Former PlayStation head says we need to "get this platform war thing out of the way" and "get down to one standard home console"
- Thread starter Eternal_Wings
- Start date
Counted for what though? Even regulators separated the Switch from the proper home console market.
Nothing he said was wrong or illogical, people just don't want to hear it.
The console wars started with Sega advertising and it outlived itself. We're now at a point in time where there isn't much value in having PlayStation and Xbox on the market.
I saw many people in this thread say Xbox isn't dead, but it absolutely is. I think somehow people think as long as Xbox is selling 1 unit that it's not dead. The reality is that they aren't selling enough units to stay relevant. They'll continue "launching" exclusives on Xbox Series, because they do get SOME 3rd party royalties, but primarily because of GamePass, which won't survive without Xbox.
They're going to pivot in the next generation by selling a high end gaming PC with BC for past xbox games and access to GamePass and Xbox Live. They'll make money on the hardware, but lose the 3rd party royalties to companies like Steam. They'll do this because the 3rd party royalties are already shit. They'll publish their own games in the Xbox store so they don't have to pay the royalties to Steam. They'll also release their own handheld in the same vein.
Selling hardware at a loss and barely selling any software, doesn't have much value.
Meanwhile, Sony will also release their own handheld, but it won't play PC games, it'll play PlayStation games. They'll do this with hopes of increasing engagement and TAM, particularly in Japan/Asia writ large.
Sony's ultimate goal will be to make it more difficult for developers to ignore the PlayStation platform, because you'd be missing out on console and handheld sales. Meanwhile, they'll spend less money on exclusivity deals.
Sony is angling to become synonymous with gaming just as Netflix is synonymous with streaming and if they're successful, they'll be able to generate billions more in revenue and operating income. This applies to PC and Mobile too, especially when it comes to PS+.
If Sony could get to 100 million PS+ subscribers across console, handheld, mobile, and PC, even at the lowest tier is 80 dollars a year. That's 8 billion a year in revenue from just PS+, but with PS+ extra and premium, that probably brings things to 10 billion a year in revenue.
The roadmap for them is clear as day and the way you pay for all this is in low cost-low risk-high margin-high return endeavors like PC ports. If Sony plays its cards right, it can become self-sufficient in a post-platform market. The next 5 or so years is crucial for the future of SIE.
The console wars started with Sega advertising and it outlived itself. We're now at a point in time where there isn't much value in having PlayStation and Xbox on the market.
I saw many people in this thread say Xbox isn't dead, but it absolutely is. I think somehow people think as long as Xbox is selling 1 unit that it's not dead. The reality is that they aren't selling enough units to stay relevant. They'll continue "launching" exclusives on Xbox Series, because they do get SOME 3rd party royalties, but primarily because of GamePass, which won't survive without Xbox.
They're going to pivot in the next generation by selling a high end gaming PC with BC for past xbox games and access to GamePass and Xbox Live. They'll make money on the hardware, but lose the 3rd party royalties to companies like Steam. They'll do this because the 3rd party royalties are already shit. They'll publish their own games in the Xbox store so they don't have to pay the royalties to Steam. They'll also release their own handheld in the same vein.
Selling hardware at a loss and barely selling any software, doesn't have much value.
Meanwhile, Sony will also release their own handheld, but it won't play PC games, it'll play PlayStation games. They'll do this with hopes of increasing engagement and TAM, particularly in Japan/Asia writ large.
Sony's ultimate goal will be to make it more difficult for developers to ignore the PlayStation platform, because you'd be missing out on console and handheld sales. Meanwhile, they'll spend less money on exclusivity deals.
Sony is angling to become synonymous with gaming just as Netflix is synonymous with streaming and if they're successful, they'll be able to generate billions more in revenue and operating income. This applies to PC and Mobile too, especially when it comes to PS+.
If Sony could get to 100 million PS+ subscribers across console, handheld, mobile, and PC, even at the lowest tier is 80 dollars a year. That's 8 billion a year in revenue from just PS+, but with PS+ extra and premium, that probably brings things to 10 billion a year in revenue.
The roadmap for them is clear as day and the way you pay for all this is in low cost-low risk-high margin-high return endeavors like PC ports. If Sony plays its cards right, it can become self-sufficient in a post-platform market. The next 5 or so years is crucial for the future of SIE.
