"Next year is going to be very, very big for Sony First Party games" industry veteran Shinobi

[Yurinka]

Industry as a whole is slowing down and getting smaller all while some studios get closed or forced to do layoffs but it seems Sony First Party game draught is about to be over.

This started with shinobi saying

Then he expounded further when questioned

Shinobi has no insider info. Ghost of Tsushima 2 won't be released next year. But like every year, Sony will have a good amount of great releases.

Pretty likely the big releases of next year will be Marathon, Fairgame$, Cory's new IP, Team Asobi's next game, something from Firesprite (the rumored Twisted Metal? Until Dawn 2? A PSVR2 friendly Wipeout?), and pretty likely Sony London's new IP and Horizon Online, which could be SIE's first big mobile game (if codeveloped with Netease as rumored it could be console + PC + mobile).

But 4 massive GaaS released in a year having released 2 massive ones the previous year (Condord and Helldivers 2) means they could delay minimum one of them to 2026, I'd say Fairgame$ and Horizon Online. Or Firesprite's MP game. I assume Deviation's game is one of those delayed beyond March 2026.

That would've probably been the case had their aggressive forecast for whatever number(was it 10?) they had planned before FY 2025 or 2026 had manifested.

Their forecast was 10 franchises, 12 when acquired Bungie, and cancelled one of them: TLOU Online. So they are 11 now.

Out of them they already published 4: MLB, GT7, Firewall Ultra and Helldivers 2 (and this isn't including Destiny 2). They said that after reviewing release dates of some of them 6 were basically confirmed to reach their "maximum March 2026" original milestone, while the other ones they knew were going to miss it or were still under evaluation.

 

[Yobo]

I mean obviously Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch, and Sony Bend will be well overdue by that point to drop a game. We already know Death Stranding 2 is 2025. Wolverine is due, as is Marathon. Cory Barlogs new IP will end it's third year of full production (after having had 4-5 years pre production before that). Bluepoint will be in year 5 since a release,as will team Astro

So yes a potentially huge year based on what little we know

 

[nongkris]

How can next year be big if nothing beside Death Stranding 2 has been announced? Seems like the old failed narrative of shorter release windows and Sony hidden games again that will make people wait every week for the surprise Showcase that never comes.

Exactly, any big Sony first party game that is supposed to release within a year would've already been announced with a trailer. This is copium and likely means that concord and fairgame$ are being delayed from 2024 to 2025.

I'm too old to be waiting 5 plus years for one game to come out, I'm not a spring chicken anymore.

 

[Nhomnhom]

Exactly, any big Sony first party game that is supposed to release within a year would've already been announced with a trailer. This is copium and likely means that concord and fairgame$ are being delayed from 2024 to 2025.

I'm too old to be waiting 5 plus years for one game to come out, I'm not a spring chicken anymore.

Not to mention how dangerous it would be to concentrate releases on a year GTA6 comes out.

My hope is that we at the very least get Concord and new Team ASOBI game this year, Death Stranding 2 early next year and 2026 ends up being stacked. For this to happen we are going to need big announcements soon.

Maybe there is some other big game coming with the release of the PS5 Pro but I would be very surprised.

 

[Yobo]

Exactly, any big Sony first party game that is supposed to release within a year would've already been announced with a trailer. This is copium and likely means that concord and fairgame$ are being delayed from 2024 to 2025.

I'm too old to be waiting 5 plus years for one game to come out, I'm not a spring chicken anymore.

Depending on the developer (eg Kojima will still make a shit ton of trailers), Sony have moved away from the long announcement windows and 3+ years of trailers a long time ago. Helldivers 2 for example was just announced in May last year and released 9 months later. GOW Ragnarok was just over a year between reveal trailer and release

 

[ApolloHelios]

Looking at comments here and as if I'm reading from reset era smh lots of xbots here in pony skins too

 

[Yurinka]

Exactly, any big Sony first party game that is supposed to release within a year would've already been announced with a trailer. This is copium and likely means that concord and fairgame$ are being delayed from 2024 to 2025.

I'm too old to be waiting 5 plus years for one game to come out, I'm not a spring chicken anymore.

Fairgame$ never has been announced for 2024, and since they started its development in 2021 it's impossible that it could be ready for 2024, and pretty likely 2025. Very likely it's going to be a 2026 or even 2027 game.

