There has been a lot of doomsaying, so I wanted to try and get people on the record here.
Will the PS5 outsell the PS4 or not?
Will the PS5 outsell the PS4 or not?
Will the PS5 outsell PS4?
- Thread starter mibu no ookami
- Start date
GTAVI will boost PS5 into the stratosphere, you damn right it will outsell PS4, PS4 people will have no choice but to upgrade.
tougher economy during this generation, higher price point, and mainstream games (fortnite, cod, sports) appear still locked to last gen for the time. GTA effect will be interesting to see in 2025 but could also use some price cut with exclude twightlight year switch PS and xbox number have started dropping. PS also shooting itself in foot as well with PC ports.
Might be possible to outsell ps4 but I think it will end up selling around the same but, depends if there are enough price drops and exclusives. Right now they need bigger drops than just 50 dollars. They need to drop Ps5 to at least 299, as that would be a cheaper and more mass adoption price than just dropping to 400 or 350. Also Gta6 might provide a huge boost to sales that could be enough for it to slightly outsell it.
Possibly.
But look at it this way.
We shouldnt even be discussing if it would sell more, thats a lose already for PS.
Yes they had to deal with Covid and hardware issues. But now what?
PS4 sold 120+ million after coming back from the PS3 generation. They had such an uphill battle dealing with MS and the media. PS3 being there worst generation whether it comes to mindshare, sales of console etc, toughest competition, got caught with lack of online system. And dealing with the MS shill machine and Sony is doomed.
PS5 came after all the success of PS4, probably there strongest mindshare, best software 1st party sales, selling true EXCLUSIVE games. They should be riding the wave and doing more of what they do before.
But instead they are around the same numbers. And with tons of backlash from actual life long fans not just media.
I see it as a lost opportunity if they are around the PS4 numbers or a bit above, not a success. Tbh Playstation might not be playstation anymore, theres too many changes since PS1/PS2/PS3/PS4. I know there are some trying to pretend all is great and nothing has changed, but we’ll see
GTA6 could take them to another level, but that wouldnt be there own work. Thats XBox fucking up, Nintendo still using tech from 10+years ago and PC being somewhere Rockstar doesnt want to port to yet. All advantages for PS5 sales
But look at it this way.
We shouldnt even be discussing if it would sell more, thats a lose already for PS.
Yes they had to deal with Covid and hardware issues. But now what?
PS4 sold 120+ million after coming back from the PS3 generation. They had such an uphill battle dealing with MS and the media. PS3 being there worst generation whether it comes to mindshare, sales of console etc, toughest competition, got caught with lack of online system. And dealing with the MS shill machine and Sony is doomed.
PS5 came after all the success of PS4, probably there strongest mindshare, best software 1st party sales, selling true EXCLUSIVE games. They should be riding the wave and doing more of what they do before.
But instead they are around the same numbers. And with tons of backlash from actual life long fans not just media.
I see it as a lost opportunity if they are around the PS4 numbers or a bit above, not a success. Tbh Playstation might not be playstation anymore, theres too many changes since PS1/PS2/PS3/PS4. I know there are some trying to pretend all is great and nothing has changed, but we’ll see
GTA6 could take them to another level, but that wouldnt be there own work. Thats XBox fucking up, Nintendo still using tech from 10+years ago and PC being somewhere Rockstar doesnt want to port to yet. All advantages for PS5 sales
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Nope, especially when they have no games to show and continue porting shit to PC. It will maybe get a sales bump due to GTA VI, but that's about it.
They are behind the PS4, not above, and the distance is expected to increase this year.
I meant even if they finish with a million above PS4, not right now.
Supposedly they are above in the US.
Yes, it will outsell it because launch aligned despite the shortages and having had to increase its price instead of the price cut PS4 had at this point is selling almost the same.
With the difference that looking ahead PS5 has a way bigger PS4 active userbase who will make the jump later, and is earning a bigger percentage of new users for a combination of their expansion to PC, movies and tv shows and Xbox declining to almost dying and even publishing MGS studios on PS.