If the market does become post platform then Sony will have failed in a colossal way. They are the premium brand in gaming and they have 100+ million players locked in. If platforms collapse and everything is available everywhere then that would be a gigantic win for Sony's competitors.
Having their games or games store in more platforms doesn't mean that their platform collapses. It just means they make more money in more places.
They are #1 or #2 top grossing company in gaming revenue depending on how or when you measure, the other top one being Tencent.
They have record active userbase, revenue and profit and are growing all three while also expanding off-PS revenue channels.
I am so confused by this idea. It's like saying, 'stop trying to make better products.'
Okay, so when everyone has agreed the one console is a Windows box, Layden can head on over to Apple and all the Linux bods and say, 'enough with this OS war.'
Screw it. Why not make all our games in Roblox.
Okay, so when everyone has agreed the one console is a Windows box, Layden can head on over to Apple and all the Linux bods and say, 'enough with this OS war.'
Screw it. Why not make all our games in Roblox.
That's where I disagree with their strategy. They shouldn't be trying to expand off Playstation, they should have a singular focus on expanding Playstation.
But you could say the same for the 3DS or the Vita. Handhelds have always been a separate category.
OP
OP
I think it's never going to happen as Layden wishes to the industry to change. I think Xbox will be there, but not as console maker in the classic stance. Controller, accessories + likely a streaming box. However Sony and Nintendo will survive as console platform. Both will co-exist but they will compete more fierce (in Japan mainly) in some certain regions. Sony can easily obtain each Gen 100m sold consoles if thry stay loyal to their principals. Nintendo probably too (if they don't screw up totally as WiiU). But I also see more companies will do PC handhelds. Fo example I could see various tech companies like Samsung manufacture their own PC handheld like devices. People will still buy consoles such as me, who simply don't see the appeal in PCs.
You and Mibu are basically describing the Xbox vision from Phil that failed and killed them. More platforms, more stores, more users = more money. Sounds good in theory but the real world doesn't work that way.
Sony can pursue the same strategy if they wish (they already started) and it will end the same way. They will kill themselves in the long run just like their mentor Phil.
In a "post-platfrom" world, publishers don't need Sony at all. They can go directly to their customers.
No, the results of PS and Xbox are very different because their strategies are very different.
Xbox failed for other reasons, like having a too limited amount and worse first party content and 3rd party support, plus publishing all their first party games day one on a PC and in a game sub.
PS instead every year gets more exclusives than PC ports of old games, meaning every year its number of exclusives increases instead of decreasing. And they get ported or included in the game sub once the game pretty much completed its sales life cycle, when they already sold almost all the game could in the console.
Sony proved that since they started to expand to PC in 2019 their global and console specific metrics improved and most of them are breaking records.
Other than that, expanding to reach a bigger market to get more customers, revenue and profit is obviously good for a company. Specially when in a case like this one they must do it because of the rising costs of specially their AAA games force them to do it if they want to continue making them.
In a "post platform" publishers will continue wanting to publish their games in the stores/ecosystems where they and the top selling games make more money. And will continue being PSN (which in the future will also be on PC or mobile).
The only reason to be against it and wanting them to limit only to a single console is fanboyism.
AAA budgets are reaching over $300M budgets, needing to sell over 9M to be profitable of a non-GaaS. Next gen budgets will highly grow again, as happened every generation.
Meaning, if they limit to their console they must stop making their own or funding AAA SP games, at least those who aren't the few top supersellers.
Because even if limited to the few top supersellers, once one of them tanks or has to be cancelled would heavily hurt them.
To stop having these games would make their console and brand way less appealing. And well, their revenue/cash flow would highly decrease.
Why the hate for Shawn Layden here?
Dude worked for Sony for 30 years. He took part in all Playstation console generations up until the PS5. He's the guy who ultimately allowed God of War 2018 to exist in its current form, who let Guerrilla do Horizon Zero Dawn and brought Insomniac into the family after releasing Spider Man 2018.
If anything, it's Shawn Layden's final legacy that will be mighty hard to live up to, especially as all of Sony's major franchises after his departure have been partially sweet babied into shit writing.
