Today marks the 400th day since Xbox last shared Game Pass subscribers count

[Gediminas]

Let's not forget that gamepass adjacent revenue (mtx, etc) is being counted towards gamepass revenue iirc

2,5B revenue of gamepass. 25M subs. this is abomination.

 

[adamsapple]

This is the key difference. PS+ is just a small part of Sony's offerings and their entire strategy doesn't revolve around it, unlike MS and GamePass.

Sure, that doesn't change anything from what I said tho. One is in a dropping pattern, the other is still getting double digit growth and not "losing subscribers" like the OP would try to fool gullible posters into believing.

Sony is selling record numbers of consoles and large amounts of actual full priced software. PS+ is just a bonus. It went down a little? They don't care because they are, again, setting records for their products.

cool.

If GamePass isn't hitting target numbers it's a massive fail for MS because it's the one thing they are shooting for and they've put all their eggs in that one basket.

we already established that this is not happening.

I know you know this though. And this is why you annoy people. You're not an "Xbox fan" you act like paid PR. As someone who was an ACTUAL Xbox fan at one point I just don't see how their current actions or performance are defensible in any way.

cool.

Let's not forget that gamepass adjacent revenue (mtx, etc) is being counted towards gamepass revenue iirc

Why would game pass revenue include MTX. That doesn't come under the subscription service and is general revenue that can be gotten without a sub service.

If you have any reliable source/link that shows otherwise, I'm all ears.

Yes, the victim complex is back. If you have so many complaints about this forum, why are you here?

Because I like some of the posters here and hate to see them being hoodwinked by charlatan topics like this

 

[Alabtrosmyster]

With $1 3 month trials I'm sure it's up.

It's already the best deal in gaming at regular price!

 

[KnittedKnight]

PC Gamepass turned out to be the "1% of China" of this gen. Folks still love Steam like a cult. Should have bought Valve instead but obviously that would be another anti-competitive move on the "open platform" but since Steam is literally Windows there is little impulse, as opposed to the console space.

They're still stuck with the fucking box. Can't sell the box better than the competition, can't increase the subscriber base to any significant degree. Beautiful in a way.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Gained subs last fiscal quarter like @Dodkrake said, and set record revenue. To the point where at least Sony are willing to share their services revenue.

Guess who isn't, despite pushing subscriptions as the future of the industry? Even Nintendo shares their services revenue. NINTENDO!!

-----------

Anyway to the main point of the thread...

It's no wonder they don't share the Game Pass numbers. You've done a lot of looking into Game Pass revenue over the year and I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers are within an accurate range. Similar to when we were trying to figure out Xbox Series sold-through as of end of 2022; looks like Brad Smith basically confirmed our own extrapolative speculation (either that or he's lying to regulators by downplaying Xbox market share globally).

Game Pass numbers, I'm guessing they are sub-25 million. Maybe not too much lower, but closer to 20 million than 25 million. Just like with the console sales numbers, what's in the closet will eventually come out. The truth will at some point be revealed or confirmed. And if one was right in figuring out Xbox console sales numbers, chances are they're right about the Game Pass numbers, too.

So we might need to throw two parties

I do think, however, that the subscriber count would be > 25 million by now. It's the ARPU that I'm most interested in knowing.

Because as @KiryuRealty said, if you are getting a Game Pass subscription voucher with Pringles cans (FFS!), it does not really matter how many million subscribers you have, unless it's seen in the context of ARPU.

At this point, I'd not be surprised if Game Pass ARPU is lower than PS+ ARPU after the introduction of Extra and Premium.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Because I like some of the posters here and hate to see them being hoodwinked by charlatan topics like this

Nothing charlatan about this topic.

Microsoft hasn't revealed Game Pass number (one of their most important metric, by their own admission) in 400 days. That's a simple fact, is it not? You're just mad I created a thread on this and shed some light on this?

 

[KiryuRealty]

I do think, however, that the subscriber count would be > 25 million by now. It's the ARPU that I'm most interested in knowing.