Looking at the projects they have in store, in the next 5 years or so Sony will grow their audience via PC (several important GaaS to debut there), mobile, and tv/movie adaptations (they had 10 projects in the works). In addition to this, they keep eating market share to Xbox in a pace that in a few years they'll be only a marginal portion of the market.
They also had to increase its price because due to inflation and covid the hardware components (and shipment) costs kept increasing over time instead of doing what they did in the past: to decrease. But I assume Nishino will find ways to reduce costs from here and there managing to find a way to be able to price cut the console and doing it so in a sustainable way. If they manage to do so, sales will bump.
In less than 3 years and a half sold 59.4M as of March. Next year 77.4M if they reach their 18M target in less than 4 years.
PS3 sold 87.4M on its 11 years. Meaning, pretty likely PS5 will outsell the PS3 on less than half of that time.
With the difference that looking ahead PS5 has a way bigger PS4 active userbase who will make the jump later, and is earning a bigger percentage of new users for a combination of their expansion to PC, movies and tv shows and Xbox declining to almost dying and even publishing MGS studios on PS.
Looking at the projects they have in store, in the next 5 years or so Sony will grow their audience via PC (several important GaaS to debut there), mobile, and tv/movie adaptations (they had 10 projects in the works). In addition to this, they keep eating market share to Xbox in a pace that in a few years they'll be only a marginal portion of the market.
They also had to increase its price because due to inflation and covid the hardware components (and shipment) costs kept increasing over time instead of doing what they did in the past: to decrease. But I assume Nishino will find ways to reduce costs from here and there managing to find a way to be able to price cut the console and doing it so in a sustainable way. If they manage to do so, sales will bump.
Sony consoles are sold during over 10 years. This generation, like the previous one thanks to GaaS and game subs will be specially long.
In less than 3 years and a half sold 59.4M as of March. Next year 77.4M if they reach their 18M target in less than 4 years.
PS3 sold 87.4M on its 11 years. Meaning, pretty likely PS5 will outsell the PS3 on less than half of that time.
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This makes no sense. That's the infinite growth the suits are constantly talking about and it will never work. You can't just keep on growing generation after generation. There has to be a cap somewhere.
Their FY this year is 18 million. However, without a major bankable exclusive or massive 3P release to drive B2P sales, I don't see how they reach it. They also don't intend on doing price cuts for the console itself, seemingly, so that'll be another hurdle.
More likely, and especially if Switch 2 released before the end of FY '24, PS5'll do another 16 million this FY. I don't think the PS5 Pro has enough value proposition among hardcore & core enthusiasts to drive adoption the same way PS4 Pro. And yes, a part of the problem there is many of the big exclusives Sony could've used to sell the PS5 Pro, are already on PC instead. Meaning, realistically, if you DO want the best performance of those games, just get a capable enough CPU & GPU and you'll also be set for 3P games and PC exclusives on top of that.
And it's not like Sony are going to withhold any PS5 Pro enhancements from the PC versions either; they'd get called out by Steam players and the media for arbitrarily doing so, and we've seen how quickly Sony/SIE buckle to pressure from the PC community (far quicker than they do from their console base). So yeah, with all those things considered I can see PS5 missing the FY target by ~ 2 million. If they already reached ~ 60 million by end of FY '23, that'd put them at around 76-77 million by April 2025.
I don't know what the year-by-year sales for PS4 were after its 4th full FY on the market, but I do know it reached the 114 million mark by sometime in 2020 about before the PS5 launched. 108 million by around end of FY '19 (March 2020). For PS5 to do the same, and assuming they do fall a bit short of the FY target this year, they'd need to do at least 15.5 million for FY 25 and FY 26, keeping with a typical 7-year generation cycle. Also worth considering, this gen for PS will probably go until 2028 before the successor launches.