Dude worked for Sony for 30 years. He took part in all Playstation console generations up until the PS5. He's the guy who ultimately allowed God of War 2018 to exist in its current form, who let Guerrilla do Horizon Zero Dawn and brought Insomniac into the family after releasing Spider Man 2018.
If anything, it's Shawn Layden's final legacy that will be mighty hard to live up to, especially as all of Sony's major franchises after his departure have been partially sweet babied into shit writing.
Sony is a gigantic company, it can easily handle developing a few AAA games each year. Games journalists are trying to gaslight everyone into believing that Playstation will collapse if Sony doesn't release games on other platforms and that's total bullshit. You fell for this gaslighting, I don't blame you since it's an organized scheme by the entire anti-Sony brigade.
Nah, I just believe the facts and common sense:
- Big AAA costs grow a lot every generation, this one is going >$300M and the next one may go >$500M unless they do something
- Only a few of their top selling blockbuster IPs achieve the around >9M unit sales needed to make profitable paid games that cost around $300M
- Add-ons GaaS/F2P revenue is replacing the revenue from game sales, so to get limited to paid SP game sales would be a suicide in the long term
- Companies need to keep their big games profitable to continue being sustainable, so they won't spend $300M-$500M on games that pretty likely won't generate that back with profits. Sony won't do a suicide strategy of losing billions per year like MS, they are on a market leading position where they can get big profits instead
- To keep them profitable they are growing their market expanding to more platforms and outside gaming, plus trying to find some solutions to keep the budgets smaller
- Other storefronts like Xbox, Epic, Google, Apple are expanding to multiple platforms combining PC, mobile and "consoles" (including here the ones that use PC or mobile based OS) allowing you to buy a game in a platform and playing it elsewhere. So I assume Sony very likely will end doing the same to keep their storefront as the most appealing one for the top 3rd party publishers
- PC and mobile are gaming markets bigger than PS and with relatively small overlap, so Sony has a lot of room to grow expanding there, specially when approaching some key markets like China, Korea, India etc.
- There are a handful game types super popular on Switch but not as popular in other platforms, so they could use it as secondary device to grow a new fanbase with these type of games, with the idea of later release Sony's own portable and move that fanbase there (and/or their home console)
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Please? This would be incredible if true. Gimme one format to play games on so I can stop buying every console that comes out. Because until that day comes I need to own most consoles and that's pricey
I would like it to be like movies and TV where I only need a good bluray player and I'm set til games get too demanding for said bluray player
Attributing everything to that one consulting firm gives them more power. They now have boogie man status because you guys won’t shut up about them.
If you can’t prove it don’t say it.
Technically the 'console wars' started with Atari & Intellivision, but it was popularized with SEGA of America specifically. SEGA of Japan & SEGA of Europe didn't do much of that (especially the former), and even so, Nintendo of America engaged in it as well alongside NEC and, again, Atari (with the Jaguar).
It's technically not dead until the product is no longer offered in the commercial consumer electronics market. Meaning, not until Microsoft stops manufacturing Xbox systems altogether. That hasn't happened yet and it doesn't seem like it'll be happening anytime soon, either.
Eventually Microsoft will stop with launch exclusives too because economically they do nothing for Xbox or even Game Pass. The money they'd make providing future games Day 1 on PlayStation & Nintendo alongside PC far outweighs the B2P sales revenue they'd get off the remaining Xbox console owners or whatever net profits Game Pass's current subscription rates are bringing in.
The cautionary tale, is that bad hardware sales don't have to be the driving force behind that type of change. Meaning, it's very possible SIE eventually stop with 1P games as "timed exclusives" on PlayStation and start putting everything Day 1 at least on PC. I somewhat feel PS5 Pro's market performance will play a big part in that decision either taking place or not taking place, but SIE will fail to reconcile the fact that their aggressive strategy of ports to PC would've been a contributing factor to (potential) lackluster PS5 Pro market performance to begin with.
