They can't go back develop custom made chips anymore, they don't have that kind of money.
 

Banana

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Will never happen, nvidia is too greedy. Switch 2 is already $400 and it's not even as strong as a ps4 pro
Perhaps Nintendo doesn't want a handheld the size of a ROG Ally with a battery that lasts an hour.
AMD should start asking Sony and MS for royalties on software and subscriptions sold. They have them by the balls. Without a supplier, MS bails of the console market and what is Sony going to do? They can't go back develop custom made chips anymore, they don't have that kind of money.
They could go back to Nvidia I guess? Or maybe even Intel. If they did go to Nvidia they would either need to convert to ARM (not going to happen until/if PC makes the ARM switch), or consoles will have separate CPU/GPU like they used to (more expensive).
 

Systemshock2023

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Perhaps Nintendo doesn't want a handheld the size of a ROG Ally with a battery that lasts an hour.

They could go back to Nvidia I guess? Or maybe even Intel. If they did go to Nvidia they would either need to convert to ARM (not going to happen until/if PC makes the ARM switch), or consoles will have separate CPU/GPU like they used to (more expensive).

If they do they risk 2 generations of HW BC. Nvidia is expensive and Intel chips run hot. That's why I said AMD kind of has them by the balls.
 
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anonpuffs

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If they do they risk 2 generations of HW BC. Nvidia is expensive and Intel chips run hot. That's why I said AMD kind of has them by the balls.
The other choice would be to go ARM with qualcomm.

Not a terrible choice given it instantly makes compatibility with mobile easier, and mobile is one market every game publisher and platform holder wants a piece of.
 

Polyh3dron

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Isn't the rumour that Microsoft are going back to Nvidia?
If they want to stay with the whole APU configuration, they can't, at least if they want to stay on x86.

Nvidia doesn't have a x86 license to make x86 CPUs. They could do an ARM-based APU, but the only real existing hardware they have that combines a GPU and CPU is either the Tegra, like what the Switch uses, or the Grace Hopper which is meant for data centers and is obscenely expensive.

AMD really is the only game in town for X86-based APUs. Intel is looking to compete but their entire GPU situation has been an absolute shitshow.
 
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xollowsob

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If they want to stay with the whole APU configuration, they can't, at least if they want to stay on x86.

Nvidia doesn't have a x86 license to make x86 CPUs. They could do an ARM-based APU, but the only real existing hardware they have that combines a GPU and CPU is either the Tegra, like what the Switch uses, or the Grace Hopper which is meant for data centers and is obscenely expensive.

AMD really is the only game in town for X86-based APUs. Intel is looking to compete but their entire GPU situation has been an absolute shitshow.
Other than BC, would it be a major issue if MS move away from X86?

Would Nvidia give them any hardware advantage? Sony and AMD are cosying up and denying MS certain software tech that Nvidia have as standard.
It would be a good excuse for MS to wipe the slate clean as well.
 

Evil Aloy

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AMD's gpus are shit. Sony should go to Nvidia for the next Playstation, I would pay $100 more for a PS6 with Nvidia graphics.
 

Polyh3dron

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Other than BC, would it be a major issue if MS move away from X86?

Would Nvidia give them any hardware advantage? Sony and AMD are cosying up and denying MS certain software tech that Nvidia have as standard.
It would be a good excuse for MS to wipe the slate clean as well.
Nvidia doesn't have a ready-made system-on-a-chip (SOC) that would be good for high end gaming. They don't have much incentive right now to get into that sector of the market either, because their AI hardware is making them ungodly sums of money, and they can use the same silicon that isn't quite as well-binned as the stuff selected for the AI hardware for their gaming GPU dies on their PC graphics cards, for which there is already quite a mature engineering and development pipeline.

The margins they could get from producing high end CPU/GPU combo boards targeted for game consoles that would have much in common with their Grace Hopper AI hardware would be way too slim to justify all of the required R&D that would go into it. Until the AI bubble pops, the juice would not be worth the squeeze for Nvidia and even when there was no AI sector to compete with, Nvidia was, by all accounts, an absolute PITA as a console hardware partner for Sony and Microsoft over two different respective generations for the console manufacturers.

All of that is before even getting to the backward compatibility hurdle as well.

