It's amazed me how someone can have the Series X go from 2:1 to being outpaced 2:1 by the Series S without any data to back it up. I'm talking out of my ass with the ratios here, I believe they're actually higher.
That shows a massive change in consumer preference with nothing to back it up, absolutely nothing.
This is just my (albeit limited) personal observation but, I think Welfare's problem is he clings way too closely to Microsoft's own data and doesn't take into account data outside of MS numbers and NPD (or beyond his own biases). Like, maybe they very
rarely reference Sony's or Nintendo's numbers for quick comparison references, but his sources are seemingly limited to MS's own data and NPD.
But we all know how obfuscating Microsoft's data is, how it's intentionally misleading in ways or presented so as you can make a read you feel comfortable with, even if it's wrong. He also rarely ever questions Microsoft's data; I've actually questioned some of Ampere's data a couple of times despite using them as sources when looking into figuring out Xbox sales numbers. And I never limited it to just Ampere; more recently throwing IDG's numbers into things, alongside Microsoft's, Sony's, Nintendo's, NPDs, verified leaks (like the NPD one; too bad it sounds like they won't leak further), Axios, Famitsu, Media Create even crawling back into crates for older data to compare with newer data.
And something really important IMO, is needing to make logical concessions so otherwise conflicting data works. That's something I noticed when looking at Ampere's latest report and the IDG numbers Brad Smith used in his presentation to the EC: there was a contradiction. So, had to find a way to make them work, otherwise if I said discarded Ampere altogether in that case, welp might as well do that going forward. You can't selectively choose when a source is worth using otherwise that's not a reliable source.
Nah, I think in Normieville that ship sailed awhile ago. I think starfield will cater to people who already have an Xbox at this point and people who plan to play it on pc. Last years no show and Ps5s actually being available, tied with a very lucky marketing deal of hog warts being a nextgen only (for now) game sealed this generation imo. It’s like I’ve been saying, Xbox is so irrelevant they may end up diminishing cod by being associated with Xbox.
Yeah. MS missed their chance to capitalize during the mid 2021 - mid/late 2022 period. Not only should Starfield have hit the 11/11/22 date, but Hellblade II should've been ready by early 2022 at latest. Avowed should have been released during that 2021/2022 period. And this is on top of FH5, Flight Sim etc. releasing as they did, and Halo Infinite not turning out to be a wet fart.
I think if MS accomplished that, they would be in a better position right now especially in US & UK. Instead it feels like everything is hinging on Starfield being a surefire hit just to keep Xbox relevant, and them getting ABK to inject some long-term hope back into the brand. These feel like last resorts and for MS's sake they better hope Starfield is a revitalization of their brand perception in the marquee AAA space, and better pray they secure ABK (regardless of concessions) because if either of these things don't go off exquisitely, I don't think Xbox is going to recover.
If ABK deal falls down, xbox in it current form will be gone. I don't know what Microsoft will do with it, but it certainly won't be what it is now.
I think they would still keep the Xbox hardware around but transition it into PC-based hardware as a NUC-style mini PC, and allow it to run full-fat Windows. New Xboxes would be priced higher (more like NUC mini PC systems) to accommodate.
They would bring all 1P content to all relevant devices Day 1, and probably start with porting Xbox exclusives to other systems like PS5 and Switch. They would still have some Windows exclusives like another Flight Sim or Age of Empires 5, so in a way new Xboxes would still have "exclusives", but those would eventually get ported to consoles that can run them, too. I think you'd also see MS bring select games to Android and iOS, such as Pentiment.
They'd probably move Xbox hardware into the Surface team, split Game Pass and xCloud out into a new division for entertainment services, and keep the devs & pubs under Microsoft Gaming.