[PCgamer] AMD's gaming graphics business looks like it's in terminal decline

ethomaz

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Intel will continue to fall behind, the ryzen series was a complete game changer when it was released. Intel is too expensive for what they are offering and AMD is honestly much improved in the thermals department now than before and offer better performance for similar prices.
In tech yeap..
In Market Share things are not changing that much… Intel had a small rise lately but that is all.

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-client.png


BTW these are the shares for AMD in x86 market:

amd-market-share-q1-2024.png
 
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anonpuffs

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Well I posted wrong data :(
It is more 70+% Intel / 20+% AMD.

Last quarter.

amd-market-share-q1-2024.png
In the DIY space the numbers are flipped. There's a reason why client revenue soared in latest AMD quarterlies vs Intel which had a modest gain in comparison.

The reason the share of x86 CPU is 80+% for Intel is due to prebuilt/OEM configurations like laptops and low performance desktops for corporate use (also legacy stuff). However that share is rapidly declining. You can see this in the fact that in both server and consumer side the unit share has gone up 5% YoY.

intelquarterly.jpg
amdquarterly.jpg

You can see this market share flipping - compared to 2023, AMD's datacenter revenue was ~45% of intel's. as of q1 2024 it's now 78%. At this rate AMD will surpass 50% revenue share of new sales sometime this year.

Now look at the client segment. That's laptops, prebuilt desktops, direct to consumer CPUs. AMD grew 85% YoY while Intel grew 31%. The reason why this trend is slow is because the biggest purchasers are not DIY, but corporations, which have a lot of institutional inertia. But it's changing. In 5 years, if Intel doesn't turn things around, AMD will be pretty close to 50% market share.
 
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Polyh3dron

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I've never heard of this. Is there some place where I can read more about it?
Here's a blog post about how George Hotz aka GeoHot was able to hack the hypervisor present on the PS3:


Here's information about the PS5's hypervisor from PS5DevWiki:


As for PS4, can't find much info confirming or denying a hypervisor on it.
 
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ethomaz

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In the DIY space the numbers are flipped. There's a reason why client revenue soared in latest AMD quarterlies vs Intel which had a modest gain in comparison.

The reason the share of x86 CPU is 80+% for Intel is due to prebuilt/OEM configurations like laptops and low performance desktops for corporate use (also legacy stuff). However that share is rapidly declining. You can see this in the fact that in both server and consumer side the unit share has gone up 5% YoY.

View attachment 5002
View attachment 5003

You can see this market share flipping - compared to 2023, AMD's datacenter revenue was ~45% of intel's. as of q1 2024 it's now 78%. At this rate AMD will surpass 50% revenue share of new sales sometime this year.

Now look at the client segment. That's laptops, prebuilt desktops, direct to consumer CPUs. AMD grew 85% YoY while Intel grew 31%. The reason why this trend is slow is because the biggest purchasers are not DIY, but corporations, which have a lot of institutional inertia. But it's changing. In 5 years, if Intel doesn't turn things around, AMD will be pretty close to 50% market share.
This is what I have for Servers only and I can't see it reaching 50% anytime soon...

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-server.png


Mobile:

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-mobile.png


Desktop:

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-desktops.png
 
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anonpuffs

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This is what I have for Servers only and I can't see it reaching 50% anytime soon...

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-server.png


Mobile:

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-mobile.png


Desktop:

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-desktops.png
Is that % market share in existing hardware? Then that's going to be impacted by sales from 5+ years ago as the hardware update cycles are much longer. Some places still use hardware from 20+ years ago.
 

ethomaz

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Is that % market share in existing hardware? Then that's going to be impacted by sales from 5+ years ago as the hardware update cycles are much longer. Some places still use hardware from 20+ years ago.
That is sales from the period (quarter).
CPUs sold in previous quarters are not counted... it uses the data given by AMD and Intel.

For example the example of last quarter I posted...
Units Share is based on AMD data.
Revenue Share is an estimated by Mercury... so I didn't take these as very accurate because they calculate based in the avg. price of the CPU sods that could give some small errors.

Look at the 23.9% in the graph for Desktop and this other pic... they are the same.

amd-market-share-q1-2024.png


From 2015 to now AMD grew around 20% in Server market share (they gone from near 1% market share to today 20%)... it is by far the biggest jump they had with Ryzen (2017).
Talking about Desktop only they gone from 9% to 23%... near 15% increase in a decade.

Intel still dominates by a good margin.

BTW this is the overall graph for Market Share quarter by quarter with some missing data because AMD or Intel didn't share all segments in these quarters.
But it gives the overall look... AMD x86 (all CPUs) market share grew from 13% to 20% with Ryzen.

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-client.png


People talks about AMD growing but I only see they grow at begin of Ryzen and after they stagnated... they reached 20% in 2020... reached peak near 2$% in 2022 but dropped again to 15-17% after until grow again to 20% in 2024.

At that pace I have no ideia if they will ever reach 30, 40 or 50% market share at all.
I think if they ever reach 30% they can commemorate with big fireworks.
 
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anonpuffs

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That is sales from the period (quarter).
CPUs sold in previous quarters are not counted... it uses the data given by AMD and Intel.