It won't go down like this. Them trying to make their own games exclusive to the Xbox Store will just lose them all of their Steam customers; Steam gamers aren't going to migrate to an inferior storefront or one wholly unfamiliar to them where their friends aren't at. SIE would face this exact same problem on PC if they tried Day 1 PC locked to their own PS launcher like I've seen some suggest; in fact it'd be worst for SIE because they don't have major vested interests in PC that can cross over to gaming the way Microsoft does with DX12U, Windows etc (or the huge proliferation of Xbox controllers as the preferred controller for PC gamers who play on a pad).
Another thing is, Microsoft are going to find a way to partially resolve the 3P sales issue even if they put Steam on the next Xbox. It's actually as simple as tying Steam access to an active Game Pass subscription. The 2 TB Series X is probably a test for the price point they'll put their "top end" next Xbox at, with the selling points being: Steam access (via part of some Game Pass tier), whitelisted Windows apps (via MS/Windows Store, running extended Windows utilities in some protected layer alongside a modified Xbox OS), component modularity (upgradable RAM, SSD, custom-built low-profile GPU expansion etc.). That's probably the best way for them to handle a next-gen "high-end" device, while they also have the rumored handheld.
Maybe OEMs will be able to license the hardware for their own custom versions with some spec changes (think similar to 3P GPUs from MSI, Gigabyte etc. for Nvidia & AMD cards) and different UI frontend, extra USB/microSD etc. ports or what-have-you.
And to that, volume production for next-gen Xbox devices will be a lot lower than it's been for 360 or XBO in the past. I can definitely see ~ 2 or 3 million for a "console" and 2-3 million for a handheld (or maybe with adjustments to where just 4 million for both) annually. That's from Microsoft though; I dunno if OEMs would make variants and if so how that'd impact the numbers MS would manufacture.
They will probably use the general sales performance of Steam Decks as a guide, try extrapolating supply if Valve weren't capped by their production limits, and aim for something between that number and the lower end of what Xbox consoles are selling these days (which this year looks like it could be ~ 5 million or so).
If they're spending less on exclusivity deals, they'd better redirect those funds to more internally-developed 1P titles. Content differentiation (i.e exclusives) will never NOT be important; it is a big factor in other industries like TV/show streaming or even music services, so gaming would certainly not be exempt from this.
There's a right and wrong way to do everything. SIE won't reach that level if their multiplat strategy for PC & mobile (but specifically PC) cannibalizes their console to a notable degree among the dedicated hardcore & core console enthusiasts, especially the ones who usually buy within the first 1-2 years. If that number declines, it can have a cascading effect on later buy-in among some other gamers, and a more noticeable impact on software revenue & profit margins.
IMO Sony's current strategy with PC is creating some dangerous elements for the stability of retention among a select cluster of those dedicated hardcore & core console enthusiasts; PS5 Pro sales rates could be an early indication of that, we'll see. Continued trajectory with the strategy as-is or more aggressive pushes into multiplat for PC (Day 1 for all games, heavily shorter windows between console & PC for all or most games, etc.), or even too much an imbalance between GAAS and non-GAAS titles for the rest of the PS5 gen, could stress problems even more.
And, it'd be the next system (PS6) that would start to see the full brunt of those (IMO) errors. Of course "full brunt" is relative, and enough revenue & profit gain from remaining and new customer bases on platforms targeted for expansion can not only offset those losses, but completely wash over them while bringing in more revenue & profits than before. If that's what SIE is counting on, then we shouldn't act surprised if/when they do press into a more aggressive multiplat strategy going forward.
That assumes a few things, but in rough ballpark terms yes this could be possible.
You and I clearly have differing POVs on how SIE should best tackle that type of growth. I guess we'll see which theory was ultimately the correct one within 5 years, though I think we can start seeing signs of leaning one way vs another much sooner than that.
Lol I don't have to prove GoW Ragnarok's and Spider Man 2's writing was considerably worse than their predecessors, I finished all those games.
I don't need to prove sweet baby was involved in their writing either, they're mentioned in those games' credits and messing up with the writing is what they do.
Regardless, sweet baby isn't the only DEI-zation company out there but people have been using it as verb or expression for a while. Just like few people say "I'll look it up on a web search engine" instead of "I'll google it".
Yeah, have not played spiderman2 yet, despite getting it on launch
. But Ragnarok was a major drag, found it to be significantly lesser of a game than the reboot.