Because as @KiryuRealty said, if you are getting a Game Pass subscription voucher with Pringles cans (FFS!), it does not really matter how many million subscribers you have, unless it's seen in the context of ARPU.

At this point, I'd not be surprised if Game Pass ARPU is lower than PS+ ARPU after the introduction of Extra and Premium.

One thing, it is widely reported that Game Pass has a ridiculous churn rate, and that is a major issue with the lack of growth.

If they are losing two subscribers for every one that redeems a condom wrapper for a free month, they’re losing users. If they have two condom coupon users join for a trial and lose two paying customers, they’ve stagnated on user count, but are losing revenue.

The service is in a death spiral if they aren’t gaining full-paying subscribers, and by all accounts they aren’t getting new signups that are paying or staying!

 

[Old Gamer]

The service is in a death spiral if they aren’t gaining full-paying subscribers, and by all accounts they aren’t getting new signups that are paying or staying!

After so many people before me getting 3 years at once with "one dollar tricks", I wouldn't be willing to pay full price either.

 

[alphachino]

The biggest reason why game subs will never work like movies/TV and music is because of the existence of save files and tracking the progress/time spent with a game is infinitely more valuable than a simple timestamp.

I paid for 3+ years of GPU (with huge regret), but I've never spent more than 15 minutes playing a game there. I can't stand the idea of my save files being locked into their ecosystem. I'd rather give up gaming entirely than to let that happen.

 

[Satoru]

Why would game pass revenue include MTX. That doesn't come under the subscription service and is general revenue that can be gotten without a sub service.

If you have any reliable source/link that shows otherwise, I'm all ears.

So, there are conflicting reports from MS themselves, which makes this very hard to calculate. Per the CADE documents, which are as official as they can get, Gamepass revenue was ~ $2.9B for the full year back when they had up to 19M subscribers. I'm going to use this best case number which doesn't account for growth throughout the year.

If we divide those $2.9B by 19M users, we get a revenue of ~ $153 / user. This is $12.75 / user / month.

When looking at the plans, two out of three plans cost $9.99/month, with Ultimate costing $14.99. The values above would mean every user was pretty much paying full price and that most users actually have gamepass ultimate. Based on best practices for businesses, it's entirely possible that Microsoft was accounting for revenue using the full amount each subscription and then adding discounts as a business expense, and this wouldn't be a problem

HOWEVER...

When we look at statements by Phil Spencer, he mentions that Gamepass accounts for ~15% of Xbox Revenue. If the math in that article is correct (I don't trust VGChartz, but they quote their sources, I have no problem trusting said sources), then the numbers are different:

if we divide those $542M by 25M users and adjust for quarterly figures, we get a revenue of ~$22 / user. This is ~7$ / user / month.

So the math itself, provided by official sources, does not match whatsoever. If we go by the older figures, either they are following accounting best practices or they are adding mtx revenue via gamepass to its overall revenue. If we go by newer figures however, they are probably not including mtx revenue and are already accounting for freebies on their revenue.

This is very nebulous, and funny enough, if we look at both sources independently, Gamepass managed to increase in subscribers while decreasing in yearly revenue.

Hope this answers your question.

Edit - So we're clear, accounting best practices dictate that you have your sales accounted for at full retail price and then add your discounts, freebies, etc, under your expenses.

Edit 2 - most numbers are rounded, either up or down. Nothing too substantial but I'd like to point that out.

 

[Alabtrosmyster]

One thing, it is widely reported that Game Pass has a ridiculous churn rate, and that is a major issue with the lack of growth.

If they are losing two subscribers for every one that redeems a condom wrapper for a free month, they’re losing users. If they have two condom coupon users join for a trial and lose two paying customers, they’ve stagnated on user count, but are losing revenue.

The service is in a death spiral if they aren’t gaining full-paying subscribers, and by all accounts they aren’t getting new signups that are paying or staying!

Anecdotal, but I don't know anyone who kept the service.

 

[PropellerEar]

So, there are conflicting reports from MS themselves, which makes this very hard to calculate. Per the CADE documents, which are as official as they can get, Gamepass revenue was ~ $2.9B for the full year back when they had up to 19M subscribers. I'm going to use this best case number which doesn't account for growth throughout the year.

