remember: all of this started with PC releases
Not
necessarily; when MS started porting their XBO games to PC, it was in 2016, and they were exclusive to their Windows Store. Honestly, their own PC storefront was never popular for gaming, so that had a minimal impact on XBO sales. We can tell that because according to some sources, they still did around 58 million. More so than that, they did hold their own in the US and UK.
I'd say rather than the PC ports, it was MS not prioritizing other markets outside of US & UK, and drying up on 3P exclusives that were bigger contributors to the drop from 360 to XBO in install base. People keep forgetting that MS didn't put their PC games on Steam until
2020, and that was with Sea of Thieves, a late port.
Coincidentally, I'd say the PC porting strategy has particularly been damaging to Xbox Series hardware sales this gen, because MS's focus on Steam ports coincided with the new console launches. Steam is many magnitudes more popular than MS's own storefront (or PC Game Pass) for PC gaming. Also, since MS are a 3P on Steam, they lack the control and 100% revenue they have with PC Game Pass or their own Windows storefront.
The gradual declines with XBO have simply accelerated and compounded on the declines of self-inflicted stab wounds with Xbox Series, and the coincidence between MS pushing Day 1 Steam for their PC games around the start of the 9th gen gives strong grounds that the two are correlated. If it weren't for the pandemic and chip shortages, we would've seen this rapid collapse of XBS sales two years earlier. So effectively those two things gave MS two years of padding that made them oblivious to the actual damage their strategy was going to do long-term towards their own hardware.
I mean think about it; during the pandemic, PS5s were incredibly hard to come by. PS4s had basically stopped manufacturing, and even the Series X was negatively impacted. Outside of the Switch, the only system not affected was the Series S. If you wanted something, anything, during that period to play the current AAA games, and also happened to be relatively cheap...the Series S was really the only option. That created artificial demand for Series S, because if supply for other systems like PS4, Series X or especially PS5 were decent, those systems would've curb-stomped Series S's sales volume roughly a year after it launched.
MS relied on external market, economic & societal (pandemic) factors to drive Xbox sales in 2021 and 2022, which made them blind to what damage their Day 1 PC (Steam) strategy taking full effect in the same time frame, would eventually have on Xbox console demand.
And now we're here.
The problem is this: q1+q2 2024 sales are 1.3m units combined, both XBO and X360 never reached that low until the last year before the next gen came out and after that they fell off a cliff.
The even worse problem is that the trend is going downwards.
Even if we're being generous and using Welfare's estimates of 800K for the reported quarter, and let's say 800K the quarter before that, and they somehow maintain that for this quarter and get a 600K boost in Q4...that would still only top out at 3.8 million for the CY.
Frankly it's an abysmal number for what's meant to be a mainstream, mass-market console brand, and everyone but the diehard warriors are willing to admit as such. Keep in mind, MS are still losing money on each unit being sold, which just makes it sting that much more.