Hardcore adult Nintendo fans are as creepy as hardcore Trekkies.
[NPD] PS5 Sold More Than 620,000 Units in March, a New Record for PlayStation platform
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We have a manga thread as well
Branching out into different segments of entertainment has been a publicly stated goal for a long time.
But go on with your conspiracy about what, Mario, I'm guessing?
Xbox, Nintendo, man you guys think everyone is out to get you.
Hmm what Mario? What is that, colon medicine?We have a manga thread as well
Branching out into different segments of entertainment has been a publicly stated goal for a long time.
But go on with your conspiracy about what, Mario, I'm guessing?
Xbox, Nintendo, man you guys think everyone is out to get you.
Nobody's out to get anybody. This forum leans Sony, Reee is run by green rats, sales agers ran as far as they could to have a safe haven to discuss precious Nintendo sales on install base, and your estimates bias towards overestimating Xbox's sales numbers. These are all facts, nothing more.
PS5s in Japan are bought by the Chinese is salty conspiracy.
who cares lol, why does it bother you so much that people on another forum enjoy something you don't? ffs
Anybody that argues tooth and nail about the credibility of their estimates while simultaneously saying that they partially come from intuition cannot be taken seriously.
Is it hard to estimate Xbox numbers due to their obscure direct reporting? Absolutely. Should I take seriously someone that says it's down to data and intuition? No.
Is it hard to estimate Xbox numbers due to their obscure direct reporting? Absolutely. Should I take seriously someone that says it's down to data and intuition? No.
What do you think an estimate is? There will always be a degree of intuition that varies from person to person. Why do you think different institutions in the same field can come to different projections/predictions?
I've predicted many instances over the years when certain significant changes occured in NPD, like XBS outselling PS5 in June 2021, calling that XBS would set a new brand unit record in March 2022, and for February 2023 I actually predicted PS5 would set a new brand unit record.
"Should I take seriously someone that says it's down to data and intuition?"
Again, what do you think goes into deciding an estimate? All the data you have available plus your understanding of the market.
Let's just say MS doesn't get the benefit of any optimist estimations while they hide the numbers.
My estimate is that the numbers for the Xbox are dire and worse than anyone is guessing otherwise they would just make them public.
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There's a lot to unpack here, so I'll try and be as constructive as possible.
To get us started, estimates are based on a vast array of data points. You would normally use currently available data, historical data, and historical trends. This would get you on your way to get a decent enough estimate. Then, if you really want to go out of your way and depending on the market sector, you get surveys on consumers to help you fill in the gaps. These surveys need to have a big enough scope to provide you with a clearer picture and are obviously weighted against analytical data sources.
Estimates deviate based on
- Availability and trustworthiness of current data sources. Some data sources are more reliable, some are incomplete, some are more or less granular, etc;
- Availability and trustworthiness of historical data sources. Again, data is more or less reliable
- Any additional market surveys that may have been conducted and incorporated into the dataset
If the above didn't make it really clear how off-base you are, let me write a small TL;DR
- Different companies source some/all of their data from different sources.
- Market-oriented survey data is also collected by different agencies
- Any professional estimate provides how data was collected, and the period of data collection, and includes the objective criterion around any non-analytical data analysis and its weight.
Jesus. You do understand that the reason why different companies weigh certain data sets differently is because of factors built on prior history, leading to different analysts having different internal reasoning and deductions made? The entire point of having more than one analyst.
So like I said. My estimates are built off available public data and my understanding of the market, built on years of following the industry and trends.
For data that isn't entirely known or made clear by the above, such as the variance in SKU availability and ASP, there has to be some level of guesswork there. What I decide to go with is backed by what I see, but describing it like a hard fact is difficult, thus needing to make a decision that might not be completely right, like arguing over whether something is 70% or 80%. I pick 80%. That's intuition.
Attacking me for using intuition as only part of my analysis despite the fact I've been more right than wrong is ridiculous. Stop acting like I said I'm only using my gut, I never did. For years I built a reputation of following and analyzing trends in NPD using pure data, and as of 2022 I decided to go even deeper by trying to estimate out hardware units from revenue.
Guess what. For the most part, I was right.
This isn't some one off outlier, month after month after month my estimates for PS5 were reflective of what NPD reported. Xbox was only off by slightly larger amounts because of somewhat different ratios than I expected. Even then, I was still in the ball park, and could see when new records would be set despite not knowing how many units were actually being sold.
I'm one person, not an entire company. Even then, my logic leads me to similar conclusions as an entire firm such as Niko Partners regarding Xbox One and XBS.
So like I said. My estimates are built off available public data and my understanding of the market, built on years of following the industry and trends.
For data that isn't entirely known or made clear by the above, such as the variance in SKU availability and ASP, there has to be some level of guesswork there. What I decide to go with is backed by what I see, but describing it like a hard fact is difficult, thus needing to make a decision that might not be completely right, like arguing over whether something is 70% or 80%. I pick 80%. That's intuition.
Attacking me for using intuition as only part of my analysis despite the fact I've been more right than wrong is ridiculous. Stop acting like I said I'm only using my gut, I never did. For years I built a reputation of following and analyzing trends in NPD using pure data, and as of 2022 I decided to go even deeper by trying to estimate out hardware units from revenue.
Guess what. For the most part, I was right.
This isn't some one off outlier, month after month after month my estimates for PS5 were reflective of what NPD reported. Xbox was only off by slightly larger amounts because of somewhat different ratios than I expected. Even then, I was still in the ball park, and could see when new records would be set despite not knowing how many units were actually being sold.
I'm one person, not an entire company. Even then, my logic leads me to similar conclusions as an entire firm such as Niko Partners regarding Xbox One and XBS.
You're no more credibility than some scribbles i've written in a piece of paper.
Your logic is biased toward Xbox... that is very clear.
In a company you have several employess and even if all these employees have a bias they will end balancing each other... so they will reach a consensus where the bias ends being very small or even non existent.
You trend to overestimate Xbox and at the same time understimate PS5 that makes no sense.
Why?
PS5 has the more potential to sell and not Xbox... so when you think Xbox is selling more due your own biased reasons it is goints agains what the market, data and history tells you... so your forcing your hand to make the numbers better for Xbox.
I sait that to you since my first comments months ago but you keep spinning in wall texts that leads to nowhere.
It is funny that even InstallBase is starting to realize that
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I used my gut feeling to estimate that the Series console were going to flop and I was 100% correct.
I'd respect Welfare if he acknowledged his predictions have been biased in favour of Xbox.
As for me, intuition suggests that a company unwilling to share sales figures doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt that things are going swimmingly. It wasn't the case when Sony combined PlayStation consoles/handheld sales and it surely isn't the case now. Not knowing the real numbers, which is a refrain I hear often, doesn't give any estimate more credibility, but I certainly hold more stock in those that have Xbox at the low end.
As for me, intuition suggests that a company unwilling to share sales figures doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt that things are going swimmingly. It wasn't the case when Sony combined PlayStation consoles/handheld sales and it surely isn't the case now. Not knowing the real numbers, which is a refrain I hear often, doesn't give any estimate more credibility, but I certainly hold more stock in those that have Xbox at the low end.
People thinking that PS5s in Japan are bought by chinese people is disturbing.
I mean it was understandable at launch when people were scalping them for 3x retail, it would make sense to buy them and ship them overseas. but it doesn't make sense to be scalping in the past year or two because japanese stores implemented sales lotteries pretty early on, you can't really ensure a reliable supply to scalp like that. I don't know what's so offensive about them spinning that narrative though, it's clearly just a coping mechanism.
This is just one layer of complete b.s. we had yo go through since the launch of the xbone.