If we divide those $2.9B by 19M users, we get a revenue of ~ $153 / user. This is $12.75 / user / month.

When looking at the plans, two out of three plans cost $9.99/month, with Ultimate costing $14.99. The values above would mean every user was pretty much paying full price and that most users actually have gamepass ultimate. Based on best practices for businesses, it's entirely possible that Microsoft was accounting for revenue using the full amount each subscription and then adding discounts as a business expense, and this wouldn't be a problem

HOWEVER...

When we look at statements by Phil Spencer, he mentions that Gamepass accounts for ~15% of Xbox Revenue. If the math in that article is correct (I don't trust VGChartz, but they quote their sources, I have no problem trusting said sources), then the numbers are different:

if we divide those $542M by 25M users and adjust for quarterly figures, we get a revenue of ~$22 / user. This is ~7$ / user / month.

So the math itself, provided by official sources, does not match whatsoever. If we go by the older figures, either they are following accounting best practices or they are adding mtx revenue via gamepass to its overall revenue. If we go by newer figures however, they are probably not including mtx revenue and are already accounting for freebies on their revenue.

This is very nebulous, and funny enough, if we look at both sources independently, Gamepass managed to increase in subscribers while decreasing in yearly revenue.

Hope this answers your question.

Edit - So we're clear, accounting best practices dictate that you have your sales accounted for at full retail price and then add your discounts, freebies, etc, under your expenses.

Edit 2 - most numbers are rounded, either up or down. Nothing too substantial but I'd like to point that out.

Did the similar calculation with the CADE numbers, and they are way too convenient.
Pretty sure MSFT being creative with numbers as usual, nobody is forcing transparency on them.
That revenue is only projected (what if we had real subscribers) number to bolster the middling service.
The real number is hidden, the projected one is "calculated" by moving almost ~2B marketing/promotion/operating costs to GP revenue.

 

[Satoru]

Did the same maths with the CADE numbers, and they are way too convenient.
Pretty sure MSFT being creative with numbers as usual, nobody is forcing transparency on them.
That revenue is only projected (what if we had real subscribers) number to bolster the middling service.
The real number is hidden, the projected one is "calculated" by moving almost ~2B marketing/promotion/operating costs to GP revenue.

If you would be so kind, update your post with the proper quote where I re-check my math and add more context

 

[adamsapple]

Edit 2 - most numbers are rounded, either up or down. Nothing too substantial but I'd like to point that out.

Sure, I appreciate that you went through the trouble of rounding up the info.

I, personally, don't see why MTX revenue would be included in the specific sub service column myself.

 

[Deleted member 417]

The figures we have only paint half the picture. Revenue is great and all, but what profit is Gamepass making? If it is making a healthy profit then it's worth investing in the idea. If it is only scraping through on fudged numbers and best case ideas, can we be so sure that Gamepass won't have the rugged pulled from under it?

 

[Gediminas]

The figures we have only paint half the picture. Revenue is great and all, but what profit is Gamepass making? If it is making a healthy profit then it's worth investing in the idea. If it is only scraping through on fudged numbers and best case ideas, can we be so sure that Gamepass won't have the rugged pulled from under it?

there is no profit. relax. plus, there is no need for profit anyways. profit doesn't matter

 

[KiryuRealty]

The figures we have only paint half the picture. Revenue is great and all, but what profit is Gamepass making? If it is making a healthy profit then it's worth investing in the idea. If it is only scraping through on fudged numbers and best case ideas, can we be so sure that Gamepass won't have the rugged pulled from under it?

You know damn well that it’s a money sink.

All of XBox is nothing but a money pit, with the losses hidden by bundling it into other divisions.

 

[Swift_Star]

Adam is so angry lately... Is it because the ABK deal is severely threatened?

 

[Bodycount611]

Adam is so angry lately... Is it because the ABK deal is severely threatened?

it's because mikami bailed on tango and hi fi rush is a failed game.

 

[Hezekiah]

How long before MS starts announcing the number of hours played by GamePass subscribers instead of the number of subscribers....