I mean obviously Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch, and Sony Bend will be well overdue by that point to drop a game. We already know Death Stranding 2 is 2025. Wolverine is due, as is Marathon. Cory Barlogs new IP will end it's third year of full production (after having had 4-5 years pre production before that). Bluepoint will be in year 5 since a release,as will team Astro

So yes a potentially huge year based on what little we know

Assuming the average 5-9 years of development in AAA games:

• Cory's started to work in the pitch of his IP in summer 2018, assuming it was greenlighted they could have started early production early 2019, meaning it could be even released in 2024
• Marathon was delayed to 2025 according to a leak that also confirmed Destiny 2 info.
• After having cancelled TLOU Online, the next new ND game would be a SP game started to be developed there around 2021 or hopefully late 2020 after they shipped TLOU2. That would mean to be released minimum late 2025 or 2026.
• Bend's new IP was started in 2021, so at the earliest should be released in 2026.
• Wolverine appeared as a 2026 game in the leaked Insomniac documents.
• Bluepoint has no "secret game" lead by them: their full team worked on Demon's Souls, once done they moved to support GoWR and once shipped they moved to support some other Sony game leaded by someone else (as could be Cory's new IP, the next GoW or some ND game).
• Returnal was released in 2021, so their next game would be released at the earliest in 2026

 

[Yobo]

Looking at comments here and as if I'm reading from reset era smh lots of xbots here in pony skins too

There's a few been especially crying it up since Helldivers 2 demolished their most prized genres

 

[Yobo]

Fairgame$ never has been announced for 2024, and since they started its development in 2021 it's impossible that it could be ready for 2024, and pretty likely 2025. Very likely it's going to be a 2026 or even 2027 game.

Not saying you are wrong but pretty sure big parts of that game were already being made earlier for Google? And the basis for forming the studio was on their game pitch. It's very possible that Fairgame$ pre production was heavily completed by 2021

Plus they aren't AAA development. 2027 is a bit overboard for a timeline

 

[Gamernyc78]

Industry as a whole is slowing down and getting smaller all while some studios get closed or forced to do layoffs but it seems Sony First Party game draught is about to be over.

This started with shinobi saying

Then he expounded further when questioned

He said this same thing the other year just saying. I remember.

 

[Hezekiah]

Yep, expecting some big unannounced single-player games next year.

 

[Yurinka]

Not saying you are wrong but pretty sure big parts of that game were already being made earlier for Google? And the basis for forming the studio was on their game pitch. It's very possible that Fairgame$ pre production was heavily completed by 2021

Plus they aren't AAA development. 2027 is a bit overboard for a timeline

Basically this is the timeline:

1. The core team at Haven breaks records of fastest selling new IP ever in gaming history with Assassin's Creed, Watchdogs or The Division
2. They lead the creation of Ubisoft Toronto, Ubi's 2nd biggest studio in the world and work in many top performing AAA games like Rainbow Six Siege, AC series or Far Cry series, and Jade Raymond also has a role in creation of top performing new IPs of the time like For Honor or The Crew
3. EA hires her as Senior VP and ask her to create Motive, which quickly scales with mostly former Ubi staff and gets tasked with fixing Star Wars Battlefront 2 and making Star Wars Squardrons, Dead Spake remake and the cancelled Star Wars Amy Hennig game
4. Google hires her as Senior VP to lead the first party development, creation of first party teams and 2nd party publishing of Stadia. She quickly scales the team again with many AAA staff mainly from Ubi and Motive but Google shuts down related plans and Stadia before they could publish anything
5. A few folks from that Google team create Haven
6. What they had made in Google and could reuse outside was engine, tools, game pitches and some early prototypes
7. Haven did show Sony 3 pitches
8. Sony liked all 3 and asked them to develop for them all 3 (Jade Raymond is very experienced on quicly scaling top performing AAA teams and studios)
9. Haven said this time they'd start making only one of them
10. They start hiring former coworkers they had in Ubi teams, Motive and Google plus more top tier devs from other AAA teams
11. Hermen and Cerny get very impressed by their tech and tools, workflow and them being ahead of schedule developing the game (normally al teams have multiple delays)
12. A year after signing the game with Haven in 2021, SIE acquires them in 2022
13. They start to highly grow getting more top tier hirings from Ubisoft, Massive and other AAA studios (as of now they have open job positions in 16 areas)

They are 100% AAA. These folks may do the largest PS Studios games and in the future be their more productive studio.

Assuming they started production in 2021, by the average AAA development time they sould release around 2026-2030 or even later considering they had to build the studio and the team, that are creating a AAA new IP and that it is a AAA game. Being them, maybe even release it in late 2025 if lucky.

He said this same thing the other year just saying. I remember.

Yes. Saying that next year Sony is going to have a great year it's like to say Nintendo is working in multiple games with Mario on it. It's something obvious, no need insider info to know it.

 

[Yobo]

Basically this is the timeline:

