So the biggest problems Concord has (in no particular order)...
1: A lot of mostly generic and unintentionally hilariously bad character designs intended for "modern audiences". Including a rotund blueberry sphere with tanned skin and girlish haircut in '90s Missy Elliot style clothes
2: Bad macro game mechanic in forcing players to play as characters they don't want just to get perks for characters they DO want to play
3: Long wait times between matches (probably due to lack of players)
4: Too much cooldown between phases in matches due to need of selecting other characters in rotation (since you can't keep playing as the same character for too long)
5: Opt-in voice chat
6: TTK being too long (could be a preference thing depending on the player however)
7: Muted color palette dominated by too many desaturated earth tones, combined with a lot of heavy tertiaries & "cool" color temperature (probably due to the '70s aesthetic)
8: Lack of conveyed personality in heroes at the selection screen (hard to give personality to a lot of generic character designs)
9: Nothing in grand scheme of gameplay loop that "pops" and stands out when compared to other hero shooters already on the market
That's a
lot of things going against the game. I'd bet on the whole concurrent play counts never broke past 35K, maybe 40K max, between PS5 and Steam, the former heavily carrying what players it did manage to get. Sales in the launch month probably won't be that much higher than 100K or 150K globally; I don't know what else releases in August but that may or may not be enough to crack the Top 10 and even 100K is a very optimistic read for what's been a very disappointing open beta.
IMO either SIE delay the game a year or so and revamp character designs while changing the meta, or they make an emergency switch to F2P with Day 1 in PS+, and give a lot of coupons and perks to people who already preordered the game (if not just refund them on preorders). Then release the game and if it shows life after a while worth investing in it later, fine. Otherwise, start preparing Firewalk into a support studio role for games like Helldivers 2, which could use the extra hands for making content and new game modes (but let Arrowhead retain creative control/lead).
Meanwhile, make the call right now to assess Fairgame$ and either shelve that while making Haven support for other studio projects, or work tirelessly to ensure that game avoids Concord's problems with character designs, certain gameplay loop issues, QOL oversights etc. As for Marathon, if that's truly going the hero shooter route, probably best to delay it again and take it on a different path. Last I heard it was meant to be an extraction shooter; outside of Tarkov that scene isn't really saturated at all IIRC, so why dump that for a hero shooter? Unless Marathon can do something very unique (i.e hero shooter + extraction shooter + a bit of MOBA), then don't pivot it that way.
Because honestly if Fairgame$ and Marathon also fail, and Helldivers 2 doesn't get the investments it needs, SIE should just eschew the GAAS plan altogether and focus on really doubling-down with what's proven their forte. Plenty of means to make non-GAAS AAA production more cost-effective, and a lot of room to bring back non-GAAS AA releases as well. SIE probably just don't want to lean hard in that direction because it'd require more analysis and planning than dumping out 12 GAAS titles :/.