For example the example of last quarter I posted...
Units Share is based on AMD data.
Revenue Share is an estimated by Mercury... so I didn't take these as very accurate because they calculate based in the avg. price of the CPU sods that could give some small errors.

Look at the 23.9% in the graph for Desktop and this other pic... they are the same.

amd-market-share-q1-2024.png


From 2015 to now AMD grew around 20% in Server market share (they gone from near 1% market share to today 20%)... it is by far the biggest jump they had with Ryzen (2017).
Talking about Desktop only they gone from 9% to 23%... near 15% increase in a decade.

Intel still dominates by a good margin.

BTW this is the overall graph for Market Share quarter by quarter with some missing data because AMD or Intel didn't share all segments in these quarters.
But it gives the overall look... AMD x86 (all CPUs) market share grew from 13% to 20% with Ryzen.

cpu-mkt-shares-q1-2024-mercury-client.png
Again. That's due to large prebuilt computers like Dell, HP, Lenovo still having major contracts with Intel. But the market share is shifting quite a bit, and it will only accelerate. These things take time.
 

ethomaz

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Again. That's due to large prebuilt computers like Dell, HP, Lenovo still having major contracts with Intel. But the market share is shifting quite a bit, and it will only accelerate. These things take time.
It is stagnated to be fair.
Ryzen gives a big boost in 2017 until 2020... after that they reached 23%, dropped to 15%, reached again 20%.
It is stagnated in that range.

If it is due Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc doesn't matter because Server and Mobile are stagnated too.

IMO if AMD do a wrong product in CPU's tech (like happened in the past) then they will drop again to 10% or lower.
Same if AMD find a CPU's tech camp again like happened with Core 2... AMD market share will drop to 10% or lower.

After watching the CPU market for over 20 years the best again could gain having the best CPU was that... 20% market share.
And Intel when have the best CPU they reached near 99% of the market.

Edit - Fixed the server being stagnated.
 
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anonpuffs

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It is stagnated to be fair.
Ryzen gives a big boost in 2017 until 2020... after that they reached 23%, dropped to 15%, reached again 20%.
It is stagnated in that range.

If it is due Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc doesn't matter because Server and Mobile are stagnated too.
We don't have the new product cycle yet this year. Also server is nowhere near stagnant lol. You can see this directly in their financial reports, no need for 3rd party estimates.
 

ethomaz

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We don't have the new product cycle yet this year. Also server is nowhere near stagnant lol. You can see this directly in their financial reports, no need for 3rd party estimates.
This is not 3rd-party estimates lol
It is units shares by AMD in their financials reports.

Revenue is 3rd-party estimates.
 
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anonpuffs

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If I said server it is my mistake. Overall (that includes server) is.
But do you realize the peak of server market share for AMD is 23.6% this quarter?
yes and? they are clearly trending upwards. like I said, numbers are reversed and AMD has an 80+% market share in the DIY CPU space, that's usually ahead of the broader market by several years. Intel clearly isn't going anywhere due to legacy clients but they are having problems hitting revenue targets and that's primarily because they're losing sales to AMD.

Also, AMD's unit share in server may only be 23.6% but their revenue share is 33%, which means they are much more profitable in the server space. That's a very healthy sign for their growth.
 

ethomaz

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yes and? they are clearly trending upwards. like I said, numbers are reversed and AMD has an 80+% market share in the DIY CPU space, that's usually ahead of the broader market by several years. Intel clearly isn't going anywhere due to legacy clients but they are having problems hitting revenue targets and that's primarily because they're losing sales to AMD.

Also, AMD's unit share in server may only be 23.6% but their revenue share is 33%, which means they are much more profitable in the server space. That's a very healthy sign for their growth.
I doubt they have 80% market share in DIY CPUs... it doesn't make sense.
The only data I found is Korea and it is 50%.
 
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anonpuffs

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I doubt they have 80% market share in DIY CPUs... it doesn't make sense.
The only data I found is Korea and it is 50%.
Why doesn't it make sense? They make by far the better product and have for about 3 years now.
 

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Intel doesn't dominate shit these days, AMD has almost twice the market cap from Intel now. Before Ryzen (about 7 years ago) AMD CPU were embarrassingly bad and they couldn't even compete in most segments.

AMD turn around is incredible. Even in the GPU market their work is rather impressive, the fact that they are even competitive in so many segments is crazy when going against NVidia, a company that is 10 times their size, with a much stronger brand and R&D budgets.
 

ethomaz

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Intel doesn't dominate shit these days, AMD has almost twice the market cap from Intel now. Before Ryzen (about 7 years ago) AMD CPU were embarrassingly bad and they couldn't even compete in most segments.

AMD turn around is incredible. Even in the GPU market their work is rather impressive, the fact that they are even competitive in so many segments is crazy when going against NVidia, a company that is 10 times their size, with a much stronger brand and R&D budgets.
Intel has around 75-80% of market in any segment you look at.

I have no ideia where you guys find AMD dominates lol
 

ethomaz

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Why doesn't it make sense? They make by far the better product and have for about 3 years now.
Because if that was true AMD Desktop market share should not be ~20%.

I can see some extreme cases with AMD having 50-60% of the DIY like Korea… but overall it should not be that high.

For example in Japan the DIY CPU market in 2022 was 74% Intel / 25% AMD.
 
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