Apple had their top engineers make a great emulation layer called Rosetta 2 to make x86 software work on their new ARM-based hardware, but Microsoft has not had anywhere near the same level of success in any kind of attempt to get ARM-based Windows PCs working. It looks like it's an incredibly difficult thing to pull off, and Microsoft does not appear to be up to the challenge. As for Sony, they won't even do PS2 or PS3 software emulation on PS5, so good luck.

Consoles staying with AMD's APUs makes a lot more sense for all relevant parties, and this does mean that consoles will miss out on the bleeding edge innovations that Nvidia has introduced us to in the past few years, like their raytracing acceleration being light years ahead of AMD's, the machine learning-assisted DLSS being leaps and bounds ahead of AMD's laughable FSR wannabe trick, and Nvidia's frame generation coupled with their Reflex latency reduction tech makes AMD's attempt at a similar tech look like one of those cheap late 2000s TVs doing their frame interpolation/soap opera effect postprocessing.

Nvidia knows how to make 4 things well:
1. AI hardware like the Grace Hopper unit that can make ungodly sums of money
2. Gaming PCIe GPUs that can use up the scraps unsuitable for #1
3. Workstation GPUs that can sell for five figures
4. Shitty Tegra SOCs for Nintendo

There's little to no incentive for Nvidia to branch out from there.
 

ToTTenTranz

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1 - I don’t get why the guy's worried with AMD GPUs now, when their marketshare just started rising.

2 - AMD spending one generation on mid-range never did them any harm, on the contrary. Last time they did so was with Polaris where they gained marketshare from 20 to 30%.

3 - High end gaming GPUs haven't been going to gamers in years. Until 2022 they were going to miners, and now they're going to AI services and hobbyists. The proportion of RTX 4090 owners actually playing games is what, 10%?
Sure, halo products have good margins and they're great to dominate the charts and have fanboys raging in their favor in forums or give Alex Battaglia ammunition for his shllling, but what AMD needs right now is mind/marketshare through higher value-for-money.

4 - Since the consoles set the baseline for videogame requirements and quality and they're both based on 10-12 TFLOPs RDNA2 GPUs for a 4K output, the practical return for having GPUs much more powerful than a RX6700XT is going down.
Most GPUs above the 4070 Ti and 7800XT are just hitting CPU bottlenecks at 1440p + upscaling unless the reviewer turns on certain nvidia-sponsored advertisements ratracing effects that kill performance for an irrelevant IQ gain. PC gamers won't have any real reason to go much higher than 4070Ti/7800XT, anytime soon.





AMD's gpus are shit. Sony should go to Nvidia for the next Playstation, I would pay $100 more for a PS6 with Nvidia graphics.
Because the PS3's GPU was so much better than the X360's, right? Never occurred to you that Sony and Microsoft never went back to nvidia for a reason?

Fear not, loyal warrior. You can still just play with your Switch. Or wait a year to see how much better the Switch 2 is than everything else.
 

Evil Aloy

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1 - I don’t get why the guy's worried with AMD GPUs now, when their marketshare just started rising.

2 - AMD spending one generation on mid-range never did them any harm, on the contrary. Last time they did so was with Polaris where they gained marketshare from 20 to 30%.

3 - High end gaming GPUs haven't been going to gamers in years. Until 2022 they were going to miners, and now they're going to AI services and hobbyists. The proportion of RTX 4090 owners actually playing games is what, 10%?
Sure, halo products have good margins and they're great to dominate the charts and have fanboys raging in their favor in forums or give Alex Battaglia ammunition for his shllling, but what AMD needs right now is mind/marketshare through higher value-for-money.

4 - Since the consoles set the baseline for videogame requirements and quality and they're both based on 10-12 TFLOPs RDNA2 GPUs for a 4K output, the practical return for having GPUs much more powerful than a RX6700XT is going down.
Most GPUs above the 4070 Ti and 7800XT are just hitting CPU bottlenecks at 1440p + upscaling unless the reviewer turns on certain nvidia-sponsored advertisements ratracing effects that kill performance for an irrelevant IQ gain. PC gamers won't have any real reason to go much higher than 4070Ti/7800XT, anytime soon.






Because the PS3's GPU was so much better than the X360's, right? Never occurred to you that Sony and Microsoft never went back to nvidia for a reason?

Fear not, loyal warrior. You can still just play with your Switch. Or wait a year to see how much better the Switch 2 is than everything else.

What the hell are you talking about? Who cares about the Switch?