Helldivers 2 passed Destiny 2 all time CCU count. Top Seller all around on Steam |UP|Beats Dragon’s Dogma 2 to Reclaim #1 spot on Steam.

[Yurinka]

Wouldn't 6-7 million sales so far make it like their fastest selling game?

Yes. The thing is they released this one on PS+PC, not only in PS like the other ones.

They have 156,342 reviews on Steam, which with the x25 estimate method we have an estimation of around 3.9M units sold in Steam. The studio CEO said the split was around 50%-50% at least during the first days, so we'd be talking about an estimation of around 7.8M in Steam (not counting other PC stores)+PS.

But due to the server saturation issues that prevented people to play the game on proper conditions until yesterday, the percent of users who make a Steam review should be higher than usual. Meaning, I'd say around 6M is more realistic, maybe a bit higher because we saw sales in PS5 were apparently higher.

After he said the 1 million, Sony told him to shut up about sales because they want to handle the PR. Sony is very weird about milestones. You never know what they are going to use. They could be at 10 millions and Sony could still be waiting for some other stat

Yes. I assume that to avoid backslash from angry users, before any sales celebration they want to stabilize the main issues (login, matchmaking and rewards) during some days including a weekend.

They also are seeing the game constantly growing, so maybe the are also waiting a few days more to see until where they reach with the Steam CCU to mention it in the press release/tweet.

I mean, their current peak in Steam is 457,649 CCU. CoD peak is 491,670 CCU. Depending on how the server scales they may even pass CoD and to end with a 500K peak this weekend or next week, being the top 14 CCU in Steam history. That would also mean over 1M CCU, something it would look great included in the announcement.

Or who knows, another less likely but also possible reason would be that they signed that if the game achieved certain sales/revenue milestone they'd be acquired. And maybe they already achieved it or are pretty close, and are waiting for a nicer sales number to be included in that press release.

 

[anonpuffs]

Yes. The thing is they released this one on PS+PC, not only in PS like the other ones.

They have 156,342 reviews on Steam, which with the x25 estimate method we have an estimation of around 3.9M units sold in Steam. The studio CEO said the split was around 50%-50% at least during the first days, so we'd be talking about an estimation of around 7.8M in Steam (not counting other PC stores)+PS.

But due to the server saturation issues that prevented people to play the game on proper conditions until yesterday, the percent of users who make a Steam review should be higher than usual. Meaning, I'd say around 6M is more realistic, maybe a bit higher because we saw sales in PS5 were apparently higher.

6m is a reasonable estimate imo. I think with the activity level of the game it's not even unreasonable to estimate up to 8m. What I don't know is the level of refund activity on steam, there should be quite a bit of refunding due to server issues. Probably not enough to reduce that number drastically.

 

[Yurinka]

6m is a reasonable estimate imo. I think with the activity level of the game it's not even unreasonable to estimate up to 8m. What I don't know is the level of refund activity on steam, there should be quite a bit of refunding due to server issues. Probably not enough to reduce that number drastically.

As a reference, the average refund rate on Steam is around 10%.

Meaning, 10'% of the Steam sales of a a normal game with no meaningful issues get refunded.

In this case, the percentage should be way higher because many people had the login/matchmaking/rewards issues. Some of them said in their reviews that they refunded it and may buy it back when fixed.

But in any case, when companies announce game sales they don't substract from there the refunded copies to make the number more impactful PR-wise.

 

[anonpuffs]

As a reference, the average refund rate on Steam is around 10%.

Meaning, 10'% of the Steam sales of a a normal game with no meaningful issues get refunded.

In this case, the percentage should be way higher because many people had the login/matchmaking/rewards issues. Some of them said in their reviews that they refunded it and may buy it back when fixed.

But in any case, when companies announce game sales they don't substract from there the refunded copies to make the number more impactful PR-wise.

I believe the 10% refund rate is overall right? I believe the number would start off low and the refund rate rises over time as people who were unsure pick games up on steam sale, and many who were on the fence decide the game actually isn't for them and refund. We don't actually know what percentage of refunds are for launch games. But if it was actually 10% I guess I wouldn't be that surprised.

 

[Nix]

Yes. The thing is they released this one on PS+PC, not only in PS like the other ones.

