A lot of people are missing this.
Every trade comission that was going to bow down to MS already has done so.
Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard
- Thread starter Darth Vader
- Start date
Every trade comission that was going to bow down to MS already has done so.
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peter42O
Guest
I know that. I should have worded it differently so let me rephrase it. EU and UK will approve the acquisition with no restrictions. Because of this, Microsoft will close the acquisition and then file a federal lawsuit against the FTC. Rest remains the same.
That's a really bold prediction and I strongly doubt either the EC or CMA approve without a couple of concessions. What those end up being is anyone's guess.
Honestly, any limitations placed on MS WRT future acquisitions like a time limit between M&As, I feel would need to be applicable to all corporations engaging in M&As, scaled depending on the size of the acquisition and what acquisitions they've made cumulatively over some period of years. Would probably need to be codified into law, preferably with agreement among the large regulatory bodies (and applicable for M&As in any industry, not just gaming).
I feel like that's eventually going to be necessary, so that markets aren't rapidly consolidated just because companies have cash to buy and other companies want to sell out. Just as long as the terms are reasonable, I don't see any problem with it. For example, making sure there is a certain minimum of market valuation in the independent 3P publisher/developer gaming market maintained at all times. Or say if MS get approval for ABK, they can't buy another gaming publisher or developer with an average market valuation of at least $1 billion for the next five years, or a non-gaming company with an average market valuation of at least $10 billion for the next five years, and they're only allowed to buy a maximum of two non-gaming companies below $10 billion valuation (but no more than $10 billion combined) during those five years.
And that would just be for being allowed to make an acquisition play. The acquisition itself would still be subject to regulatory review as per normal. But it only works if it's applied to all corporations, and preferably agreed upon by the regulatory bodies (at least the major ones). Outside of that, what can Sony do? Well, I definitely see them buying more shares into companies like Square-Enix, Capcom, Konami etc. if they haven't already, and maybe companies like Ubisoft, Take Two and EA as well. They should probably consider acquiring Ember Lab & Sloclap, as well as Shift Up (Stellar Blade). Either invest into or acquire the team making DokeV. Buy further shares in Kadokawa and/or From Software if they become available. Buy shares in Koei-Tecmo.
The only publishers I could really see Sony wanting to acquire off the top of my head are Square-Enix, Capcom and Konami. Mainly between the first two, though. I think they would work some agreements out with Nintendo so that Nintendo still gets certain IP they've been used to getting, like Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest. Maybe even Nintendo gets publishing rights to a couple of PlayStation games they can port to Switch for the Japanese & select Asian markets. Honestly can't think of any Western publisher they would want to acquire outside of smaller ones like Annapurna or Devolver, who have a good range of content that could fill out AA-style content for PlayStation's 1P portfolio. It's either that or they buy some shares in bigger Western pubs like EA, Ubisoft, CDPR and Take Two.
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I think the largest possible concessions are either COD having to stay multiplatform or an agreement not to buy any more large publishers for awhile.
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From a very old article, if you think the european comission won't do shit.
FACTBOX-List of mergers blocked by the European Commission
EU antitrust regulators blocked Ryanair's third attempt to acquire Irish rival Aer Lingus on Wednesday, a ruling Europe's biggest low-cost airline called politically motivated and vowed to challenge in court.
www.reuters.com
The CMA here
CMA blocked record three M&A deals in past year
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) prohibited three merger & acquisition deals in 2021/22, the highest on record in a single year. The number of blocked deals in 2021/22 equates to 5.5% of all deals reviewed by the CMA that year, says Thomson Reuters.
Again, you think these entities are Texas. The CMA cancelled Giphy's acquisition, which was pretty much inconsequential. They are not fucking around with Microsoft. I know you want MS to consolidate more so you can claim they have great IP, but that's your pipe dream.
The largest concession would be divestiture of the Xbox division, forcing them to make it an independent company.