1. The core team at Haven breaks records of fastest selling new IP ever in gaming history with Assassin's Creed, Watchdogs or The Division
2. They lead the creation of Ubisoft Toronto, Ubi's 2nd biggest studio in the world and work in many top performing AAA games like Rainbow Six Siege, AC series or Far Cry series, and Jade Raymond also has a role in creation of top performing new IPs of the time like For Honor or The Crew
3. EA hires her as Senior VP and ask her to create Motive, which quickly scales with mostly former Ubi staff and gets tasked with fixing Star Wars Battlefront 2 and making Star Wars Squardrons, Dead Spake remake and the cancelled Star Wars Amy Hennig game
4. Google hires her as Senior VP to lead the first party development, creation of first party teams and 2nd party publishing of Stadia. She quickly scales the team again with many AAA staff mainly from Ubi and Motive but Google shuts down related plans and Stadia before they could publish anything
5. A few folks from that Google team create Haven
6. What they had made in Google and could reuse outside was engine, tools, game pitches and some early prototypes
7. Haven did show Sony 3 pitches
8. Sony liked all 3 and asked them to develop for them all 3 (Jade Raymond is very experienced on quicly scaling top performing AAA teams and studios)
9. Haven said this time they'd start making only one of them
10. They start hiring former coworkers they had in Ubi teams, Motive and Google plus more top tier devs from other AAA teams
11. Hermen and Cerny get very impressed by their tech and tools, workflow and them being ahead of schedule developing the game (normally al teams have multiple delays)
12. A year after signing the game with Haven in 2021, SIE acquires them in 2022
13. They start to highly grow getting more top tier hirings from Ubisoft, Massive and other AAA studios (as of now they have open job positions in 16 areas)

They are 100% AAA. These folks may do the largest PS Studios games and in the future be their more productive studio.

Guess we will see but I don't see how a 2025 release is unreasonable

 

[Yurinka]

Guess we will see but I don't see how a 2025 release is unreasonable

Probably because you don't know that on average nowadays game take 5-9 years to be developed, even more if you have to build the studio, even more if you have to build the team, even more if it's a new AAA IP, even more if you're making a new next gen engine, tech and tools for it, even more if it's GaaS.

To release their game in 5 years (2026) would already be very impressive and productive. Any company would say it would be more realistic to expect it for 2027.

 

[Jim Ryan]

That was supposed to be a private conversation, Shinobi!

 

[Yurinka]

That was supposed to be a private conversation, Shinobi!

Did you send Arrowhead some cookies?

 

[Jim Ryan]

Did you send Arrowhead some cookies?

They're getting paid in cookies.

 

[Ezekiel]

Industry as a whole is slowing down and getting smaller all while some studios get closed or forced to do layoffs but it seems Sony First Party game draught is about to be over.

This started with shinobi saying

Then he expounded further when questioned

What draught?

We've been swimming in games since the start of the gen, every year seems to be better than the last one.

It's insane to me how gamers are being served 5 course meals and still find time to complain.

 

[Ezekiel]

Basically this is the timeline:

1. The core team at Haven breaks records of fastest selling new IP ever in gaming history with Assassin's Creed, Watchdogs or The Division
2. They lead the creation of Ubisoft Toronto, Ubi's 2nd biggest studio in the world and work in many top performing AAA games like Rainbow Six Siege, AC series or Far Cry series, and Jade Raymond also has a role in creation of top performing new IPs of the time like For Honor or The Crew
3. EA hires her as Senior VP and ask her to create Motive, which quickly scales with mostly former Ubi staff and gets tasked with fixing Star Wars Battlefront 2 and making Star Wars Squardrons, Dead Spake remake and the cancelled Star Wars Amy Hennig game
4. Google hires her as Senior VP to lead the first party development, creation of first party teams and 2nd party publishing of Stadia. She quickly scales the team again with many AAA staff mainly from Ubi and Motive but Google shuts down related plans and Stadia before they could publish anything
5. A few folks from that Google team create Haven
6. What they had made in Google and could reuse outside was engine, tools, game pitches and some early prototypes
7. Haven did show Sony 3 pitches
8. Sony liked all 3 and asked them to develop for them all 3 (Jade Raymond is very experienced on quicly scaling top performing AAA teams and studios)
9. Haven said this time they'd start making only one of them
10. They start hiring former coworkers they had in Ubi teams, Motive and Google plus more top tier devs from other AAA teams
11. Hermen and Cerny get very impressed by their tech and tools, workflow and them being ahead of schedule developing the game (normally al teams have multiple delays)
12. A year after signing the game with Haven in 2021, SIE acquires them in 2022
13. They start to highly grow getting more top tier hirings from Ubisoft, Massive and other AAA studios (as of now they have open job positions in 16 areas)

They are 100% AAA. These folks may do the largest PS Studios games and in the future be their more productive studio.

Assuming they started production in 2021, by the average AAA development time they sould release around 2026-2030 or even later considering they had to build the studio and the team, that are creating a AAA new IP and that it is a AAA game. Being them, maybe even release it in late 2025 if lucky.


Yes. Saying that next year Sony is going to have a great year it's like to say Nintendo is working in multiple games with Mario on it. It's something obvious, no need insider info to know it.

I love your optimism, it's a rare sight these days. That fact that Marc Cerny visited the studio personally and did interviews with Jade Raymond and that the studio got bought before a game release gives me confidence that they will put out quality.

 

[Yobo]

Probably because you don't know that on average nowadays game take 5-9 years to be developed, even more if you have to build the studio, even more if you have to build the team, even more if it's a new AAA IP, even more if you're making a new next gen engine, tech and tools for it, even more if it's GaaS.

To release their game in 5 years (2026) would already be very impressive and productive. Any company would say it would be more realistic to expect it for 2027.

Fair enough. If that's the case they definitely jumped the gun on announcement