As I remember Druckmann said they were going to show more of TLOU Factions next year. If they show more of an already announced game I think will be Spider-Man 2. Regarding game announcements, if they make one, I think it could be only one of the many PSVR2 launch games that are to be announced: maybe GT7 getting VR support, maybe a Half Life Alyx port or maybe some 2nd party new IP.
Regarding the GoWR State of Play I agree that isn't needed, but they made it for all their main exclusives so I think we'll get one to show its launch trailer and a nice gamaplay footage showing some new moves, mechanics, enemies or areas.
Regarding the showcase, I think in E3 is a good spot. By then I assume they may already have stabilized the supply and would have balanced it with the demand. All the announced games and PC ports will have been released, and the launch window PSVR2 games too, so will only have to show more Spider-Man 2 (if not released in H1 2023) and Wolverine. So will be time to announce stuff, games under development will have had more time to be more completed and also will be good timing to go back to E3, where I assume MS and Nintendo will attend too.