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peter42O
Guest
I don't care about claiming that they have great IP. What I do care about is that great IP going on Game Pass day one.
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People that think this acquisition is fair game have to get something in their heads:
Sony's market cap is ~$100B. If we consider revenue as a measure for a subsidiary's actual value, Playstation, which represents around 30% of their revenue, would have a market cap of 30B
Microsoft is trying to acquire a publisher for over DOUBLE that value.
Fair game my ass, and anybody cheering for this is not a gamer, they're someone that is desperate for MS to control the market because they can't take an L from their favourite company.
Sony's market cap is ~$100B. If we consider revenue as a measure for a subsidiary's actual value, Playstation, which represents around 30% of their revenue, would have a market cap of 30B
Microsoft is trying to acquire a publisher for over DOUBLE that value.
Fair game my ass, and anybody cheering for this is not a gamer, they're someone that is desperate for MS to control the market because they can't take an L from their favourite company.
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So you’d rather the industry become totally unsustainable because you’re too cheap to buy games?
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People want AAA bangers on gamepass, 1 every quarter (Microsoft dixit)
Each AAA game costs ~200M or more nowadays, especially if you have the crap management Xbox has.
That's 800M per year at the very least just on game costs, not counting smaller releases, thid party releases, etc. Something has to cave in.
What will happen is that games will either be riddled with bullshit pay to win microtransactions or they will have lowered standards of quality. But hey, they are free for the financial illiterate that think paying for a subscription service means the contents of said service are free.
This is why I'm against this push to make subscriptions the only "acceptable" way to deliver gaming content.
The fact that so many fanboys can’t see that it’s an unsustainable model is insanity. Especially the ones that think Phil saying Game Pass is “doing sustainable numbers” means that it is profitable.
If it was profitable, he’d say it was profitable. He’d be standing on the rooftops waving his dick screaming it at the top of his lungs.
What he meant was that it isn’t losing more money than daddy Satya is willing to burn at this moment in time.
Even if it was profitable for MS, it isn’t healthy for other publishers and developers, which is why the GP library is shrinking. It isn’t worth it to put your game on Game Pass.
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Don't you dare insulting Powerwash Simulator!
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peter42O
Guest
I will because it's true. But believe whatever you want.
The gaming industry will be just fine. Chances are that I buy more games and spend more money in a year than any individual here and preferring a subscription isn't going to change that because I know not every game will be day one on a subscription service.
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How are you unaware of the cognitive dissonance of "I spend a lot of money on games, but if they were on gamepass I'd spend a lot less" vs "the industry will be just fine if gamepass keeps growing"?
They are fundamentally opposing concepts. You can't take money out of the industry, and place a good majority of the money remaining in microsoft's pockets, and expect the industry to thrive. It just doesn't work that way. Look at the music industry now.
Subscriptions are not going away sadly, but I think just like whats happening in the other entertainment sectors we will find a happy medium. I think Sony and Nintendo are on the right track. Something that adds value but is an extra option for playing a variety of games for people who dont buy a lot of games.
I think similar to how HBO max has adjusted to the post covid era. Do a theatrical release, wait 45-90 days put it on direct ppv, rental apps like vudu, then after 30-45days put it on a streaming service.
Makes sense and basically helps get some of the money back they might have lost at box office. Since physical is gone and physical places to rent are gone, this tiered system I think can work out well.
I believe Sony and Nintendo have the right Idea. Although my faith in Nintendo to make market adjustments to what they offer probably wont happen anytime soon.
Sub services should be complimentary to a platform not its main attraction. I believe if the ABK deal goes through the good days for subscribers will be first couple years, but I believe as time goes on you are going to have issues keeping up month after month, year after year.
Netflix effect, people wont finish games, and if they have a year like 2022 which will happen as projects in the real world get delays, dont pan out ect, I think you are going to see some shifting happen to specific studios.
All this is a time thing.