They have 156,342 reviews on Steam, which with the x25 estimate method we have an estimation of around 3.9M units sold in Steam. The studio CEO said the split was around 50%-50% at least during the first days, so we'd be talking about an estimation of around 7.8M in Steam (not counting other PC stores)+PS.

But due to the server saturation issues that prevented people to play the game on proper conditions until yesterday, the percent of users who make a Steam review should be higher than usual. Meaning, I'd say around 6M is more realistic, maybe a bit higher because we saw sales in PS5 were apparently higher.

That is crazy, no one in their wildest dreams thought of this situation, even if the game loses popularity in the coming months it should have no problem maintaining more than a healthy player base.

 

[Gamernyc78]

That is crazy, no one in their wildest dreams thought of this situation, even if the game loses popularity in the coming months it should have no problem maintaining more than a healthy player base.

No one but I lol since day one have said it would surprise many

 

[Yurinka]

I believe the 10% refund rate is overall right? I believe the number would start off low and the refund rate rises over time as people who were unsure pick games up on steam sale, and many who were on the fence decide the game actually isn't for them and refund. We don't actually know what percentage of refunds are for launch games. But if it was actually 10% I guess I wouldn't be that surprised.

The 10% is a rough refund rate average for Steam games, in general. Both in the case of indie and in AAA games, both in long and in short games. Some games a bit lower, some a bit higher. That's for the normal, average decent game. If the game is perceived as pretty bad or has important issues, then it can go somewhere above 20%.

I know this because I have many friends as head of many indie studios and some big ones.

When estimating game sales and revenue, studios consider that whatever they'd sell in Steam (independently if it's for a month, a year or the full game cycle), around 10-15% will be refunded. In some studios who make humble short indies who don't have very good visuals, they estimate up to 18% or even 20%. They (we) really expect a smaller percent, but bump it for the estimates to be conservative and get less awful surprises.

In case of the typical SP indie games, most sales are made in the first few weeks, then around half of sales are made later, specially during big discounts. But the refunds keep being the same on average.

There's obviously the exception of having important issues that get fixed: a game like Helldivers 2 may have had a ton of negative reviews and refunds until yesterday because of the issues. Once these issues get fixed, the refund rate goes back to normality, some of the negative reviews got changed to positive ones, and the new users on average rate better the game.

 

[nongkris]

Need a full year before I buy in. At this point it’s just another flavor of the week.

Not to say the game is bad but the gaming community has the tendency to hype games up for a short while then ditch them when something new comes along.

These numbers are indeed promising though.

I agree with you about some games being the flavor of the week, I think Palworld fits that description. I have faith that with the updates Helldivers will keep a lot of people engaged.

 

[FatKaz]

 

[Gamernyc78]

Yeah tht was noted in the sales thread from the other day.

 

[FatKaz]

 

[Gamernyc78]

Yeah, was about to post this.

 

[Gamernyc78]

I knew tht 70/30 split was bs or even 60/40 first comment I made on that post!

 

[Gamernyc78]

 

[flaccidsnake]

I knew tht 70/30 split was bs or even 60/40 first comment I made on that post!

throughout europe

 

[Gamernyc78]

throughout europe

Yes I know it's just Europe I posted it on the other thread lol I still call bs cumulative. I doubt it's any diff in US. Debs were taking about worldwide when thy made their comments about splits

 

[Nix]

I do wonder if Sony would make it F2P once sales slow down to join giants like Fortnite and Apex, at the same time monetization is so good and the store cosmetics are much cheaper than other games that I'm not sure it would bring much more money.

 

[Dabaus]

HD2 can be the gift that keeps on giving as long as sony/arrowhead has a good content pipeline in the works. They can keep it going with discounts, promotions, add it to PS plus, then when it falls off, go free to play.

 

[Muddasar]

I do wonder if Sony would make it F2P once sales slow down to join giants like Fortnite and Apex, at the same time monetization is so good and the store cosmetics are much cheaper than other games that I'm not sure it would bring much more money.

I think they will eventually.

Looks like Sony is following the Destiny model.

 

[FatKaz]

I do wonder if Sony would make it F2P once sales slow down to join giants like Fortnite and Apex, at the same time monetization is so good and the store cosmetics are much cheaper than other games that I'm not sure it would bring much more money.

I think it will be paid > ps plus > f2p