So having considered all of that...yes, I do think the PS5 will outsell the PS4. Shocker, right? You were probably expecting me to say the opposite. However, that doesn't mean all of the customer blocks within the ecosystem would have been satisfyingly served. Which in turn, could mean slower adoption of the PS6. At this point in the console gen it's mainly casuals and mainstream who are buying systems, and one of the reasons I do project PS5 Pro might underperform is because of a block of hardcore/core enthusiasts who don't see the value in buying one vs. the PS4 Pro. And they'll be the type who become critical around the time of a PS6's launch, as some chunk might opt to skip early adoption.
Then maybe you and others will see what I'm actually talking about, with the 'slow burn effect'. Of course that's assuming Sony/SIE continue with their multiplat strategy the way they have been doing so far, and I'd argue, their rather tepid engagement with the core fanbase including the way they've been revealing (or not revealing) various games of theirs. Yes the casuals and mainstream don't care about this stuff, but a big chunk of the hardcore & core do. Make them lose enough interest and see what happens. As I always say...just ask Microsoft
More likely, and especially if Switch 2 released before the end of FY '24, PS5'll do another 16 million this FY. I don't think the PS5 Pro has enough value proposition among hardcore & core enthusiasts to drive adoption the same way PS4 Pro. And yes, a part of the problem there is many of the big exclusives Sony could've used to sell the PS5 Pro, are already on PC instead. Meaning, realistically, if you DO want the best performance of those games, just get a capable enough CPU & GPU and you'll also be set for 3P games and PC exclusives on top of that.
And it's not like Sony are going to withhold any PS5 Pro enhancements from the PC versions either; they'd get called out by Steam players and the media for arbitrarily doing so, and we've seen how quickly Sony/SIE buckle to pressure from the PC community (far quicker than they do from their console base). So yeah, with all those things considered I can see PS5 missing the FY target by ~ 2 million. If they already reached ~ 60 million by end of FY '23, that'd put them at around 76-77 million by April 2025.
I don't know what the year-by-year sales for PS4 were after its 4th full FY on the market, but I do know it reached the 114 million mark by sometime in 2020 about before the PS5 launched. 108 million by around end of FY '19 (March 2020). For PS5 to do the same, and assuming they do fall a bit short of the FY target this year, they'd need to do at least 15.5 million for FY 25 and FY 26, keeping with a typical 7-year generation cycle. Also worth considering, this gen for PS will probably go until 2028 before the successor launches.
So having considered all of that...yes, I do think the PS5 will outsell the PS4. Shocker, right? You were probably expecting me to say the opposite. However, that doesn't mean all of the customer blocks within the ecosystem would have been satisfyingly served. Which in turn, could mean slower adoption of the PS6. At this point in the console gen it's mainly casuals and mainstream who are buying systems, and one of the reasons I do project PS5 Pro might underperform is because of a block of hardcore/core enthusiasts who don't see the value in buying one vs. the PS4 Pro. And they'll be the type who become critical around the time of a PS6's launch, as some chunk might opt to skip early adoption.
Then maybe you and others will see what I'm actually talking about, with the 'slow burn effect'. Of course that's assuming Sony/SIE continue with their multiplat strategy the way they have been doing so far, and I'd argue, their rather tepid engagement with the core fanbase including the way they've been revealing (or not revealing) various games of theirs. Yes the casuals and mainstream don't care about this stuff, but a big chunk of the hardcore & core do. Make them lose enough interest and see what happens. As I always say...just ask Microsoft
Technically the PS4 did ~ 108 million by March 2020 and 112 million by November 2020 (going by data on Stasia). The PS2 did a little over 117 million by March 2007 and four years later sold over 150 million.
So basically, the PS2 sold faster than PS4 in roughly the same timeframe, but the PS2 was also kind of a freak of nature for its time.
I see my bad. Thanks for the correction.
Still the PS2 was selling at bargain basement prices and being a DVD player helped too.
Remember it being 99 pounds here in UK for several years.
The PS4 never received a price cut of that order.
In context for me the PS4 is still the most impressive selling Sony console simply because it was purely selling as a games console and didn’t receive the crazy price drops the PS2 got.